2023 NFL Draft Watch and Post Thread - The Hangover Special

[KDawg]

Yup. I left Herbig off my post above initially because I forgot he wasn't drafted. Says something for what you think of a player when you think a guy got picked. He's on my list of guys left I'd like. 

[CjSuAvE22]

Rounds 4-7 are the championship rounds this is where perennially good teams are built let’s get some ballers today ! Plzzzzzz

[DWinzit]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

My List of Guys Available still... But I'm not double checking and the draft coverage got dry at times last night so there's a chance I missed some of them...

 

QB:

Jake Haener

Tyson Bagent

Clayton Tune

 

RB:

DeWayne McBride

Rocshon Johnson

Israel Abankanda

 

WR: 

Charlie Jones

Kayshon Boutte

AT Perry

 

TE: 

Zach Kuntz

Will Mallory

 

Don't like much beyond these two

 

OT: 

Dawand Jones (but it's clear the character and weight issues have him as persona non grata so far)

Jaelyn Duncan

Zion Nelson

Blake Freeland

 

IOL: 

Jarrett Patterson

Emil Ekiyor

Braeden Daniels

Anthony Bradford

Andrew Vorhees (injured)

 

EDGE:

Robert Beal Jr

Nick Herbig (more of a LB. He slots in weird)

Laiatu Latu

Derek Parish

 

DT:

Byron Young (Bama)

Kobie Turner

Jaquelin Roy

 

LB:

Ivan Pace

Owen Pappoe

Dee Winters

Noah Sewell

Drake Thomas

 

S: 

Jason Taylor II

Jammie Robinson

Clark Philips III

 

CB:

Kelee Ringo

Eli Ricks

Darius Rush

Tre'Vius Hodges Tomlinson

 

Return Man:

Derius Davis

 

Fullback/H hybrid:

Brayden Willis

 

My top 10 Available:

 

1. Dawand Jones (but again, character concerns mean he is off a lot of teams boards, I don't expect us to take him)

 

2. DeWayne McBride (my RB3, but I don't see him being the guy this regime targets at RB)

 

3. Charlie Jones (excellent slot receiver who has done nothing but be fast and produce. I think he could be a guy this regime sees a lot of value in, but with their needs based drafting they'd have to have him really high on their board to take him in the next few rounds)

 

4. Ivan Pace (excellent pass rusher. A touch undersized but not really. Is all over the field and can also play inside backer quite well with his instincts. 4th best available player but perhaps my top want right now)

 

5. Rocshon Johnson (He is more of a back in the mold I can see this regime targeting. Can do a bit of everything and he runs like a man with his hair on fire and you're in the way of the pond. Choo choo.)

 

6. Zach Kuntz (Tight end depth is now beginning to fall off. Kuntz is just about the last guy that I think is a viable target [though I do believe Mallory is a good late round get for us, but after Mallory we're down to scraps]. Big bodied work horse that probably should have already been drafted. Along with Pace and Johnson I think he is a realistic chance for us to draft)

 

7. Byron Young (not much to say. Just a good player)

 

8. Jarrett Patterson (C/G. Good player. Not in a position that I see us doubling up on)

 

9. Emil Ekiyor (Stout, powerful guard. The unheralded Steve Avila but a better player)

 

10. Kayshon Boutte (Guessing there are character concerns?)

 

NOTE: I forgot Ringo was still there.  He'd be atop my list here, but we shouldn't consider it.

 

My Top 5 (6) for the Commanders:

 

1. Ivan Pace

2. Rocshon Johnson

3. Zach Kuntz

4. Emil Ekiyor

5. Jaelyn Duncan/Zion Nelson

6. Nick Herbig

 

Guys I want the Commanders to target later, so you can safely project them on our radar a round before they should be drafted:

1. Brayden Willis

2. Derius Davis

3. Dee Winters

4. Robert Beal, Jr.

5. Tyson Bagent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I forgot about WIllis...he would be great!

 

At LB after Pace I wouldn't be shocked if they liked Sewell

 

Darius Davis really fits a need and EB

[Koolblue13]

I'm really bummed about Overshown. He went around where I thought. Thought Herbig would be gone too though. I think Overshown was very high on our list, although he's a lot like Hudson.

Hunter Luepke is my day 3 crush (kind of Willis too) because I want an offense with a FB so much.

[Darrell Green Fan]

When I saw a safety was picked I thought this was not a real need position so maybe that's a good pick. If the 1st 3 picks were OT, TE and CB then I'd be concerned they passed on better players to fill needs.  It's too early to tell but when every player is taken sooner than the consensus opinion of their value that has to be a concern.  

[Riggo#44]

8 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Thor is the worst because he’s extra arrogant and more often wrong and doesn’t admit it.

To be fair, he got that from Mel too 🤣

[Est.1974]

Zack Evans is a RB we seem to have taken a strong interest in. 

[KDawg]

Just now, Darrell Green Fan said:

When I saw a safety was picked I thought this was not a real need position so maybe that's a good pick. If the 1st 3 picks were OT, TE and CB then I'd be concerned they passed on better players to fill needs.  It's too early to tell but when every player is taken sooner than the consensus opinion of their value that has to be a concern.  

Oh, it was an absolute need pick. He's not really a safety. He is... but he will be our nickel corner. He is a McCain replacement.

 

Doesn't mean the player isn't good, though. He is a ballhawking, aggressive player who is an immediate upgrade to what we had there previously. In fact, he's better than Landon Collins at that role, too. 

 

But make no mistake about it, he was a need pick. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@KDawg great list but I think DT Young from Bama went 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

I think we’ve got 3 excellent players who likely start week 1.

 

But I do agree, by not trading and picking at 16,47,97 we’ve taken them earlier that I’d like too. 

Eh, there’s no way to really know what the boards of the other teams look like and what we’ve learned over the years is the team’s boards both vary wildly from each other and also vary significantly from the draftnik boards.  
 

In the end it’s about getting good players.  I don’t believe there is such a thing as a “reach.”  Because there is no way to know if the player would get selected by any other team at any other pick.  
 

I do believe in positional value, but to a much, much, much lesser extent than others.  For example, if you have a guard who can be a day day 1 starter and projects to be a top-end player, pro-bowl type, I see no reason not to take them with a miid first round first pick over the 4th best DB or DE. 
 

I think SF was nuts for drafting a kicker in the 3rd.

 

And while I really don’t like picking 2 DBs in the first two rounds, that’s more because of a year over year over-allocation of resources to the less important side of the ball.  
 

I also get BPA but if you have a year over year trend to go defense high in the draft, by definition you are getting less talented and higher risk prospects on offense, and eventually that catches up to you.

 

Unless you hit gold like what they did with Terry.  
 

I might be missing somebody, but since they drafted Scherff, the only OL I can’t think of them drafting in the top 3 rounds are Charles, Geron Christian, and Cosmi. And they were all 3rd round picks.  

 

Rouiller was a 6th round pick in 2017. 
 

That’s since 2015.

 

Balance that against 5 DL players picked in the first 2 rounds over the same time (Allen, Payne, Sweat, Young and P. Mathis) with 4 of those being first round picks.  Throw in first rounders for Davis and now Forbes, it’s just a very high concentration of assets on Defense.

 

In a vacuum, I have absolutely no problem with any player they picked.  
 

My irritation is they’re focusing on the wrong things.  they didn’t need to get better/younger on defense, and they did on offense.  
 

I would have been happy if they could have packaged picks and moved up to 10 or 11 to grab one of the top 4 tackles.  
 

But, eh, we’ll see.  

[Chris 44]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Oh, it was an absolute need pick. He's not really a safety. He is... but he will be our nickel corner. He is a McCain replacement.

 

Doesn't mean the player isn't good, though. He is a ballhawking, aggressive player who is an immediate upgrade to what we had there previously. In fact, he's better than Landon Collins at that role, too. 

 

But make no mistake about it, he was a need pick. 

More I think about this pick the better I am with it. This DB group is going to really compliment the DL 

[justice98]

1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

I kinda see Fuller and Chase Roullier getting cut - not many others fly off the cap hit page as likely candidates like they do. We can't pay our rookies so someones gone. Shades of having to take Mathis last year from mismanaging our DL. Drafting to fill holes from letting decent players walk.

 

I still think we were well served to target offense early and DBs later to support our shaky QB room. Strength of this staff is developing DBs. Anyone sold on Howell has their fingers crossed but all know he'll need help especially vs our divisions F7. Cutting Chase (at full health our best OL before injury) and replacing with Stromberg I see as a downgrade short term. I am not sold on our OL QBs TEs & heck not even our RBs. I doubt we go QB today but am fine to give Howell competition. I would like to see us trade up one of these years and stop watering down talent and missing on position runs.

 

How'd we end up in cap hell anyways. Can't we convert salary to signing bonuses slip Mara a check and keep everyone like back in the day.

 

I see no reason to continue with the Chase Roullier experience, other than the dead cap of $8m isn't nothing.  I think Gates/Stromberg/Larsen should be your center mix.  I guess Gates has position flex at guard, but I don't see 4 centers on this team.  That's what makes me think Roullier has to go. 

 

The next best cut candidates are Fuller, as you say, but then Leno and Logan Thomas.  They didn't draft a Leno replacement, so he's probably good.  I still think Thomas is on the table.  As far as Fuller, I hope they don't.  But his low dead cap makes it plausible.  I just don't wanna see a whole lot of Dantzler and Holmes.  St. Juste, Fuller, Forbes, roll them out there at corner and let's make it tough on these WRs.  And then Fuller can walk after the season as an UFA.

[Chris 44]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Eh, there’s no way to really know what the boards of the other teams look like and what we’ve learned over the years is the team’s boards both vary wildly from each other and also vary significantly from the draftnik boards.  
 

In the end it’s about getting good players.  I don’t believe there is such a thing as a “reach.”  Because there is no way to know if the player would get selected by any other team at any other pick.  
 

I do believe in positional value, but to a much, much, much lesser extent than others.  For example, if you have a guard who can be a day day 1 starter and projects to be a top-end player, pro-bowl type, I see no reason not to take them with a miid first round first pick over the 4th best DB or DE. 
 

I think SF was nuts for drafting a kicker in the 3rd.

 

And while I really don’t like picking 2 DBs in the first two rounds, that’s more because of a year over year over-allocation of resources to the less important side of the ball.  
 

I also get BPA but if you have a year over year trend to go defense high in the draft, by definition you are getting less talented and higher risk prospects on offense, and eventually that catches up to you.

 

Unless you hit gold like what they did with Terry.  
 

I might be missing somebody, but since they drafted Scherff, the only OL I can’t think of them drafting in the top 3 rounds are Charles, Geron Christian, and Cosmi. And they were all 3rd round picks.  

 

Rouiller was a 6th round pick in 2017. 
 

That’s since 2015.

 

Balance that against 5 DL players picked in the first 2 rounds over the same time (Allen, Payne, Sweat, Young and P. Mathis) with 4 of those being first round picks.  Throw in first rounders for Davis and now Forbes, it’s just a very high concentration of assets on Defense.

 

In a vacuum, I have absolutely no problem with any player they picked.  
 

My irritation is they’re focusing on the wrong things.  they didn’t need to get better/younger on defense, and they did on offense.  
 

I would have been happy if they could have packaged picks and moved up to 10 or 11 to grab one of the top 4 tackles.  
 

But, eh, we’ll see.  

I take a different view on kickers. If you can get a reliable guy in the 3rd for the next 8 to 10 years at the position that many times is the one that will decide so many games, I'm thinking great pick.

[skinsfan66]

57 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I get being underwhelmed. 
 

But…

 

All three players we’ve taken are good football players. That does mean something. We are adding talented players who are typically high character people who have a little of that dog in them.

 

There are concerns for sure with the strategic part of the draft. Absolutely. It’s been an issue the entire time this regime has been in power. We just don’t maximize the draft. 
 

But it’s kind of what they do. They keep it medium. Not talent wise, necessarily. But they don’t take a lot of risks. It’s a very steady approach based on drafting for need.

 

I’m not a huge fan of need drafting. It makes you take guys valued lower than where you’re drafting usually. Which doesn’t typically let you add a lot of high end talent because you’re fishing for filling holes. They are also doing it in what seems to be a predetermined way. 
 

But, we are filling holes. And we are doing it with talent.

 

The major positive is this FO has shown they find talented players in the draft. That has been an absolute constant. They don’t draft bums and uncover talent throughout the entirety of the draft.

 

We also show, strategically, we are afraid of risk and maximizing value. 
 

But all three players we’ve drafted are good players. So… at least there’s that.

 

They better be good players at where they were taken.  Did they make us a better team? Big risk at 16 with the size thing. Can he return punts because he looks like a perfect fit to me? Hands, speed, quickness or would they be afraid of getting him hurt?  If he is another Reggie Williams Georgetown basketball back in days type, with the skinny, small bone but mean and tuff as nails player he will be all right. I guess we will see what the 16th pick has? 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Cutting Roullier gives us $6.7m in cap space. Takes our cap space in 2024 to $103m

 

More likely, a post June 1 designation would get us to $10.8 this year and $99 next year. Assume that’s the likely route so we can add post draft talent and have $$ for picks and in season flexibility. 

 

[Koolblue13]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Cutting Roullier gives us $6.7m in cap space. Takes our cap space in 2024 to $103m

 

More likely, a post June 1 designation would get us to $10.8 this year and $99 next year. Assume that’s the likely route so we can add post draft talent and have $$ for picks and in season flexibility. 

 

Also makes a strength a weakness. Roullier is heads and shoulders better than any other Center that we have and it's not close.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

Also makes a strength a weakness. Roullier is heads and shoulders better than any other Center that we have and it's not close.

If he’s healthy. Sounds like Stromberg and Gates could compete for the spot from Day 1. Keim and others say that spells the end for Roullier. So that’s likely our cap outlook

[KDawg]

Just now, Chris 44 said:

More I think about this pick the better I am with it. This DB group is going to really compliment the DL 

 

It's really important to separate the player and the strategy for a lot of reasons:

 

1. These are young men. Yes, football is a tough game. But to think they are invincible and not prone to emotions and feelings affecting their mental state is a blunder. When people get down on a young man because they didn't like the team's strategy it will ABSOLUTELY have an effect on the player. It just does. But that also works both ways. A player who gets a ton of buy in from the team and the fanbase and feels good will have a better chance at developing. A player who is frowned upon and not liked and it's loud and clear will go the other way.

 

2. It's tough to look at any of the three players we have drafted and say, "god, we didn't get a single player". We actually got three EXCELLENT players. Really, really good players that make this team better and fill needs. It's important that we as a fanbase understand that to be educated in our conversations and not spread "creative bull****" because we don't know any better.

 

3. The team's decisions are not the player's fault. Think Jamin Davis. He was getting crushed here because the fanbase thought he was a ****ty player. But really what was happening with Davis, and many are too ignorant to know it (ignorant in the sense they don't know better, not that they are purposely dense) is that they didn't like the team's strategy so they took it out on the young man. 

 

Our DB group is MUCH improved. Our strategy? I don't like it. Haven't the last three years. But we always wind up with good players who make us better, so that IS a positive. It could be a lot worse, we could be bad evaluators and bad strategists (like we were in the past). At least RIvera et al are good scouts. 

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

More I think about this pick the better I am with it. This DB group is going to really compliment the DL 

Branch went 2 picks ahead of us. Wonder if that was a target and when he got picked, we shifted to Quan.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

Branch went 2 picks ahead of us. Wonder if that was a target and when he got picked, we shifted to Quan.

Keim said they wanted to trade up for Quan so assume he was their guy over Branch

[skinsfan66]

21 minutes ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

Rounds 4-7 are the championship rounds this is where perennially good teams are built let’s get some ballers today ! Plzzzzzz

This seems to be the spots were the team saves their draft with the earlier picks always in question adding the 3rd rd. 

[Koolblue13]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If he’s healthy. Sounds like Stromberg and Gates could compete for the spot from Day 1. Keim and others say that spells the end for Roullier. So that’s likely our cap outlook

Strom is not ready to start and Gates isn't really better than Larson.

 

I'm not saying that they don't cut Chase. Just that he's the best of the bunch.

[justice98]

8 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

We know 23 is likely a lost year but if the worst happens, the new guys will have a high pick to get that QB.

 

It still won't be high enough. I'd be very surprised if, even in the worst case scenario, they're not still in this 14-18 area of the draft again next year.  They won't bottom out to wind up in the top 5 or anything crazy like that.  Ron's MO is keep the floor at middling (problem is the ceiling is middling too). 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Keim said they wanted to trade up for Quan so assume he was their guy over Branch

Curious how much Curl is looking to make next year now.

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

To be fair, he got that from Mel too 🤣

Oh sure.  Though Mel was a revolutionary who created an industry.  
 

And in hindsight, Mel will come out and say things like “that didn’t work out the way I expected.”

 

But Mel also knew it made for good TV.  And if you hear him on the radio and in interviews, you can tell he was also playing a pit of a character for the early drafts because he WAS the draft. 
 

The NFL should deposit 20% of draft revenue into Mel’s bank account every year. I don’t think there is a better example of one media guy being able to create an entire industry over 10-15 years almost by himself.  
 

He and Chris Berman made the draft interesting when nobody thought it was in the 90’s.  
 

I will go to war for Mel. Of the early ESPN personalities, Mel might be #2 behind Berman in how important and ultimately revolutionary they were.  Dan Patrick and a few others might have something to say about that, but Mel made the draft a show.  And then the NFL realized they could make it an event.