2023 Season Prediction Thread - So How Many Games Will We Win?

[redskinss]

I think there's a chance we could lose a game but I went with 17-0 anyway 

[TheBlueIndian]

12 & 5 

For no other reason than we are overdrawn in the "bucket of suck" category and the law of averages will provide some karmic equilibrium. 

 

Don't argue Or call into question my methodology...it's science 

[Renegade7]

We went 8-8-1 with about the worst QB play imaginable.

 

And if remember correctly this team didn't have a weak schedule last year to suggest that this one being hard should be that much of a difference in this conversation.

 

Jus in what Howell showed he could do that Taylor and Wentz couldn't do last year is enough to make this a better team then last year.

 

I'm going 9-8, and with our division potentially causing tiebreaker chaos all over the conference, it may be that last Dallas game that gets all four of us in as a wildcard.

[skinzplay]

Hard for me to make a prediction with so many new and moving parts. What I do know, though, is that we can't get off to one of RR's characteristically slow, uninspired starts. That kind of hole is hard to dig out of, especially in our division now.

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But alas the weak O line IMO will limit the ceiling of all three.

Maybe.  Or maybe the OL is good enough with the right scheme to be fine.  We’re going to find out. 
 

I do think if EB really thought the OL was going to derail the offense and therefor another shot of him becoming a HC, I think they would have done something about it.  I also think it’s telling they fired the OL coach who a lot of folks thought was the best position coach on the team.  
 

I dunno. I think it could be better than a lot of folks think.  I also think it has the possibility of being an absolute train wreck. 
 

I also think very little of a lot of the analytics people.  PFF has been taken over by self absorbed self promoting bozos, in the mold of their dear leader.  
 

I think even less of the other National media people who tend to know nothing at all.

 

And people forget Vegas gets about 49% of the stuff wrong on purpose.  If they won too much people wouldn’t bet.   Having spent 10 years going to Vegas and essentially having a second life there for over a decade, I put less stock in their lines as predictors of the future and more in their ability to entice people to bet.

[LetThePointsSoar]

11-6

 

For NO other reason than it will be the perfect eff you to that clown to IMMEDIATELY win more than 10 games the second he leaves. 

[Bonez3]

I hate the Cowboys, so I think you guys will split with them. A blowout win for Dallas and a last second win for the Communists

[Koolblue13]

Arizona, Chicago and prolly Atlanta are the only games we should win before the bye. Denver and Giants maybe, but they should both be better.

 

5 wins at the bye and then we have the Rams and Jets that we should beat.

 

7 wins seems right if all goes well.

 

We like to start slow and if we lose that Arizona game, it could spiral fast. That's a pathetic game to lose, but would help in the draft race. Sucks that game one and draft position is important.

 

Bills Eagles early hurts. I suppose we could come out and beat the Cards and Broncos, then lose those next two, but beat the Bears and Falcons. NE and Seattle are beatable and then NY, Philly Miami.

[Conn]

9 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Choosing this early I picked us with 5 wins. The entire campaign revolves around Sam. This will be a learning year for him. This defense is solid. With a chance to be top 12-15. The offense is stacked with weapons as well. The OL is a question mark. Although they did bring in a couple of free agents that they apparently like. Howell is the wildcard. And having the QB position be your wildcard is not really a good thing. If we get the Howell we saw against Dallas last year this team may surprise. If we get what most 1st/2nd year NFL QB's look like it is a 5 win team IMO.

I think everything you say here is fair except that if the defense finishes middle of the pack it would be stunning and disastrous. If the defense were to be that average then we might actually hit the worst case scenario prognostications some in the media are making—that’s supposed to be an elite unit that carries the team—and even just a downright average season happening would depend on that. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Conn

[redskinss]

But seriously though, I think this is a season that could go either way.

I think we're similar to the Vikings last year but instead of mostly offense we'll be mostly defense and the majority of our games we'll be competitive in and it'll come down to whether we can close the deal more often than not like they did last year.

 

[Renegade7]

I wouldn't be shocked if we won the Denver and New England game.

 

I'm all in on Russell Wilson being done and Mac Jones is not who I thought he was.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Maybe.  Or maybe the OL is good enough with the right scheme to be fine.  We’re going to find out. 

 

Everything is "maybe".  Otherwise of course we can just make a fortune in Vegas every season, if the answers were known. 

 

@Koolblue13 did it well for me in a post weeks back, it got me laughing.  Something like if only we knew we can go with a weak O line lineup and simply scheme it away, we can revolutionize the sport.  Magic.

 

12 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

I do think if EB really thought the OL was going to derail the offense and therefor another shot of him becoming a HC, I think they would have done something about it.  I also think it’s telling they fired the OL coach who a lot of folks thought was the best position coach on the team.  

 

Keim more or less telegraphed their thinking each round before each day.  And each time he gave the vibe O line was the top desire each day but the board alas didn't fall their way until day 3.  Some talked about including from your boy Bram that they tried to trade up for Avila but were thwarted.  We got Mayhew even lamenting post draft that in some rounds he wished he was more aggressive. 

 

12 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

I dunno. I think it could be better than a lot of folks think.  I also think it has the possibility of being an absolute train wreck. 

 

I think you go all basis covered here just about except for the one that I think.  I dont think it will be better than people think.  I also don't think it will be an absolute train wreck. 

 

Brandon Thorn, O line draft guru, who I've followed on and off over the years said it well -- it depends on the matchups.  Mediocre-to bad O line versus a mediocre-to bad D line should be fine.  We have some games like that especially early.  Mediocre-to bad O line versus good to great D line -- bad recipe.  Greg Cosell who is far from a hater of this team, loves a lot of the dudes we drafed, summed it up well -- he likes a lot of this roster but can their O line handle for example the Eagles D line?  He thinks nope.  And hence its a mismatch.

 

I don't think we will see Wentz-Eagles game 1 where he was beaten to a pulp.  But in a key moment, lets say Dexter Lawrence will blow up S. Chartle with the game on the line.  At key monents, that unit is weak enough where it will thwart them out of the playoffs.  Just like last year.  

 

12 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

I also think very little of a lot of the analytics people.  PFF has been taken over by self absorbed self promoting bozos, in the mold of their dear leader.  
 

I think even less of the other National media people who tend to know nothing at all.

 

 

Rivera LOVED touting PFF when he got a good rating from them.  And loves to cite their scores.  So you'd be a bit at odds with him.  I don't personally live and die with PFF.  But I'd say they typically are at their best when they grade O line.  The units they tend to grade well before the season tend to play well, the units who they think suck, tend to suck.  

 

But will see, exceptions always exist.  PFF is far from on an island about this O line sucking.  And my opinion about this O line has nothing to do with this unit's grade from name that outfit. 

 

12 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

And people forget Vegas gets about 49% of the stuff wrong on purpose.  If they won too much people wouldn’t bet.   Having spent 10 years going to Vegas and essentially having a second life there for over a decade, I put less stock in their lines as predictors of the future and more in their ability to entice people to bet.

 

Keep in mind, I am going against Vegas and the national media.  They think this team is something along the lines of bad to sucking.    My thinking is they are wrong.  It's a so so team.  Our diference apparently is you don't think they are just wrong.  You think they are VERY wrong and its a going to be a good season.  I think you are wrong.  I hope you are right. 

 

I am typically more optimisitic than the national and local media about the team.  And the national-local media tended to be more accurate than me and other optimists over the years.  My larger optimism hasn't been vindicated at all. 

 

Heck last year, people here were goofing on the national media for goofying on Wentz.  And some (if I recall including you) were arguing Scott Turner is poised to be a head coach somewhere.

 

And that's cool.  Optimism reigns king at this time of the year.  The season is going to be great.  The haters are wrong, etc.  And I don't blame anyone from doing it.  I've done it, too at times.  It's no fun thinking otherwise.  

 

This time i am still more optimstic than the national media -- and I am squarely the same as most of the local media.   But I wish I felt like it is going to be a 10 plus winning season.   I genuinely wish I felt that way.  So I am jealous because I typically feel that way -- I just can't seem to muster it this time.  But I am excited about the roster and excited to see this regime gone so we can get someone more aggressive and savvy than what we got now to finish it.   

Edited July 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if we won the Denver and New England game.

 

I'm all in on Russell Wilson being done and Mac Jones is not who I thought he was.

 

I am counting on it as for the Denver game, am going to that one.

 

I like the first 2 game match ups for them.  IMO they should start 2-0.

 

As for Mac Jones, seems like he's a handful personality wise.   Am surprised about that.   But their offense was off kilter last year.  might be different with better coaching this year.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am counting on it as for the Denver game, am going to that one.

 

I like the first 2 game match ups for them.  IMO they should start 2-0.

 

As for Mac Jones, seems like he's a handful personality wise.   Am surprised about that.   But their offense was off kilter last year.  might be different with better coaching this year.

They need to start 2-0 and id be down with firing everybody (out of a cannon) if they lose either game.  And by everyone I mean Ron, Martin and Marty.  

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

They need to start 2-0 and id be down with firing everybody (out of a cannon) if they lose either game.  And by everyone I mean Ron, Martin and Marty.  

 

Neither team has much of a pass rush.  So for example, this O line should hold up fine against them.   They likely need to win both games to end up with a winning season.

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Neither team has much of a pass rush.  So for example, this O line should hold up fine against them.   They likely need to win both games to end up with a winning season.

Yeah. 
 

With any luck Howell gets the ball out before the OL can screw it up.  We’ll see.  Neither are projected to be great teams.  
 

I also think our defense should be able to stop both offenses.  At least if they play the way I’m expecting them to.  It would actually be great to get a shutout in one of the first 2 games. If I’m not mistaken, the last shutout we’ve pitched was 1991.  

[samy316]

22 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

They need to start 2-0 and id be down with firing everybody (out of a cannon) if they lose either game.  And by everyone I mean Ron, Martin and Marty.  

If they drop that home game against the Cardinals, Ron, Marty & Martin should walk home and be on speed dial with their agents for future NFL TV work.  The season is over if we lose to the consensus worst team in the league at home, in what should be a celebratory and party like atmosphere at Fed-Ex.  The Broncos on the other hand is tricky.  If they beat Arizona, but lose at Mile High to Russell Wilson, with Sean Payton as HC, I’m not going to completely freak out over that.

[88Comrade2000]

Ron doesn’t have them ready to play in game 1. It wouldn’t shock me one bit, if Arizona upsets us.  It would be typical Ron.

[Skinsinparadise]

33 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Ron doesn’t have them ready to play in game 1. It wouldn’t shock me one bit, if Arizona upsets us.  It would be typical Ron.

 

I think more typical Ron wouid be to lose the next game in Denver not the first one, similar to the set up last season where the first two games at the time also felt must win, with the first at home and the next on the road. 

 

Losing to Arizona would feel like a train wreck start.  Many think Arizona is the worst team in the NFL.  Personally, I'd be stunned.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Rook]

At this stage, the prediction I am 100% behind is that this team will lose some games it should win AND win some it should lose.

 

I also believe it will start slow. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Ron doesn’t have them ready to play in game 1. It wouldn’t shock me one bit, if Arizona upsets us.  It would be typical Ron.

You realize he’s 2-1 in openers don’t you? And the one they lost was against a good Chargers team where their starting QB played 16 snaps and (I think) Gibson turned the ball over late which destroyed any chance of a win. 
 

Week 1 is less of a problem for some reason than weeks 2-6.  Which is odd.  

7 hours ago, samy316 said:

If they beat Arizona, but lose at Mile High to Russell Wilson, with Sean Payton as HC, I’m not going to completely freak out over that.

Ron in year 4 with the defense we have should beat Sean in year 1 with a rebuilding team. 
 

They need to win both games.  Period.

 

I won’t freak out, but you’ve gotta win the games which you can win and the. Be competitive in other games and hope for a break here and there.  
 

Losing a winnable game with a razor edge chance to have a wining season dooms the team from the start. 

[petey hodge]

2023 Season Prediction Thread - So How Many Games Will We Win?

Edited July 8, 2023 by petey hodge

[samy316]

10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

You realize he’s 2-1 in openers don’t you? And the one they lost was against a good Chargers team where their starting QB played 16 snaps and (I think) Gibson turned the ball over late which destroyed any chance of a win. 
 

Week 1 is less of a problem for some reason than weeks 2-6.  Which is odd.  

Ron in year 4 with the defense we have should beat Sean in year 1 with a rebuilding team. 
 

They need to win both games.  Period.

 

I won’t freak out, but you’ve gotta win the games which you can win and the. Be competitive in other games and hope for a break here and there.  
 

Losing a winnable game with a razor edge chance to have a wining season dooms the team from the start. 

Yes, in theory they should win that Broncos game no excuses.  It’s funny, I don’t think of Denver as a rebuilding team.  They were a disaster last year, but I think that it was mainly the result of the coach and QB.  I’ve got a funny feeling that Russ isn’t completely shot like he looked last year.  Sean Payton as an HC is miles better than Nathaniel Hackett.  I think Denver will be one of those teams that shocks people this upcoming season, and gets to 10+ wins and a WC.  Denver’s defense is already really good, and Payton will work with Russ to get him to play to his strengths and utilize his athleticism.

 

I fear Denver’s defense.  They have the kind of defense that can wreck our O-Line, so I think we’ll lose a low scoring contest at Mile High.  While Russ was a major story last year, the Broncos defense kept them in almost every game they played.  I saw a stat somewhere that stated that no defense had ever allowed as few points as Denver had, with the record they ended up getting 5-12.  Before that Christmas game against the Rams where the Rams scored 51, Denver had been averaging giving up 15.6 points per game on Defense.  If Denver had just averaged 20ppg on offense, they would be 13-4. That’s almost incomprehensible.

Edited July 8, 2023 by samy316

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 hours ago, samy316 said:

Yes, in theory they should win that Broncos game no excuses.  It’s funny, I don’t think of Denver as a rebuilding team.  They were a disaster last year, but I think that it was mainly the result of the coach and QB.  I’ve got a funny feeling that Russ isn’t completely shot like he looked last year.  Sean Payton as an HC is miles better than Nathaniel Hackett.  I think Denver will be one of those teams that shocks people this upcoming season, and gets to 10+ wins and a WC.  Denver’s defense is already really good, and Payton will work with Russ to get him to play to his strengths and utilize his athleticism.

 

I fear Denver’s defense.  They have the kind of defense that can wreck our O-Line, so I think we’ll lose a low scoring contest at Mile High.  While Russ was a major story last year, the Broncos defense kept them in almost every game they played.  I saw a stat somewhere that stated that no defense had ever allowed as few points as Denver had, with the record they ended up getting 5-12.  Before that Christmas game against the Rams where the Rams scored 51, Denver had been averaging giving up 15.6 points per game on Defense.  If Denver had just averaged 20ppg on offense, they would be 13-4. That’s almost incomprehensible.

My second team I root for, because my wife's family is from Louisiana, are the Saints.  I follow them casually.  My wife follows them more closely.

 

I agree Sean Payton is a better coach than Hackett.  No question. He's even a good coach.  

 

But, for 3 consecutive years, his teams went 7-9 WITH Drew Brees passing for 5000+ yards.  I'm not sure he's as good a coach as the reputation he got. 

 

What he did an unbelievable job of is getting Brees into a situation where he could thrive. And he and Brees were basically of one mind on everything all the time.  It's like they shared an offensive brain.  Can he do that with Wilson?  Maybe.  We'll see. I actually have my doubts it will work as well as people think it will, just because I have paid somewhat closer attention to Payton than others, and I'm not sure he and Wilson are going go mesh.  They might.  But I'd put the odds around 50/50.

 

It's possible everything works out great, and they turn it around and become a force in the AFC West.  But it's just as likely the whole thing falls apart.  

 

The greatest chance is they are somewhat improved but not by a heck of a lot, at least not early.

 

And again, our defense really should be able to shut them down.  We should be able to win that game 13-10 if we need to.  

[redskinss]

5 hours ago, samy316 said:

I fear Denver’s defense.  They have the kind of defense that can wreck our O-Line, so I think we’ll lose a low scoring contest at Mile High.  While Russ was a major story last year, the Broncos defense kept them in almost every game they played.  I saw a stat somewhere that stated that no defense had ever allowed as few points as Denver had, with the record they ended up getting 5-12.  Before that Christmas game against the Rams where the Rams scored 51, Denver had been averaging giving up 15.6 points per game on Defense.  If Denver had just averaged 20ppg on offense, they would be 13-4. That’s almost incomprehensible.

Almost the exact same thing could be said for us last year and we won 3 and a half more games than they did.