China Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Challenger Mucarsel-Powell surges in US Senate poll, closing in on Rick Scott U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., is in a tighter-than-expected contest with his leading Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. A Florida Atlantic University Poll released Wednesday shows Scott with support from 45% of likely voters. Mucarsel-Powell has 43%. Effectively that’s a tie, within the survey’s margin of error. The contest between Scott and Mucarsel-Powell is much tighter — a difference of just 2 percentage points among likely voters — than it was in FAU’s last statewide poll in April. Scott had support of 53% of likely voters in the previous poll, 17 points ahead of Mucarsel-Powell’s 36%. “In April, a lot of people didn’t know who Mucarsel-Powell was. Her name recognition has improved considerably. With that, the support for her has improved,” said Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist. “If that trend line holds it suggests that it could be a competitive race,” he said, adding that it is still early to make that assessment. “It’s still June, so we’ll see how that turns out.” Click on the link for the full article 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Who are the largest Trump donors? Plus a look at the money behind Biden and RFK Jr. Banking heir Timothy Mellon continues to be the biggest single donor in the 2024 presidential race. Mellon donated another $15 million to super PACs backing Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in April, bringing his total contributions this election cycle to over $50 million. He is supporting both Trump and Kennedy, donating $25 million each to Make America Great Again, a pro-Trump super PAC, and American Values 2024, a pro-Kennedy super PAC. Trump’s campaign announced it brought in $76 million in April, outraising President Joe Biden’s $51 million, though Biden still holds a substantial cash advantage. The figures will be confirmed when the joint fundraising committees submit their quarterly filings in mid-July. After a New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to payments to Stormy Daniels, his campaign said it raised a record $34.8 million in small-dollar donations. This, too, will be confirmed in the mid-July filings. Contributor Contributions Description Timothy Mellon $25,000,000 The heir to the Mellon Bank fortune was also Trump's top donor in 2020. In the 2024 election cycle, he has also been a top contributor to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s super PAC, American Values 2024. McMahon Ventures $11,079,600 Linda McMahon is the co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) alongside her husband Vince. They donated millions of dollars to Trump-supporting super PACs in 2016 and 2020. McMahon served as the administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration in Donald Trump's cabinet. She is currently the chair of the America First Policy Institute, promoting Trump’s “America First” agenda. Laura & Isaac Perlmutter Foundation $10,100,000 Billionaires Laura and Ike Perlmutter are top donors to Right for America, a new pro-Trump super PAC that has raised $13.5 million since January. Ike Perlmutter, a former Marvel executive and member of Mar-a-Lago, is joined by Trump allies Anthony Lomangino and Leandro Rizzuto Jr. Trump’s nomination of Rizzuto as the U.S. envoy to the Caribbean sank after his social media posts promoting conspiracy theories emerged. Trump later appointed him to lead the U.S. consulate in Bermuda. Bigelow Aerospace $10,011,600 The real estate investor, who was the top contributor to Ron DeSantis’s now-defunct presidential campaign, has switched his support to Trump Patricia Duggan $6,086,600 A wealthy Scientologist from Clearwater, Florida, Duggan also donated $3,800 to the American Exceptionalism PAC, a super PAC backing Vivek Ramaswamy. Duggan was a top donor to Trump's re-election campaign in 2020, donating at least $5 million to the pro-Trump super PAC, America First Action Inc. MORE Click on the link for the full article 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 8 hours ago, tshile said: He can do both by sticking to the states’ right to decide option its not supporting abortion but it’s not advocating for bans and punting on the issue entirely Nope. Problem is they believe the fetus is a human life. So saying that a state can decide if killing a "baby" is okay goes against what they believe. They NEED the national ban to protect "lives" everywhere. Leaving it to the states doesn't appease them, which Trump is already starting to see. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 3 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: Nope. Problem is they believe the fetus is a human life. So saying that a state can decide if killing a "baby" is okay goes against what they believe. They NEED the national ban to protect "lives" everywhere. Leaving it to the states doesn't appease them, which Trump is already starting to see. So they won’t vote for him? not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 18 minutes ago, tshile said: So they won’t vote for him? not buying it. Personally I thought that once Roe v. Wade was decided, the anti-abortion wing could say "mission accomplished" wrt their support of Trump ie. "the deal with the devil" . But they seem to have demonstrated with support of him in 2020, their behavior is more as you indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 8 hours ago, tshile said: He can do both by sticking to the states’ right to decide option its not supporting abortion but it’s not advocating for bans and punting on the issue entirely That has not been working out for him at all so far. Eventually, he'll have to pick a side or the voters will pick one for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 26 minutes ago, tshile said: So they won’t vote for him? not buying it. Dunno. But I've been paying attention to their responses when he has brought it up before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ixcuincle Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-trial-live-closing-arguments-082011973.html?_fsig=sW4N4fsdl6DkMciFQBQBBA--~A Donald Trump is preparing for his first return to the US Capitol since his supporters laid siege to it on January 6 2021 in protest at his defeat by Joe Biden in the previous November’s election. The Republican presidential candidate and convicted felon will meet with House and Senate GOP lawmakers in Washington DC behind closed doors on Thursday. He has also recorded an appearance on social media star Logan Paul’s podcast that will drop later today and will address a gathering of CEOs in DC this evening. Trailing his interview with Paul, Trump was seen in an X video presenting the host with a pair of MAGA caps and a T-shirt bearing his mugshot taken last summer in Fulton County, Georgia, declaring the image was so famous it had enabled him to “eclipse” Elvis Presley and Frank Sinatra. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 hour ago, Simmsy said: That has not been working out for him at all so far. Eventually, he'll have to pick a side or the voters will pick one for him. He won the primary in essentially an uncontested way. No one was close. You’re looking at groups trying to influence the platform - that’s what the lead up to the convention is. I’m saying it doesn’t matter, if he handles it that way they will vote for him in November. they’re surely not going to vote for dems or sit out an election where codifying abortion rights into the constitution at the state or federal level is what the other party wants. Give me a break - he’s not going to lose their support because he doesn’t make banning abortion a part of the platform other republicans have already openly said they can’t run on what they want to do or they won’t win. This isn’t exactly rocket science. if he loses it’s not going to be because he didn’t take a hard stance against abortion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 21 minutes ago, tshile said: He won the primary in essentially an uncontested way. No one was close. You’re looking at groups trying to influence the platform - that’s what the lead up to the convention is. I’m saying it doesn’t matter, if he handles it that way they will vote for him in November. they’re surely not going to vote for dems or sit out an election where codifying abortion rights into the constitution at the state or federal level is what the other party wants. Give me a break - he’s not going to lose their support because he doesn’t make banning abortion a part of the platform other republicans have already openly said they can’t run on what they want to do or they won’t win. This isn’t exactly rocket science. if he loses it’s not going to be because he didn’t take a hard stance against abortion. No one was close, but Trump lost huge chunks of the primary vote to other candidates. It wasn't close, but it definitely wasn't uncontested. He consistently lost a bigger percentage in more state than Biden. As of late May, Haley was still getting 20% of the total republican primary vote. As for Biden, the highest opponent he had in the primaries was the uncommitted vote that only totaled out to about 4%. A lot of people seem to forget (not you), that not only did Trump lose last go around, but he lost to the same guy he's going up against now. After fours years, Trump is not in a good spot mentally, financially or legally and all of it costs him. He cannot afford to lose ANYONE, not a single vote. Flipping on abortion might not tank him with the zealots, but he will lose SOME and them some is all the Dems need. Trump isn't picking up any new voters, so he at least has to keep the ones he's got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 hour ago, tshile said: Other republicans have already openly said they can’t run on what they want to do or they won’t win. Which ought to just flat out terrify any voters. "I can't tell you what I actually intend to do, because I know that the voters don't want it, but I intent to gain power by concealing my plan, and then carry it out once I gain power." But, unfortunately, it won't. At least, not enough. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 9 hours ago, Fergasun said: It seems a bit newsworthy that the last two VP candidates for the GOP are not planning on voting for Trump. https://www.salon.com/2024/06/12/paul-ryan-says-puts-himself-above-the-constitution-calls-him-unfit-for-office/ Good on this guy for speaking out. Same with Pence. I would hope if the other major political party got taken over by an anti-Constitutional, criminal, a large number (or some number) would speak out about it. I am curious what he is seeing that makes him confident to repudiate Trump so early in the election cycle. Maybe he knows, even if Trump wins he's gonna have a horrible 2 years and then a lame, lame duck period... so time to already look beyond Trump. Ryan hasn't had a political career since 2020 and is likely not seeking anything. It's sad that the only GOPers with the guts to confront Trump (like Romney and Cheney) are ones who aren't trying to continue their political careers. Problem is the main GOP voters have become frothing-at-the-mouth religious fanatics whose anger is constantly triggered by Trump. “Pro-family” rhetoric and its fascist resonances Traditional gender roles have propped up authoritarian regimes of the past. In Republicans’ views on women, the echoes are clear. https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/06/pro-family-rhetoric-fascist-resonances-republican-party-trump The aim is clear: force women to have babies, whether they want to or not. It is a modern version of what was made appallingly explicit in the Nazi era: an ideology that wants more reproduction from certain kinds of people, and leaders who understand that women must be subjugated in order to carry out that vision. In Hitler’s Germany, mothers were discouraged from entering the workforce, and were even paid to stay at home with their children. This was, of course, spun as pro-family. But in reality, it was about incentivising white, ethnically German women to reproduce, and keeping them from gaining too much independence. The Nazi party, as a general rule, did not put women in office or in positions of responsibility. Women were formally barred from many professions. Feminism and the concept of the liberated woman were stigmatised. Abortion, and even information about abortion, was banned. Men had clear roles and obligations, too: they were to be restored to their vaunted place as family leaders. They earned the bread and offered protection. Nazism tied itself tightly to traditional masculinity, putting power nearly exclusively in male hands, and elevating a leader who sought to broadcast not just strength but total dominance, often through sadistic cruelty. Perhaps this sounds familiar to followers of American politics. In the US, gender equality is a partisan issue. Women are under-represented in the halls of power, but the gender balance is especially skewed in the GOP. The Republican Party’s leader and its candidate for president is a man who relies on the language of fascism and authoritarianism, who boasts about his masculine virility and who plans to round up millions of undocumented immigrants and put them in camps before deporting them. Britt’s vision of a traditional family in a conservative culture dovetails with Republican Party efforts to strip away women’s reproductive rights, including the rights to prevent and end pregnancies, but also the ability to use modern technology to create new ones. Today’s Republican Party is stocked with and supported by people who wring their hands about the declining white birth rate; who suggest that it was a bad idea to give women the right to vote and that no-fault divorces should end. Who argue that mothers should be in the home, not in the paid workforce; that birthright citizenship should be ended so American-ness can be reserved for a select few. GOP politicians have tried to ban speech and sharing information about abortion. Authoritarian ideologies are not exclusively right-wing. But right-wing authoritarianism has rarely existed without conservative gender roles to bolster, enable and perpetuate it. The ideal woman as submissive homemaker and obedient child-bearer, and the ideal man as dominant patriarch, is a model that authoritarian regimes emulate in law and governance. It is a very old model. And it is one that is seemingly endlessly resurrected by men in search of total power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 (edited) 4 hours ago, tshile said: So they won’t vote for him? not buying it. I dunno either...but this just came out on the WP: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/13/trump-christian-right-abortion-prayer/ Here’s what the Christian right wants from a second Trump term Religious conservatives see opportunities for fresh gains after a series of victories during Trump’s first term. Rights advocates see a dangerous blurring of church and state. But far from declaring victory, those who advocate for a more pronounced role for hard-line conservative Christian doctrine in American public life are actively planning to enact a fresh wave of changes in a second Trump term. Should Trump reclaim the presidency in November, they say, it would represent a historic opportunity to put their interpretation of Christianity at the center of government policy. To advocates for civil, women’s and gay rights, the proposals represent something else: a threat to basic freedoms and a dangerous blurring of boundaries between church and state. In 2016, Trump had to overcome the suspicion of conservative Christian leaders that came with being a twice-divorced celebrity who had publicly backed abortion rights and had never exhibited any particular religiosity. He picked Mike Pence, the evangelical Indiana governor, as his running mate in part to assuage worries he wasn’t sufficiently committed to their cause. In 2024, Trump — who was convicted last month of falsifying business records to conceal a hush money payment to a porn actress and director — is considered a proven protector and champion of conservative Christians. He has been afforded wide latitude even when he breaks with their cause, as he did this spring when he declined to endorse a national abortion ban. “This is not a naive trust — it’s a trust based on a track record,” said Texas megachurch pastor Robert Jeffress, an enthusiastic Trump supporter. “I think what evangelicals agree with is his general narrative that America would be better off if we return to our Judeo-Christian roots. What that looks like — people are willing to give him great leeway on how it would be implemented.” Analysts say the political advances of the Christian right in recent years mask broader declines for the movement. Stephen Prothero, a scholar of religion’s role in American politics and society, said Christian conservatism has become in many ways indistinguishable from the secular MAGA political movement, leaving few clear leaders and many divergent goals. If Trump wins and the policies conservative Christians seek are enacted, Prothero predicted a decline in Christianity in the United States at a time when the nation has been rapidly secularizing. Partisan politicization of religion is driving Americans away from it, he said, and that will continue. “The religious right is the pawn, and MAGA is the king,” he said. Speaking at a Washington Post Live event last week, longtime conservative Christian lobbyist Ralph Reed warned the GOP and Trump not to weaken their antiabortion efforts. “Look, President Trump is my friend and I’ve strongly supported him,” said Reed, who leads the Faith and Freedom Coalition. “But I would encourage the Trump campaign to proceed with great caution in sending a message of retreat when it comes to treatment of the unborn.” Edited June 13 by BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 hour ago, Simmsy said: Flipping on abortion might not tank him with the zealots, but he will lose SOME and them some is all the Dems need. Trump isn't picking up any new voters, so he at least has to keep the ones he's got. Well hold on if Trump flips on abortion, then what I said goes out the window. I have no idea how those people would react and it probably depends on what “flipping” on the topic actually looks like. Trump has, from day 1, simply taken credit for building SCOTUS to kick it back to the states. Best I’ve seen he’s stuck to that - that it’s a state issue not a federal issue - although he contradicts himself all the time so I’m sure you can find random quips from him where he says something different. Overall - he’s been mostly consistent about kicking it back to the states. if he continues that he’s not flipping on anything. He’s staying the course, not putting a policy out there, sticking to his accomplishment, and generally punting on the issue. I, personally, don’t see that driving those people away from him at all. Especially given what’s on the ballot right now (states codifying abortion access rights) if he starts advocating for specific policies then yeah, I could see it being a problem (though I’m willing to bet it will be really overstated and overblown by everyone compared to what it actually means on Election Day) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 (edited) The Protestants just endorsed banning IVF, which is in opposition to Trump's position. I also don't think these zealots are going to be satisfied with Trump just allowing states to decide on abortion...they smell blood in the cultural water and want abortion BANNED throughout the US so it can become the White Christian Paradise/Hellhole they've always wanted. Remember, it's the fear of MAGA that is driving Trump and his sycophants, although I doubt they're aware of it. Nothing else explains the complete refusal to acknowledge reality and facts by these people in Congress! Edited June 13 by BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 14 minutes ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said: 4 hours ago, tshile said: I dunno either...but this just came out on the WP: Again - right now is when all the advocacy groups throw everything at shaping the party platform. The convention is around the corner and they have a presumptive nominee. This is when everything throws everything they got to try to get their way. The convention will largely revolve around the platform for the campaign. I brought this up way back when Haley was still a candidate but it was really important she win 1 state - because if you win one state you are guaranteed 10 minutes of speaking time at the convention. This gives you leverage over the platform - no one wants you to go up there and trash the presumptive nominee, and she could have spent 10 minutes JUST trashing Trump and not have to repeat herself once during the 10 minutes. They know that. In order to get her to play along, they would have to make some concessions on the party platform. lobbyists, donors, PACs, all are going through the same thing. After the convention it’s shut up and get in line time, so they can concentrate on beating Biden. but right now is their best chance to throw their money or weight (political capital) around to try to officially get what they want in the party platform. you’re gonna see a bunch of groups come out with strong opinions and strong poll results between now and then. and regardless what happens 99% of them are gonna show up and vote for him in November. 3 minutes ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said: The Protestants just endorsed banning IVF, which is in opposition to Trump's position. Ok yes, I am aware of that. I was thinking more about abortion. but again - I stand by what I said earlier about what we’re seeing right now and at the end of the day literally no one else outside their little group is even for considering banning IVF so they don’t have any ****ing options. They know that. They’ll go with the guy that’s close enough to them over the guy that’s the polar opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Milwaukee is like 35% black, so that’s just more racist trombone red meat for MagaKlan to chew on. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Good thing Wisconsin isn't a battleground state. 🤔 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 24 minutes ago, tshile said: Well hold on if Trump flips on abortion, then what I said goes out the window. I have no idea how those people would react and it probably depends on what “flipping” on the topic actually looks like. Trump has, from day 1, simply taken credit for building SCOTUS to kick it back to the states. Best I’ve seen he’s stuck to that - that it’s a state issue not a federal issue - although he contradicts himself all the time so I’m sure you can find random quips from him where he says something different. Overall - he’s been mostly consistent about kicking it back to the states. if he continues that he’s not flipping on anything. He’s staying the course, not putting a policy out there, sticking to his accomplishment, and generally punting on the issue. I, personally, don’t see that driving those people away from him at all. Especially given what’s on the ballot right now (states codifying abortion access rights) if he starts advocating for specific policies then yeah, I could see it being a problem (though I’m willing to bet it will be really overstated and overblown by everyone compared to what it actually means on Election Day) Honestly, he's taken just about every stance on it at some point like you said, so I guess its also how the individual wants to interpret his meaning. Overall, I think most people blame or accredit him for the current state of women's rights and it trickles down to the rest of the republican party. Trickle down is finally paying off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 @tshile Trump is the platform and the platform is Trump. Why are you acting like anyone cares about the GOP platform? I don't think they had one in 2020. Complete loyalty to emperor Donald is what they want. It's very scary what the GOP is now. At the same time, they have no idea how dumb, wasteful, and counterproductive electing him will be. We are gonna go 2 levels deeper into a worse Constitutional crises than when Nixon resigned. I don't think independent voters who will decide this are dumb enough to vote for a President with pending trials for alleged crimes he committed in the White House. I really hope not. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 47 minutes ago, Fergasun said: At the same time, they have no idea how dumb, wasteful, and counterproductive electing him will be. We are gonna go 2 levels deeper into a worse Constitutional crises than when Nixon resigned. I don't think independent voters who will decide this are dumb enough to vote for a President with pending trials for alleged crimes he committed in the White House. I really hope not. At this point the garden variety GOP voters and a bunch of independent voters don't care about the constitution or whether we have a dictator. What's going to hurt the GOP heir apparent in 2028 (assuming Trump wins) is people will again get tired of the drama after another four year firehose of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcsluggo Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 i don't know if this has already been shown here (and i know it is behind a pay-wall, sorry)..... but the Economist predictive model yesterday gave Trump a two-thirds chance of winning the election: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president (behind a paywall, i believe) Quote Donald Trump’s lead over Joe Biden is small, but real Last updated on June 12th 2024 National forecast How this works Key states Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania Nevada Arizona Georgia All races Choose a stateAlaskaAlabamaArkansasArizonaCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutWashington, DCDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIowaIdahoIllinoisIndianaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMassachusettsMarylandMaineMaine 1stMaine 2ndMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMississippiMontanaNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaNebraskaNebraska 1stNebraska 2ndNebraska 3rdNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNevadaNew YorkOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVirginiaVermontWashingtonWisconsinWest VirginiaWyoming Chance of winning the electoral college Donald Trump has about a 2 in 3 chance Joe Biden has about a 1 in 3 chance Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the probable electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election. The chance of a tie in the electoral college is less than 1 in 100. <more at link, if you can get in....> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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