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Lindy's Sports: 2016 Redskins will finish 4th in NFC East


Boss_Hogg

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The same Brian McNally that's the beat reporter for the Washington Times & formally of 106.7?

That guy? If so, it explains all of it. :)

 

I knew McNally, he's been spending too much time up in Baltimore lately.

 

But who the **** is Lindy?

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I can't help but consider the NFC East as being one big question-mark. All 4 teams (including the 'Skins!) have questions to be answered before anyone gets a clue on who emerges on top of the NFC East.

My guess is the division will be much more tightly contested than anyone suspected.

However, my hope is that the Skins are able answer their questions -- (1) Is Kirk bona fide?; (2) Can the Skins RBs and O-line make the running game a weapon again?; (3) Is the interior of the Skins defensive front seven able to stop opponents' running attacks? -- in a way that they're the NFC-East team emerging on top.

well cross #1 off your list...you know he is...the other two question I understand completely...I would, being devil's advocate,  say that our O line was running the ball very well in the first 2 games...we were running the ball against opposing teams very effectively....(Miami..Alf got a hundred...right?...and Myami had one of the most respected Dlines going into 2015...and then in week two..Jones had over a 100yrds...against the top 1-3 Dlines, the Rams...)..and then early in the 3rd game Lauvao gets hurt,,,.and nothing after week 3ish ..and Lauvao will be back better than ever...

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I knew McNally, he's been spending too much time up in Baltimore lately.

 

But who the **** is Lindy?

 

Wasn't he the first person to fly a plane across the Atlantic Ocean?

 

With these predictions, he should stick to aviation. He is probably too old and senile to have a grasp on NFL forecasts, anyway. ;) 

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You make great points. I suppose I am waffling between my firm belief that McGloughan has truly changed this roster and culture for the positive and I know in my heart that this team is on the rise...but then I look at the schedule this year and I also look back and realize that this team did not beat a team with a winning record and I'm stumped as to what to really expect from this team this year. Which brings me back to the Vegas line of 7.5 wins. I guess I'd play the over pretty confidently, but if this team, playing this schedule, wins more than 10 games this year I will be super impressed. Equally, if this team, for all the gains I am assuming they have made since last year (Cousins with a full year as QB1, the solid draft picks from last year maturing, the rookies this year contributing and nabbing Norman in FA) fail to get to 8 wins, I will be equally disappointed.

 

The thing is, when the Redskins faced a lot of those teams with winning records in the middle of the season (like the Jets and the Patriots), that is when they were at the apex of their injury woes.

 

When they played the Jets, nearly half the starters were out. The entire left side of the o-line was out (including anchor Trent Williams), D. Jackson was out. Jordan Reed was out. Matt Jones, I believe, was out. On defense, I think Kerrigan missed that game. As well as Knighton, and most of our starting secondary was out. I believe that was the game where the team had so many injured players out, they couldn't fit them all on the inactive list (I believe Griffin was left active that week just to accommodate all the injured players).

 

And the Redskins STILL were leading at halftime. :) I believe they lost that game because they couldn't rotate in fresh players because of all the injuries and they just wore down.

 

They got Jackson back for the Patriots, but he hadn't played in weeks, and clearly wasn't up to full speed, and they were still dealing with A LOT of injuries.

 

They lost to the Panthers as well, but NOBODY was beating the Panthers last year. They were on a undefeated roll, and finished 15-1.

 

I'm not bothered by the "they didn't beat anyone with a winning record" mantra the sports media is using as an excuse to dump on the Redskins and prop up the Cowboys. If the Redskins can stay healthy this season, I believe we will see different, and much better, results. :)

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Wasn't he the first person to fly a plane across the Atlantic Ocean?

 

With these predictions, he should stick to aviation. He is probably too old and senile to have a grasp on NFL forecasts, anyway. ;)

 

Ah!  Probably why he has the Eagles #2... nice pull

 

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The thing is, when the Redskins faced a lot of those teams with winning records in the middle of the season (like the Jets and the Patriots), that is when they were at the apex of their injury woes.

 

When they played the Jets, nearly half the starters were out. The entire left side of the o-line was out (including anchor Trent Williams), D. Jackson was out. Jordan Reed was out. Matt Jones, I believe, was out. On defense, I think Kerrigan missed that game. As well as Knighton, and most of our starting secondary was out. I believe that was the game where the team had so many injured players out, they couldn't fit them all on the inactive list (I believe Griffin was left active that week just to accommodate all the injured players).

 

And the Redskins STILL were leading at halftime. :) I believe they lost that game because they couldn't rotate in fresh players because of all the injuries and they just wore down.

 

They got Jackson back for the Patriots, but he hadn't played in weeks, and clearly wasn't up to full speed, and they were still dealing with A LOT of injuries.

 

They lost to the Panthers as well, but NOBODY was beating the Panthers last year. They were on a undefeated roll, and finished 15-1.

 

I'm not bothered by the "they didn't beat anyone with a winning record" mantra the sports media is using as an excuse to dump on the Redskins and prop up the Cowboys. If the Redskins can stay healthy this season, I believe we will see different, and much better, results. :)

 

 

This is exactly why I kep pointing out that our schedule coming up this year is not the "back-breaking" tough schedule people keep saying it is. We play quite a few of the same teams and outside a few games, we were in most of them, even had a late lead in them, like the Jets, like Atl. And we did that with a bunch of injuries.

 

What I find hilarious is that all they talk about is how awesome dallast will be with romoSUCKS back, yet they completely ignore we had so many injuries - 4th most in the NFL! If we just get half the guys back from injury this will be a better team. Then add Norman, Bruton and the draft class, and this team could really compete. That schedule does not scare me in terms of who we play. Now they did screw us by scheduling 5 short weeks, but that's a different conversation.

 

As a few others said, I hope they are posting this **** on the locker room walls! I can only help to motivate them.

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it all comes down to KC.  For the first 8 games, this offense was anemic because of the injuries and conservative play calling to help him get up to speed.  This year he is there, he will have all the reps in camp and preseason and hopefully we will not have any injuries to are most important players (like anyone on OL, WR and TE).  In addition I don't understand why people think just because a team was stellar the year before they will be again. Take the Panthers for example, I have a funny feeling they will come down to earth this year.  No not because Norman left but because Newton can't continue to play the way he has been playing without risking injury.  And if you shut him down or slow him down we saw what happened in the SB.

 

The cowboys will need to prove they are a team, I mean yea they lost romoSUCKS last year but to go and crash the way they did to me it means their coaching staff sucks (can't adjust to save their life) and the rest of the team can't be all that.

 

The other two team have brand new HCs and staffs, it takes time for things to come together.  We are the only team without issues IMO in this division, it is foolish for media idiots to think otherwise.

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The thing is, when the Redskins faced a lot of those teams with winning records in the middle of the season (like the Jets and the Patriots), that is when they were at the apex of their injury woes.

 

When they played the Jets, nearly half the starters were out. The entire left side of the o-line was out (including anchor Trent Williams), D. Jackson was out. Jordan Reed was out. Matt Jones, I believe, was out. On defense, I think Kerrigan missed that game. As well as Knighton, and most of our starting secondary was out. I believe that was the game where the team had so many injured players out, they couldn't fit them all on the inactive list (I believe Griffin was left active that week just to accommodate all the injured players).

 

And the Redskins STILL were leading at halftime. :) I believe they lost that game because they couldn't rotate in fresh players because of all the injuries and they just wore down.

 

They got Jackson back for the Patriots, but he hadn't played in weeks, and clearly wasn't up to full speed, and they were still dealing with A LOT of injuries.

 

They lost to the Panthers as well, but NOBODY was beating the Panthers last year. They were on a undefeated roll, and finished 15-1.

 

I'm not bothered by the "they didn't beat anyone with a winning record" mantra the sports media is using as an excuse to dump on the Redskins and prop up the Cowboys. If the Redskins can stay healthy this season, I believe we will see different, and much better, results. :)

 

Yeah there's something like that.

Add to this that we had to face something like what 8 teams that had more times to prepare than us. That we faced 4 undefeated teams at the time we met them (Falcons, Jets, Patriots, Panthers), not counting first week or two obivously...

 

And in all those games, we only didn't show up against the Patriots, and Panthers got away with a blown out call early in the game that would have put us on top.

 

And infamous Joe Barry was doing this with guys off the street, cast offs from other teams, while Scott was looking for an eight or ninth TE to add to the team because Sean McVay was playing with Compton has blocking TE.

 

Jay Gruden, and his staff deserved COTY for what they've done with much less than every one else.

 

In addition I don't understand why people think just because a team was stellar the year before they will be again. Take the Panthers for example, I have a funny feeling they will come down to earth this year. No not because Norman left but because Newton can't continue to play the way he has been playing without risking injury. And if you shut him down or slow him down we saw what happened in the SB.

Completly agree on this part. I've been saying it, Panthers are much likely to end with a 10-6 record or something, if Cam remains healthy. There's no way they repeat 15-1.

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See I'm not looking @ Kirk so much as the O line. Last season you had young'uns manning the right side, took time to get 'em right n tight. The left side missed Lauvao badly, lost the starting center (and the run game), is it really that surprising it took a while to start clicking? Factor in a healthy season, new recruits, another year under Callahan and voila! **** starts to happen for us. I'm in the camp that still believes it all runs through the line play, fix that and everything else gets better.

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I love how the Cowboys always get the benefit of the doubt ..... And mostly bit is because they are the mother ****ing Cowboys damnit .... Or as my three year old daughter would put it ... Coz yeah ...

 

It's amazing what winning 2 playoff games in 20 years will give a team. Homers gonna homer.

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 If the Redskins can stay healthy this season, I believe we will see different, and much better, results. :)

 

Totally agree with this. However, when predictions are made, taking into account the fact that injuries do happen to all teams makes sense. For the most part, the teams with the fewest injuries (especially to key players) are usually the ones heading to the playoffs that year.

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I think the Skins should sweep Philly and split with the Cowboys and Giants, leaving them 4-2 in the division and needing 4 additional wins in the other 10 games to get above 7.5.  Cleveland should be a win. We beat Chicago in their place last season (albeit in a tight game). Who knows how Detroit will be without Megatron (not that they were anything great WITH him).  Other games will be tough (Baltimore should return to decent form), but a lot of them are at home, where we finally had a solid HFA in 2015.  I feel pretty confident this team can go at least .500, although do agree that they might actually finish with the same record and miss the playoffs.

 

From what you wrote, it seems that we pretty much agree.  Neither one of us is predicting the Skins to fall off the table, and both of us think around 8 wins is realistic.  That means a over/under number of 7.5 is reasonable.

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How can you say that the Redskins had an "easy, last place schedule" last season, when we faced teams like the Panthers and the Patriots?

 

As far as the Cowboys having a "cushy, last place schedule", Dallas plays the exact same teams the Redskins play with the exception of two games. Their road will be no easier than ours was last season. 

 

Your post makes you sound like the usual assortment of short-sighted fools in the sports media who are making excuses for the Redskins' success last season (romoSUCKS was hurt, the Giants couldn't get out of their own way, all the other teams except the Redskins were suffering terrible injuries, blah, blah, blah). That is your prerogative. However, I'd rather believe the Redskins are building something special in Washington. As Scott said, the team may not be there yet, but it is headed in the right direction. That is the reason for our success, and not just a bunch of dumb luck.

 

I may be a short-sighted fool, but I don't recall saying the Skins' 2015 success was the result of dumb luck.  From what I can recall, the Skins weren't any luckier than the other NFCE teams--maybe except that they didn't lose their starting QB thru injury like Dallas did.  But, I do think it would be looking thru rose-colored glasses not to realize what a significant part the schedule played in 2015 and will likely play in 2016.

 

Outside of division games, the Skins played Mia, St L, Atl, Jets, TB, NE, Saints, Car, Chi and Buff in 2015.  For 2016, the Skins will play Pitt, Cleve, Balt, Det, Cincy, Minn, GB, Ariz, Car and Chi.  Car and Chi appear both years and are about the same strength for both years.  So, we can take those two out of the equation.  That means for 2015, only NE was a strong, playoff-type team, while for 2016, there are Pitt, Cincy, Minn, GB and Ariz as strong, playoff-type teams.  I would say 5-1 skews the schedule very much towards 2016 as being far tougher than 2015.

 

You say Dallas plays a schedule that differs from the Skins by only two games.  Yes, but those two games are ones where Dallas plays last-place teams from other divisions, while the Skins play 1st place teams from other divisions.  And, you should realize that 2 games are a whole lot of difference when tiebreakers are often used to decide playoff spots and there are only 16 games in total.  2 NFL games are roughly equivalent to 20 MLB games.  Do you think a baseball team isn't going to notice a difference of 20 games against strong teams compared to 20 games against weak teams?

 

Further, we are on the same side.  I am a huge Skins fan, and I presume you are one as well.  But, being a fan doesn't mean I should lose all objectivity and reason.  I just don't think the Skins will have as good a win-loss record this season as many here expect, despite the fact that I think the roster will be improved over the 2015 version.  And, I totally agree that the Skins are headed in the right direction--that's why I said watch out for them starting in 2017.

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Well it might be "reasonable" but I'd bet money you would be disappointed with just 7.5 wins...and I will bet money on us going over 7.5 wins if those are the bookie's odds...anything less than 10 (unless we win the division w/9...this division is crap...and Tony is dunn..).. I'm truly expecting 5-1 in division and 6 - 4 or even 7-3..the other 10..and 11-5 to 12-4 are my expectations...

 

Of course I hope I am wrong about 7.5 and the Skins get double-digit wins instead.  But, my head tells me no.

 

I am not sure what you meant by anything less than 10 wins or winning the division Tony is dunn.  Who is Tony?  If you meant the head coach, isn't his name Jay?  If you meant the GM, his name is Scot.  And, I sure hope you are wrong about sacking either Gruden or McCloughan if the win totals in 2016 aren't what the fans hope for.  It would be a bad mistake to destroy the continuity and stability of the new culture those two have started here.

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Not trying to pick at you specifically hamburger - you are just the latest person to post we have a significantly harder SOS than last year. The data says that's just not true. I have posted this before but will continue to post from time to time when people say we have such a tough schedule this year.

 

2015 SOS (based 2014 records) - 122-133-1 - 0.478 - 20th

2015 SOS (based on 2015 results) - 119-137 - 0.464

2016 SOS (based on 2015 records) - 126-130 - 0.492 - 17th

 

However you want to look at it unless several of our 2016 opponents considerably over achieve and no one underachieves to offset. That is highly unlikely. The schedule is a little more difficult, but it's definitely not considerably more difficult it's only 7 gms different - 0.030!.  Last year dallast who we play twice went from 12-4 in 2014 to 4-12 in 2015 and the overall SOS went down exactly 3 gms from before 2015 to after the games!

 

Even as a stand alone, it's the 17th highest SOS in the NFL, almost exactly in the middle. How is it that much harder?

 

I don't like looking at winning percentages of the opponents as a way to evaluate SOS.  I prefer to look at how many strong opponents vs how many weak opponents.  As I set forth in another post, taking out the common games, the 2015 schedule had only 1 strong opponent (NE).  In stark contrast, the 2016 schedule will have 5 strong opponents (Pitt, Cincy, Minn, GB and Ariz).  To me, that is a whopping difference.

 

Obviously, teams don't always behave as projected.  But, before the season starts, we have nothing else to go on besides the teams' recent performances and how they project for 2016.

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Further, we are on the same side.  I am a huge Skins fan, and I presume you are one as well.  But, being a fan doesn't mean I should lose all objectivity and reason.  I just don't think the Skins will have as good a win-loss record this season as many here expect, despite the fact that I think the roster will be improved over the 2015 version.  And, I totally agree that the Skins are headed in the right direction--that's why I said watch out for them starting in 2017.

 

Like I said, that is your prerogative. If you want to believe that your 'Debbie Downer' attitude about 2016 means that everyone else is lacking objectivity and is wearing rose-colored glasses, that is your prerogative too. :)

 

As I said, there is not much difference in the Cowboys and Redskins schedules this season. Those two games may give them a last place schedule, but it isn't "cushy". So let's not join in with the rabble of the sports media and anoint them NFC East champions (as the media seems to do every year after year after year after year).

 

Most have put the Redskins SoS at about middle-of-the-road. We'll see how it shakes out this year. :)

Of course I hope I am wrong about 7.5 and the Skins get double-digit wins instead.  But, my head tells me no.

 

I am not sure what you meant by anything less than 10 wins or winning the division Tony is dunn.  Who is Tony?  If you meant the head coach, isn't his name Jay?  If you meant the GM, his name is Scot. 

 

When he mentioned "Tony", I think he meant Tony romoSUCKS.

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Totally agree with this. However, when predictions are made, taking into account the fact that injuries do happen to all teams makes sense. For the most part, the teams with the fewest injuries (especially to key players) are usually the ones heading to the playoffs that year.

 

 

The funny thing is, the Redskins had massive injuries last season (as goskin10 said, we were 4th in total injuries, though I remember reading a USA Today article that said the Redskins were the second most injured team in the NFL), yet still made the playoffs.

 

True, Dallas did lose their starting QB, but he wasn't all that great when he did play.

 

This guy is saying the Redskins will fall into the basement because they lost some players who were perceived to be leaders on the team.

 

That is just silly, and two of the players he mentioned (Knighton and Goldson) were only on the team for a year and didn't play all that well.

 

Seems like this guy is just reaching for any excuse to put the Redskins in the cellar again. :)

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I don't like looking at winning percentages of the opponents as a way to evaluate SOS.  I prefer to look at how many strong opponents vs how many weak opponents.  As I set forth in another post, taking out the common games, the 2015 schedule had only 1 strong opponent (NE).  In stark contrast, the 2016 schedule will have 5 strong opponents (Pitt, Cincy, Minn, GB and Ariz).  To me, that is a whopping difference.

 

Obviously, teams don't always behave as projected.  But, before the season starts, we have nothing else to go on besides the teams' recent performances and how they project for 2016.

 

 

You are using the assumption that the performance the year before will be the same. By that logic, if you are going to have the Vikings on here, for last year you have to have the Dolphins and Falcons on the strong team list going into last year. Both were expected to not just make the playoffs they were supposed to make big runs. So that's just a 2 game difference. Even if you use actual results, how can the Jets not be on that list? They were 10-6 and just barely missed the POs. If you include the Vikings this year you have to include the falcons from last year. They were undefeated when we played them and playing at a very high level.

 

But let's look at %'s again, They hold pretty true and eliminate the teams that rise vs the teams that fall. Who saw the cowpukes going 4-12? That's a 16 gm difference yet the total diff was only 3 gms! That means the other teams we played had that many more wins. SOme of that was caromina - but that's only 4 gms. On average the %s will be pretty close. Assuming you know who will be "strong" or not is not much more than a crap shoot.

 

Sorry, but the data and facts suggest that while we have a little bit stronger schedule, last years was pretty close.

 

Here is my prediction for wins, admittedly way too early -

Wins - boys - giants - Clev - Lions - vikes - bears - eagles twice

Loses - AZ - boys - giants - pack -

Pick em - pitts - ravens - bengals - panthers

 

If we split the pick ems that's 10-6.

 

 

 

The funny thing is, the Redskins had massive injuries last season (as goskin10 said, we were 4th in total injuries, though I remember reading a USA Today article that said the Redskins were the second most injured team in the NFL), yet still made the playoffs.

 

Edit .

 

I was tracking this on a website but after the season ended they wanted me to pay. If I can find it again I will post. But the last one had us at 4th. However, they very well could have recalculated and decided it was 2nd. Either way, it was **** load of injuries - yet as you point out we still won the div!

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I can't help but consider the NFC East as being one big question-mark. All 4 teams (including the 'Skins!) have questions to be answered before anyone gets a clue on who emerges on top of the NFC East.

My guess is the division will be much more tightly contested than anyone suspected.

However, my hope is that the Skins are able answer their questions -- (1) Is Kirk bona fide?; (2) Can the Skins RBs and O-line make the running game a weapon again?; (3) Is the interior of the Skins defensive front seven able to stop opponents' running attacks? -- in a way that they're the NFC-East team emerging on top.

I would add, can Jay Gruden coach to that.

 

Kirk hasn't yet earned the status of being the franchise QB; despite us tagging him.   This will be Kirk first season as the guy; so that should be a big benefit to him.  He wasn't the guy until the end of preseason last year.  If he shows what he did the second half of the season; then we are set at QB.  If he reverts to old Kirk; then no.

 

Gruden still made questionable coaching decisions last year.  He did get better towards the end.  For me to believe he's for real; is for the team to finish at least .500.  I would really like him to do something we haven't done since 1990-1992.  For the Skins to make the playoffs in consecutive years.  If the Skins fall back to 6-10 or worse; then I would say Jay is on the hot seat for year 4. Assuming he even gets a year 4.

 

 

I feel the team is on the cusp of finally being a consistent contender.  I'm just ready to declare that yet. I need more proof.

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Of course I hope I am wrong about 7.5 and the Skins get double-digit wins instead.  But, my head tells me no.

 

I am not sure what you meant by anything less than 10 wins or winning the division Tony is dunn.  Who is Tony?  If you meant the head coach, isn't his name Jay?  If you meant the GM, his name is Scot.  And, I sure hope you are wrong about sacking either Gruden or McCloughan if the win totals in 2016 aren't what the fans hope for.  It would be a bad mistake to destroy the continuity and stability of the new culture those two have started here.

lol...sorry bout that...I meant Dallass 'TonyRomo...

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You say Dallas plays a schedule that differs from the Skins by only two games.  Yes, but those two games are ones where Dallas plays last-place teams from other divisions, while the Skins play 1st place teams from other divisions.  And, you should realize that 2 games are a whole lot of difference when tiebreakers are often used to decide playoff spots and there are only 16 games in total.  2 NFL games are roughly equivalent to 20 MLB games.  Do you think a baseball team isn't going to notice a difference of 20 games against strong teams compared to 20 games against weak teams?

 

The 2 games of difference have nothing to do with tiebreaking procedures until the sixth procedure.

 

Now, last place team from last year are not likely to be last place this year, mostly because of NFL parity. Last place teams from last year are Chicago, 49ers, Tampa and Dallas. 49ers will mostly suck, but Chiacgo and Tampa should be more tough to play.

On the other hand, the Rams that finished third are in trouble with their first pick getting slow to get ready... They might be easy win in the early season. The Eagles, as well finished second. I can easily see them fall to last place (eck, maybe even first pick next year). Even Detroit is looking bad, and they were third as well.

 

In the NFC, Titans and Chargers were last place teams, I doubt they repeat. Jaguars, Raiders were third. Thos two will be freaking tough, and why not make a run for their division

 

So with our 2 games different we face Cardinals and Panthers. One team with an overaging QB and an injury prone FS, and another one that overachieved on O due to 1 guy, that is less likely to repeat, and we face them both late in the season (when injuries are taking their toll). Dallas will face 49 ers and Tampa. 49ers in the first Q of the season might be a big ? for them, even if I don't see the 49ers as a real threat, considering where they come from (and well, that's Chip Kelly). But the Bucs might still be in the run for a playoff spot late in the season, so that won't be an easy game.

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