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2021 Playoff Tracker Thread

kleese

By kleese
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kleese

kleese

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Your viewing guide for Week 14

 

The Obvious: 

 

Steelers at Vikings: Nothing helped us more last week than Detroit beating Minnesota. We are going to own a tie-breaker with the Vikings so we essentially have a two game lead on them now. We do need them to lose one more to ensure they can’t get to 10 wins. Playing an AFC team there is no downside for us here. Go Steelers. 
 

Saints at Jets: I’m still wary of the Saints. They’ve looked awful lately, but they are the only team that beats us in a head to head tie-breaker, so it would be preferable for them to lose at least two more. Their schedule isn’t terribly difficult— only a game at Tampa looms that I’d describe as tough. I fully expect them to win this game on Sunday, but a loss would probably be the death knell for them— so go Jets. 
 

49ers at Bengals: Thank you very much Seahawks last week… Niners were hot and that loss hopefully cooled them off. This is a 50/50 game to me— Vegas agrees as it’s Bengals -1. We don’t “need” the Niners to falter as there are two spots available for the taking, but this is still an obvious rooting position for us. Go Bengals. 
 

The Less Obvious: 

 

Falcons at Panthers: Flip a coin I guess. Both teams just one game behind us and we hold the tie-breaker with either of them. I suppose you’d “root” here for whoever you see as LESS of a threat to get super hot down the stretch. Also understand that in some crazy scenarios, having them tied with us could HELP us in multi-team tie-breakers. Both of these teams also have a game remaining vs Saints. So pick whoever you want here and then I’d say the loser sort of becomes our friend the rest of the way while we’d probably prefer to see the winner lose. Both teams have pretty tough remaining schedule. 
 

Giants at Chargers: Certainly not fearing a Giants run here, but we could probably use their help a bit with Cowboys and Eagles down the stretch, so we might as well root for them to lose here and avoid any conflicts moving forward. 
 

Rams at Cardinals: In this exercise we’ve been conceding one of the wild cards to the second place team in West, trending to the Rams. Well, if the Rams lose in Arizona Monday Night they fall to 7-5, which would suddenly put them in some danger— or at least put them in the mix for with the other WC teams. So assuming we are 100% conceding that we aren’t catching the Cards, then you root for Arizona here in sort of “why not” position. 
 

The “Now, You’re Really Stretching: 

 

Seahawks at Texans: Seattle is two games behind and we own the tie-breaker. Not really a threat. They also don’t play any of our competing teams the rest of the way so they are sort of out of sight out of mind for us. But if you want to get technical, root for Houston. 
 

Bills at Bucs: Hear me out on this one. We aren’t catching Tampa in most any scenario, that’s not what this is about. But the Bucs do play the Saints next week, they also have two remaining with Panthers. I’d prefer them to be motivated for those games— especially next week against NOLA. If the Bills win this one, I think Tampa for sure stays fully focused on Saints and Panthers in subsequent weeks. So go Bills, kinda. 
 

Bears at Packers: Bears similar to Seahawks— not a real threat. But technical no harm in them losing here— they also play the Vikings twice over final four, so they will become our allies soon. 
 

 

 


 


 

 

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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31 minutes ago, kleese said:

Your viewing guide for Week 14

 

The Obvious: 

 

 

The Less Obvious:
 

Giants at Chargers: Certainly not fearing a Giants run here, but we could probably use their help a bit with Cowboys and Eagles down the stretch, so we might as well root for them to lose here and avoid any conflicts moving forward. 
 

Rams at Cardinals: In this exercise we’ve been conceding one of the wild cards to the second place team in West, trending to the Rams. Well, if the Rams lose in Arizona Monday Night they fall to 7-5, which would suddenly put them in some danger— or at least put them in the mix for with the other WC teams. So assuming we are 100% conceding that we aren’t catching the Cards, then you root for Arizona here in sort of “why not” position. 
 

The “Now, You’re Really Stretching:

 

Bears at Packers: Bears similar to Seahawks— not a real threat. But technical no harm in them losing here— they also play the Vikings twice over final four, so they will become our allies soon. 
 

 

 

Good stuff there (you practically ran the table last weekend lol)...a few things, though:

 

1) WFT beating Dallas is the most obvious...but not listed under "The Obvious" lol...trying to avoid bad mojo?

 

2) I'm not sure why Giants at Chargers is considered less obvious. Seems incredibly obvious, especially considering they're playing an AFC team.

 

3) Love--LOVE--the idea of the Rams losing and falling to 8-5 (not 7-5...typo police!)...have you done any scenarios in terms of which seed would be the most advantageous for WFT in terms of who they would play should they make the playoffs?

 

4) Is rooting for the Packers to beat the Bears really a "Now. You're Really Stretching" pick?

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Franklin60

Franklin60

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7 hours ago, kleese said:

Bears at Packers: Bears similar to Seahawks— not a real threat. But technical no harm in them losing here— they also play the Vikings twice over final four, so they will become our allies soon. 

Since the Giants own the Bears first round pick next year, I sure as heck don't want them to get another high pick. So I'll be rooting for the Bears all the way. Green Bay losing doesn't really change things.

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Malapropismic Depository

Malapropismic Depository

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1 hour ago, Franklin60 said:

Since the Giants own the Bears first round pick next year, I sure as heck don't want them to get another high pick. So I'll be rooting for the Bears all the way. Green Bay losing doesn't really change things.

 

Giants having high picks doesn't really scare me.

They havn't seemed to do much with their drafts, even their high picks.

Except maybe for that one WR they drafted.

Their drafting ability looks a lot like the "old" success rate we used to have drafting on our team.

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kleese

kleese

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11 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

 

Good stuff there (you practically ran the table last weekend lol)...a few things, though:

 

1) WFT beating Dallas is the most obvious...but not listed under "The Obvious" lol...trying to avoid bad mojo?

 

2) I'm not sure why Giants at Chargers is considered less obvious. Seems incredibly obvious, especially considering they're playing an AFC team.

 

3) Love--LOVE--the idea of the Rams losing and falling to 8-5 (not 7-5...typo police!)...have you done any scenarios in terms of which seed would be the most advantageous for WFT in terms of who they would play should they make the playoffs?

 

4) Is rooting for the Packers to beat the Bears really a "Now. You're Really Stretching" pick?


1. Let’s just avoid the TRULY obvious; no need to risk any mushes. 
 

2. This answers #4 as well, but I am really not worried about the Giants, Seahawks, or Bears— the three teams that are TWO games behind us who we also own tie-breakers with. Now, sure, I’d prefer they go ahead and lose, but currently not on my radar— and I guess a small part of me would like for the Giants to maybe get to 7 wins to hurt their draft position. 
 

3. Rams not currently on my radar either, but that would change if we win Sunday and they lose Monday. If you give us either the 6/7 seed based on finishing 9-8 and behind the Rams, it is most likely we’d be playing the Packers, Bucs, or Cards. Dallas could also factor if they finish hot and/or one of the other division leaders stumbles. Of the possibilities, the one I think is the most clear choice in terms of being advantageous is Arizona. Kyler is really good and dangerous, but he’s also not playoff tested— I’d certainly take my chances in that spot with him over Rodgers or Brady. Same goes with Kingsbury and the entire Cards team— they are having a great season and earning respect— but I think a lot of people (myself included) will be a touch skeptical until we see what they do in January. So if you told me right now we’d be a WC and I could pick our opponent, I’d pick the Cards. 

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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I saw sometging on NFL.com that gave the 49ers something like a 65% chance of making the playoffs, and gave the WFT a 50% chance of making the playoffs--even though WFT holds the tiebreaker (conference record) against the 49ers and San Francisco arguably has the tougher remaining schedule--Bengals, Titans, and Rams are 3 of their 5 remaining games.

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Chris 44

Chris 44

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21 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

Giants having high picks doesn't really scare me.

They havn't seemed to do much with their drafts, even their high picks.

Except maybe for that one WR they drafted.

Their drafting ability looks a lot like the "old" success rate we used to have drafting on our team.

Unless Gettleman is gone at the end of the year and they get someone with some sense in there.

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JSSkinz

JSSkinz

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Probably the biggest game of the year coming up at Philly, we lose that game and we have to win 3 straight or we're probably out.

 

I would be seriously impressed with the coaching if we finish with 9 wins.  We lack elite talent, we don't have a true NFL caliber QB and the injuries won't stop, its really amazing we are still in it.

 

Its time for Scott to unleash Curtis Samuel, there's 4 games left and pitch count wont mean much if we keep losing so now is the time for him to step up and pick up the slack for Terry.

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method man

method man

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2 hours ago, JSSkinz said:

Probably the biggest game of the year coming up at Philly, we lose that game and we have to win 3 straight or we're probably out.

 

I would be seriously impressed with the coaching if we finish with 9 wins.  We lack elite talent, we don't have a true NFL caliber QB and the injuries won't stop, its really amazing we are still in it.

 

Its time for Scott to unleash Curtis Samuel, there's 4 games left and pitch count wont mean much if we keep losing so now is the time for him to step up and pick up the slack for Terry.


I have no faith in Samuel. Was never excited about signing him. Always thought he was an overhyped gadget player

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Cooleyfan1993

Cooleyfan1993

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11 hours ago, SAli457180 said:

Losing today put the division out of the reach, cost hi the 6 seed, and even  a shot at the 5 seed as well with the Rams facing the Cardinals tomorrow night

Actually, funny thing is, Dallas could still lose the division. Now, i dont expect it to actually happen, cause the giants would actually need to beat them next week, then we’d need to beat Dallas in the rematch on SNF, then the cardinals would need to beat Dallas (that’s the only likely thing to happen), all while we beat Philly twice (that could happen) and again, beat Dallas in the rematch. 
 

again, i don’t expect Dallas to lose the division now, after yesterday’s game, but as low as the possibility may be, there’s still a possibility. 

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TD_washingtonredskins

TD_washingtonredskins

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1 minute ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Actually, funny thing is, Dallas could still lose the division. Now, i dont expect it to actually happen, cause the giants would actually need to beat them next week, then we’d need to beat Dallas in the rematch on SNF, then the cardinals would need to beat Dallas (that’s the only likely thing to happen), all while we beat Philly twice (that could happen) and again, beat Dallas in the rematch. 

Sure, they haven't clinched the division yet. But having a 3-game lead with 4 games to play is nice and comfy. 

 

The Skins should be much more worried about the other 6-7 teams than Dallas should be worried about anyone behind them hahahahah

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Cooleyfan1993

Cooleyfan1993

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11 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Sure, they haven't clinched the division yet. But having a 3-game lead with 4 games to play is nice and comfy. 

 

The Skins should be much more worried about the other 6-7 teams than Dallas should be worried about anyone behind them hahahahah

Yeah, like i said, there’s still a possibility, but I don’t expect them to lose the division now after yesterday. Just pointing out how they could lose it, IF we get lucky in two weeks and the giants somehow turn into world beaters for a week 😂 

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kleese

kleese

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No doubt, any division hopes sailed away yesterday... I didn't think it was very realistic anyway, but that outcome will put it to bed. I guess there's a chance it could be revived if Dallas lost in the Meadowlands this week because either us or Philly will improve to 7-7, but even then it would probably be a stretch. 

 

So as others have mentioned, we now have six teams essentially fighting for two spots: 

 

49ers

WFT

Eagles

Falcons 

Vikings 

Saints 

 

You can then throw in the two 5-8 teams if you want (Panthers, Seahawks) but right now I think it's fair to focus on the six. I think you can officially bury the 4-9 Giants and Bears. 

 

49ers really helped themselves this week; huge road win in Cincy. They do have two tough road games remaining (Titans/Rams) but their home games are soft (Falcons, Texans). 2-2 will almost certainly get them in-- with that schedule, 1-3 or 0-4 seems highly unlikely. So for all realistic purposes, I think we are looking at 5 teams for one spot. 

 

If we go 3-1, we're in. Should be a done deal. Only way that wouldn't happen is if Minny, NOLA, or Atlanta finished 4-0. Highly unlikely given schedules. So if we win 2/3 vs. Philly/Dallas then we are likely setting ourselves up for a "win and in" game week 18 vs Giants. 

 

What about getting in at 8-9? Well, that's way more complicated, but I still think those odds are somewhere around 50/50-- if BOTH of our wins were against Philly, then odds increase. 

 

Let's say we beat Philly twice and lose to the Boys and Giants-- we'd finish ahead of Philly for sure and we'd win tie-breakers with everyone else unless it's JUST us vs. NOLA. So I'd go as far as to say, we WILL get in at 8-9 if we sweep Philly. If we split with Philly and lose to either Dallas or Giants? Well, I still think we'd have an OK shot, but the one thing we would need FOR SURE is for Philly to either lose to the Giants or Cowboys in their other games. So one thing to potentially monitor is Dallas' motivation as we approach week 18-- could wind up being better for us if they have incentive to win that game the last week of season. Again, if we take care of Philly twice, it's moot. 

 

Needless to say, this week is huge. 

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steve09ru

steve09ru

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I wouldn't say that this isn't a playoff roster.  We've been in every games with the exception of the Bills game in the 2nd half.  The way our defense has been playing, it's likely a few of those earlier losses could have swung our way.  We're not a Super Bowl caliber roster, I will give you that but definitely think we have the pieces to be a 'playoff roster'

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