2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[method man]

17 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I'm skeptical about Darnell Washington.  You always notice him on the field because of his size but it feels like he makes almost no impact on the games, whereas dudes like Bowers and Mayer are authentic stars that are almost always popping.  Washington seems like a mid round TE in a first round body kind of like Njoku.  No way he ends up being as good and impactful in the NFL as the other first round offensive skill players at WR and RB.

 

First round TEs have been really low value bets the past ten years.  When is the last time a first round TE ended up being a top five player at the position?  Tyler Eifert seven years ago?

Exactly this! First round TEs consistently disappoint and underperform vs expectations. Even if a TE did perform, the value you get out of the position isn’t first round level.

That being said, I wouldn’t mind adding someone in rd 2/rd 3 (Logan Thomas is the easiest cut candidate at the end of this year)

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I view the position's draft value as being like RB.  For a guy to be a first round talent, he needs to be the clear cut best player on a good team, and often times they're already at that level as Freshmen.  It's a position where natural talent separates the transcendent ones from the good ones and they tend to show it right away.

 

I agree about the RB analogy.  Typically I am late 2nd to 4th round guy as to the TE spot.   For whatever reason, i probably watched more TEs in the last 4 years in the context of percentange of draftable players compared to other spots.  Probably a toss up with WR.    And this crop of TEs intrigue me based on my early look-reading.  

 

Also I really like our skilled players on offense.  TE though seems to be a gaping hole and of course O line.  And if we are going to run 12, 13 personnel, then I want a bonafide difference maker Y TE to maximize that. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I'd be elated

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-mock-draft-lions-roar-grows-louder-with-anthony-richardson/

 

21) Washington Commanders: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

There are options for the Commanders to consider at CB and OT here, but few of those options are as highly rated on the composite board as tight end Michael Mayer.

With Mayer, Washington gets not only a successor, but an upgrade to Logan Thomas, and they can capitalize on the draft’s OT and CB depth later on.

 

[method man]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd be elated

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-mock-draft-lions-roar-grows-louder-with-anthony-richardson/

 

21) Washington Commanders: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

There are options for the Commanders to consider at CB and OT here, but few of those options are as highly rated on the composite board as tight end Michael Mayer.

With Mayer, Washington gets not only a successor, but an upgrade to Logan Thomas, and they can capitalize on the draft’s OT and CB depth later on.

 

 

I thought this draft had interior depth but not OT depth. I think this draft is going to give the league a much needed infusion of TE talent but a stud TE feels like a luxury. Given the depth at the position, there will be good prospects available in rd 2.

 

If we keep the first round pick and don't go the route of taking a QB, give me any of Skoronski, Johnson Jr, Jones or Harrison. I know the OL is having a down year but I still believe in Matsko's ability to coach if he has the right guy from a talent, intelligence and work ethic standpoint. I would then try to get one of these bigger center prospects in rd 2 or rd 3 and allow that player to compete at LG his rookie year with the goal of replacing Roullier in 2024. 

[Zim489]

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Zim489

[Going Commando]

What do you guys think about Skoronski?

 

I'm a Paris Johnson Jr fan and I think most of you guys are too, but I think he's going to be OT1 by draft day.  Skoronski might be the top OL name on the board in our pick range.

[method man]

5 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

What do you guys think about Skoronski?

 

I'm a Paris Johnson Jr fan and I think most of you guys are too, but I think he's going to be OT1 by draft day.  Skoronski might be the top OL name on the board in our pick range.

Skoronski’s lack of length is alarming for me. I like PJ Jr but I am up for Jones and Harrison as well

[Zim489]

8 minutes ago, method man said:

Skoronski’s lack of length is alarming for me. I like PJ Jr but I am up for Jones and Harrison as well

If he comes out at over 33 in arm length thats good enough for me. Obviously longer the better. 

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, method man said:

Skoronski’s lack of length is alarming for me. I like PJ Jr but I am up for Jones and Harrison as well

 

Yeah, it's the thing that is popping up as a negative for me too.  Causes him to bend too much at the waist too as he's lunging forward to try and extend his reach.

 

It's not killing him for me though, I think it's more of an issue as a run blocker when he's got to hold a block moving forward than when he's going backward as a pass protector.  What I'm wanting from a LT prospect is superior pass pro, and I think he can give that to you.  He's got some similarity to Rashawn Slater in that he's undersized with low end length, but he compensates with a super fast first step and twitched-up, high end reactive athleticism.  I think it also looks like he has really big hands like Slater too.  They latch on to you and then just mirror back and forth and you can not get their hands off of you.  Velcro blockers with really good instincts and reflexes in pass-pro.

 

The other thing I like about Skoronski is that he is physical, he puts dudes on the ground when he gets the chance, and he always looks for work.  You can't take that as a given with this OL class.  I think he has really good balance too.  Really doesn't end up on the ground that much even when he's lunging, and is just really good at continually resetting his feet through contact and out-leveraging match ups.

 

I also think he's got five position versatility.  I think he was actually recruited as a center, so we'd probably have a bunch of different options for how to play him on our line.

 

I haven't watched Harrison yet, but I'm almost 100% out on Jones.  Maybe he'll surprise me and get me to revise my takes in the CFP, but right now I think he's like a third round developmental pick at best.  He's tiny for an OT and he plays soft as baby ****.  I definitely think he needs to go back for another season to try and get bigger and tougher before jumping to the NFL and getting his **** pushed in.

[skinny21]

On 12/19/2022 at 1:25 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Richardson intrigues me.

 

But my feeling is they go with Jimmy G and they go nuts in the draft at O line.

 

Rivera isn't that cagey about his intentions and thoughts.  He's shared his dissappointed at the O line and believes you win in the trenches.  I think its going to be all hands on deck focused on the line.

 

I am still a BPA guy.  But if their identity is going to be ground and pound then IMO -- O line, O line, O line and a Y-TE.    

 

From who I've watched and been tracking this is going to be a uniquely good draft for TE.  

It’s interesting, because Turner obviously would rather run a pass heavy offense, but oline issues have lead to the ground and pound.  So if we fix the oline, what does he do?  Revert, or does RR push him to stick with this current identity (it’s possible Turner’s had a change of heart, but I doubt it)?  Of course, it will also depend on who our qb is…

[Going Commando]

13 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

If he comes out at over 33 in arm length thats good enough for me. Obviously longer the better. 

 

I've seen a range of 32 to 32.5 being posted about him.  It's going to be really low end for an OT unfortunately.  But I think it's also the reason he might still be available to us if we're picking late teens or early 20s.  He checks out otherwise--lots of strong tape with lots of starting experience for a true junior, and I think he's going to run pretty well.

[Zim489]

12 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I've seen a range of 32 to 32.5 being posted about him.  It's going to be really low end for an OT unfortunately.  But I think it's also the reason he might still be available to us if we're picking late teens or early 20s.  He checks out otherwise--lots of strong tape with lots of starting experience for a true junior, and I think he's going to run pretty well.

I remember reading years ago that if an OT measures out sub 33 arms their chance of being a pro bowl player drops by like 80%. Its one of the few set numbers that are well established for measurements

[Going Commando]

I like the range of what you can see from Skoronski in these cut ups against Ohio State:

 

 

He handled Tuimoloau pretty well I thought.  They're about the same size and both win with quickness and converting speed to power, and I think Skoronski just kind of outfoxed and outhustled him for most of the day.

 

You can see some real struggles with Zach Harrison's length, but I like that he keeps battling him.  He's a competitor and that kind of effort is what you want to see from an OL when he's matched up against a DL who is physically superior.  You can see he just could not push Harrison off the edge in the run game, but he is absolutely flying off the line of scrimmage with his pass sets and Harrison can't get around him or long arm him.

 

BTW Harrison is pretty impressive.  He looks like a legit 6'6 and has 36" arms.  He's like a bulked up Montez Sweat, absolute hulk of a DE.  I'm kind of surprised he's not getting more love from draftniks.  I know the production isn't there, but he has the body to go late first round.  I think he's going to elevate his stock at the combine when people start getting some official measurements and numbers on him.  Senior bowl week will be big for him too, people are going to want to see him dominate some OLs in the practices.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I like the range of what you can see from Skoronski in these cut ups against Ohio State:

 

 

He handled Tuimoloau pretty well I thought.  They're about the same size and both win with quickness and converting speed to power, and I think Skoronski just kind of outfoxed and outhustled him for most of the day.

 

You can see some real struggles with Zach Harrison's length, but I like that he keeps battling him.  He's a competitor and that kind of effort is what you want to see from an OL when he's matched up against a DL who is physically superior.  You can see he just could not push Harrison off the edge in the run game, but he is absolutely flying off the line of scrimmage with his pass sets and Harrison can't get around him or long arm him.

 

BTW Harrison is pretty impressive.  He looks like a legit 6'6 and has 36" arms.  He's like a bulked up Montez Sweat, absolute hulk of a DE.  I'm kind of surprised he's not getting more love from draftniks.  I know the production isn't there, but he has the body to go late first round.  I think he's going to elevate his stock at the combine when people start getting some official measurements and numbers on him.  Senior bowl week will be big for him too, people are going to want to see him dominate some OLs in the practices.

 

I haven't watched any of the O lineman yet aside from Torrence.  Skoronski and Paris Johnson seem out of reach in most mocks but granted mocks this early are often way off.  But the top O lineman typically go early

29 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

It’s interesting, because Turner obviously would rather run a pass heavy offense, but oline issues have lead to the ground and pound.  So if we fix the oline, what does he do?  Revert, or does RR push him to stick with this current identity (it’s possible Turner’s had a change of heart, but I doubt it)?  Of course, it will also depend on who our qb is…

 

I think the pass happy drill was predicated by QB. The fantasy that Wentz's big arm would open things up.

 

I think the easier road is to double down on playing smash mouth versus hope to find that QB.

 

I am always on board with swinging for a QB but I think the odds work against them.  Better shot to fix the O line IMO add a Y-TE who is a beast and run with this formula.  Upgrade QB at the same time but without it eating up a ton of cap room.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

10 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

I remember reading years ago that if an OT measures out sub 33 arms their chance of being a pro bowl player drops by like 80%. Its one of the few set numbers that are well established for measurements

 

I wouldn't put too much faith in odds like that because they'd be biased by the fact that the NFL doesn't even  really let anyone play OT with sub 33" arms.  If you are any good as an OL prospect and you have arms that short, then the league is going to kick you inside to guard or center almost 100% of the time.  I honestly can't remember the last OT prospect who got picked in the first round with sub 33" arms.  But I also have no doubt that if you stuck Zack Martin at OT for a season, he could probably make the Pro Bowl from that spot too.

 

But yeah, that arm length measurement is probably going to be the thing that make or breaks Skoronski's draft stock and determines whether or not he kicks inside.  If he measures low 32, then he's going to play guard or center at the next level.  I'd draft him as the top OC prospect in the class, but he'd work at LG too.  Most of all, I'm hoping he hits 33" though and we can keep him at LT, because it'd be nice to have a high end athlete at that spot.

[Zim489]

1 hour ago, Zim489 said:

 

 

 

On this

 

If youre not going to get a QB in 2023, which I doubt, and honestly don't want Ron picking in a lame duck year (I think its possible to have a new gm but no new Coaching staff lead by an interim JDR due to being late to the table with the ownership change) then they need to do everything in power to ensure that they get one of the top 2 picks in 2024. They will not be able to trade into that opportunity. I think they are far closer to that position than most people here would like to admit. A couple of fluky bounces go the other way (the drop vs the Jags, the drop vs the bears) and this team is eying a top 10 pick.

 

Now I hate the stigma people attach to "tanking". Feel most people view it the wrong way. Im not talking about the coaches or players purposefully lose games but the FO can tactfully maneuver the roster in a way to have it be bad while preparing for the future.

 

Here are some non crazy moves that can be made.

Payne Tag and Trade. I know some love him but paying 2 DTs in the 2020s is just not a good roster building maneuver. Its too much money into one position.

Trade Sweat or Chase. I lean towards trading Sweat. Chase right now is still the face of the franchises future. For as good as Jon and Terry are they arent faces of franchise type of players. Also coupling with the comment for Payne. Paying both DEs in the 2020s isnt the smartest play. At this point Id lean to only keeping 2 of the 4. More money to spend on the offense and back 7 of the defense. Analytics continue to push that coverage is far more important that pass rush.

Trade back in 2023 for as much capital as you can for 24. Thats an easy given. If you cant still attempt to move back and collect picks. Draft high end talents that requires some developing that you don't really count on in year 1. Unlike this past draft which was full of high floor guys that were drafted solely for their ability to contribute year one and not for their ceilings.

 

Players Im cutting or attempting to trade that has minimal chance of being here beyond year 1 of the new staff. Currently they are slated right now to have roughly 20 mil in cap before making a single move. Wentz Samuels Fuller Leno Roullier Norwell Lucas JD Mccain Gibson(Dont like resigning RBs. They rarely live up to value)

 

With these moves they get up to 100 mil in Cap space. They would have a tremendous slate for a quick turn around with a new staff. Front load some contracts of guys in need of resigning like Curl.

 

We would be BAD in 2023. Zero QB. Zero Oline. The offense would be horrendous. We'd however have a fantastic draft pick. A boat load of cap space with rollovers. All with out losing really any of our youthful base. On offense you still have Terry and Dotson (Not super high on his ceiling but a fine player). On Defense you still have 4-5 legit building blocks for the defense in Chase JA Jamin BSJ Curl and possibly Forrest. You luck into a Caleb or Drake Sweepstakes and this team could be in SB contention by 2025.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Zim489

[Koolblue13]

[Koolblue13]

On 12/20/2022 at 2:36 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd be elated

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-mock-draft-lions-roar-grows-louder-with-anthony-richardson/

 

21) Washington Commanders: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

There are options for the Commanders to consider at CB and OT here, but few of those options are as highly rated on the composite board as tight end Michael Mayer.

With Mayer, Washington gets not only a successor, but an upgrade to Logan Thomas, and they can capitalize on the draft’s OT and CB depth later on.

 

I a TE rich draft, with OL and CB being such huge needs, I can see us drafting a ****ing TE in the 1rst. 

[Warhead36]

I'd prefer CB over TE as well. I like St. Juste but we have no other viable outside options. Fuller needs to be slot full time. And you always need CB depth nowadays, basically need four viable CBs to counter most good offenses who will have four viable pass catchers.

[Chump Bailey]

If this is a great TE class it makes sense to capitalize on it, but I'd like to go after UFA TE Josh Oliver Ravens who could come at a bargain price. 

[Warhead36]

First round picks should be reserved for QB, LT, WR, Edge, or CB. They are the premium positions that also cost the most. That's how you efficiently build a roster. 

[Skinsinparadise]

40 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I a TE rich draft, with OL and CB being such huge needs, I can see us drafting a ****ing TE in the 1rst. 

 

Michael Mayer isn't an ordinary TE.   With the emergence of St. Juste and Danny Johnson playing well too, I am not so sure CB is a code red spot albiet this is a really good draft for CB.

 

When i watched over the years Kmet and Tremble, the dude who stood out above them, I think Mayer was 19 in the year Kmet came out, was Mayer.  He was the best TE on that club.  I talked about it at the time.  I wanted to zone on on Kmet but man that dude Mayer seemed to be their go to dude even back then.     

 

He does it all.  Rare old school Y TE who can block on an elite level and catch and seperate at 265 pounds.

 

If they want to major in smash mouth football, he's the top dude IMO because he's not just a blocker.   He's basically a rich man's Hockenson. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

55 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

First round picks should be reserved for QB, LT, WR, Edge, or CB. They are the premium positions that also cost the most. That's how you efficiently build a roster. 

I mostly agree.

 

Having said that, it's important to note there are exceptions to every rule.

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Still early, but looking like Drake Maye could be legitimate. Also going to assume the two schools are Georgia and another in the SEC. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by Professor_Nutter_Butter

[Skinsinparadise]

21 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

First round picks should be reserved for QB, LT, WR, Edge, or CB. They are the premium positions that also cost the most. That's how you efficiently build a roster. 

 

I get the point but I am not locked into a specific positions in the 2nd half of the first round especially where I am flexible.  I use the position value though more of if it is a tie between the players, then I favor the position.

 

Shooting for need or shooting for a position can get you in trouble at times.  IMO PBA, PBA, BPA.    Top TES are probably pushing 20 million soon.  Waller is at 17 million.   The position's value IMO is rising, just like guard.  Great players can change a game regardless of their spot.  Look at what Kelce for example means to the Chiefs?  A great TE can help change an offense and as far as skilled positions in this team IMO its the missing link.  I was listening to a SF reporter on a podcast who knew our team as well and he was asked what's the difference between SF and this one, and on offense in the mix he referenced Kittle.  

 

I want elite players.  Hated hearing for example under Gibbs that they really really wanted a CB hence they took Carlos Rodgers.   I don't like that approach in general.  Yes CBs are valuable.  Heck i recall posting here that Sauce Gardner looks special, and he'd be on the table for me even though corner wasn't a top need last off season.

 

The larger point for me is where are you picking.  If I am picking at 20 or so. Everythiing being equal, I'd rather have the best player (if they are elite) at a lesser spot versus the 4th best player at another spot unless that other spot is so loaded that the 4th best player is borderline elite, too.

 

For example I didn't think Kyle Hamilton was worthy of a top 10 pick in the last draft because of his position.  But he was on the table for me at 10-20.

 

Kyle Hamilton was no reach where they took him.  Ravens are not exactly dumb as drafters.  Part of what some teams do is take advantage of an elite player who falls down in the draft because of the position they play not being as big of a premium.  that logic would apply to where we are likely picking.

 

Hamilton by PFF grades is borderline elite as a rookie already.  IMO Mayer is sort of the Hamilton in the draft.  Top 10 talent who will justfiably fall because of his position -- but those teams who benefit from that fall IMO would not be foolish to take him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Skinsinparadise