2023 Season Prediction Thread - So How Many Games Will We Win?

88Comrade2000 · July 8, 2023

8-9, as I said in the other thread.

We start 1-4, Ron is fired after Bears game. Sam is benched. Eric becomes interim coach and goes 7-5. Jacoby plays 4 games and goes 2-2. Sam returns and finishes 5-3.

Eric gets a head coaching job elsewhere, though he does interview here. We spend assets to get one of the top qbs in the 24 draft. Sam starts until rookie qb is ready.

zCommander · July 8, 2023

19 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

8-9, as I said in the other thread.

We start 1-4, Ron is fired after Bears game. Sam is benched. Eric becomes interim coach and goes 7-5. Jacoby plays 4 games and goes 2-2. Sam returns and finishes 5-3.

Eric gets a head coaching job elsewhere, though he does interview here. We spend assets to get one of the top qbs in the 24 draft. Sam starts until rookie qb is ready.

Shortest horror love story I have ever read.

Edited July 9, 2023 by zCommander

samy316 · July 8, 2023

2 hours ago, redskinss said:

Almost the exact same thing could be said for us last year and we won 3 and a half more games than they did.

But the difference is that they have a bonafide HOF QB in Wilson, with (what looks like) a flukish down season, with an all time terrible coach in Nathaniel Hackett. If Payton gets Russ to play like pre-2022 Russ, the Broncos will win 10+games EASILY with that defense. We have a bottom 10 coach, and a 5th Round QB, with a lot of question marks on the offensive line and at TE. Not exactly the same.

redskinss · July 8, 2023

20 minutes ago, samy316 said:

But the difference is that they have a bonafide HOF QB in Wilson, with (what looks like) a flukish down season, with an all time terrible coach in Nathaniel Hackett. If Payton gets Russ to play like pre-2022 Russ, the Broncos will win 10+games EASILY with that defense. We have a bottom 10 coach, and a 5th Round QB, with a lot of question marks on the offensive line and at TE. Not exactly the same.

Why does it look like a flukish down season, how could you possibly know that at this juncture?

He very well could be washed too.

Payton had Brees for all his successful years in New Orleans it's possible he could be far less successful without Drew Brees ala Belichick so far without Brady.

Guess we'll see but I think we have as much chance of winning week two as the broncos do.

Skinsinparadise · July 8, 2023

8 hours ago, samy316 said:

I fear Denver’s defense. They have the kind of defense that can wreck our O-Line, so I think we’ll lose a low scoring contest at Mile High.

They had one of the worst sack rates in the league last year. They were not a blow up the O line type of defense.

But they do have a really good back 7. Really good secondary.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise · July 8, 2023

Not that pressure is the be all and end all for a defense. But I think to thwart this offense specifically it will be an X factor. I think we for that reason will match up well with teams who don't put a lot of heat on the QB and conversely struggle with those who do.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/sack-pct

NFL Team Sack Percentage

More Team Stats...

Season: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Date:

Rank	Team	2022	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2021
1	Philadelphia	11.05%	10.00%	0.00%	10.88%	11.25%	5.01%
2	New England	8.31%	4.65%	6.06%	10.00%	6.94%	6.01%
3	Dallas	8.25%	5.79%	6.45%	7.84%	8.59%	6.05%
4	New Orleans	8.22%	11.36%	11.76%	9.60%	7.19%	7.21%
5	Kansas City	7.99%	7.09%	5.00%	7.53%	8.41%	4.71%
6	Washington	7.72%	10.34%	2.56%	6.13%	9.72%	5.98%
7	Baltimore	7.68%	7.34%	11.11%	7.07%	8.12%	5.19%
8	Indianapolis	7.57%	5.00%	2.44%	8.24%	7.06%	5.24%
9	NY Jets	7.49%	6.19%	3.13%	7.07%	7.86%	5.32%
10	Seattle	7.38%	8.93%	3.23%	9.15%	5.56%	4.91%
11	Tampa Bay	7.09%	4.76%	2.94%	7.12%	7.06%	6.28%
12	LA Chargers	7.07%	7.22%	4.08%	8.46%	5.99%	5.89%
13	Houston	6.95%	8.42%	5.41%	5.77%	7.97%	5.54%
14	Pittsburgh	6.87%	12.09%	19.44%	6.93%	6.82%	8.77%
15	Green Bay	6.64%	5.05%	2.86%	9.28%	4.36%	6.47%
16	San Francisco	6.63%	4.90%	3.85%	6.05%	7.44%	8.30%
17	Miami	6.62%	8.70%	15.22%	6.31%	6.90%	7.32%
18	Detroit	6.51%	11.39%	6.90%	7.14%	5.62%	5.23%
19	Buffalo	6.47%	4.72%	2.70%	6.10%	6.90%	7.13%
20	LA Rams	6.40%	8.49%	8.82%	9.06%	4.09%	7.39%
21	NY Giants	6.23%	3.88%	4.00%	8.31%	4.56%	5.27%
22	Cleveland	6.15%	5.26%	3.33%	5.96%	6.34%	6.95%
23	Minnesota	5.92%	5.32%	7.89%	5.68%	6.25%	7.53%
24	Arizona	5.72%	5.05%	16.67%	3.10%	8.50%	6.76%
25	Carolina	5.69%	5.08%	3.85%	5.12%	6.36%	7.04%
26	Denver	5.62%	0.87%	2.22%	7.28%	4.00%	6.02%
27	Tennessee	5.49%	2.78%	3.03%	5.59%	5.41%	7.25%
28	Jacksonville	5.29%	6.03%	0.00%	7.30%	4.04%	5.57%
29	Cincinnati	5.08%	5.00%	6.52%	5.43%	4.85%	6.22%
30	Las Vegas	4.38%	1.96%	7.14%	4.41%	4.35%	5.47%
31	Chicago	3.99%	3.30%	0.00%	3.64%	4.42%	9.32%
32	Atlanta	3.61%	2.15%	0.00%	3.70%	3.49%	3.03%

Command The 414 · July 8, 2023

9-8 maybe even 10-7 at best, our division alone is going to be our achilles heel imho… I can see us easily losing 4 or 5 gms alone battling the NFC East

Conn · July 9, 2023

5 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

8-9, as I said in the other thread.

We start 1-4, Ron is fired after Bears game. Sam is benched. Eric becomes interim coach and goes 7-5. Jacoby plays 4 games and goes 2-2. Sam returns and finishes 5-3.

Eric gets a head coaching job elsewhere, though he does interview here. We spend assets to get one of the top qbs in the 24 draft. Sam starts until rookie qb is ready.

you thought this wild shot in the dark was such a prophecy of a post that you decided it needed to go up again? lol with such a specific call you’ll either crow about it forever if it happens, or never mention it again the next time you have a really strong prediction you want to post with such surety

Voice_of_Reason · July 9, 2023

People keep bringing up Vegas projected wins, and the idiot national people use them as a backstop for lazy commentary. So I decided to go back and take a quick peek at 2022's Vegas win projections, and then compare them to what actually happened. These Vegas Over/Under numbers are from August 24th 2022 from Fan Duel. Difference is absolute value, doesn't matter which one was higher.

Team	Vegas Over/Under Number	Actual Wins	Difference
Colts	10	4	6
Rams	10.5	5	5.5
Broncos	10	5	5
Eagles	9.5	14	4.5
Cardinals	8.5	4	4.5
Vikings	9	13	4
Buccaneers	11.5	8	3.5
Chiefs	10.5	14	3.5
Bears	6.5	3	3.5
Seahawks	5.5	9	3.5
Packers	11	8	3
49ers	10	13	3
Browns	9.5	7	2.5
Raiders	8.5	6	2.5
Lions	6.5	9	2.5
Jaguars	6.5	9	2.5
Cowboys	10	12	2
Bengals	10	12	2
Titans	9	7	2
Giants	7	9	2
Falcons	5	7	2
Bills	11.5	13	1.5
Saints	8.5	7	1.5
Browns	8.5	7	1.5
Steelers	7.5	9	1.5
Jets	5.5	7	1.5
Texans	4.5	3	1.5
Ravens	9.5	10	0.5
Patriots	8.5	8	0.5
Panthers	6.5	7	0.5
Chargers	10	10	0
Dolphins	9	9	0
Commanders	8	8	0

-- 12 of the 30 teams, Vegas's over/under number was off by at least 3 games.

-- 9 of the 30 teams, Vegas's over/under number was off by 2 or 2.5 games. That's relatively close, but in a 17 game season, that's still a difference of 12%

-- 11 of 30 teams, they had a 1.5 or less difference.

-- Included in the 11, Vegas basically hit the nail on the head 3 times, and were off by half a game 3 more times.

So what does all that mean? It means 2 things:

1. The NFL is maddeningly difficult to predict year over year. It's even difficult to predict week to week. Vegas doesn't even do it really well ... from a predictive perspective. They do it exceptionally well from a "get the public to bet and make money" perspective.

2. The National Media use Vegas lines to aid them in their lazy coverage of the NFL. But, about a 3rd of the lines from last year were off by 3+ games, and for 3 teams it was off by 5+ games.

3. People need to remember Vegas does not set the lines based on what they think the outcome will be. They set the lines based on what they believe will get somewhat even betting on either side of the number. And people's perception of how good a team is influences the odds.

I think I've finally reached the point with the sports media that I reached with the general news media a few years ago: with a few notable exceptions, they're all pontificating idiots. Some use numbers/analytics to base their arguments on and they sound smart because of it, but they still know virtually nothing. And sometimes when I hear them talk, I wonder if they didn't have the point they wanted to make and then came up with the analytics to support it. Some don't even have that, and they're just pontificating idiots.

So, shrug. Vegas and the national media might be right about any team, or they might be wrong. But chances are that has less to do with analysis and analytic skill than it does the fact even a broken clock is right twice a day. (An old fashioned, analog, non-digital clock, that is.)

My prediction is simple: I don't see a ton of difference between this team and last years team so I'm expecting about the same results. I think they're going to be a little better on defense, specifically in the secondary. I don't think they're objectively worse on offense. Maybe the same, maybe a smidge better.

So, last year they went 8-8-1. This year, I think they're in the same ballpark. Something extrodinary would have to happen for them to be significantly better or worse. If Howell is the next Drew Brees, then that could be exceptionally good, but nobody is predicting that. National Media idiots seem to be predicting the bottom will fall out. They have no idea (in general) why. Just that we have a 5th round QB starting. Could something go horribly wrong? Yeah. Allen/Payne could both get hurt, the secondary could implode, who knows. But something exceptional would have to happen in order for the team to bottom out.

samy316 · July 9, 2023

7 hours ago, redskinss said:

Why does it look like a flukish down season, how could you possibly know that at this juncture?

He very well could be washed too.

Payton had Brees for all his successful years in New Orleans it's possible he could be far less successful without Drew Brees ala Belichick so far without Brady.

Guess we'll see but I think we have as much chance of winning week two as the broncos do.

Because he was incredible for the first 10 seasons of his career with the same coach. I have a sneaky suspicion that last year was more about how Hackett absolutely sucked as an HC rather than Russ falling off a cliff as a QB. He could be washed, but I don't buy that he's now a bottom third QB based on how he looked last year. If we beat Denver, it's going to be a 16-13 or 17-14 type game, where both defenses tee off on each other.

philibusters · July 9, 2023

7 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think I've finally reached the point with the sports media that I reached with the general news media a few years ago: with a few notable exceptions, they're all pontificating idiots. Some use numbers/analytics to base their arguments on and they sound smart because of it, but they still know virtually nothing. And sometimes when I hear them talk, I wonder if they didn't have the point they wanted to make and then came up with the analytics to support it. Some don't even have that, and they're just pontificating idiots.

Quick hot takes get the most reaction. Well reasoned long take views don't get as much audience response. That is true whether its the news or sports.

Skinsinparadise · July 9, 2023

9 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So, shrug. Vegas and the national media might be right about any team, or they might be wrong. But chances are that has less to do with analysis and analytic skill than it does the fact even a broken clock is right twice a day. (An old fashioned, analog, non-digital clock, that is.)

My prediction is simple: I don't see a ton of difference between this team and last years team so I'm expecting about the same results. I think they're going to be a little better on defense, specifically in the secondary. I don't think they're objectively worse on offense. Maybe the same, maybe a smidge better.

So, last year they went 8-8-1. This year, I think they're in the same ballpark. Something extrodinary would have to happen for them to be significantly better or worse. If Howell is the next Drew Brees, then that could be exceptionally good, but nobody is predicting that. National Media idiots seem to be predicting the bottom will fall out. They have no idea (in general) why. Just that we have a 5th round QB starting. Could something go horribly wrong? Yeah. Allen/Payne could both get hurt, the secondary could implode, who knows. But something exceptional would have to happen in order for the team to bottom out.

The comments on the national media I think is mostly about being stunned how down they are on this team. I don't think this is a playoff team but don't think they suck either like most of them do. But its so wild and so in your face its tough to ignore and not comment on it. Your guy, Bram has commented on it multiple times. Sheehan in his last podcast went over it and more.

One commentator though I think naiiled the reasons for the pessimism.

A. People don't like to bet on a young QB who isn't proven. The odds run against you on that front.

B. Of all teams, this is the last one some outside observor is going to bet on trust us on THIS QB. It's been a comedy of errors at that spot forever. So if there is a team who hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt its this one.

C. It's been a loser franchise in general. The easier bet is to bet against loser franchises.

I at the start of the off season argued with some who expected a worse season than last -- by arguing QB should be better and the O line will be much better so how can it get worse? I've adjusted my take on that though with the benefit of the off season. The O line IMO is at best marginally better. I do think its going to suck again and I didn't expect that at the beginning of the off season. But more on point, I like the off seasons of our division rivals. Then you add a tough schedule in theory, last year we had an easy one. It feels like 8-9.

I am typically 1-2 games more optimstic than I should be about the season. I am usually doing what you did here, predicting 10 wins. I wouldn't be stunned if they won 10 but I'd be surprised. In my book, everything that has to be right, would have gone right for that to happen, all of it.

Edited July 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

samy316 · July 9, 2023

Look, the main takeaway is that this team’s perception is always going to be negative, and based on previous history, until this team starts to win big games, and have playoff success. Anybody predicting doom is simply going off of previous seasons and data suggesting the most likely outcome with this team. The people who are shocked at the media’s perception of us for this coming season, are not living in reality. Until we prove otherwise, this team will ALWAYS be at the bottom of everyone’s list. Just because we will have a new owner here within 2 weeks, doesn’t make the previous 25 years of suck go away. That stink resonates with you for a LONG time. Could we have a successful season where we make the playoffs? Yes, it’s possible, but due to the uncertainty at QB and at O-Line, and having Ron Rivera as a coach, it’s certainly a long shot.

Edited July 9, 2023 by samy316

Skinsinparadise · July 9, 2023

26 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Look, the main takeaway is that this team’s perception is always going to be negative, and based on previous history, until this team starts to win big games, and have playoff success. Anybody predicting doom is simply going off of previous seasons and data suggesting the most likely outcome with this team. The people who are shocked at the media’s perception of us for this coming season, are not living in reality. Until we prove otherwise, this team will ALWAYS be at the bottom of everyone’s list. Just because we will have a new owner here within 2 weeks, doesn’t make the previous 25 years of suck go away. That stink resonates with you for a LONG time. Could we have a successful season where we make the playoffs? Yes, it’s possible, but due to the uncertainty at QB and at O-Line, and having Ron Rivera as a coach, it’s certainly a long shot.

Yeah that's most of this, I agree.

For example, as bad as the Jets have been and they are getting some love now for having Rodgers -- there is still some narrative that heck its the Jets, something is bound to go wrong.

Washingon is Washington.

I think that will change over time but its the stench that Dan left us with for now.

https://www.nbcsportswashington.com/commanders/ex-giants-head-coach-ben-mcadoo-takes-shots-at-the-redskins-eagles-and-cowboys/322695/

And despite a rollercoaster of a season that also included general manager Jerry Reese's firing, McAdoo foresees the Giants winning the division in 2018, taking several shots at their fellow NFC East teams in proving his point.

I think Philly, how much success has Philly had?” McAdoo said. “I think they’re gonna have a hard time handling success. Dallas, I like their offensive line, but how long have we been saying that? Their defense, they got a bunch of young guys playing DB, Sean Lee is banged up a lot, and their D-line, they got a bunch of guys getting in trouble all the time. And Washington is Washington, right?

88Comrade2000 · July 9, 2023

Jets have a killer schedule early on. If they get thru that with a winning record, than maybe the same ole Jets goes away for 23.

If you Sam Clubbers are right, then this team needs to start 3-2 or better and not have a losing record at any point in the season. Then you discard same ole Washington.

tomwvr · July 9, 2023

On 7/5/2023 at 1:06 AM, 88Comrade2000 said:

Of course we can, just like we can be better.

Starting essentially a rookie at qb, unknown if additions to oline improve the line or not.

We could easily see 6-11, 7-10 or 8-9. I think your pushing it, expecting anything beyond 9-8.

With our receiver corp, our entire defense and the minor improvements on Oline I don't see how we are worse than last year. Our vet qb lost 2 games for us on his own and our back up lost a game or two also. Howell if not awful won't lose 4 games on his own and with the improvements on defense and the online we should be able to win 8-11 games

samy316 · July 9, 2023

2 hours ago, tomwvr said:

With our receiver corp, our entire defense and the minor improvements on Oline I don't see how we are worse than last year. Our vet qb lost 2 games for us on his own and our back up lost a game or two also. Howell if not awful won't lose 4 games on his own and with the improvements on defense and the online we should be able to win 8-11 games

MINOR is the key word here. If Minor means going from absolute disaster to just plain old bad, that won’t be enough to get us to 9+ wins. Let’s not forget that Howell is essentially a rookie QB, so while he might not be as awful as {redacted} or Wentz, he’s going to have games where he turns the ball over at inopportune times, and he’ll have a few stinker, along with a few gems like all rookie QB’s. The key here is how the O-Line will protect Howell. If Howell struggles out of the gate, the line will make things MUCH worse by allowing pressure and sacks. I just don’t see any plausible scenario where we win more than 10+ games, unless Howell is Mahommes-lite OR the O-Line shocks us all by being a competent unit. I doubt either scenario happens.

Edited July 9, 2023 by samy316

tomwvr · July 9, 2023

1 hour ago, samy316 said:

MINOR is the key word here. If Minor means going from absolute disaster to just plain old bad, that won’t be enough to get us to 9+ wins. Let’s not forget that Howell is essentially a rookie QB, so while he might not be as awful as {redacted} or Wentz, he’s going to have games where he turns the ball over at inopportune times, and he’ll have a few stinker, along with a few gems like all rookie QB’s. The key here is how the O-Line will protect Howell. If Howell struggles out of the gate, the line will make things MUCH worse by allowing pressure and sacks. I just don’t see any plausible scenario where we win more than 10+ games, unless Howell is Mahommes-lite OR the O-Line shocks us all by being a competent unit. I doubt either scenario happens.

I see 8-10 wins. I always go to the optimistic pick for us so I can be more disappointed as the season goes on. I see us starting 2-0 then 2-2 then 4-2 followed by 4-4 then 7-4 then 7-6 followed by 9-7 and the dallas games gives us 9-8 or 10-7 and no playoffs

Edited July 9, 2023 by tomwvr

Redskins 2021 · July 9, 2023

Somewhere between 6-11 and 11-6. My hope is a 10 win season. Most likely 7 or 8 wins. Does 10 wins get you into the playoffs?

Edited July 9, 2023 by Redskins 2021

Skinsinparadise · July 9, 2023

On 7/5/2023 at 9:57 AM, Koolblue13 said:

I think we're a double digit loss team, but good enough to not be drafting in the top 10.

if this dude is right then hello Caleb Williams

zCommander · July 10, 2023

@Skinsinparadise I am going to give you my prediction that counters the tweet above. I am looking at, clearly, a 6-2 start after 8 games. 😁

Skinsinparadise · July 10, 2023

4 minutes ago, zCommander said:

@Skinsinparadise I am going to give you my prediction that counters the tweet above. I am looking at, clearly, a 6-2 start after 8 games. 😁

Cool, my guess is a 4-4 start

Conn · July 10, 2023

Imagine a qualified GM (and his hand-picked coach and their staff) inheriting this roster and immediately getting to draft Caleb Williams at 1.01 after spending some FA money on the OL. That would be a dream scenario and worth a very miserable final season of Rivera. We’d rise even faster than the Bengals did after selecting Burrow—in a much weaker conference.

Renegade7 · July 10, 2023

39 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

if this dude is right then hello Caleb Williams

I only see 3 games in the first 8 I wouldn't bet on us to win. The problem again is the slow start habit, but hard as overall schedule is, games like SF and finale to close it out are at home.

Rex Tomb · July 10, 2023

10 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

I only see 3 games in the first 8 I wouldn't bet on us to win. The problem again is the slow start habit, but hard as overall schedule is, games like SF and finale to close it out are at home.

I actually wonder if EB isn't going to light a fire and sense of urgency under the offense. Certainly sounds like he's having a big impact in terms of practice habits and even has quite a bit of say in the plan for each practice. I wonder if we don't come out swinging and really shake the "slow start" reputation.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Rex Tomb

2023 Season Prediction Thread - So How Many Games Will We Win?

Predict The Season 86 members have voted

1. What Will Be Our Season Record?

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