hail2skins Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 4 minutes ago, PeterMP said: Most people didn't know Dukakis at this point in time in 1988. And the vast majority of the country had 24 hour news tv. All we need is to convince Trump to get into a tank with a helmet too small for his head. And even then his poll numbers would rise because everyone would say how manly he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) It will be interesting to see convicted insurrectionists running for various offices the next two decades or so. Edited March 4 by The Evil Genius 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 8 hours ago, hail2skins said: Trolls with no conscience can't be hurt. These Truth Social tirades are seen by never Trump political junkies on Twitter, but do the national outlets even show them anymore? Doubtful. Heck, do those outlets even show excepts from his rallies, which have become boring and predictable? Even Trumps supporters who might not care for his rantings just shrug and say "he's not going to change." And given where his poll numbers are currently compared to Biden, he doesn't have a motivation to change. No, let me reiterate: I'm not saying these posts are hurting him, I'm saying he IS hurt, thats why he's posting. I've lost track of how many people think he has a thick skin, nothing bothers him, he didn't see it, etc. He ****ing sees it and he WILL let you know thru some manic, mouth diarrhea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 hours ago, tshile said: I’m reserving judgement until I see the campaign spend serious money and can see what the results are. it is very hard to trust polling though. They're pushing me to push everyone, but I don't. We needed the Senate on my last push, and we still do. OK, gently pushing...😬 BUT IT BEATS THE ALTERNATIVE. And that's all I got to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmirOfShmo Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 hours ago, hail2skins said: All we need is to convince Trump to get into a tank with a helmet too small for his head. Aren't all helmets too small for his head? Btw, did you know there are some cranial afflictions that can cause the continuously deteriorating brain to swell with such force that it stretches the skull significantly despite the density of bone and also leads to major challenges to even Hollywood level hair stylists? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 (edited) 4 hours ago, China said: Turns out, the NYT/Sienna poll oversampled rural voters by a whopping 84% in excess of their true proportion of the electorate. Let’s be clear about something: THAT’S INSANE. No wonder Joe Biden is getting clobbered in the polls; the people answering these polls are a bunch of Trump lovers in rural areas. And this would also account for Biden’s supposed “slippage” among black, latino and young voters; they’re over-polling minorities and young people who live in rural areas. This is probably why Donald Trump has under-performed his average-of-polls in all four early states; Nikki Haley does best among urban Republicans who are being drastically under-sampled. This guy is an idiot that doesn't understand anything about polling. He's so clueless that he doesn't know how clueless he is. They poll, then they weight the poll based on the expected electorate. They don't report that literally report the % of the people in the poll that answered they'd vote for Trump. If you read the poll (and have any clue what you are reading), there is a whole section on "Weighting — registered voters". https://nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/03/us/elections/times-siena-national-poll-toplines.html (Looking at the comments, he actually seems to understand that. But arguing their weightings are nonsense is different than acting like they've put out a poll without weighting. And if you think their weightings are garbage, great put together your own weightings and put out the results. As noted in the actual poll, NYTs poll have a historical margin of 5%. Maybe their weightings are garbage this time around, but there's no reason to think that's the case and no evidence. And the post given certainly doesn't give evidence of it. All he's done is w/o evidence suggest that the NYT and Sienna don't know the first thing about polling which is garbage. I suspect the issue is people are self-reporting their location. 35% of the people are reporting their rural, but I'm guessing that most people don't know the census definition of rural and their definition is off the census and so you get people over reporting they are rural compared to the census. The census also don't include suburban. You are either rural or urban. The NYT is essentially ignoring people's self-reported location vs. the census because they don't matchup/are garbage.) Why anybody would believe some random dude on the internet over the NYT, I don't know. Edited March 5 by PeterMP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 5 minutes ago, PeterMP said: Why anybody would believe some random dude on the internet over the NYT, I don't know. I believe you. When you agree with me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 The headline of that piece should be the NYT has put out a poll with weightings that I don't like and don't understand because the results are something I disagree. But I'm not going to bother to put together what I think are more reasonable weightings, show the result, and explain why the results are more reasonable. Instead I'm going to write something based on the idea the NYT doesn't know the first thing about polling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 12th Commandment Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 hours ago, Jumbo said: Aren't all helmets too small for his head? Btw, did you know there are some cranial afflictions that can cause the continuously deteriorating brain to swell with such force that it stretches the skull significantly despite the density of bone and also leads to major challenges to even Hollywood level hair stylists? Colloquially known as megamindlitis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 8 hours ago, EmirOfShmo said: I was watching, almost spit my coffee out. It's on. ✌👍 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 10 hours ago, PeterMP said: The headline of that piece should be the NYT has put out a poll with weightings that I don't like and don't understand because the results are something I disagree. But I'm not going to bother to put together what I think are more reasonable weightings, show the result, and explain why the results are more reasonable. Instead I'm going to write something based on the idea the NYT doesn't know the first thing about polling. I think this headline would break the page formatting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Performed my civic duty yesterday, early of course. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 She'll go be a lobbyist for whatever group advocates for the rights of people that wear loud clothing as a substitute for a personality. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 9 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: She'll go be a lobbyist for whatever group advocates for the rights of people that wear loud clothing as a substitute for a personality. If you could give two laughing emojis I’d have used it here. well done 😂 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 35 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: She'll go be a lobbyist for whatever group advocates for the rights of people that wear loud clothing as a substitute for a personality. I should post all of my tye-dyes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 What a RINO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Not sure of the rules. But is it possible that "Haley voters" = "Democrats"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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