2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

Buckle up. 

 

I know it's coming and I am almost completely resigned to our fate.  I just want to yell at some clouds.

 

The Hell of it is, I don't want Ron gone.  That's why I was pulling so hard for Wentz to work out.  Hell I'm hoping Sam Howell gets the start next week and looks awesome and gives us something heading into next season.  I just want Ron to clean house on the offensive side of the ball in bring in a good OC.  So the one little glimmer of light for me is for that to happen, and if it does, and if they draft some high upside project like Richardson or Stroud or Levis, I'll get on board.  I'll even get on board if they say Sam Howell is our guy and we're going to go through next season with him as the starter so long as they bring in a new offensive coaching staff.  I know it probably won't work out and we're still likely to be in a lame duck situation with new ownership on the way, but I could at least jump on for the ride and enjoy next season.

[Bifflog]

3 hours ago, Zim489 said:

Believe it was Galdi who did the research on this in the offseason before the Wentz trade went through. Essentially your QB draft pick plays before week 8-9 or its pretty much confirmed hes a bust.

 

https://towardsdatascience.com/4-reasons-why-correlation-does-not-imply-causation-f202f69fe979

[Going Commando]

On 12/28/2022 at 10:52 PM, illone said:

What would it take to draft this guy?

 

IMO, the #1 overall pick in 2023.  That kid is a bonafide phenom.  I am completely blown away by his poise and his playmaking ability/instincts.  He sees throws and opportunities that only a special few QBs do, and he makes running plays on the ground look easy.  Like 3rd and longs where he's weaving through the whole D and you think there is not a chance in Hell this will work and then he ends up gaining like 20 before slipping out of bounds.  Finds throwing lanes that I can barely even see after the fourth time watching in slow motion.  Left handed nonsense on the run where that was the only way to make a play and he pulls it off.  Stuff that is straight up Patrick Mahomes-level playmaking.

 

And I love his poise and on field demeanor too.  The kid is an absolute rock.  Completely even-keeled no matter the situation.  Gets hit hard: nothing.  Makes an unbelievable throw for a TD: no reaction.  Pulls off an edge of your seat scramble for a huge gain on third down: no emotion.  Just goes back to the sideline and sits there like a deactivated robot.  Demeanor very reminiscent of Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert.  Nothing scares or fazes that kid and you can tell the game is just easy to him.

 

Honestly, don't think I've been this excited about a QB prospect since Andrew Luck and RGIII.  Whoever gets this kid is going to have it made.

[Zim489]

18 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

IMO, the #1 overall pick in 2023.

24* but IMO the 2nd pick.

[Skinsinparadise]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/35367564/2023-nfl-mock-draft-jordan-reid-pre-playoffs-first-round-predictions-31-picks-including-qb-landing-spots-future-stars-new-homes

 

10. Tennessee Titans (7-9)

Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

Tennessee has needs at multiple spots along the offensive line, and Skoronski can play all five positions. Despite more than 2,200 snaps at left tackle over his career, there will be some debate about whether he projects better inside or outside. But regardless of where he ends up -- I think he's a tackle -- Skoronski's balance, toughness and physicality as a blocker fit well with the Titans' downhill scheme. Tennessee has allowed 45 sacks this season (tied for seventh-most) and can always use top-tier run-blockers to open things up for Derrick Henry.

Biggest needs: WR, OL, TE

---

11. Philadelphia Eagles (via 7-9 NO)

Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

The Eagles rely on strength in the trenches, and with Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Robert Quinn, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph all scheduled to become unrestricted free agents, they will need help on defense. Verse is primarily a 5-technique, so he wouldn't be a true fix for the team's biggest need of a defensive tackle alongside Jordan Davis, but his combination of powerful hands, first-step explosion and finishing ability would help keep the NFL's best pass-rush unit strong amid the potential losses. Verse picked up nine sacks and 30 pressures this season for the Seminoles.

Biggest needs: DT, CB, S

---

12. Houston Texans (via 7-9 CLE)

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Houston has to continue to collect talent at key positions, but it has the flexibility to take a true best-player-available approach with its second first-round selection after landing quarterback Bryce Young atop the board. And I see the Texans adding a big pass-catcher for him before Day 1 is over. Pairing the 6-4 Johnston with Brandin Cooks, John Metchie III and Nico Collins would give them a much-improved receiver room, and Johnston's catch radius and big-play ability provides Houston with something that isn't currently on the roster. He has gone over 1,000 yards this season, while the Texans are still looking for someone to crack 600.

Biggest needs: QB, WR, EDGE, OL

13. New York Jets (7-9)

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

General manager Joe Douglas has shown an emphasis on drafting premium positions in Round 1, and we've already seen a lot of promise from the Jets' 2022 class. New York could now look to the offensive line, with Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker returning from injury and George Fant set to hit free agency. Johnson is a potential early starter with experience at guard and tackle, and like Skoronski, he's a fit on the outside in the NFL -- which is where the Jets need an infusion of young talent. He has quick feet and strong hands both as a pass protector and run blocker.

Biggest needs: QB, OL, LB

---

14. Washington Commanders (7-8-1)

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Offensive line could be the way to go here, but with the top cornerback still available, it's an easy choice for Washington. Porter has the potential to be an early high-end starter, and at 6-2 and 200 pounds, he's a long and rangy player who isn't afraid to get physical. His aggressiveness can be a gift and curse -- he can get caught out of position and grabby at times -- but his ball skills and savviness in getting hands in throwing windows (11 pass breakups) are standout traits. Pairing him with Benjamin St-Juste would give the Commanders a promising young duo on the perimeter.

Biggest needs: OL, CB, QB

---

15. New England Patriots (8-8)

Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

The Pats' offensive tackle situation has been plagued by injuries and inconsistent play, and Isaiah Wynn is scheduled to become a free agent in the offseason. After only starting four games before this season, Jones has solidified himself as one of the best offensive lineman prospects in this class, allowing zero sacks so far. He's only a redshirt sophomore, but I see Jones as the most mobile of the linemen available. His combination of foot quickness as a pass protector and strength as a run blocker have helped him unlock the next stage of his development, and he'd provide Bill Belichick with a young option to build around at left tackle.

Biggest needs: OT, WR, LB

 

16. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson

We already got the Seahawks arguably the best prospect in the class in Anderson, and now they land a versatile linebacker who thrives in numerous alignments and can get after the quarterback. Simpson can make an impact as a stack linebacker or bring pressure off the edge, and he's an ideal fit for Seattle's scheme. The Seahawks might still be in the playoff hunt, but this defense has allowed 5.6 yards per play and only gotten pressure 27.9% of the time (both rank 23rd). So doubling up on the front seven makes sense here, especially since Simpson can help as a pass-rusher (12.5 career sacks).

Biggest needs: DT, EDGE, C

---

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida

Pittsburgh just invested a first-round pick in quarterback Kenny Pickett, so improving the protection around him is important. The Steelers have historically gravitated toward wide-bodied interior blockers, and Torrence fits the mold at 6-foot-5, 347 pounds. And he uses that frame extraordinarily well in multiple areas, displaying a skill set that translates well to the Steelers' power-running scheme. And he has enough short-area quickness to be dependable in pass protection, evidenced by just two sacks allowed over nearly 3,000 career snaps.

Biggest needs: OL, CB, DT

---

18. Detroit Lions (8-8)

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

The improved play of Jared Goff has quieted the need to draft a quarterback of the future, but the key to sustained success from Goff will be keeping top-tier firepower around him. The D'Andre Swift-Jamaal Williams duo has been exciting this season, but it's possible neither running back is in the team's long-term plans. Swift has battled durability issues and enters the final year of his deal in 2023, while Williams is set to become a free agent this offseason. Robinson would be a significant upgrade after rushing for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2022. His contact balance and short-area quickness are superb, but he also has dependable hands and can be deployed as a receiver from many alignments.

Biggest needs: DL, CB, LB

---

19. Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Mayer fits exactly what the Packers ask of their tight ends as an outstanding pass-catcher and serviceable blocker. He could join receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to form a solid trio of targets for Aaron Rodgers. Mayer's ability to win against contested man coverage and find the holes against zone defenses makes him an intriguing prospect, and he now has back-to-back seasons with at least 800 receiving yards and seven trips to the end zone.

Biggest needs: S, TE, OL\

---

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)

Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

After a national title-clinching pick-six last January, all eyes were on Ringo entering this season, but he had an up-and-down campaign. Landing in a scheme that plays a heavy amount of zone coverage will be key to his success at the next level, and the Bucs use zone 64.3% of the time (sixth-most). Plus, cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean are both free agents after this season. Ringo is speedy and physical, and he has great 6-2, 210-pound size. He picked off two passes and broke up 10 more this season.

Biggest needs: CB, OL, DT

[Skinsinparadise]

Just watched Broderick's Jones game against Tennessee.  My concern about him reminded me of what I said about Anton Harrison which is anchoring in pass protection.   He's a bit sloppy with his hands, not that polished.  He lurches at defenders at time.  

 

But as an O lineman on the move in the run game, he's a fun watch, he loses his balance at times on the move, but boy can he motor down field on the 2nd level.   Loose hips.  Looks the part on that front, where he can be special as a run blocker over time.

 

He's only started for one season so I gather he can grow.  And I like that he's trending up.   I am guessing he will be one of the stronger performers in the combine which should help his draft stock. 

 

He is a project for sure.  But if Masko still has some magic in him, I can see him developing a talent like this.   I don't see him as a top 15 pick the way some mocks have him as. I think he goes somewhere in the 20s.  But who knows, its possible, tackles go high, and especially if he breaks the combine he could rise that high perhaps.  He seems to have long arms, 6"4, 315, and i can see him for sure running a sub 5. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Paris Johnson, I thinks that's the dude I want.  I was a little sour after last weekend seeing him give up a sack.  But just watching a full game, he feels like a really safe prospect.

 

I love the fact that his intangibles are special in the mix of things.  I do think that component is often the difference in talented players being great or not.  He reminds me some of Darrisaw.  

 

He's certainly more polished than Broderick Jones.  Anchors well, stout in pass protection.  Strong-active hands.  Really feisty in pass protection, recovers well, mirros well.   Might have trouble against quick pass rushers who bend around the edge.     Looks solid in the run game.    Looks like he can play power and zone.  You can unwrap the package and put him on an NFL field right away IMO. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Zim489]

I havent dug too much on really any of the OTs but they all look on first glance to be closer to RTs than dominate LTs 

[Koolblue13]

Paris, Skoronski or Porter if we're picking that high would be awesome. 

[illone]

20 hours ago, Zim489 said:

24* but IMO the 2nd pick.

 

True, the battle between those guys next year will be epic to see who solidifies themself as the top pick.  Might depend who is picking up there, too.  

 

Would it be weird to draft another UNC QB?

[Going Commando]

Porter is intriguing but there is zero doubt in my mind that Mayer is better than him.  It would be like two tiers difference for me.  Porter has high end traits but he's not as good as Surtain and Horn were and Mayer is one of the elite prospects of the class to me.  Definitely don't want to stray from BPA unless we're talking about QBs.  We're better off picking Mayer and going with day 2 and 3 DBs.

[Going Commando]

I think my value chart of teens prospects goes Quentin Johnson > Jaxon Smith-Njigba > Michael Mayer > PJ Jr > Skoronski.  If we pick 14, we should be in position to get a year one stud if we pick one of those five.  I like Trenton Simpson too in theory, if we're creative enough to scheme him in an active overhang and pressure role like Dan Quinn does with Parsons, but I don't see him being a stud year one.

Also should note that our secondary is built off day 2 and day 3 DBs with length and range, and Julius Brents is exactly the kind of corner we like and he is probably like a third round talent.  We can have our cake and eat it too by going something like JSN or Mayer in the first, good OL in the second, and Brents in the third.

[Zim489]

I would love QJ. Having a bonified X is something that IMO we desperately need. I dont see Curtis sticking around beyond this upcoming year with a new staff. You finally move Terry into the Z where I think he will shine not having to beat press and Jahan to the slot. 

[Chump Bailey]

On 1/2/2023 at 4:59 PM, Rufus T Firefly said:

Because nobody does it anymore. That's no reason to think it can't work. Some guys need work.

 

If you draft Richardson he needs a lot of work. To not give him that work because it "isn't done anymore' is really dumb thinking. 

 

I don't understand the logic either. There is, in my line of thinking, no better way to prepare for NFL speed other than to see it real time up close and personal. Just my two cents: I am of the opinion that Richardson is much less raw than Willis coming out. I don't think I would have drafted Willis personally but I am liking Richardson as a prospect thus far though I've barely done any homework on that or any other position yet. 

[Koolblue13]

These mocks are all over the place. Seems like they have maybe the top 8 figured out.

5 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Porter is intriguing but there is zero doubt in my mind that Mayer is better than him.

I should add Mayer and Branch to my list. 

[KDawg]

5 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I don't understand the logic either. There is, in my line of thinking, no better way to prepare for NFL speed other than to see it real time up close and personal. Just my two cents: I am of the opinion that Richardson is much less raw than Willis coming out. I don't think I would have drafted Willis personally but I am liking Richardson as a prospect thus far though I've barely done any homework on that or any other position yet. 

I think I like him, too. But still undecided. I think he has to play, too. Sitting a guy CAN work. No right and wrong way in general. But guys who need reps need live fire reps.

[philibusters]

6 hours ago, Going Commando said:

I think my value chart of teens prospects goes Quentin Johnson > Jaxon Smith-Njigba > Michael Mayer > PJ Jr > Skoronski.  If we pick 14, we should be in position to get a year one stud if we pick one of those five.  I like Trenton Simpson too in theory, if we're creative enough to scheme him in an active overhang and pressure role like Dan Quinn does with Parsons, but I don't see him being a stud year one.

Also should note that our secondary is built off day 2 and day 3 DBs with length and range, and Julius Brents is exactly the kind of corner we like and he is probably like a third round talent.  We can have our cake and eat it too by going something like JSN or Mayer in the first, good OL in the second, and Brents in the third.

 

My preference would be PJ Jr., Njigba, Johnson, Skoronski, then Mayer.  That said, my perference will probably change over time.  I follow college football but don't really scout the guys so its not a super informed opinion.

 

My take on each

 

PJ Jr.:  Fairly safe pick with the upside to be a very good player.

Njigba:  The fact that he was the most productive WR in a trio of Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and himself is super impressive.  Not impressed by his 2022 season and would want to do research on his attitude, but still think he will likely be a really good pro.   

Johnson:  Like him a lot as a college player.

Skoronski:  One of the most polished Tackle prospects of the law few years.   Maybe does not have pro bowl ceiling, but has a very high floor.  Without looking back, I cannot think of a tackle more polished than them in the last three years.

Mayer:  A TE that can pass and block.  Athletic but not super athletic, with plus size, he has a high floor like Skoronski, but unlike Skoronski has all pro level ceilling.

[Rufus T Firefly]

5 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I don't understand the logic either. There is, in my line of thinking, no better way to prepare for NFL speed other than to see it real time up close and personal. Just my two cents: I am of the opinion that Richardson is much less raw than Willis coming out. I don't think I would have drafted Willis personally but I am liking Richardson as a prospect thus far though I've barely done any homework on that or any other position yet. 

I mean, obviously getting reps on the field is going to be an important part of a player developing eventually. 

 

But some guys have issues they need to work on, like mechanics, accuracy, basics, etc. To fix those things you need focused coaching, drills, repetition. You don't have time to do that if you're spending all your time working on that week's gamelan and watching opponent film. to to mention how damaging it is to have a guy who's not ready out there falling on his face and losing confidence. 

 

If you draft a guy like Richardson and then prioritize getting him on the field as soon as possible over fixing his issues just becuyase "that's the way it is done" then you are asking for failure. 

[Chump Bailey]

40 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

If you draft a guy like Richardson and then prioritize getting him on the field as soon as possible over fixing his issues just becuyase "that's the way it is done" then you are asking for failure. 

 

I agree with you. Justin Fields, while drastically improved from his days with Nagy, is still struggling somewhat from a mechanics aspect. 

[BrentMeisterGeneral]

I know nothing about how to evaluate rookie QB's and I would never pretend to, with that said bring me Anthony Richardson pls and thx

[Skinsinparadise]

22 hours ago, Zim489 said:

I havent dug too much on really any of the OTs but they all look on first glance to be closer to RTs than dominate LTs 

 

Paris to my eyes looks like a bonafide LT.   Jones to me has some boom-bust in him, might be a better fit at RT considering IMO he's a better run blocker than blindside protector. Probably ditto Anton Harrison.  I haven't watched Sloronski yet, I noticed some saying he's more suited to guard to tackle. 

 

As to guard, I like Torrence a lot but 10-14 is way early for him. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, BrentMeisterGeneral said:

I know nothing about how to evaluate rookie QB's and I would never pretend to, with that said bring me Anthony Richardson pls and thx

 

I am ok in theory with Richardson but he's definitely a red shirt prospect, boom-bust.  Great arm, mobile, great size,   Atrocious accuracy on the first level and 2nd level.

 

Wondering if Willis' poor start effects Richardson's draft status.    Willis is smaller than Richardson but otherwise fits a similar profile -- toolsy guy, nice deep ball, rocket arm, mobile as heck -- poor accuracy on the first and 2nd level.

 

I haven't decided on Richardson, I got to watch him closely versus what i have done so far which is watch him at times in real time.  Intriguing tools for sure. 

 

Back to Willis, it was probably too soon to start him this year.  So the book isn't written yet.

 

 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/titans_qb_malik_willis_having_historically_unproductive_start_to_career/s1_13132_38286735

Titans QB Malik Willis having historically unproductive start to career

By Adam Gretz  |  Last updated 12/27/22

 

 

Malik Willis might end up being a very good quarterback for the Tennessee Titans at some point in his career, but he still has quite a ways to go before he gets there. 

To say Willis has struggled in his first handful of appearances would be quite an understatement, and it is putting him in some rather infamous company. 

He has failed to reach the 100-yard passing mark in any of his first three starts, making him just the third quarterback in the past 40 years to fail to do so. The other two quarterbacks on that list are Dan McGwire and Nathan Peterman. 

In his starts against Houston, Kansas City, and Houston again he has managed to throw for just 55, 80, and 99 yards respectively. Combined with some mop-up and reserve duty in a handful of other games, Willis has completed just 50 percent of his pass attempts, thrown for only 276 yards (4.5 yards per attempt), and has yet to complete a touchdown pass. He has also thrown three interceptions and fumbled twice. 

It has been a challenge.

Even when he was projected as a potential first-round pick (he ended up falling to the third round) Willis was always viewed as more of a project than an immediate starter, and it has definitely been a struggle for him so far. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

I was low on Willis because of his size, but I think Richardson has the size needed to play like himself. He fits the mold of the QBs I like.

[Skinsinparadise]

Watched a little Quentin Johnston aside from the real time games just now.  I watched Smith-Njigba last week a bit deeper.

 

IMHO Quentin is more intriguing to me than Smith-Njigba.  Quentin is special at least physically -- a freak.  His size, his hands, his speed.   Tracks the deep ball well. Elusive with the ball in his hands.  He has superstar talent.   Those long thin legs, make him a big play waiting to happen, in a game changer type of way just like what we saw on New Years versus Michigan. 

 

I like what I've seen from Smith-Njigba seems like a pure slot receiver.  Not the most physical player, not the fastest dude.  Zone beater, gets open quickly in short spaces in between the numbers, in that regard he reminds me some of watching Dotson at Penn State but is a better YAC guy.  Smith-Njigba is high floor.  Johnston IMO high ceiling.   To my eyes, Smith-Njigba beats you on the first-2nd level whereas Johnston on the first-3rd -- YAC-deep threat.

 

Johnston likely blows up the combine and Smith-Njigba I doubt kills it.  So I got little doubt Johnston goes first among the Wrs. If it were me I'd take Johnston first of those two WRs and it wouldn't be a tough call.   I'd be mildly surpised if Johnson makes it to our pick.  I think slam dunk Smith-Njigba makes it.  I like Smith-Njigba but I would take Johnston over him and ditto Michael Mayer and ditto Paris Johnson among the players I've watched thus far.  He'd be next.

 

I seriously doubt they draft a WR though.  I know BPA, etc.  But this regime and the previous regime tended to go BPA within their need spots.  So I am guessing OL, TE, CB, maybe QB would be the spots they fish in.   so there is so much I intend to dive into WRs this time.  I am going to go heavy on TE (it seems like for the zillionth time), OL, CB.  Some QB.  Some LB. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

I think Richardson is a pretty bad QB right now.  Going through his cut ups, spectacular arm, wheels, and body.  Truly elite physical traits and he is OK with his ball placement on first read throws. 

 

But the kid can't see the field at all.  He plays through a straw both as a runner and passer.  He doesn't read the field or coverage and he almost never moves off his first reads without panicking because he hasn't figured anything out pre snap and doesn't know where anyone is if he hasn't been staring them down since the snap.  And he struggles finding space as a runner.  Basically just picks a lane and goes (often into the backs of his blockers) and only adjusts to maybe the first defender in the area, if that. 

 

And his spatial awareness on the field is pretty poor, which stems from the vision and situational awareness issues.  You see stuff like him running across the LoS and throwing because a defender delayed/moved him off his first read and throwing lane, and he just couldn't get past that read in time to realize he has to run.  Then on the rare snap he works to his second read, It's pure panic and he sprays the ball, either throwing into the coverage or just keeping the ball out of play altogether and throwing it to grass.  Even on the plays where he's looking off the first read during a clean pocket drop, I can tell it's crudely performative because he won't actually be looking at any other read, just kind of staring into an empty space in the field.  He's not selling anything and NFL DBs are going to read him like a book.

 

He doesn't read his pressures well either.  You're not getting anything from him pre snap on that front, and he doesn't feel the rush well.  You can tell Florida's OC wasn't comfortable with him in the pocket and was trying to protect him with frequent moving pockets and sprint outs that cut the field down for him and just gave him one rusher to deal with in space--battles he can easily win.  That's not going to work well in the NFL, you have to make these secondaries defend the whole field because they're just going to shade coverages and rushes to the right and absolutely squeeze any throwing lanes on that side of the field.

 

I don't know about this kid, and I definitely would not draft him in the first round.  He's a fabulous athlete with the truly rare combo of size and speed paired with cat like short area quickness, and he's a true power thrower.  But he is straight up a bad and super limited QB.  He's not even a good college QB yet, and Malik Willis was a way better passer and field reader than him.  He's Interesting as a late day two/early day three project due to his athletic traits, because why not at that point in the draft?  But I honestly don't think he has the football IQ and situational awareness and ability to read the game at the advanced level the NFL requires to play the position.  He's about to jump into the deep end of the sport still struggling to make true freshman year reads.  To reiterate, he's basically not reading anything, just reacting and praying and there is no mastery of the game in his play at all, just a whole lot of panic.  It is night and day watching him play vs a really advanced QB like Drake Maye or Bryce Young who are reading the whole field like a poised and confiident pro on a majority of their reps.