Official 2024 FA/Trades: Ertz, Armstrong, Ferrell, Fowler, Ndubuisi, Biadasz, Allegretti, Deiter, Luvu, Wagner, Pittman, Walker, Ekeler, McNichols, McManus, Mariota, Driskel, Ott, Chinn, Iggy, Davis, Pierre, Zaccheaus, Reaves, Crowder, Obada, Lucas, Byrd

[KDawg]

I’ve been more busy than usual, is @CapsSkins updating the OP for quick check ins?

[redskinss]

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

This is what I don't get about the running back market.

 

Barkley could be had for roughly this deal.

Is Ezra Cleveland really more valuable to a team than Barkley?

 

I get the injury history part and the falling of a cliff at a certain age but Barkley just turned 27, there's no reason to believe he couldn't have 3 good years left and at 10 mil per is it really that much of a gamble?

 

It's not like if we had to dump him next year it'd be crippling to our cap like Russell Wilson.

The risk reward seems heavily stacked in the teams favor with these backs like Barkley and jacobs if it's only ten mil per or around there but then again there's a reason there's not a ton of competition for these guys driving up their price it just escapes me.

[Warhead36]

4 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

This is what I don't get about the running back market.

 

Barkley could be had for roughly this deal.

Is Ezra Cleveland really more valuable to a team than Barkley?

 

I get the injury history part and the falling of a cliff at a certain age but Barkley just turned 27, there's no reason to believe he couldn't have 3 good years left and at 10 mil per is it really that much of a gamble?

 

It's not like if we had to dump him next year it'd be crippling to our cap like Russell Wilson.

The risk reward seems heavily stacked in the teams favor with these backs like Barkley and jacobs if it's only ten mil per or around there but then again there's a reason there's not a ton of competition for these guys driving up their price it just escapes me.

If I'm playing one game for my life I'd rather have Barkley. If I'm building a team to sustain success I'd rather have the OL.

 

Plus, the Jags have a good back already in Etienne. Barkley doesn't make much sense for them.

 

Its all about context.

[Skinsinparadise]

Barkley averaged 3.9 YPC last year.  His best season has been his rookie season.    I don't think the best is yet to come for the dude.   Most RBs fall off in their late 20s, not all of them but plenty of them

 

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/07/at-what-age-do-running-backs-decline-2021-fantasy-football/

 

What We Learned

Stop saying you can’t trust rookies or young players. If they’re both guaranteed 50-plus touches, a 21-year-old rookie running back has a better chance at being elite than a 26-year-old proven starter. We all know that players lose upside the older they get, but there seems to be a clear stopping point for running backs, which occurs after their age-28 season. From a per-touch standpoint, running backs tend to decline beyond the age of 26, which is why we’ve started to see running backs have a hard time getting a big contract once their rookie deal is over. If you’ve got a running back who is 28 years of age, regardless of how great his season was, you need to consider moving on. If you need running back help on your roster, don’t be afraid to spend up in order to acquire a young running back.

[redskinss]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

If I'm playing one game for my life I'd rather have Barkley. If I'm building a team to sustain success I'd rather have the OL.

 

Plus, the Jags have a good back already in Etienne. Barkley doesn't make much sense for them.

 

Its all about context.

 

Yeah I wasn't suggesting Barkley for them I was thinking us.

 

Obviously we need offensive lineman and we need to get several through both the draft and free agency, my argument was simply suggesting that in my opinion Barkley is at least worth the value of an above average but not elite guard and I can't figure out why their market is so depressed. 

 

I get why they aren't making 25 million per year, I don't get why at ten million per year people aren't salivating at the risk reward of such an elite play maker in the backfield. 

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Barkley averaged 3.9 YPC last year

 

He was also quite literally the only thing the giants had on offense. 

 

They had horrid quarterbacking, a comical offensive line and no receivers.

 

Nobody could have succeeded in those conditions.

 

Put Barkley in San Fran and I think we're having a very different conversation about his production. 

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I’ve been more busy than usual, is @CapsSkins updating the OP for quick check ins?

Should be, you create the thread you take the responsibility…

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Typically, it makes the most sense to draft: QB, OT, WR, DE, CB

 

Typically good deals in FA can be found with: C, S, TE, RB, LB

 

I find that the tier-2 non-premier/day one signings at TE, RB, LB, CB and S tend to be the best values.

I think it’s typically best to draft the best players and in free agency sign the best players that you are able to. There is simply no way they can be categorised as above, IMO.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

I think the issue is that you’re using the term “Edge rusher,” which the league doesn’t use. They treat 3-4 OLBs as LBs, and they’re separated from the 4-3 DEs. It also appears they aren’t using contract extensions that kick in this year (which eliminates guys like Nick Bosa, Montez Sweat, Rashan Gary). 
 

So for the LBs, you have TJ Watt ($28M), Joey Bosa ($27M), Khalil Mack ($23.5M), Bradley Chubb ($22M), and Fred Warner ($19M). That’s where your $24M number comes from. 
 

And for the DEs, you have Myles Garrett ($25M), Maxx Crosby ($23.5M), Trey Hendrickson ($21M), Von Miller ($20M), and either Arik Armstead or Dremont Jones ($17M), which gives you the $21M number.

 

There we go. That's exactly what I was asking for!

 

NFL's way of doing it is archaic. Also it ensures no off-ball LB or signal calling MLB on a defense will ever get tagged.

Edited March 7 by Always A Commander Never A Captain

[MartinC]

8 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

Yeah I wasn't suggesting Barkley for them I was thinking us.

 

Obviously we need offensive lineman and we need to get several through both the draft and free agency, my argument was simply suggesting that in my opinion Barkley is at least worth the value of an above average but not elite guard and I can't figure out why their market is so depressed. 

 

I get why they aren't making 25 million per year, I don't get why at ten million per year people aren't salivating at the risk reward of such an elite play maker in the backfield. 

 

He was also quite literally the only thing the giants had on offense. 

 

They had horrid quarterbacking, a comical offensive line and no receivers.

 

Nobody could have succeeded in those conditions.

 

Put Barkley in San Fran and I think we're having a very different conversation about his production. 

Barkley will be a nice add for someone who already has a good O'line. He can be very productive and is a factor in the passing game as well.

 

For us we have one starter on the O'line inked in right now. Zero point us signing a back to a big deal until we have a line to block for that back. Backs are so dependent on their blocking - the very best create explosive plays after contact and yards beyond expected but no back is going to productive if first contact is 3 yards in the backfield.

 

I would far rather spend those cap dollars on Onwenu and Hunt than Barkley.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

 

He was also quite literally the only thing the giants had on offense. 

 

They had horrid quarterbacking, a comical offensive line and no receivers.

 

Nobody could have succeeded in those conditions.

 

Put Barkley in San Fran and I think we're having a very different conversation about his production. 

 

He had a great rookie year.  He had 2 good years and three so so years.  He has a star name.  And like his teaamate Daniel Jones he's awesome when he plays this team.

 

He gets hurt a lot.  He's coming off a bad season.  Injury prone RBs coming off a bad season don't often have their best football ahead of them from 27-30. 

 

Maybe Barkley is an exception.  But I am not interested in betting 10 million plus to see what he's got left.  I got no fear it happens though.

 

 

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He had a great rookie year.  He had 2 good years and three so so years.  He has a star name.  And like his teaamate Daniel Jones he's awesome when he plays this team.

 

He gets hurt a lot.  He's coming off a bad season.  Injury prone RBs coming off a bad season don't often have their best football ahead of them from 27-30. 

 

Maybe Barkley is an exception.  But I am not interested in betting 10 million plus to see what he's got left.  I got no fear it happens though.

 

 

Agree. I’d hate a move like that.

[redskinss]

Just now, MartinC said:

Barkley will be a nice add for someone who already has a good O'line. He can be very productive and is a factor in the passing game as well.

 

For us we have one starter on the O'line inked in right now. Zero point us signing a back to a big deal until we have a line to block for that back. Backs are so dependent on their blocking - the very best create explosive plays after contact and yards beyond expected but no back is going to productive if first contact is 3 yards in the backfield.

 

I would far rather spend those cap dollars on Onwenu and Hunt than Barkley.

 

i know you're Right I'm just so tired of watching other teams pile up blue chip talent on offense that I'm starving for a little of the same but we really aren't ready for it.

 

It feels like we've been saying this for a thousand years though, when will we be able to go get some elite playmakers?

 

Frustrating to say the least.

[Warhead36]

NFL needs an MLB like arbitration to determine franchise tag and 5th year option amounts. Its unfair to guys who are stars at less than premium positions or guys who can play multiple positions.

[e16bball]

15 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

There we go. That's exactly what I was asking for!

 

NFL's way of doing it is archaic. Also it ensures no off-ball LB or signal calling MLB on a defense will ever get tagged.

100% agree. It’s goofy to lump Micah Parsons in with Dremont Jones, and it’s even goofier to lump Fred Warner in with TJ Watt.

 

As you said, there is approaching a 0% chance that any team will ever tag a 4-3 LB or 3-4 ILB ever again under this system.

[Koolblue13]

[Est.1974]

The flooded safety market should be great for us. Get Kearse from Dallas plus any one of these other guys and we are in business.  It might just open up better value in the draft too.

 

[gooseneck]

We should sign all the Bills cuts and rename the team the "Washington Billy Goats".

[JamesMadisonSkins]

So … not a surprise and makes a ton of sense. Maybe Stromberg kicks to LG and a swing C/G and competes with Wylie and Paul.

 

Also understand the concern of too many early picks. Those guys will all be hitting FA/new deals at the same time. But also feels strange to assume they all hit and will all warrant new deals 4 years out. 
 

Keim is read in so I would expect a C early on. Maybe even before FA if they like Morse 

Edited March 7 by JamesMadisonSkins

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

[HigSkin]

It's not often a team releases a four-time All Pro safety coming off another All Pro season like the Denver Broncos did with Justin Simmons.

 

It's also not often a team decides to let a 24-year-old safety coming off a season with 11 passes defensed walk out the door like the New York Giants did with Xavier McKinney.

 

And the Seahawks released Quandre Diggs, and the Bills released Jordan Poyer, and the Jaguars released Rayshawn Jenkins and so on and so forth.

 

Though they're all individual decisions within teams, the league at large is speaking loudly on how it feels about safeties: They generally aren't worth the money.

 

Just like the running back market has cratered in recent years, the safety position has done something similar. There are some safeties worth paying, like a Derwin James or Antoine Winfield Jr. or Kyle Hamilton in a few years.

 

But more than $103 million across the league has been saved in 2024 cash salary at the safety position, according to Over The Cap. That's the most by far of any position group, outpacing the cornerback salary shed by early $40 million.

 

"There's so much opportunity to overcome physical talent with high level intellect and intangibles. So you don't have to overspend to get production," one NFL personnel executive told CBS Sports. "You can draft these guys Day 3 or put low free-agency resources into them and get production back if they are smart."

 

Said another personnel executive: "It's essentially a similar but not equivalent argument to running backs. So many teams are playing with third-to-fifth-round picks at the position and doing just fine. There are other areas of your team to spend on that impact the game way more."

 

To no one's surprise, coaches see it differently.

 

"There's a disconnect between how coaches see the position and how personnel see the position," one defensive backs coach told CBS Sports. "It's a very scheme-dependent role so some guys can be a perfect fit for some coaches whereas other guys are not as good of a fit, no fault of their own or even their measurables. That said, trying to gauge production from one scheme to another can then become equally difficult."

 

If a safety can cover a tight end, and then tackle in the run game, and then force fumbles, and then sack the quarterback while also not allowing any touchdowns in coverage, that player will get paid. There just happens to be very few of those humans on the planet, and any deficiency a safety has will likely be exposed by a creative offensive coordinator.

 

This is the way the NFL is trending right now. Quarterbacks aren't throwing the deep ball like they used to. The last four years, the league has seen less than eight passes per game of 20-plus yards down the field after a decade of being above eight per game.

Last year there were 15.4 passes per game behind the line of scrimmage, the most since the NFL began tracking it in 2006. And of the past two decades, the last five years have produced the lowest interception rates in the league.

 

There's been an increase in two-high safety looks over the last half-decade. According to league data, 38 percent of coverages last season had two-high safety looks. That has crept up from 2019's rate of 30 percent in each successive year.

 

Those looks tend to yield shorter passes. Against two-high last year, quarterbacks threw 68 percent of their passes less than 10 yards downfield where that number was 63 percent against zero or one-high safety.­­

 

So, on the field, there has statistically been less of a need for a safety compared to previous years.

 

It will be fascinating to watch how the safety market plays out next week at the start of free agency. Will teams pounce on one of the top players like McKinney and Simmons? Or will teams sit back and wait for someone else to set the market?

[mh86]

4 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Kam not happy about this one. He wanted to test the market and find out what he's worth. He is gonna get a rude awakening imo. No one from last years historically awful defense is worth top money. None of them. 

Thats gonna make him real happy. And what a crappy thing to do to probably the best player on your team. 

From my understanding the NFL makes the designation, not the team. So it wouldn’t be the cowboys decision to label him as a DE or LB

Edited March 7 by mh86
Looks like this was already answered. Apologies.

[mac8887]

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

 

i know you're Right I'm just so tired of watching other teams pile up blue chip talent on offense that I'm starving for a little of the same but we really aren't ready for it.

 

It feels like we've been saying this for a thousand years though, when will we be able to go get some elite playmakers?

 

Frustrating to say the least.

Maybe the reason we are never ready for the blue chip talent is because we never have the blue chip talent?

 

I’d be all for signing Barkley, maybe a 3yr/30mil with an out after the 2nd year.

 

You gotta believe the defense will improve, the coaching is already 100% better, If Ron was able to improve the D that Jack built, whit and Quinn should at the very least make it viable.

 

The offense should improve as well, eb was bad, the coaching should be 100% better.

 

The giants stink, Philly is on the decline, and we took half of Dallas coaching staff.

 

If we hit on QB, and use the draft and cap to put the best talent around him as possible, I believe the division title can be had.

 

If we can play good ball control football and keep games close, a weapon like him that has a chance to score from anywhere on the field, coming out of the backfield, would be an amazing weapon for us. 

 

[wit33]

On 3/6/2024 at 11:39 AM, CommDownMan said:

 

I was curious to see an example of other running backs to get a gauge of a say a 3/30 deal and if year 3 wasn't guaranteed if we could work it lower than a 2/20 in theory.  

 

So many rookie deals, franchise tags, 1 year deals and a few top guys.  I knew RB was deprioritized, but hadn't really noticed just how short term most of these deals are.

 

edit for pic

Looks generally the same for other positions (other than QB/OT).  So maybe it's just how the NFL works in general.

Incredibly cost-effective considering their potential impact on a season.

 

This will soon become a trending topic—the veteran RB's value reaching its trough, presenting a significant buying opportunity in today's market.

 

23 hours ago, woodpecker said:

Somebody said this as a General philosophy, I don’t know who, but I agree:

 

Spend your FA money on the non-premium positions where you can get better value… safety, RB, LB, TE

 

Save your draft picks for the expensive premium positions QB, OT, WR, CB. Need guys on Rookie deals at those spots as much as possible.

 

 

PS looks like we signed Ertz while I was typing—guess that fits so 👍👍

 

Somewhat confident that the new front office is actively seeking ways to gain a competitive edge, rather than nostalgically adhering to methods employed by the 75% of mediocre NFL franchises whether that involves picking up Barkley or not. Peters might be considering the MVP-level impact that a player like Christian McCaffrey brought to the Niners with a young QB. Yes, Barkley is that talented to be compared to Mccafrey. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Barkley averaged 3.9 YPC last year.  His best season has been his rookie season.    I don't think the best is yet to come for the dude.   Most RBs fall off in their late 20s, not all of them but plenty of them

 

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/07/at-what-age-do-running-backs-decline-2021-fantasy-football/

 

What We Learned

Stop saying you can’t trust rookies or young players. If they’re both guaranteed 50-plus touches, a 21-year-old rookie running back has a better chance at being elite than a 26-year-old proven starter. We all know that players lose upside the older they get, but there seems to be a clear stopping point for running backs, which occurs after their age-28 season. From a per-touch standpoint, running backs tend to decline beyond the age of 26, which is why we’ve started to see running backs have a hard time getting a big contract once their rookie deal is over. If you’ve got a running back who is 28 years of age, regardless of how great his season was, you need to consider moving on. If you need running back help on your roster, don’t be afraid to spend up in order to acquire a young running back.

 

The timeline probably doesn't sync with Barkley being a target for this regime, unless they aim to support Daniels or Maye by adding a premier backfield talent proficient in pass protection. It's plausible that the front office may see the value in acquiring a veteran center and a seasoned running back to assist a young QB on a play-by-play basis. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

Barkley will be a nice add for someone who already has a good O'line

I think he would be lethal in Baltimore. Option between Lamar and Barkley is just scary imo. 

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think he would be lethal in Baltimore. Option between Lamar and Barkley is just scary imo. 

They're gonna sign Derrick Henry. Its almost a guarantee at this point.

[Veretta83]

13 hours ago, Conn said:

A post written by someone who has definitely followed Kirk Cousins’ career and contract negotiations.

 

Ha!  Trust me, I know.  It was the hypothetical of all hypotheticals.  Just curious to see how people would respond here if he went against the grain and shocked the world.