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2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread


zCommander

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1 hour ago, tmandoug1 said:

This seems to be a strange comment based on our oline performance last year. Not sure I agree with this.

I can see it more and more, but I still doubt it because it has to be a LT and it just seems they will miss out on top 4-5 OTs. 

 

Think there are a couple of other positions that could use the help now. This corner class can give you a potential shutdown CB1 at 16.

 

Day 2 can always get you a starter for the IOL. Fair to argue corner will too, but more likely OL.

 

1 - CB

2 - MLB

3 - C/G

 

Three starters. All three get time to phase-in to their starting spots. 

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5 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Wrights hand size issues worry me. I saw some info on Edge rushers with massive hands, and a surprising amount were good to great in the NFL. Seemed a bit better of an indicator than arm length for Edge rushers, but still had some busts mixed in as obviously no one stat can predict everything.

 

The same has to be true for OT's. Big hands must help with initial hand fighting right when the OT and the Edge meet.

 

Wrights were at 9 inches for the combine but came in closer to 8.5 inches at the senior bowl. If you flip that around and look at the Edge rushers with hand size around 8.5-9 range, not a single one panned out in the NFL. With some Day 1/2 busts in that mix as well.

 

There are some good OT's that had slightly bigger hands though. Terron Armstead, Christian Darrisaw, and Taylor Lewan sit at 9.25 inches. This year's Anton Harrison also has that hand size. So maybe hand size for OT's don't matter as much as arm length does.

 

Wonder if his hand size is the reason he doesn't hold his blocks as well as the best OLs in the class?

 

I've seen a lot of hype for Darnell Wright during this pre-draft process, so I've gone back to watch the TN OL cutups a bunch of times, and I just don't think his film is very impressive.   I see him getting credit for going against Will Anderson and BJ Ojulari and Bryan Bresee, getting credit for not giving up sacks when I see him losing these match ups.  For example, on the 60 yard TD in the Bama game, that rep is Anderson walking Darnell Wright straight back into Hooker's chest, and Hooker standing tall and delivering a beautiful dime to Jalin Hyatt after he did the work to get behind the defense.  These are not wins for Darnell Wright.  It's not even what I would consider NFL-level coping against more talented match ups.  And I'm definitely not seeing the same level of stress free pass pro reps like I am with Anton Harrison, or flat out dominant ones like I am with Dawand Jones.

 

His film is pretty good in comparison to a weak class, but there just aren't enough kick ass NFL style reps it to get me excited about him.  I don't think he's special at all, and I also think his pass pro got covered up by a multitude of factors in that TN offense--Hooker's creativity and mobility, the absurd amount of RPO they ran, the absurd pace they played at ensuring he repped against a ton of gassed DLs who weren't lined up right.  The amount of jump setting vs vertical setting he did should be a red flag about the translation of what he was doing last season to the NFL.  He was jumping and lunging in the SB practices too, that's his playing style.  I'm sorry but you're just not going to be successful in NFL pass pro if you can't hold your block more than a second or two.  Those DEs will shuck you and send you sprawling forward as they go by you, and they will gear up on a direct path to the QB in an instant.  That kind of pass pro will get your QB hurt at this level.

 

I wouldn't mess with him.  And I don't think we need to either.  We should just take Harrison or Jones.

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2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Zierlein compares Bergeron to Joel Bitonio, and his talks with NFL people seem to conclude that his pass pro is too bad to stay at tackle, but his elite run blocking will make him a stud at guard.

 

I'm not sure tackle is going to be in his NFL future.  But I do love the value he represents at 47 for us specifically, because we need a LG.

 

I wonder if part of it is due to coaching. His OL coach the past couple years was a guy who was at San Diego State his whole career. If he truly is a hard worker who loves football, given he has the physical tools, what is stopping him from developing the pass pro?

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5 hours ago, tmandoug1 said:

This seems to be a strange comment based on our oline performance last year. Not sure I agree with this.

I just can’t see a #16 worthy OL being there when we pick.

 

We’ve brought in Wylie and Gates who Rivera will have penned in as starters. It’s all quiet with Roullier, smart money is on him being released I guess. Or retirement. But a pay cut may bring him back as starting C pushing Gates to starting G. Wylie RT and I think we stay as is at LT.

 

My guess would be Avila is a favourite of the team. But where would you take him ? Will he be long gone by #47. I can also see Steen being a round 3/4 target.

 

Realistically we need to trade back to make best value of this draft. 2 picks in the first 90+ isn’t enough, especially if one goes on OL.

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4 hours ago, method man said:

 

I wonder if part of it is due to coaching. His OL coach the past couple years was a guy who was at San Diego State his whole career. If he truly is a hard worker who loves football, given he has the physical tools, what is stopping him from developing the pass pro?

 

Been a long time since I watched Bergeron.  But not long ago I watched against one of the better pass rushers, forgetting whom, and Bergeron was on the other side and he held his own, commented about it on the thread at the time.

 

He has a strong pass protection grade by PFF and its higher by 10 points over his run blocking grade.  Not that they are the be all and end all.  But I get the perception he'd be better at run blocking in the pros because he can move in space well for a tackle and as a pass blocker he doesn't look powerful.  But IMO he could hold is own in pass protect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, RWJ said:

His hands are small but he played in the SEC at RT and LT and inside some too and held up well at all positions, so I don't think it's that big a deal.  That would be the only knock on him though.  Still like a trade down and 21-24 range and select him.  He's rising up draft boards we may have to make a decision at #16.  

 

I am higher on Wright than most here.  But not as high on him as the draft media.  So i am sort of playing it medium on him.  Really strong anchor and is good at mirroring and keeping the defender square as to their counter moves, etc.  I think a bit overrated as a run blocker.  My issue with him is tight hips which is evidenced with his shaky balance, if a defender starts slipping by him he at times basically wrestles him to the ground using his outside shoulder and he and the defender often end up on their butt -- that would often be a penalty in the NFL.  And you see him lose his balance on the move in run blocking, too.

 

He seems to be a bit of a pissy dude when the media challenges him on something, you can see that on twitter.  Has an ego.  Considered a smart dude, though. 

 

I wouldn't hate him at 16 but I'd rather trade down.  He's tackle #4 for me.  I have the same ranking as @Going Commando but I gather my drop off isn't as big as his versus Anton Harrison.  Anton who I've talked about on and off for eons here seems to be oddly less heralded than some of the other tackles by the draft media.  Harrison is only 20 (I believe) with much upside, smooth, and is a natural on the left side which IMO gives him more value.

 

I watched Darnell's game against Will Anderson, 3 times, IMO he played very well against him.  Yes you can get pushed in the pocket on occasion by a good pass rusher but IMHO its like playing CB against a great WR, it's not about getting beat one or twice, they are going to beat you once or twice but can you contain them for most of the game and he did so and it stood out to me and plenty of others. For example, Trent going up against Chase won almost every rep, but Chase had a few good reps agaiinst him  -- that IMO is a victory for Trent not Chase. 

 

But I am not in love with Wright as a player but I do like him, sometimes like him a lot.

 

I think the draft media is overhyped about him but I do think there is a shot he goes early like they expect because of his size-athletcism.  While I think he's not that twitchy in his hips and it effects his balance.  His combine was sick as far as his measurables and teams seem to bet on athleticism at that spot more and more.

 

I recall the debate about Okung versus Trent Williams at the time (not here but with the draft media) where some said Okung was the better bet because he was smoother in pass protection.  I recall ex-scout Gil Brandt criticizing the pick when it was made saying Okung would be the next Chris Samuels, Trent was more of a gamble.  But as Shanny explained, Trent could really move which was important to his zone scheme.

 

 

 

 

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The safety class is weird, Branch is a top level one but his "meh" combine likes drops him late first-eary 2nd.

 

There isn't a safety I'd clamor for in the 2nd round or early 3rd.  

 

But in the 4th-5th round range there are a like a zillion safeties who IMO can contribute that are in similar range.   It's like there is very little steak but a zillion burgers.

 

Antonio Johnson, Quan Martin, Ji'air Brown, Jordan Battle, Skinner, J. Robinson, Christopher Smith, Syndey Brown all good gets IMO.  Some might not make it there to the 4th-5th but I think most will. 

 

And I still haven't watched a bunch of players.

 

Heck even in the late rounds, Mapu, Marriweather, Hellams, Hickman, Daniel Scott, Brandon Hill.

 

So while I don't love this class for lacking upper echelon players.  There are a ton of IMO B minus level players with upside.

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7 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

I just ran this as a mock, and I'd really like to see something like this.

Capture1.JPG

Capture2.JPG

There's a thread now for the unrealistic mock drafts like this. I'd love to come away with 2 1rst rounders and 4 day two guys in this draft like this.  :ols:

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30 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The safety class is weird, Branch is a top level one but his "meh" combine likes drops him late first-eary 2nd.

 

There isn't a safety I'd clamor for in the 2nd round or early 3rd.  

 

But in the 4th-5th round range there are a like a zillion safeties who IMO can contribute that are in similar range.   It's like there is very little steak but a zillion burgers.

 

Antonio Johnson, Quan Martin, Ji'air Brown, Jordan Battle, Skinner, J. Robinson, Christopher Smith, Syndey Brown all good gets IMO.  Some might not make it there to the 4th-5th but I think most will. 

 

And I still haven't watched a bunch of players.

 

Heck even in the late rounds, Mapu, Marriweather, Hellams, Hickman, Daniel Scott, Brandon Hill.

 

So while I don't love this class for lacking upper echelon players.  There are a ton of IMO B minus level players with upside.

Yes very strange, a lot of oddities as to the strengths and weaknesses of this draft.

 

There are a number of guys that years past would be considered CB that now fall into the S class. If you put them back at CB the cupboard is really bare for safeties. 

 

I can see a few of these guys being selected in the third but yes, the 4th and 5th rounds should actually be solid for S. 

 

I have mentioned it before, I am enamored Branch and with the potential of Skinner in our D. A guy like Skinner could become a really fun moving piece. I doubt they draft either but love the thought of one of them

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Just now, DWinzit said:

 

I have mentioned it before, I am enamored Branch and with the potential of Skinner in our D. A guy like Skinner could become a really fun moving piece. I doubt they draft either but love the thought of one of them

I think Branch is a possibility. Also take an outside corner. 

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7 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I think Branch is a possibility. Also take an outside corner. 

I could only see it if he feel late in the first and after a trade back he was at the top of their board. It they did take him there I can't see them being able to take a CB until much later if all the OL and speedy weapons talk it true

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5 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

I just can’t see a #16 worthy OL being there when we pick.

 

We’ve brought in Wylie and Gates who Rivera will have penned in as starters. It’s all quiet with Roullier, smart money is on him being released I guess. Or retirement. But a pay cut may bring him back as starting C pushing Gates to starting G. Wylie RT and I think we stay as is at LT.

 

My guess would be Avila is a favourite of the team. But where would you take him ? Will he be long gone by #47. I can also see Steen being a round 3/4 target.

 

Realistically we need to trade back to make best value of this draft. 2 picks in the first 90+ isn’t enough, especially if one goes on OL.

I agree on trading back. I would like to see one of two things happen in the first.

 

1. Trade back and get extra picks and hope Harrison falls to us.

 

2. Get top 3 corner or P. Johnson, Skoronski miraculously falls to us.

 

I can dream can't I?

 

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1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

I could only see it if he feel late in the first and after a trade back he was at the top of their board. It they did take him there I can't see them being able to take a CB until much later if all the OL and speedy weapons talk it true

Those 5 picks on day 3 give us plenty of options. EB will definitely want to add a dynamic element to our offense. The good news is that have a a clear 1 and 2 at WR, and BRob at RB. The wildcards are EBs assessments on Samuel and Gibson for me. Edit - We’ve spoken to Ford-Wheaton for example. 4.38 40 time. Plus there are a ton of day 3 backs on offer. 
 

Personal prediction that EB likes Jalin Hyatt. Won’t go WR early though, will we ?

 

LB looks like a mid round pick. We’ll get a very good Edge and CB rounds 3-5 as well. 
 

Good options. 29 and 40 from the Saints would be tasty in a trade back. I don’t think we stay with the 8 picks we have right now.

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The safety class is weird, Branch is a top level one but his "meh" combine likes drops him late first-eary 2nd.

 

There isn't a safety I'd clamor for in the 2nd round or early 3rd.  

 

But in the 4th-5th round range there are a like a zillion safeties who IMO can contribute that are in similar range.   It's like there is very little steak but a zillion burgers.

 

Antonio Johnson, Quan Martin, Ji'air Brown, Jordan Battle, Skinner, J. Robinson, Christopher Smith, Syndey Brown all good gets IMO.  Some might not make it there to the 4th-5th but I think most will. 

 

And I still haven't watched a bunch of players.

 

Heck even in the late rounds, Mapu, Marriweather, Hellams, Hickman, Daniel Scott, Brandon Hill.

 

So while I don't love this class for lacking upper echelon players.  There are a ton of IMO B minus level players with upside.


Jason Taylor II.

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The safety class is weird, Branch is a top level one but his "meh" combine likes drops him late first-eary 2nd.

 

There isn't a safety I'd clamor for in the 2nd round or early 3rd.  

 

But in the 4th-5th round range there are a like a zillion safeties who IMO can contribute that are in similar range.   It's like there is very little steak but a zillion burgers.

 

Antonio Johnson, Quan Martin, Ji'air Brown, Jordan Battle, Skinner, J. Robinson, Christopher Smith, Syndey Brown all good gets IMO.  Some might not make it there to the 4th-5th but I think most will. 

 

And I still haven't watched a bunch of players.

 

Heck even in the late rounds, Mapu, Marriweather, Hellams, Hickman, Daniel Scott, Brandon Hill.

 

So while I don't love this class for lacking upper echelon players.  There are a ton of IMO B minus level players with upside.

The good news in that we seem to be rate both Forrest and Butler, plus Curl as the standout. Although if we don’t pay him I could see trouble this offseason. So along with Reaves, adding a mid to late rounder is enough. How many do we normally include in the final numbers at safety? 4 or 5. Plus, Branch would be great choice IMO, but nowhere near #16 as you say.

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I watched Darnell's game against Will Anderson, 3 times, IMO he played very well against him.  Yes you can get pushed in the pocket on occasion by a good pass rusher but IMHO its like playing CB against a great WR, it's not about getting beat one or twice, they are going to beat you once or twice but can you contain them for most of the game and he did so and it stood out to me and plenty of others. For example, Trent going up against Chase won almost every rep, but Chase had a few good reps agaiinst him  -- that IMO is a victory for Trent not Chase. 

 

I've watched it now too because of how hyped up that match up has been, and I'm just not seeing some banner performance from Wright.  I counted like 10 true pass pro reps where they faced each other in the first half, and on two of them they gave Darnell help and he got beat pretty bad on one of those.  Most of the other reps, Anderson is having to slow his rush and play force because TN ran RPO.  Most of the ones towards the end of the half, Saban is running prevent and having Anderson line up in a 4i and running max coverages.  Those are doomed rushes.  One rep Anderson didn't rush because his teammate jumped offsides and he saw the flag.  Another one Alabama didn't get lined up and Saban was trying to call a TO but TN snaps the ball so fast they couldn't get the call in.

 

TN kept Anderson from teeing off on Darnell by targeting him with a screen and RPO game, and by giving Darnell help when there was nothing fishy playside for Anderson to have to account for.

 

This is not the domination of Will Anderson that media types like Gil Brandt and Lance Reddick are selling.  I was expecting to see Darnell Wright just dominating Anderson one on one, and that was absolutely not what happened.  What I saw instead was a clever offensive system specifically (and successfully) game planning and calling to minimize a match up issue they were on the wrong end of.

 

I don't know about the hand size issue with him.  I'm skeptical of that being a problem because I've always thought hand size was an overblown measurement for football.  Arm Length is the difference maker for OLs anyway.  My issues with him really just stem from the fact I don't think his film is very impressive, and I think there are problems with translating what he did last year to the NFL.  Plain and simple, I think he falls off his blocks and gets shucked too fast too often.  I do like his reactive athleticism and ability to mirror, I just don't think he's a patient, locked in blocker who gives you consistent first round effort and rep quality.  And I do agree with you about there being some balance issues for him.  I think he's got kind of lazy feet and he lunges a lot and that's why he ends up off balance so much.  And I don't think he has elite power or length to cope with losses, so when he loses it looks really bad.

 

I do like his run blocking a lot though, and I think this is where he is much farther ahead and most of his dominant reps are as a run blocker.  He is an impactful point of attack run blocker that can clearly run, and he can reset the LoS on off tackle runs via that combo of speed and size.  And I think he played a lot tougher than Broderick Jones, so I think he is a safer bet than Broderick.

 

But I think he's a pretty big step down from Paris, Dawand, and Anton.  Those three are very close for me, and each are going to be in my top 16.  I'm going to end up having Darnell somewhere in the late 20s or early 30s probably, and probably put Broderick in the late 30s or early 40s.

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I've never seen a lack of consensus at a position like I'm seeing with OT this year. Heck some people even have Paris Johnson out of the top spot which seems crazy to me. 
 

Our best case scenario really is to trade down and take whoever is left of the crop and hope we got one that works out.

 

I'm still hoping a team like the Bills or Bengals moves up with us to select Bijan Robinson if he's available and gives us like a 2nd and 3rd or something.

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1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I've never seen a lack of consensus at a position like I'm seeing with OT this year. Heck some people even have Paris Johnson out of the top spot which seems crazy to me. 
 

Our best case scenario really is to trade down and take whoever is left of the crop and hope we got one that works out.

 

I'm still hoping a team like the Bills or Bengals moves up with us to select Bijan Robinson if he's available and gives us like a 2nd and 3rd or something.

 

Reading the Bob McGinn reports.  And seeining Johnson pop into the late teens in some recent mocks if I recall maybe even in Kipers?  I am getting the vibe its not as far fetched as i once did that he might be there at 16.  Kiper-McShay talk in their podcast that their mocks especially towards the end are influenced some by what they hear from teams-scouts as to what they are thinking.

 

Should be interesting when McGinn's final reports from the scouts come out, am guessing later this week.  Because although some here clown on them every year and I personally don't always agree with them myself -- they give a window in how scouts from teams are thinking about these prospects and it doesn't always overlap the draft media.  McGinn has won multiple years the award of having the most accurate top 100 in the draft, including last year -- so in short the scouts takes >> draft media as to what actually happens on draft day.

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Just listened to Lombardi's podcast today and he had some really interesting nuggets...

 

-Houston is not going to take a QB unless Bryce Young is there.  Assuming Young is gone, they'll take Will Anderson.

-Zona is trying to trade down, but no one will likely move up.  They'll take best defender and it could be Carter.

- Indy likes Levis and could take him over Stroud.

-Seattle & Detroit will likely take edge.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

I've watched it now too because of how hyped up that match up has been, and I'm just not seeing some banner performance from Wright.  I counted like 10 true pass pro reps where they faced each other in the first half, and on two of them they gave Darnell help and he got beat pretty bad on one of those.  Most of the other reps, Anderson is having to slow his rush and play force because TN ran RPO.  Most of the ones towards the end of the half, Saban is running prevent and having Anderson line up in a 4i and running max coverages.  Those are doomed rushes.  One rep Anderson didn't rush because his teammate jumped offsides and he saw the flag.  Another one Alabama didn't get lined up and Saban was trying to call a TO but TN snaps the ball so fast they couldn't get the call in.

 

TN kept Anderson from teeing off on Darnell by targeting him with a screen and RPO game, and by giving Darnell help when there was nothing fishy playside for Anderson to have to account for.

 

This is not the domination of Will Anderson that media types like Gil Brandt and Lance Reddick are selling.  I was expecting to see Darnell Wright just dominating Anderson one on one, and that was absolutely not what happened.  What I saw instead was a clever offensive system specifically (and successfully) game planning and calling to minimize a match up issue they were on the wrong end of.

 

I don't know about the hand size issue with him.  I'm skeptical of that being a problem because I've always thought hand size was an overblown measurement for football.  Arm Length is the difference maker for OLs anyway.  My issues with him really just stem from the fact I don't think his film is very impressive, and I think there are problems with translating what he did last year to the NFL.  Plain and simple, I think he falls off his blocks and gets shucked too fast too often.  I do like his reactive athleticism and ability to mirror, I just don't think he's a patient, locked in blocker who gives you consistent first round effort and rep quality.  And I do agree with you about there being some balance issues for him.  I think he's got kind of lazy feet and he lunges a lot and that's why he ends up off balance so much.  And I don't think he has elite power or length to cope with losses, so when he loses it looks really bad.

 

I do like his run blocking a lot though, and I think this is where he is much farther ahead and most of his dominant reps are as a run blocker.  He is an impactful point of attack run blocker that can clearly run, and he can reset the LoS on off tackle runs via that combo of speed and size.  And I think he played a lot tougher than Broderick Jones, so I think he is a safer bet than Broderick.

 

But I think he's a pretty big step down from Paris, Dawand, and Anton.  Those three are very close for me, and each are going to be in my top 16.  I'm going to end up having Darnell somewhere in the late 20s or early 30s probably, and probably put Broderick in the late 30s or early 40s.

 

My internet sucks today, working off a hotspot waiting for it to get fixed.  So my you tube is slow so I don't have the patience to go through a full game right now.

 

But rewatched the first quarter and change.  I see what you mean by the RPOs, on some plays the fakes froze Anderson.  But I also saw at least 5 true pass sets where he handled Anderson really well one on one.  Pushed him around a little in the run game.  A couple of plays Anderson stunted away from him.

 

Makes me understand PFF's metric of true pass set a little bit better, where they try to screen out some noise on pass protect measures (not sure if they do screen out RPOs) that favor the O lineman.

 

I've heard the PFF guys say in interviews that their metrics tend to hold up for the O line the best for all positions -- college to the pros.  Wright has their 2nd highest ranking in true pass set among the top tackles.   Not that PFF colors my views on players, they don't, but they watch all the games, I don't and if they back up what i see, it makes me feel that i am not crazy. :ols:

 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-true-pass-sets-and-their-importance-to-player-evaluation

At PFF, we are as prepared as anyone to study the trenches, with our play-by-play data going back to 2006 for the NFL and 2014 for FBS. Preliminary studies show that our grades and underlying data do a good job of projecting offensive linemen from the collegiate level to the pro level, which is good news for a league that has seen a downswing in offensive line play for the better part of the last decade.

However, context matters, and as we approach draft and free agency, it’s important to know where and when to look for insights when it comes to evaluating linemen. In pass protection, there are a number of things that can skew data. Does an offense throw an outsized number of quick passes or screens (think Andre Dillard from Washington State)? Did the player you’re scouting play in a conference that rushes fewer players than the national average (think Big 12)?

Today, we want to look at what constitutes a “true pass set” — a set of play features for which evaluation is the most stable and predictive. While a robust analysis (and one we use in our internal models for projecting pass protectors from college to pro) would let a model sort out the thresholds and the weighting of each feature, there is some value in having quick and dirty heuristics by which to go. We build a set of these here. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Just listened to Lombardi's podcast today and he had some really interesting nuggets...

 

-Houston is not going to take a QB unless Bryce Young is there.  Assuming Young is gone, they'll take Will Anderson.

-Zona is trying to trade down, but no one will likely move up.  They'll take best defender and it could be Carter.

- Indy likes Levis and could take him over Stroud.

-Seattle & Detroit will likely take edge.

 

 

 

 

Mcshay who took some heat months ago for hearing Carter has character concerns but was validated soon after on that -- said in a recent podcast that he's heard Carter isn't a hard worker and doesn't practice hard.

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