2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[philibusters]

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Levis will fall out of the 1st completely. Or maybe some team trades up from the 2nd back into the 1st to snag him.

 

Never say never, but I would be shocked if Levis fell out of the first round.  I think if he reaches 10 or 11 teams will look to trade up.  Maybe a bit like the 2017 draft where the Chiefs traded up with the Bills to pick Patrick Mahomes at 10 or the Texans traded with the Eagles to pick Deshaun Watson at 12 (or even like the 2021 draft where the Bears traded up with the Giants to pick Justin Fields).  I think that 10 to 13 range is likely the range a team would trade up to get him.

 

But if he fell to the end of the first round I think a team would trade back into the first round to get him because that 5th year option is so much valuable for the QB position than any other position.  

Edited March 31, 2023 by philibusters

[Warhead36]

Just now, philibusters said:

 

Never say never, but I would be shocked if Levis fell out of the first round.  I think if he reaches 10 or 11 teams will look to trade up.  Maybe a bit like the 2017 draft where the Chiefs traded up with the Bills to pick Patrick Mahomes at 10 or the Texans traded with the Eagles to pick Deshaun Watson at 12 (or even like the 2021 draft where the Bears traded up with the Giants to pick Justin Fields).  I think that 10 to 13 range is likely the range a team would trade up to get him.

Levis ain't Mahomes or Watson. Those guys dominated college football. Levis's production was fairly mediocre. Yeah yeah I know he played at Kentucky, but the truly great college QBs put up #s no matter who they play with.

[method man]

12 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Watched a Q & A with Keim for an hour.  nothing really surprising.  He said he's behind where he typically is at this point about probing about the draft because he's been fixated on the ownership stuff.

 

A.  O line, CB.  

B.  Edge could be a darkhorse early pick but regardless expect one taken in this draft

C.  Later on in the draft and or in FA --LB-RB.

D.  They'd like to trade down

E.  They'd rather not move Wylie from RT.   There is a chance a tackle drafted might be a threat to Leno.

F.  They really really like Cole Turner, got banged up and that halted his progress last year but they are high on him

G.  They actually like S. Charles but their issue with him is durability

H. Seems to suspect CB might not be in the first because of the depth at that spot

I.  Hinited they likely do want to fill in a LG and seems to expect multiple O lineman taken.

J.  Doesn't think they take a QB early

 

 

This would seem to eliminate Dawand and Darnell, which is a shame. As others have said, it keeps the door for Harrison open though. I can see why the path to trading down a few picks, grabbing a 3rd, landing Harrison and releasing Leno to save a lot of cap may be an attractive option

[Going Commando]

44 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Many Ts have talked about how difficult it is going from Right to Left and vice versa. 
 

Imagine all the things you do with your right hand/foot. Brush your teeth. Drive. etc. Now do all those things with your left hand(or left to right). Its muscle memory and habits as much as anything else. 

 

I'm not talking about flipping an OT mid game like edges do.  And I'm not saying it's easy for the player to switch sides.  But it is absolutely something that almost all of them go through in their football careers.  My point is that there is no skill set or schematic difference between playing RT and LT any more.

[Going Commando]

29 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I feel like we keep having the same conversation.

 

We do.  And it's because the incorrect notion that there is a meaningful difference between playing LT and RT keeps getting posited.  It's a 20 year old way of looking at the position, and it's something we've fully moved away from doing with DLs, but not OLs apparently.  An OT prospect is an OT prospect.  There is no such thing as a RT only prospect in 2022.  You can not hide scrubs who can't pass protect on that side of your line any more, because the Nick Bosas of the NFL don't only play RE any more.

[KDawg]

Just now, Going Commando said:

 

We do.  And it's because the incorrect notion that there is a meaningful difference between playing LT and RT keeps getting posited.  It's a 20 year old way of looking at the position, and it's something we've fully moved away from doing with DLs, but not OLs apparently.  An OT prospect is an OT prospect.  There is no such thing as a RT only prospect in 2022.  You can not hide scrubs who can't pass protect on that side of your line any more, because the Nick Bosas of the NFL don't only play RE any more.

 

No one thinks the skillsets are different.

[Going Commando]

Just now, KDawg said:

No one thinks the skillsets are different.

 

Then why was this question asked?

 

  

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Which of the OT prospects translates best to LT? Harrison? Thats probably the one we take.

 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Going Commando said:

 

Then why was this question asked?

 

  

 

 

Because of the transition needed from right side to left side from a side switch perspective.

 

You keep looking at it like people don't realize the skillsets are the same. The dirty truth is they always have been. 

 

But others are asking who has the ability to transition based on our opinions. Or, guys that are already LTs that are going to translate to NFL LT easier due to the side they play on.

 

You're right that the skillsets aren't different, but that's never been the contention. At least in this thread. I'm sure there are many others who don't understand that. 

[Skinsinparadise]

44 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I would guess there are three QBs guaranteed to go in the top 5 in this draft. Virtual lock.

 

Where #4 goes is going to be interesting. For the first time in the process I think it's possible Levis falls into the teens.

 

[Warhead36]

I doubt the Titans take a QB. I think they're full on tank so try to secure one of next year's top prospects. They just got a new GM and I doubt he's gonna wanna hitch his wagon to a prospect as...iffy as Levis. And there is no way Vrabel is gonna want such a raw QB when he's already stuck with Malik Willis.

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Because of the transition needed from right side to left side from a side switch perspective.

 

You keep looking at it like people don't realize the skillsets are the same. The dirty truth is they always have been. 

 

But others are asking who has the ability to transition based on our opinions. Or, guys that are already LTs that are going to translate to NFL LT easier due to the side they play on.

 

You're right that the skillsets aren't different, but that's never been the contention. At least in this thread. I'm sure there are many others who don't understand that. 

 

Maybe you're right, although I think you're being extremely charitable.  I think people are absolutely operating on an outdated conception of the RT position, and thinking there are still RT only prospects (and it's not just draftniks doing it, I see it in actual NFL personnel men takes).  It did used to be the case that guys who sucked in pass pro, but could run block, could thrive by only playing on the right side of OLs.  Teams used to play their best pass rushers exclusively at ROLB and RE, QBs used to run vertical passing offense by taking tons of long drops from under center, and TEs used to play in line.  The skill sets of LTs and RTs did used to be meaningfully different.

 

But say you are 100% right, and we're just debating opinions on whether a guy is flexible or ambidextrous enough to smoothly switch sides once he gets to the NFL.  That narrow debate feels absurdly speculative.  Are we going to start breaking down how strong the guys left hand looks?  How coordinated he is in that left foot?  That is not my sense of what we are actually debating.

[KDawg]

Just now, Going Commando said:

 

 

But say you are 100% right, and we're just debating opinions on whether a guy is flexible or ambidextrous enough to smoothly switch sides once he gets to the NFL.  That narrow debate feels absurdly speculative.  Are we going to start breaking down how strong the guys left hand looks?  How coordinated he is in that left foot?  That is not my sense of what we are actually debating.

 

I agree. I don't answer because I have absolutely no idea.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Going Commando]

Is that twitter user talking about Andre Carter for us?

 

We haven't really talked about him a lot in this thread, what do we think of him in the second or third?

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Is that twitter user talking about Andre Carter for us?

 

We haven't really talked about him a lot in this thread, what do we think of him in the second or third?

I have him in the middle of my DE rankings. I’ve watched 20 dudes and I think they’re all close to my top 100

 

A few won’t make it but man it’s going to be interesting. 

[Going Commando]

Just now, KDawg said:

I have him in the middle of my DE rankings. I’ve watched 20 dudes and I think they’re all close to my top 100

 

A few won’t make it but man it’s going to be interesting. 

 

He's harder for me to envision as an NFL player than any of the other top edges because he is so clearly disadvantaged in his football development by his college program compared to them.  He's almost like an NBA prospect in how underdeveloped his body is compared to what it's going to be like in the league.  I don't know if anyone else has seen the pictures of Giannis Antetokounmpo when he first got to the league, compared to where he is now--that's what it's probably going to be like for Carter.  Thirty pounds more muscle draped on his shoulders and torso.

 

It wasn't a good look watching him get manhandled in the one on ones at the SB, made you realize there is zero chance this guy will be able to play as a rookie.  But it did remind me a little bit of Payton Turner, who wasn't as skinny as Carter, but he was a wiry rusher who went through a body transformation in the NFL.  Levers for arms, constantly fighting through contact to find his path to the QB.

 

The one thing that gives me a little pause about projecting leaps and bounds growth from Carter is his playing demeanor.  I don't question his toughness, I question his meanness.  Great NFL DLs are savages, not honorable Army guys.  Does Carter have that killer in him?

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Going Commando said:

 

He's harder for me to envision as an NFL player than any of the other top edges because he is so clearly disadvantaged in his football development by his college program compared to them.  He's almost like an NBA prospect in how underdeveloped his body is compared to what it's going to be like in the league.  I don't know if anyone else has seen the pictures of Giannis Antetokounmpo when he first got to the league, compared to where he is now--that's what it's probably going to be like for Carter.  Thirty pounds more muscle draped on his shoulders and torso.

 

It wasn't a good look watching him get manhandled in the one on ones at the SB, made you realize there is zero chance this guy will be able to play as a rookie.  But it did remind me a little bit of Payton Turner, who wasn't as skinny as Carter, but he was a wiry rusher who went through a body transformation in the NFL.  Levers for arms, constantly fighting through contact to find his path to the QB.

 

The one thing that gives me a little pause about projecting leaps and bounds growth from Carter is his playing demeanor.  I don't question his toughness, I question his meanness.  Great NFL DLs are savages, not honorable Army guys.  Does Carter have that killer in him?

 

TO me he's not a true end. He's a guy you have to utilize in specific ways, especially as he gets up to the NFL of play. For us, I don't love his fit. 

[philibusters]

Carter definitely hurt his stock at the combine.  A bad bench press for a DE (11 reps) and middle of the pack shuttle and jump numbers.

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, philibusters said:

Carter definitely hurt his stock at the combine.  A bad bench press for a DE (11 reps) and middle of the pack shuttle and jump numbers.

Agree. He dropped on my list quite a bit, too. 

[seantaylor=god]

31 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

The one thing that gives me a little pause about projecting leaps and bounds growth from Carter is his playing demeanor.  I don't question his toughness, I question his meanness.  Great NFL DLs are savages, not honorable Army guys.  Does Carter have that killer in him?

4 years training as an Army Officer, he has some great attributes for sure (Leadership, management skills, toughness, intellect) but the savagery I would want from a defensive professional football player? Not a chance.*The best you could hope for would be the type of workmanlike professionalism, attention to detail, and competitiveness of a guy like Jon Allen.

 

I have zero interest in him as a player, but I wish him the best in his future endeavors.
 

*I am a former US Army Officer.

Edited March 31, 2023 by seantaylor=god

[skinny21]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Many Ts have talked about how difficult it is going from Right to Left and vice versa. 
 

Imagine all the things you do with your right hand/foot. Brush your teeth. Drive. etc. Now do all those things with your left hand(or left to right). Its muscle memory and habits as much as anything else. 

Maybe I’m missing something, but wouldn’t an edge rusher flipping sides have the same sort of issues?

[Going Commando]

9 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Maybe I’m missing something, but wouldn’t an edge rusher flipping sides have the same sort of issues?

 

Yes.  Your three point stance flips depending on what side you line up on.  Your inside hand flips, etc.

 

But what we're talking about is not actually as finely tuned to handedness as tasks like eating or brushing your teeth.  We're basically talking about fighting and wrestling, and if you're good, you can fight with both hands.  Same for the footwork, and most people probably don't favor one foot to the extent that they favor one hand.  If you're a professional caliber offensive lineman, you can bucket step and slide with either foot.

 

One of the reasons people used to think it was better to rush from the right side of the DL was because they thought it was easier for force fumbles on right handed QBs coming from the left side of their formation.  The thought was they couldn't see the contact coming as well and wouldn't be able to protect the ball.  But the truth is that it's actually easier to reach the ball of a right handed QB when you rush from his right, and good pass rushers are really good with their left hands and they can use it to punch/chop the ball while they're right hand is being blocked.  Nick Bosa talked about this, and explained that it's why he actually prefers to rush from a LE alignment.  Said he likes it better because he doesn't have to get off his blocks to get sack fumbles.

[redskinss]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

Is that twitter user talking about Andre Carter for us?

 

We haven't really talked about him a lot in this thread, what do we think of him in the second or third?

I think he was talking about jalen Carter because he said "drops that far"

There's no expectation for Andre Carter to go high but jalen Carter before his arrest was expected to be a top 5 pick.

 

[KDawg]

44 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Maybe I’m missing something, but wouldn’t an edge rusher flipping sides have the same sort of issues?

Yes.

 

But the technique is easier for an edge because in a pass rush they are the aggressor. But the three point stance and take off can be challenging for some.

 

Typically edges are also better athletes. And many use two point stances now to overcome it.

[Est.1974]

I think the perception at the tackle position is likely changing because there are fewer elite LT knocking around now. You have players like Orlando Brown who play left, many teams should be right. Maybe the league is predominantly full of swing tackle level players.

 

But man, you get a Trent Williams elite athlete and he’s not going to get out of bed to play RT. 

Edited March 31, 2023 by Est.1974