2017 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Conn]

Ironic to read the complaints about the difficulty of finding 3-4 players now, since the 3-4 kind of originally arose, like the ZBS, to take advantage of an inefficiency in the market that certain teams spotted. We all know from Shanahan's time here that when he first started using a ZBS, the smaller, quicker OL used to fall in the draft as they didn't fit most teams. Similarly, the 3-4 gave a very important job to fast tweener edge rushers who didn't have the size to be 4-3 DE's, and big fatties who couldn't penetrate or move laterally as 4-3 DTs, players who traditionally fell and could be scooped up at great value for the minority of teams that ran a 3-4.

 

Then the passing game took over the NFL, the 3-4 was seen as a way to combat that, and that market inefficiency no longer exists. This was already the case when Shanahan became obsessed with switching his next team to the 3-4, and it's even worse now. Because almost the entire NFL is hybrid and multiple on defense now, these role players are valued highly almost across the board.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

Then the passing game took over the NFL, the 3-4 was seen as a way to combat that, and that market inefficiency no longer exists. This was already the case when Shanahan became obsessed with switching his next team to the 3-4, and it's even worse now. Because almost the entire NFL is hybrid and multiple on defense now, these role players are valued highly almost across the board.

 

I'd love to see what a 3-4 looks like here with the key cog in the wheel.  The NT is supposed to be the linchpin of a 3-4.  The guy in the middle that plugs the middle lane and occupies the center and the guard.  That player is supposed to make it easier for the ends but especially for the middle linebackers who don't have to worry much about being engulfed by guards and can shoot through the gaps when needed.  But the NT has oddly been the afterthought.

 

If I had to do just two things it would be get a real NT and add a speed rusher to the mix.   The typical good 3-4 defense has both components.  But I do think the larger problem hasn't been scheme but lack of difference makers up front, too many JAGs.  

[Koolblue13]

If you have a stud at Nose, edge and middle, you can hold your own.

[SkinsPassion4Life]

40 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Two different points though in play.

 

1.  We are also speculating on what the team will do.  Forget our opinion of what they should do.  And in that conversation if they are meeting with players multiple times they are an option versus not being options.  That was my key point.

 

2.  As for your other point.  If I recall it was you or if not someone else debated Solomon Thomas the same way, that he's not an option for a 3-4.   Some scouts disagreed on that point.  Some scouts apparently disagree with you on Barnett, too.    It's not IMO a slam dunk get out of here, no way type of an opinion that these guys are misfits for 3-4 defenses. 

 

My take on the D line isn't that we got good guys but just wrong fits.   We just have a lack of talent period.   We don't have push up the middle.  We don't have speed on the edges.   We can't stop the run.  It's a mess and driven by lack of talent. 

 

Kerrigan was a DE who converted fine to OLB.  Murphy took awhile but ditto.  They aren't IMO the problem.  The only misfits in my book is who we put out there at NT.   The problem IMO is a lack of a speed rusher in that mix and consistent pressure.  I don't think that would change whether Kerrigan rushed standing up or with his hand in the ground.    I don't mind an undersized DT playing on the inside on third down.  And playing some end against the run on first down.   

 

Are either players my top choice at #17?  No.  But I don't think they fall in the category of not an option. 

 

My top guy at the moment is Reddick.  I liked McKinley until the shoulder surgery -- I just doubt they'd go with a guy who is iffy to start the season after what happened with Doctson last season.  I like Baker but hard for me to see them going with a nickel corner in the first round.   If they think Taco could put on another 10 pounds and play 5 technique I wouldn't hate that pick.  I go back and forth on Barnett. I don't love his lack of speed.  The one thing that gets my attention about him is some say he can be really special, outsmarts defenders, overpowers them, great use of hands.   If they see him as distinct improvement over lets say Murphy then why not?  You can put 3 to 4 pass rushers on the same field at a time -- especially 3rd and long where we've stunk.  The Giants went to a Superbowl in part with that approach.  

 

 

 

I get what you're saying....I think Barnett and Taco are better than Brantley, but I'd rather have Brantley on this team.

 

But I've been saying for the past month....Foster, Reddick, McCaffrey, OJ Howard....that's my wish list at 17...if none are on the board and we can't trade down; then Budda Baker.

 

I would rather not draft a pure edge rusher in the first 3 rounds anyway....would prefer a versatile/hybrid type LB...Reddick, Watt..maybe Ryan Anderson.

[RandyHolt]

I guess I fail to understand how a NT on the field for ~ 25% of our plays makes us able to hold our own.  Maybe for those 25, but what about the other 75%, as he trots off the field. Or, do we envision after finally finding that elusive nose, that he will be an all down player? Will our preferred 4-2-5 then best utilize that nose?  It seems like an awful lot of projecting. And hoping, based on our luck thus far.

 

Lineman take an awful lot of abuse. I foresee needing a capable backup, as well.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

I guess I fail to understand how a NT on the field for ~ 25% of our plays makes us able to hold our own.  Maybe for those 25, but what about the other 75%, as he trots off the field. Or, do we envision after finally finding that elusive nose, that he will be an all down player? Will our preferred 4-2-5 then best utilize that nose?  It seems like an awful lot of projecting. And hoping, based on our luck thus far.

 

Lineman take an awful lot of abuse. I foresee needing a capable backup, as well.

Because if a team is facing 3rd and long, because they cant run it or the interior is crashing on pass plays, it allows you to attack.

[Morneblade]

55 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I guess I fail to understand how a NT on the field for ~ 25% of our plays makes us able to hold our own.  Maybe for those 25, but what about the other 75%, as he trots off the field. Or, do we envision after finally finding that elusive nose, that he will be an all down player? Will our preferred 4-2-5 then best utilize that nose?  It seems like an awful lot of projecting. And hoping, based on our luck thus far.

 

Lineman take an awful lot of abuse. I foresee needing a capable backup, as well.

 

The difference between 2nd and 9 and 2nd and 4.

The difference between 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 1.

 

The difference in dictating down and distance, and having it dictated to you.

The difference in getting a team out of there running gameplan, and making them one dimensional.

 

And then there is this. If you're not going to bother with a NT, because you "only" run it ~30% of the time, but every other position in the front 7 were drafted/brought in to play 3-4, you don't have guys that work well in a 4-3. So why even bother? Get a MBL, WILL and SAM. Get a strong side DE, a  weak side DE and a couple DT's and call it a day.

[nemocystem]

Here's where I'm at, as we stroll into April.

 

Most likely to be available/selected at 17:

 

Peppers

McCaffrey

Melifonwu

Corey Davis (least likely to be available)

John Ross

McDowell

Reddick

Howard (doubtful he gets to 17)

Cook

 

Of this group, my favorites are:

 

McCaffrey

Ross

Peppers

Melifonwu

 

Any of these, & i am a happy camper.  My emphasis here is versatility, with the exception of Ross, who just fits a vacancy of speed on our offense.  All of these guys can/will contribute on STs, & play multiple positions.  Obi is intriguing as a CB prospect with perhaps a slow progression towards FS.  

 

I love McDowell's tape, but his questions scare me off of him at 17.  Cook is probably a better RB than McCaffrey, but i can't get past his fumbling issues enough to pull the trigger at 17.  Both guys i would be ok with...but a bit apprehensive.  

 

For the 2nd round, i am pretty locked in on Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, Adoree Jackson, Zach Cunningham, Carlos Watkins, or Cooper Kupp as my favorites...but there's a lot of time, & a lot can happen. 

 

This is just where I'm at, today.

[Koolblue13]

Cunningham in the second would be pretty lucky.

[RandyHolt]

7 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

The difference between 2nd and 9 and 2nd and 4.

The difference between 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 1.

 

..

Yep, it sounds like a lot of projecting / hoping.  I know you are trying to make a point but no single player can account for those differences. 

 

Our search for a nose has taken so long, I have become skeptical that we will land one, and that our defense can be shaped around him enough to warrant the wait. I am also not convinced that studs like Kerrigan or Smith are better players being forced to lose weight for that one play a game we slip them into pass coverage. The look over matched on run plays in our preferred 4-2 front.

[Conn]

Preston Smith is a "stud" now? Man we just throw that word around nowadays. 

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Preston Smith is a "stud" now? Man we just throw that word around nowadays. 

I don't know why he even gets put ahead of Murphy. 

[Chump Bailey]

7 hours ago, nemocystem said:

Most likely to be available/selected at 17:

Melifonwu

 

 

I am mostly in agreement with your post except here. I personally would opt for Baker, King, Tre'Davius White or Conley much more than Obi. 

[SkinsPassion4Life]

I like Peppers, but would prefer Budda...he can play FS and slot Corner.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, SkinsPassion4Life said:

I like Peppers, but would prefer Budda...he can play FS and slot Corner.

Same here. Be great to get him.

 

Baker, Cunningham, then 2 of the DT/NTs around there and some CB&S later on, with a TE and G thrown I'm?

 

I'm happy.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

I guess I fail to understand how a NT on the field for ~ 25% of our plays makes us able to hold our own.  Maybe for those 25, but what about the other 75%, as he trots off the field. Or, do we envision after finally finding that elusive nose, that he will be an all down player? Will our preferred 4-2-5 then best utilize that nose?  It seems like an awful lot of projecting. And hoping, based on our luck thus far.

 

Lineman take an awful lot of abuse. I foresee needing a capable backup, as well.

 

I get the vibe that Manusky is going to use the interior of his D line to be run stuffers whether playing 3-4 or 4-3.  The Giants play 4-3 but stuff the run up the middle with Harrison and Hankins.  They are a tough run defense because Vernon and Pierre-Paul are also good against the run.  I am guessing Manusky envisions something similar. 

 

Mark Bullock from the WP when studying the Colt's defense under Manusky said he saw it primarily as a 2 gap scheme.  I see some gave him a hard time for that saying he's wrong and that Manusky is aggressive so he's a 1 gap guy.  I think 1 gap has become the definition of aggressive to some in part because of how Barry hyped it up.  But listening to Manusky and watching his FA signings, I am not so sure he's a pure 1 gap guy.    And there are different ways to run an aggressive scheme.

 

In Manusky's recent interview, Sheehan questioned him about getting a DE who can put pressure.  Manusky responded they are a rare find, and asked Sheehan to name those type of players in the NFL.  And at different points in that conversation and the prior one on 980, he talked about pressure coming from the edges.  He emphasized stopping the run a lot.  And I recall someone dissected his defense where they saw similarities to Zimmer's scheme in Minny where they used the middle linebackers some on blitzes.

 

So my theory is he wants a stout D line against the run first and foremost and rely on more pressure come from the edges and corner blitzes and linebacker blitzes up the middle.  

 

That's part of my reason why I think its between Reddick, McDowell or Brantley at #17 unless they are in love with a corner.   Reddick to me seems like a perfect fit.  You can move him around like they tried to do with Cravens last year.   But he'd be a much better fit for a role like that.    You can move him to the edge.  You can rush him from the middle.  McDowell to me would be the next one and perhaps the more likely pick, considering talent wise he can both stuff the run and bring pressure.  And, Manusky said interior guys who can bring heat are rare finds.  I think McDowell will be way tempting.  

[crabbypatty]

I think if Reddick is there at 17, he's definitely the pick, barring someone projected to go top 10 falling (Allen, Fournette, Barnett) which ain't too likely.

 

If Reddick isn't there I can see edge in round 1, or a highly rated CB. I think they'll wait for DL until the 3rd and 4th round, to get those "run stuffers"

 

[CTskin]

Just please no to Dalvin Cook. It baffles me that some want to use a 1st rounder on a player whose case of fumblitis makes Matt Jones look like he has vice grip hands. Fat Rob fits our scheme very well with good vision and good cutting ability; any attempt at upgrading RB can wait. Sign me up for Mixon in the 3rd if possible, but I doubt he'd still be on the board then. 

 

I'll be ecstatic if we land a NT/ILB/FS/CB/G in any of the first four rounds. We're not in luxury pick mode right now, we need to use every pick to upgrade a weakness or trade back.

[Dark Acre]

15 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Ironic to read the complaints about the difficulty of finding 3-4 players now, since the 3-4 kind of originally arose, like the ZBS, to take advantage of an inefficiency in the market that certain teams spotted.  [ ]

Then the passing game took over the NFL, the 3-4 was seen as a way to combat that, and that market inefficiency no longer exists. This was already the case when Shanahan became obsessed with switching his next team to the 3-4, and it's even worse now. Because almost the entire NFL is hybrid and multiple on defense now, these role players are valued highly almost across the board.

Good analysis.  The market inefficiency does exist, but it's been inverted.

4 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I don't know why he even gets put ahead of Murphy. 

Well, for one thing, he's allowed to play the first 4 games of the season....  But yeah.  I wish we'd go to a 4-3(-4) or a 4-2-5, have Murphy get his iron and protein at the butcher shop, get him up around 290, and make him a DE. 

[RandyHolt]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get the vibe that Manusky is going to use the interior of his D line to be run stuffers whether playing 3-4 or 4-3.  The Giants play 4-3 but stuff the run up the middle with Harrison and Hankins.  They are a tough run defense because Vernon and Pierre-Paul are also good against the run.  I am guessing Manusky envisions something similar. 

....

Nice in depth post - thanks!  I don't have much to add on potential picks and trust your judgement there.

 

But I would like to see our OLBs bulk up to be better run stoppers. I am not convinced 1 guy is going to be an all world difference maker. Let the OLBs play at their college weight at DE. For if we get a proper plug up the middle, OCs are just going to run at Kerrigan and Smith et al, who just seem to run right by the ball carrier anyways. I theorize, because they will likely get blown up taking the firing T straight on.

 

I am still not sold on our hybrid... so many uncertainties with players seemingly not as often used to their strengths vs more traditional approaches. And I propose our hybrid be renamed the 3.5-3.5.

[Dexter]

10 hours ago, nemocystem said:

Here's where I'm at, as we stroll into April.

 

Most likely to be available/selected at 17:

 

Peppers

McCaffrey

Melifonwu

Corey Davis (least likely to be available)

John Ross

McDowell

Reddick

Howard (doubtful he gets to 17)

Cook

 

Of this group, my favorites are:

 

McCaffrey

Ross

Peppers

Melifonwu

 

Any of these, & i am a happy camper.  My emphasis here is versatility, with the exception of Ross, who just fits a vacancy of speed on our offense.  All of these guys can/will contribute on STs, & play multiple positions.  Obi is intriguing as a CB prospect with perhaps a slow progression towards FS.  

 

I love McDowell's tape, but his questions scare me off of him at 17.  Cook is probably a better RB than McCaffrey, but i can't get past his fumbling issues enough to pull the trigger at 17.  Both guys i would be ok with...but a bit apprehensive.  

 

For the 2nd round, i am pretty locked in on Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, Adoree Jackson, Zach Cunningham, Carlos Watkins, or Cooper Kupp as my favorites...but there's a lot of time, & a lot can happen. 

 

This is just where I'm at, today.

Honestly, out of that group I would only be sold on McDowell.  I think his talent and motor is off the charts....we have the line coach to get him more consistent.

 

But I love Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, he is a baller and Zach Cunningham would be great, but I doubt he falls to us in the second.  As far as the RBs in this draft, McCaffrey is the best RB he just doesn't have the burst like Cook, but Joe Mixon is the full package, 20 years old and seems like he has his head on straight.

 

This is my ideal draft, hopefully it works out for us:

 

1st:   Malik McDowell  DE  Michigan St.

2nd:  Budda Baker  S  Washington

3rd:  Joe Mixon  RB  Oklahoma

4th:  Jarran Jones  DT  Notre Dame

4th:  Blair Brown  ILB  Ohio

5th:  Ryan Glasgow  DT  Michigan

6th:  Jerod Evans  QB  Va Tech

6th:  Avante Collins  OT  TCU

7th:  De'Veon Smith  RB  Michigan

7th:  Jermaine Eluemunor  OG  Texas A&M

[Morneblade]

7 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Yep, it sounds like a lot of projecting / hoping.  I know you are trying to make a point but no single player can account for those differences. 

 

Our search for a nose has taken so long, I have become skeptical that we will land one, and that our defense can be shaped around him enough to warrant the wait. I am also not convinced that studs like Kerrigan or Smith are better players being forced to lose weight for that one play a game we slip them into pass coverage. The look over matched on run plays in our preferred 4-2 front.

 

Our search for NT was been non-exsistent. It's mostly just converting 4-3 DT and saying, go play nose, HA! It's started with Haynesworth, and he didn't want to do it. We've bargin shopped and not surprisingly, got nothing to show for it. Oh, Kerrigan and Smith are each within 3 pounds of their playing weight in college. Smith was 271, he's now 268. Kerrigan was 268 and is now 265. That's not going to help. Also, 3-4 OLB drop into cover A LOT more than one time per game.

 

1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

Nice in depth post - thanks!  I don't have much to add on potential picks and trust your judgement there.

 

But I would like to see our OLBs bulk up to be better run stoppers. I am not convinced 1 guy is going to be an all world difference maker. Let the OLBs play at their college weight at DE. For if we get a proper plug up the middle, OCs are just going to run at Kerrigan and Smith et al, who just seem to run right by the ball carrier anyways. I theorize, because they will likely get blown up taking the firing T straight on.

 

I am still not sold on our hybrid... so many uncertainties with players seemingly not as often used to their strengths vs more traditional approaches. And I propose our hybrid be renamed the 3.5-3.5.

 

See the above about weight. As with the last part, I completely agree with you. Trying to be a hybrid is not only making a square peg fit into a square hole, but into a round one. At best, you get something that doesn't fit very well into either.

[Koolblue13]

If haynesworth played nose in the Wade 3- 4 a la Ratliff, he could have gone down as the greatest of all time.

[Morneblade]

18 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

If haynesworth played nose in the Wade 3- 4 a la Ratliff, he could have gone down as the greatest of all time.

 

Unless he decided to play nose like he played for us.

[nemocystem]

I'm thinking we grab a true NT in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Adams, or Vanderdoes...or a couple of others will be there.

 

Agreed that Cunningham wpuld be a stretch for 49, & i like him enough at 17...but my comment is more of a projection on what i think will happen, as opposed to what i want to happen.

 

I love Baker too...but i see him as duplication to an extent, with the lack of all around talent that Peppers or Melifonwu possess.  Baker is a better player at a specific position than either are today...but STs, & length factor in tp what this FO is gearing towards....if I'm reading tea leaves.

 

Tbh........i relly want Zach/Jackson/Watkins

 

1, 2, 3.  That would be my favorite scenario through 3.

7 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I am mostly in agreement with your post except here. I personally would opt for Baker, King, Tre'Davius White or Conley much more than Obi. 

I like White...will be gone.  See: my comments on Baker.  

 

I also love Conley...i think i posted earlier on this thread that when i started looking through tape of the OSU guys, Conley popped up on tape more than anyone, followed by Raekwon McMillan.  In fact...if we skip ILB in the 1st, & Zach is gone by 49...i would be very happy with Raekwon as the pick.