HOF44 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pretty sure this is what the Euro was showing all along, as the only outlier. No? Yep, if it does go out to sea this will cement the EURO as top dog model. Heck it really already is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huly Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 UMD just moved their game from 8pm Saturday to Noon Saturday due to the Hurricane. Is anything new out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heyholetsgogrant Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 UMD just moved their game from 8pm Saturday to Noon Saturday due to the Hurricane. Is anything new out? I'm looking a the weather underground now, all of the posters say its too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d0ublestr0ker0ll Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) Yep, still too early. Solution for the GFS last night made it a worse storm than Sandy for the NJ coast, now it's sending it out to sea...a few other models have followed suit, but some still shoot it in to the mid-atlantic. 3/4 days out, I'm not buying in to anything. We know a huge storm is there, and it's going to be flung up the coast, I'm still thinking about how I'll prevent flooding and whatnot. Getting the drains cleared today, the gutter extensions on. System coming in tomorrow looks like it's bringing the pain. Edited October 1, 2015 by d0ublestr0ker0ll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btfoom Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As of 5 PM today, official National Hurricane Center has it going further out to the Atlantic: http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/storms/storm2_track.html From NHC: Overnight Wednesday, a pair of computer forecast models moved their tracks further east, but still suggested a possible track toward the U.S. East Coast. This trend continued with Thursday morning's initial computer model forecast guidance. NOAA Gulfstream aircraft surveillance missions and extra balloon soundings launched from National Weather Service offices on the mainland may have contributed to the eastward shift in some of the model guidance. Despite that, there still remains uncertainty in Joaquin's future track, and, thus, its potential impact on the U.S. this weekend. It's not uncommon to have a large amount of uncertainty with a forecast track three to four days in advance of a direct hit from a tropical storm or hurricane. Average track errors in the three- to four-day forecast range have been between 113 and 157 nautical miles in the last five years, according to the National Hurricane Center. This could be the difference between hurricane-force winds and winds remaining below tropical storm force at any point down the line. The National Hurricane Center says hurricane watches could be issued for parts of the East Coast Friday. Bottom line, if you live on the East Coast, remain vigilant and monitor for forecast changes. Hope it tracks further and further out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellis Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm in the boat repair business. And I'm also a home owner on the Bay. I'm on the fence on this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm in the boat repair business. And I'm also a home owner on the Bay. I'm on the fence on this one. So, you're always in a win/lose haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellis Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So, you're always in a win/lose haha. A tortured existence, I tell you. "Oh sweet! Overtime. I'll need it just to fix my house." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d0ublestr0ker0ll Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) This gif updates itself: As of 9:30pm thurs, storms coming through the region tomorrow are flaring up off of the SC coast. You can see the far northwestern portion of Joaquin starting to get swept north by the Low's trough. That's what is going to catch and throw Joaquin northward pretty soon. It has taken quite an alarming southwestern track the past few hours. The 18z model runs gave it a bit more of a chance to make landfall than the 12z runs did. The bigtime 0z runs are on deck. Edited October 2, 2015 by d0ublestr0ker0ll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That gif looks like something a scientist would show as a worse case scenario before The Rock springs into action to save the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOF44 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Now I'm hearing it may hit SC. Nobody knows what this thing is gonna do! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins24 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Now I'm hearing it may hit SC. Nobody knows what this thing is gonna do!ALL models, or at least all the ones with any credibility, have sided with the out to sea solution today. It's taking it's time turning but as of RIGHT NOW a U.S. landfall appears unlikely. We'll see what tomorrow's runs bring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d0ublestr0ker0ll Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) Models moved Joaquin's projected track a bit west on their 0z runs, even the Euro did. GFS has it riding the coast, albeit pretty far off. That's still more concerning than thursday's model runs. The ole NAM keeps throwing this thing right in to the mid-atlantic coast. Grain of salt. Grain of salt with every model, really. Even the Euro and updated GFS. Weather is still too wonky for them. They're always adjusting their forecasts, often dramatically. Then, after the fact, they'll still have gotten it wrong. Great tools to get an idea of what is looming. With that said, Joaquin is still chillin, and is doing a weird little circle now, where it went w/sw, now it's moved a couple ticks e/ne. Weird mf storm, and a powerhouse. I'm still weary. Last week it was predicted to be, at best, a tropical depression that would slide up the coast. Now we have a borderline cat 5 dancing like James Brown off the coast of FL. Edited October 2, 2015 by d0ublestr0ker0ll 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heyholetsgogrant Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 With that said, Joaquin is still chillin, and is doing a weird little circle now, where it went w/sw, now it's moved a couple ticks e/ne. Weird mf storm, and a powerhouse. I'm still weary. Last week it was predicted to be, at best, a tropical depression that would slide up the coast. Now we have a borderline cat 5 dancing like James Brown off the coast of FL. This storm is so bizarre, it's just sitting there. I can't imagine what we will see once people get out from their homes in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattFancy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Here's the latest from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d0ublestr0ker0ll Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Rain looks like it will last all day today, and go in to the late night hours. Worst is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huly Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Rain looks like it will last all day today, and go in to the late night hours. Worst is yet to come. Worst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d0ublestr0ker0ll Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) Worst?The thick of it has entered the DC area. Should remain like it is now in to tonight, with the potential for torrential downpours mixed in there. Localized flooding is a major concern.As far as Sunday, the hurricane is what you want to watch out for. Right now it's still up in the air where it will go. Edited October 2, 2015 by d0ublestr0ker0ll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattFancy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The thick of it has entered the DC area. Should remain like it is now in to tonight, with the potential for torrential downpours mixed in there. Localized flooding is a major concern. As far as Sunday, the hurricane is what you want to watch out for. Right now it's still up in the air where it will go. Are you sure? Everything I've read seems pretty confident that it's not going to effect the East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOF44 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Are you sure? Everything I've read seems pretty confident that it's not going to effect the East Coast That's what the latest model runs say. But they are just models, look a yesterdays. Tomorrows will probably be different. The timeline has been WAY off. It just keeps sitting down over the bahamas spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattFancy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That's what the latest model runs say. But they are just models, look a yesterdays. Tomorrows will probably be different. The timeline has been WAY off. It just keeps sitting down over the bahamas spinning. I mean there's a slight chance it could still head this way, but for the most part, most models have it staying OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) I mean there's a slight chance it could still head this way, but for the most part, most models have it staying OTS Every single model I've read, from the justinweather site, to the capital weather gang, etc, is saying all of these models are working with a VERY low confidence in the variables. Here's a good write up about it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/01/why-the-forecast-cone-of-uncertainty-is-inadequate-for-hurricane-joaquin/ Why the forecast cone of uncertainty is inadequate for Hurricane Joaquin ... Hurricane Joaquin has proven to be a difficult forecast — much more difficult than other recent East Coast hurricanes. ... But surprisingly, the size of the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty — the cone that surrounds the main track line and gives a range of possibilities for the storm’s future path — is not determined by the specific forecast uncertainty for that particular storm. Instead, it represents an average track error over the past five years. As the forecasts get better each year, the cone shrinks, but it is also fixed in size for each storm that year, with no regard for whether the forecast is high- or low-confidence. ... “There is no rational explanation for why the National Hurricane Center product suite is so rigid it precludes incorporating readily available case dependent information that reflects reality much more so than simple statistics,” said Steve Tracton, a contributor to the Capital Weather Gang. “Especially in cases like this there is no need to await the long promised, but not delivered computer algorithms to do this.” ... “The two computer models that have traditionally performed best [the GFS and the European] BOTH go outside of the cone — one to the right and one to the left,” Weather Channel meteorologist Bryan Norcross wrote on Facebook. “The cone splits the difference.” ... (there's a lot more at the link, it's a good read on this particular storm) In some cases people are criticizing the national hurricane center for releasing this cone because they're afraid that since it pretty much has it going to out to sea, people will stop paying attention and will not be prepared if it does infact hit us. So at this point it seems like what they're saying is - Yes, the models have it going out to sea, but we have no real confidence in those models at this point so hang tight. Edited October 2, 2015 by tshile 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hurricane is OTS. Doesn't mean we're not going to get walloped by rain all weekend. Not as bad for us as NC/SC, but will still be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d0ublestr0ker0ll Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) I addressed the fallibility of the models a few posts back. The Euro whiffed on the last non-snowstorm of this past winter, among plenty of other storms. Early in the week, none showed the solution we're seeing now. Weren't even close. That's not to say it won't go OTS, but I'm studying that radar loop gif, and it's definitely sketching me out. You see a huge air mass in the Atlantic pushing against the hurricane, pressing it in place, while the fierce trough on the western side is ripping northward like a fountain. It seems like if the Hurricane gets caught in that, it will shoot up right in to the Carolinas. It looks like it's moving NW at the moment. Edited October 2, 2015 by d0ublestr0ker0ll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d0ublestr0ker0ll Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Definitely just bounced to the NE. The next few hours are huge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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