The Atlantic: Where Are the China Hawks?

[SkinsHokieFan]

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/06/china-isis-iran-threat/394799/?utm_source=SFTwitter

 

Link for rest

 

On Monday, Lindsey Graham announced his presidential candidacy in a speech devoted mostly to foreign policy. He mentioned variations of the word “Islam” six times. He said “the nuclear ambitions of the radical Islamists who control Iran” constitute the “biggest threat” to the United States. He twice emphasized his devotion to Israel. And once, about halfway through his remarks, he mentioned China.

 

In American politics today, especially in the GOP, Graham’s priorities are typical. Two years ago, during Secretary of Defense nominee Chuck Hagel’s contentiousseven-and-a-half-hour grilling by the Armed Services Committee, senators mentioned Israel 178 times and Iran 171 times. The number of references to China? Five.

 

The emphasis is odd because it’s likely that the “biggest threat” to America’s national security is neither Iran nor “radical Islam” writ large. It is China.

 

 

[ixcuincle]

Tough to go on feuds all over the world, first Islam now China

 

One feud at a time 

 

Plus we're doing what we can in regard to that whole deal they're doing with that island, just flying a surveillance plane over and the Chinese are like GO AWAY NOTHING IS HERE

 

we're just flying over international waters

 

NOTHING IS HERE GOA WAY

[Captain Wiggles]

Why mess with China? Aren't they still a strategic ally?

[Predicto]

Why mess with China? Aren't they still a strategic ally?

 

 

I don't think we should go out of our way to mess with them, but we should not close our eyes to their actions.  For example, their ever-more ridiculous territorial claims under the laughable "nine dashed line" are really racheting up tensions in the area.  

 

Plus, their military establishment remains deeply suspicious of us, and many of them assume (and plan for) what they see as an inevitable military confrontation with the US over Taiwan and Korea.  

[Slateman]

So once upon a time, in the midst of a strugle with jihadis in the Middle East, a young woman claimed that Russia was the greatest threat America faced.

[Renegade7]

American Multi-National corporations trying to have their cake and eat it too by shipping American factory jobs to China then making them the boogyman for stealing their trade secrets while having Chinese run those factories.  I remember a lot of bashing Obama on his dealing with China during the 2012 election, more so to have something else to pile on about versus a clear message on what to do.

 

Corporations don't seem sure what to do here either, so while some American companies like Apple are bringing factories back to the states due to factors like fuel costs (cost of building then shipping here coming close to just building it here to begin with), I imagine American politicians are defualting to not poke the bear without a clear message or support (which is good because its in both our country's best intrests to be healthy rivals with common interests, not enemies).

 

I agree with not letting China get to point of feeing they can claim whatever they want (just can't be the only one saying it with any clout).  Small victories piilling up (like getting an agreement on environmental goals between our countries), and as much as some want to bash the TPP (some cases deservedly so), not letting China in off jump gives us a chance to make certain demands we can hold them to in order to join (which doesn't seem like what we did when we let them into the WTO).

[twa]

we will just make another Reset button.

[Riggo-toni]

Apparently none of the Chinese who frequented Graham's uncle's billiard rooms were liars, so he's not concerned.

[PeterMP]

To me China is easily more of a real threat than ISIS.

 

At this time I think you do 3 things:

 

1.  Foster western culture there (and I'd include Christianity- Christian churches have had a good bit of success in China).

2.  Cybersecurity

3.  Start developing human intelligence sources.

 

I'd easily be focusing on those 3 things more than ISIS.

[Larry]

I'm not really sure I'd list China as a bigger threat. 

 

China is certainly a bigger threat, when it comes to certain things. 

 

• China is at least a long-term threat to our superpower status.  ISIS never will be. 
• China is a threat to take over as the center of the global economy.  (And if that happens, it might well be a bigger disaster, for us, than not being the #1 military would be.)
• They're a bigger threat to become the world leader in technology.

 

OTOH, odds of China pulling another 9/11 on the US are really really slim.  Whereas ISIS might. 

[ixcuincle]

  

[PeterMP]

I'm not really sure I'd list China as a bigger threat. 

 

China is certainly a bigger threat, when it comes to certain things. 

 

• China is at least a long-term threat to our superpower status.  ISIS never will be. 
• China is a threat to take over as the center of the global economy.  (And if that happens, it might well be a bigger disaster, for us, than not being the #1 military would be.)
• They're a bigger threat to become the world leader in technology.

 

OTOH, odds of China pulling another 9/11 on the US are really really slim.  Whereas ISIS might. 

 

You should read the Atlantic story on ISIS posted in the Ted Cruz ISIS thread.  There will be attacks carried out here in the name of ISIS (e.g. the attack on the Muslim drawing contest in TX), but ISIS isn't Al qeada.  They have different objectives, needs, and requirements.  The chances of a real ISIS developed attack on the US is actually small.

 

I think there is a much higher chance of China killing a large number of Americans somewhere they are now (e.g. S. Korea, Japan, the open seas, etc.) then ISIS (now, that changes if put large numbers of Americans some where they aren't currently now (e.g. Syria/Iraq)). 

[visionary]

I don't think there's really any threat to us at all in the US from China...at least not unless we end up at war with them some day.

China is more of a rival than a threat direct threat hough,  China has no interest in going to war with us.

They're certainly a threat to getting things done internationally through the UN, and somewhat of a theoretical threat to nearby countries over disputed territories (though they're nowhere near as aggressive, confrontational, or tricky as Russia is).  I guess the main problem with China is that if they actually do become a threat or try to take some place over that actually matters, we would have a hard time stopping them.

 

Hmmm, thinking about it, I'm betting we would see more China Hawks if they did things differently and went out of their way to piss people off, like Russia or even North Korea. 

[PeterMP]

I don't think there's really any threat to us at all in the US from China...at least not unless we end up at war with them some day.

China is more of a rival than a threat direct threat hough,  China has no interest in going to war with us.

They're certainly a threat to getting things done internationally through the UN, and somewhat of a theoretical threat to nearby countries over disputed territories (though they're nowhere near as aggressive, confrontational, or tricky as Russia is).  I guess the main problem with China is that if they actually do become a threat or try to take some place over that actually matters, we would have a hard time stopping them.

 

I don't think Russia is much of a threat (note, I'm not saying 0, and I'd probably put them ahead of ISIS, but it isn't much).  I think Putin is mostly playing to the home crowd and is taking what he's given.  Now, he'll keep taking as long as it keeps being given, but he has a weak hand, and I think he knows it.

 

If we would have stepped up aggressively after Georgia, the Ukraine would have never happened.  If we would have (or do) step up after Ukraine, the next thing would not have happened.

 

As is, I expect in the near future another domino will fall.  Eventually though somebody (us or the EU I guess) will say enough is enough and that'll be the end.

 

In terms of China, I think it is the fact that they are going to be hard to stop that makes them a threat.  I also think they know they are going to be hard to stop, and I think there are things they want (Taiwan, parts of Japan, Korea, Russia etc.).

 

One of the things about the old Soviet Union was they got so much after WWIII, there really wasn't anything they wanted.

 

That's not the case with China.

 

China is already playing for a "sea grab" that out strips anything the Soviets really did.

[twa]

we(and allies) are positioning for armed conflict with them, just precautionary measures

weapon systems and doctrine are also adapting

 

Hawks prefer smaller game, and obviously non-nuclear ones

[sportjunkie07]

China is the biggest threat to the US. It has been that way for probably a decade.

They are growing stronger and waiting as our society weakens. Make no mistake about it, they will hammer us politically and financially when the tide turns in their favor. It's the way things work.

I tend to think that we will war with them in 20 years or so.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Is there money to be made by bombing China?

[Bang]

China attacks us daily via cyber warfare. Again and again and again, an active battle.

 

The threat they pose to us if these attacks are successful is bigger than all the threats of the other guys.

 

 

But it's probably not as easy to get thoughtless flag-wavers to vote if you have to rely on the imagery of  'American heroes" like Myron Schinsky, cyber-security programmer. They don't carry guns or wear camo.. a movie about them would be boring, and they'd probably trip over themselves trying to unfurl the giant flag at football games.

 

~Bang

[Slateman]

China attacks us daily via cyber warfare. Again and again and again, an active battle.

 

The threat they pose to us if these attacks are successful is bigger than all the threats of the other guys.

 

 

But it's probably not as easy to get thoughtless flag-wavers to vote if you have to rely on the imagery of  'American heroes" like Myron Schinsky, cyber-security programmer. They don't carry guns or wear camo.. a movie about them would be boring, and they'd probably trip over themselves trying to unfurl the giant flag at football games.

 

~Bang

Don't act like the US isn't doing the same.

[China]

[Bang]

Don't act like the US isn't doing the same.

Oh, you caught me. I was only answering the questions in the OP instead of making up new arguments to take the conversation through.

We're also the only nation to ever drop an atomic device in aggression.

So i should not be allowed to be concerned over other nation's abilities to do that to us, huh.

Bad US.

BAD!

Maybe you should ask those hawkish candidates that are the topic of the OP article why they don't bomb Minneapolis or something.

I'd ask for the point you were trying to make given the questions posed in the opening post of the thread,but

A/ you'd probably give it, and

B/ i don't care about it.

~Bang

[Xameil]

China is a house of cards.

They got their strength from it being cheaper to manufacture there. That is rapidly disappearing. Textile companies are quickly looking elsewhere because of the shipping expenses. Companies are starting to shift towards Vietnam, Indonesia and starting to come back to the US.

In order to keep the growing population employed in China, they are putting more regulations in that limit overtime, and encourage hiring more people to run the 2nd and 3rd shifts. Without the overtime, most Chinese factory workers can not make a living.

They are also cracking down on pollution. Alot of the factories I deal with use coal to heat, but not the "clean coal". They are starting to see more regulations toward that as well, and some factories have not prepared for a shift to cleaner energies.

So put that all together along with rise in shipping costs, and you get a shift towards other countries, and Chinese factories having to scale down their workforce. So in order to create jobs, you get funded building of cities that go un occupied and provide no revenue.

Eventually it will all come crashing down. That's when the world needs to worry, because China will become a cornered animal and will probably try to pick fights in order to divert attention and try and get their people to rally against a common enemy.

But this is all just my opinion gathered from my visits there, meetings with textile companies and talking to some of the Chinese people over drinks..and they love to drink...

[endzone_dave]

China is a house of cards.

They got their strength from it being cheaper to manufacture there. That is rapidly disappearing. Textile companies are quickly looking elsewhere because of the shipping expenses. Companies are starting to shift towards Vietnam, Indonesia and starting to come back to the US.

In order to keep the growing population employed in China, they are putting more regulations in that limit overtime, and encourage hiring more people to run the 2nd and 3rd shifts. Without the overtime, most Chinese factory workers can not make a living.

They are also cracking down on pollution. Alot of the factories I deal with use coal to heat, but not the "clean coal". They are starting to see more regulations toward that as well, and some factories have not prepared for a shift to cleaner energies.

So put that all together along with rise in shipping costs, and you get a shift towards other countries, and Chinese factories having to scale down their workforce. So in order to create jobs, you get funded building of cities that go un occupied and provide no revenue.

Eventually it will all come crashing down. That's when the world needs to worry, because China will become a cornered animal and will probably try to pick fights in order to divert attention and try and get their people to rally against a common enemy.

But this is all just my opinion gathered from my visits there, meetings with textile companies and talking to some of the Chinese people over drinks..and they love to drink...

 

I have to agree with that.  More and more countries are getting into the game of providing cheap labor and there are some who can actually beat China now on labor cost.

 

Are there really any products China makes that you buy because it's good rather than just inexpensive?

[PeterMP]

Eventually it will all come crashing down. That's when the world needs to worry, because China will become a cornered animal and will probably try to pick fights in order to divert attention and try and get their people to rally against a common enemy.

 

Hopefully, it will crash on them fast enough (the old Soviet Union) or slow enough so that those (currently) in power don't recognize what has happened and do something desperate.

[Xameil]

Hopefully, it will crash on them fast enough (the old Soviet Union) or slow enough so that those (currently) in power don't recognize what has happened and do something desperate.

I agree.