2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Chump Bailey]

15 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

I can't see a team drafting Penix with a high first with his medical history.

 

I think his performance in the Sugar Bowl alleviated at least some of that concern. If he continues putting on a show, I don't see how he makes it out of the 1st. He's a legit riser and he throws the best deep ball of any them IMO. 
 

[RWJ]

7 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I think his performance in the Sugar Bowl alleviated at least some of that concern. If he continues putting on a show, I don't see how he makes it out of the 1st. He's a legit riser and he throws the best deep ball of any them IMO. 
 

If the "IFs" play out, I agree. 

Edited January 3 by RWJ

[Skins199021]

50 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You have to take into account what he had to work with as well. Maye was under pressure more than any other NCAA QB in 2023. He was pressured on 37% of his drop backs. Dead last in college football. Yet he was only sacked 29 times. He led college football in big time throws with that pressure rate with 45. Caleb Williams was second in that category by the way. Maye also had one of the highest drop rates in the NCAA. He led the nation in total scrambles as well. He was 6th nationally with 79 total 1st downs vs. pressure. Mayes advanced stats, especially vs. pressure, are amazing when you consider he had absolutely no help at all. 

I don’t know usually an ultra talented QB can carry a whole program

 

I am an SC fan, and rattler more or less put the same type of numbers as Maye in 2023 He also had no O line or running game. 

I’d say against better competition 

 

he had Legette that’s it. I wouldn’t draft Rattler (a former preseason H-man pick) before the 3rd to 4th round 

 

When I watched Maye I see a lot of the same flaws that Howell has. Random idiotic throws and seemingly slow to process after the first read.

 

I’ll be in the minority, but if Penix lights up Michigan in a way Stroud did last year against UGA… that would be extremely telling to me to the point where if we were 110% sure on his medicals…. I’d take him over Maye and Daniels 

[ThatNFLChick]

27 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

I don’t know usually an ultra talented QB can carry a whole program

 

I am an SC fan, and rattler more or less put the same type of numbers as Maye in 2023 He also had no O line or running game. 

I’d say against better competition 

 

he had Legette that’s it. I wouldn’t draft Rattler (a former preseason H-man pick) before the 3rd to 4th round 

 

When I watched Maye I see a lot of the same flaws that Howell has. Random idiotic throws and seemingly slow to process after the first read.

 

I’ll be in the minority, but if Penix lights up Michigan in a way Stroud did last year against UGA… that would be extremely telling to me to the point where if we were 110% sure on his medicals…. I’d take him over Maye and Daniels 

 

I 100% agree with you. Those are big IFs but if Penix balls out against that Michigan defense (and shows off some of the mobility he did in the Texas game) and the team checks on his medicals and he's fine I'd take him over both too. Its funny you mentioned Stroud, he was always my #1, but after the UGA game I couldn't believe Young was even being considered as the best in the draft. 

Edited January 3 by ThatNFLChick

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

I don’t know usually an ultra talented QB can carry a whole program

 

I am an SC fan, and rattler more or less put the same type of numbers as Maye in 2023 He also had no O line or running game. 

I’d say against better competition 

 

he had Legette that’s it. I wouldn’t draft Rattler (a former preseason H-man pick) before the 3rd to 4th round 

 

When I watched Maye I see a lot of the same flaws that Howell has. Random idiotic throws and seemingly slow to process after the first read.

 

I’ll be in the minority, but if Penix lights up Michigan in a way Stroud did last year against UGA… that would be extremely telling to me to the point where if we were 110% sure on his medicals…. I’d take him over Maye and Daniels 

Penix is my #4. He would be my #3 if not for being a walking season ending injury waiting to happen. He is gonna fall. They question is how far. I think the end of the 1st somewhere is where someone will take the risk. The financial risk is far lower there. 

 

And actually Rattlers stats dont compare to Mayes at all.

Edited January 3 by clskinsfan

[Ball Security]

12 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

I don’t know usually an ultra talented QB can carry a whole program

 

I am an SC fan, and rattler more or less put the same type of numbers as Maye in 2023 He also had no O line or running game. 

I’d say against better competition 

 

he had Legette that’s it. I wouldn’t draft Rattler (a former preseason H-man pick) before the 3rd to 4th round 

 

When I watched Maye I see a lot of the same flaws that Howell has. Random idiotic throws and seemingly slow to process after the first read.

 

I’ll be in the minority, but if Penix lights up Michigan in a way Stroud did last year against UGA… that would be extremely telling to me to the point where if we were 110% sure on his medicals…. I’d take him over Maye and Daniels 

I know a pretty decent QB that was 5-7 the year before he came out.

[FootballZombie]

22 minutes ago, RWJ said:

 

 

 

Comparable levels of Disrespect:

 

[skinsfan66]

43 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

To say his schedule was extremely weak is an understatement which is why I don't put much stock in him not having elite players, he also did not have elite or even tough competition at all. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Skins199021 said:

I will say Michael Penix’s game against Texas from start to finish was one of the best I’ve seen a QB have in a long time 

 

that’s legit 

I posted that after the Bowl game, none of the top 3 have a game that could match that. 

[RWJ]

23 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Comparable levels of Disrespect:

 

, NOT

[Skins199021]

46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Penix is my #4. He would be my #3 if not for being a walking season ending injury waiting to happen. He is gonna fall. They question is how far. I think the end of the 1st somewhere is where someone will take the risk. The financial risk is far lower there. 

 

And actually Rattlers stats dont compare to Mayes at all.

I don’t see him getting out of the top 10 if his medicals are clear 

 

I see him going ahead of Daniels if he lights up Michigans Defense 

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, RWJ said:

Who you got as the best QB, in your opinion in the draft, right now, KDawg!  

The best QB right now? Like actual QB, that does the most well and has been fairly consistent?

 

Bo Nix or Michael Penix.

 

The one who showed the most promise this year? Jayden Daniels.

 

The one who has more red flags than anyone but his green flags are so green they’re radioactive? Caleb Williams.

 

The most overall prototypical guy? Maye.

 

The most underrated? Spencer Rattler. 

 

It’s hard to have this conversation…

 

The thing with the draft is that you have to project a little to determine which guys are worth taking atop the draft. Often it’s not the guy who has the best stats. It’s a guy that produced and has shown the ability to be consistent and available.

 

I think there are, legitimately, 8-9 QBs in this draft who could turn out to be really, really special.

 

I also think there are those same 8-9 who have really high bust factors. 
 

The team that winds up with the best quarterback ultimately will be the one who fosters them, brings them in to a favorable situation and does the most and best research.

 

Something I’ll do as we get closer to the draft is pick who I think has the most potential to hit. But I need time

and datapoints and it’s way too early.

Edited January 3 by KDawg

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

You have to take into account what he had to work with as well. Maye was under pressure more than any other NCAA QB in 2023. He was pressured on 37% of his drop backs. Dead last in college football. Yet he was only sacked 29 times. He led college football in big time throws with that pressure rate with 45. Caleb Williams was second in that category by the way. Maye also had one of the highest drop rates in the NCAA. He led the nation in total scrambles as well. He was 6th nationally with 79 total 1st downs vs. pressure. Mayes advanced stats, especially vs. pressure, are amazing when you consider he had absolutely no help at all. 

 

Yep and he had to change offenses too this year, change of coordinators.

 

To my eyes he was better last year under Longo.  His stats back it up. 

 

Meh supporting cast.  Downs > Walker.  And in 2022 he had both guys.   Among the top QBs in this class he had the highest drop rate for his receivers, double or close to double more drops than what some of the other QBs had. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

38 minutes ago, KDawg said:

The best QB right now? Like actual QB, that does the most well and has been fairly consistent?

 

Bo Nix or Michael Penix.

 

The one who showed the most promise this year? Jayden Daniels.

 

The one who has more red flags than anyone but his green flags are so green they’re radioactive? Caleb Williams.

 

The most overall prototypical guy? Maye.

 

The most underrated? Spencer Rattler. 

 

It’s hard to have this conversation…

 

The thing with the draft is that you have to project a little to determine which guys are worth taking atop the draft. Often it’s not the guy who has the best stats. It’s a guy that produced and has shown the ability to be consistent and available.

 

I think there are, legitimately, 8-9 QBs in this draft who could turn out to be really, really special.

 

I also think there are those same 8-9 who have really high bust factors. 
 

The team that winds up with the best quarterback ultimately will be the one who fosters them, brings them in to a favorable situation and does the most and best research.

 

Something I’ll do as we get closer to the draft is pick who I think has the most potential to hit. But I need time

and datapoints and it’s way too early.

 

I need to watch more of Bo Nix but my initial impression is a rich man's Colt McCoy.  Not high ceiling but floor is high enough where he will have a job in this league for a long time, maybe as a backup but he has a shot as a starter.

 

Penix not ready to comment on.

 

Caleb i am sold on but I don't know enough about his personality-make up.  Highest ceiling in this class.

 

I've watched the most Daniels and Maye.  And I''ve read enough to be sold on their personality and make up.  No red flags on Maye.  A little on Daniels in that some of his teammates from Arizona seemed happy to see him go, and when his LSU coaches talked up how he found his committment this off season it made me wonder what about before.  But otherwise on the aggregate Daniels seems a good dude.

 

Maye to me has a high floor, high ceiling but the ceiling isn't as high as Williams.

 

Daniels strikes me as either a superstar or a bust-injury prone pro.  I lean though postive,

 

If I had to bet on QBs who will hit in the context of being franchise QBs to me its Williams (if his personality checks out) and Maye.   Daniels is more of a wildcard.  I look forward to watching Penix.

[ThatNFLChick]

Not enough Jayden Daniels in this thread

 

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

We all saw Penix latest game against Texas, now go back and watch his first game this season. Is it just me or does his release and throwing motion look better now? Everything looks quicker and more natural.

59 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Not enough Jayden Daniels in this thread

 

 

 

 

Some great throws to Nabers there, but also highlights how good Nabers is. Difficult catches with defenders trying to grab a hand and he still plucks it with both hands while in a normal run.

 

It's gotta be hard for defenders to time when to really sell out to deflect the pass...and oops the balls already there.

[skinsfan66]

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Not enough Jayden Daniels in this thread

 

 

 

He needs to learn to slide or he is going to go the way of RG3. Takes a lot of big hits. They did not miss him in the Bowl game.   

[Chump Bailey]

Good 3-Tech DT I missed.

 

Jaden Crumedy Mississippi State

[Chump Bailey]

Debo Williams LB South Carolina is good. Too bad he is returning. 

Edited January 4 by Chump Bailey

[Going Commando]

9 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

This is the same Hasselbeck that said Sam was the future and he believed in him? Him?

 

Everyone can find some media personality who loves their guy. The numbers need to back it up and I def don't think they do for some of the guys this board loves. 

 

Basing prospect evaluation almost entirely off obscure, decontextualized stats is ridiculously inadequate for football.

 

That's the kind of analysis that leads to the "Greg McElroy is the next Tom Brady" style takes.

[method man]

9 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Sorry but saying Maye is a better prospect than Burrow is absolute nonsense. I mean, he's entitled to his opinion but there is not a single stat/data point/level of competition, etc to back that up. 

You can compare their numbers and production by age. 

[Warhead36]

Maye is a killer. Love his cold cyborg-like mentality. We should be thrilled if hes there for us to take. 

[Panninho]

12 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Sorry but saying Maye is a better prospect than Burrow is absolute nonsense. I mean, he's entitled to his opinion but there is not a single stat/data point/level of competition, etc to back that up. 

 

I have no stakes in this conversation because I also find it exhausting to some degree. But let's not pretend that people didn't have their question marks on Burrow also. Yeah his numbers were all great and his season was historic but he wasn't able to win the starting job at Ohio State before he transferred to LSU and as a consequence his breakout season was pretty late (he was already 23 when he was drafted). The context of his performance was also often referred to as he had one of the best supporting casts in college football history. I mean his two WRs are now two of the top 3 WRs in the NLF and he also had another 2nd round WR and a first round RB to round out the skill positions. His OC was also highly touted and now runs the offense for the Bills. The pressure to sack ratio, that is often mentioned as a reliable and stable indicator and as an argument against Maye and Williams also did not work in his favor. All of that factored into the Burrow discussion back then.

So looking back now, Burrow might seem like the easiest QB to scout these last couple of years because he basically answered all of those question marks but these question marks still existed. Maybe there are some analysts who feel more confident in their evalutation of one the top 2 QBs this year. Caleb Williams has been the designated #1 overall pick for the last 3 years I think. He has been in the spotlight for his entire college career and is not a late riser like Burrow. Maye similarly blew people away as a sophomore and backed that up with another solid season now. Why is it so out of this world to think that there are analysts that truely feel like these players are special when most of the draft community has loved them for at least 2 college seasons now?

 

I don't think anyone claims these two will be better than NFL Burrow. But just like MHJ this year, many analysts had Chase Young as the best overall player in the 2020 draft class. NFL.com gave Burrow a 7.07/8 grade which was 4th best in the class behind Young, Okudah and Brown. You may have felt very confident about Burrow back then and if you were, you were obviously right. But not everyone felt so sure, for whatever reasons. I don't think it is absolute nonsense if someone feels more confident in one of the talents now than back then if we take the NFL Burrow out of the equation. Evaluating quarterbacks is so difficult that even the best in the business regularly get it wrong.

[Going Commando]

Penix is the guy I hope the Giants draft.  I don't think there is anything special about him.  Ball placement and arm talent are ordinary.  Field vision and creativity are meh.  Ability to read pressure and scramble are sub par.  Release is low and elongated, which coupled with his tendency to drift into pressure means batted balls.

 

He's a sixth year senior playing behind the Joe Moore line in a gimmick heavy offense throwing to three good receivers.  He also has a terrible medical history.  He's not in the same world as a prospect as Drake Maye and Caleb Williams.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

I wasn't even willing to watch Maye earlier in the season because I felt he'd be out of reach.  Why?  Because as someone here among others who has followed the draft like religion, he was billed as one of those QBs that's slam dunk going 1 or 2 and is a special talent.   

 

I can recall predraft hype over the years well -- Maye was in that higher orbit of QB hype.   Much closer and in the range of the Lawrence, Luck, Burrow hype range then he was the Winston, Murray, Alex Smith range.

 

I am in the camp that ithe hype is warranted.    We need to finish #2.  Am doubting We'd have a shot at either Caleb or Maye picking after that.  And while Jayden to me is a good get too.  I'd want to at least have that choice where am not boxed into the 3rd QB taken.

 

I was just reading this morning Ian Cummings full take on Maye.  I like Cummings and he can be cynical about some players.  He's in that group of people who think he should go #1.  Bruce Feldman said there is a group (minority) of scouts who think Drake is QB #1.  For me I'd still go Caleb but Maye is close.  And Daniels just after those 2.  We'd be in great shape IMO if we end up with a top 3 pick.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/drake-maye-draft-scouting-2024/

Current Draft Projection and Summary

Drake Maye is my QB1 in the 2024 NFL Draft, and a top-three prospect along with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Caleb Williams. It’s close between him and Williams for QB1, but Maye arguably has the best balance of physical talent and operational utility.

Maye and Williams have some differentiating factors within their archetypes. As athletic as Maye is, there’s simply no matching Williams’ hyper-elite creation capacity and arm elasticity off-script.

But while Williams is the superior creator, Maye is a very capable creator in his own right, with elite arm talent, spry and fluid athleticism, and effortless off-platform ability.

Beyond his natural talent, Maye shows off very promising operational qualities for a young QB. There are still a few mechanical issues for him to chip away at, and his occasional lapses in decision making can be frustrating. But overall, Maye’s mental game is just as exciting as his physical upside.

 

Maye is a measured, precise, and instinctive passer who can test defenses in the intermediate and deep ranges. He’s better than Williams at maintaining pocket discipline, staying on rhythm, and taking what’s given in the short range, and he can carve defenses apart in the intermediate range with his anticipatory high-velocity javelins.

In fact, one of Maye’s most exciting traits is his actionable field vision and anticipation. He identifies leverage advantages in coverages instantly, and he can capitalize just as quickly.

Maye actively uses his eyes to freeze DBs, has an understanding of how to open the field at his will, and has the rocket arm to take advantage. And he can also multitask and manage space in the pocket while processing the field.

Maye bears some similarity to former Oregon Ducks and current Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert. He’s a QB who doesn’t always rely on his athleticism stylistically, but has the high-end overarching tools to be a passer who elevates his squad and creates off-script, while also operating at a high level within the offensive structure.

Maye has all of the qualities of a franchise QB. But not only that, he’s one of the best QB prospects to come out over the past few cycles, rivaling names like Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and C.J. Stroud. He should be in the mix for No. 1 overall — and he’d be my pick.

 

 

 

Mike Renner from PFF below, also has Maye #1 and talking up how if you have the #1 or #2 picks in this draft its a lottery ticket.  He feels like Caleb and Drake are elite prospects,

 

 

 

Edited January 4 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

Also if you want to grade prospects on the quality of the defenses they faced, the only two decent defenses Penix played against were Utah and the Oregon schools and he didn't look good against them.  Cal, Stanford, USC, Michigan State, Arizona St, Boise, Tulsa were all among the worst defenses in CFB this year.