The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, RWJ said:

Really.  How are you, Battered Fan?

Further battered, if clown shoes finds a way to win a game.

[Est.1974]

Starting Brissett when 4-11 is nothing but a single minded, self motivated decision, I’ll be both livid and disgusted.

[skinsfan66]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Philly went for Wentz, gave up major draft capital.  The #2 pick in the draft.  SF traded the moon for Lance.  Both considered two of the smarter FO's in the league.  But their philisophy is keep shooting all over the draft for the QB, including high until you get that guy.

 

lol, I don't know why I am bothering to debate this with you.  I got zero fear that the next FO will see things your way.  The odds are great you will be lamenting this off season if you are stuck on this point.   I feel like I am already defending the next regime before they arrive.  But will see.  I think your best shot of no QB is if they fall in love with Marvin Harrison Jr.

 

 

He wasn't.  Late first round.  But it doesn't take away from the point that he's a great QB.

 

Ravens lucked out on him.  I doubt a talent like that falls that way again.   Kyler Murray who can also run went #1.  I think Lamar helped set a template.  Can you run like that and survive in the league?  RG3 made the case no.  Lamar made the case, yes.

 Philly made a mistake giving up Capital they should have not. And went the other route to get a QB in the 2nd. round. I know Lamar and Baltimore went a different route instead of going the way it's written in stone, (you have to take the top pick no. 3 as a QB). Harrison might be the better pick or a trade down or QB any were in the draft. If they build like Baltimore it's not a slam dunk to take the QB at pick3.  Was it metrics or luck that Lamar was drafted or just great personnel? Kyler Murray is more reason to not take a QB that high on the flip side. Looks like he might have been a better baseball player.  You seem to have gotten to the QB only mind set now at pick3, maybe your right but does it make the team better? I am okay with anything thing that works out. You can get a QB late first early 2nd. Just as well as a top3/4 pick. Lamar/ Hurts or Murray/ Fields.  They say the new owners want to model after the Ravens that would increase my odds if they do so I will stick with it to the end. It's okay to have a different approach to the draft. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by skinsfan66

[Llevron]

12 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Starting Brissett when 4-11 is nothing but a single minded, self motivated decision, I’ll be both livid and disgusted.

 

Well he is going to do it because its the wrong decision. Prepare yourself for it. I don't even think he can help himself at this point. 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Starting Brissett when 4-11 is nothing but a single minded, self motivated decision, I’ll be both livid and disgusted.

 

Be braced for it.

 

Like I said it doubles down on the sadness of this regime.  Benching the starting QB for some other at the end of the season and shooting for a meaningless late season win to hurt their draft position.

 

That win against Dallas last year from what I recall took them out of the range of the left tackles who went before their pick.

 

An extra win the season before took them out of the Drake London range who I heard they love.

 

Season before that they wanted to trade up for Justin Fields but considering where they were drafting the price was too high to trade up.

 

But Ron does Ron.  I understand he doesn't even benefit this time from losing.  And i get the you play to win idea.  But benching your young QB for a journeyman QB, talking up how proud you are for the team not quitting against the mighty Jets, scoffing at the fans for rooting for loses and killing for a meaningless win to end the season to justify whatever -- feels like a perfect sad fitting to the Ron era.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Be braced for it.

 

Like I said it doubles down on the sadness of this regime.  Benching the starting QB for some other at the end of the season and shooting for a meaningless late season win to hurt their draft position.

 

That win against Dallas last year from what I recall took them out of the range of the left tackles who went before their pick.

 

An extra win the season before took them out of the Drake London range who I heard they love.

 

Season before that they wanted to trade up for Justin Fields but considering where they were drafting the price was too high to trade up.

 

But Ron does Ron.  I understand he doesn't even benefit this time from losing.  And i get the you play to win idea.  But benching your young QB for a journeyman QB, talking up how proud you are for the team not quitting against the mighty Jets, scoffing at the fans for rooting for loses and killing for a meaningless win to end the season to justify whatever -- feels like a perfect sad fitting to the Ron era.

I thought Brissett would start last week, SIP.  I wouldn't be stunned at all if Rivera announces Howell as the starter.  I expect Brissett though. 

[skinsfan66]

19 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Starting Brissett when 4-11 is nothing but a single minded, self motivated decision, I’ll be both livid and disgusted.

It would be a mistake not starting him, he needs to be evaluated too, some in here think he can start for a lot of teams, not me. If he can he just increases his value to the team. If wins the remaining 2 games it's not the end of the world. 

[Skinsinparadise]

31 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

 Philly made a mistake giving up Capital they should have not. And went the other route to get a QB in the 2nd. round. I know Lamar and Baltimore went a different route instead of going the way it's written in stone, (you have to take the top pick no. 3 as a QB). Harrison might be the better pick or a trade down or QB any were in the draft. If they build like Baltimore it's not a slam dunk to take the QB at pick3.  Was it metrics or luck that Lamar was drafted or just great personnel? Kyler Murray is more reason to not take a QB that high on the flip side. Looks like he might have been a better baseball player.  You seem to have gotten to the QB only mind set now at pick3, maybe your right but does it make the team better? I am okay with anything thing that works out. You can get a QB late first early 2nd. Just as well as a top3/4 pick. Lamar/ Hurts or Murray/ Fields.  They say the new owners want to model after the Ravens that would increase my odds if they do so I will stick with it to the end. It's okay to have a different approach to the draft. 

 

It's very simple. The odds of success for any position is greater the higher you take them.  The QB spot specifically is more checkered because there are so many busts at that spot compared to others.  But the odds are still greater the earlier you take them.

 

If you live with banking on outliers than your chances are much slimmer for success.  And that's a key part of analytics.  That is betting on the odds.   I can do that for any spot as to arguing for outlier examples.  For example, why even bother using a draft pick on LB considering London Fletcher, A. Pierce, Ivan Pace went undrafted so using a pick for a LB is for suckers.

 

But still... 

 

It's about the specfic players of course.  You don't evaluate Drake Maye for example by saying look forget the tape, we love the dude or hate the dude, but that's not important, the key is who else was taken #2 in the past and lets make a decisiom about him based on that.   Or lets take Bo Nix at the end of the first round because Lamar Jackson was taken at the end of the first -- maybe Bo is Lamar?

 

I don't mind people saying no Maye, no Daniels.  Take a QB later.  But if so sell me as to which player and why?  The stats don't back up taking the QB later.  So there is no argument that's winnable on that front as to lets depend on the numbers.  But if someone wants to convince me that for example Jordan Travis is a better bet in the 6th round than Daniels in the first.  Cool.  But that's an apples to apples comparison.  Sell the why in the comparison in that case.

 

If the odds are this regime loves one of the top QBs at their spot in the first, the odds are almost zero that they will punt on the spot for something else.  Now if they don't love one of the guys, that's a different story.  But clearly the specific evaluation matters.  

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/04/18/colts-what-are-the-odds-colts-get-starting-qb-in-the-2023-nfl-draft/70123423007/

 

 Since 1999, 220 quarterbacks have been picked 33rd (when the current second-round starts) or later and I count five as successful: Brady, Kirk Cousins, Hurts, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson. But let's add Purdy to that list. That means there's a 2.7% chance a team will find a star quarterback outside the current first round.

That's one, on average, every four years. In those four years, 37 quarterbacks will be selected with one emerging as a successful NFL quarterback.

Of those 220 drafted quarterbacks, 68 never threw a pass in the NFL. That's 28.6%. A team is 100 times more likely to take a quarterback after the first round who never throws a pass in the NFL than it is to get a successful quarterback.

 

22 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I thought Brissett would start last week, SIP.  I wouldn't be stunned at all if Rivera announces Howell as the starter.  I expect Brissett though. 

 

I'd be stunned.  Why the build up for doubling down on the status quo?

Edited December 27, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd be stunned.  Why the build up for doubling down on the status quo?

I'm with you but RR has regressed on all counts.  Again, I thought he would make the transition to JB and he didn't.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I dont care where you stand on who to draft - QB, LT, whatever.  The asset is the asset, no matter what you do with it.  The asset appreciates with losses and severely depreciates with wins.

 

There is value to Ron, likely some of the players incentives, etc. but there is nothing good that can come from a win for us moving forward.

[skinsfan66]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's very simple. The odds of success for any position is greater the higher you take them.  The QB spot specifically is more checkered because there are so many busts at that spot compared to others.  But the odds are still greater the earlier you take them.

 

If you live with banking on outliers than your chances are much slimmer for success.  And that's a key part of analytics.  That is betting on the odds.   I can do that for any spot as to arguing for outlier examples.  For example, why even bother using a draft pick on LB considering London Fletcher, A. Pierce, Ivan Pace went undrafted so using a pick for a LB is for suckers.

 

But still... 

 

It's about the specfic players of course.  You don't evaluate Drake Maye for example as saying look forget the tape, we love the dude or hate the dude, but that's not important, the key is who else was taken #2 in the past and make a decisiom about him based on that.   Or take Bo Nix at the end of the first round because Lamar Jackson was taken at the end of the first -- maybe Bo is Lamar?

 

I don't mind people saying no Maye, No Daniels.  Take a QB later.  But sell me as to which player and why?  The stats don't back up taking the QB later.  So there is no argument that's winnable on that front.  But if someone wants to convince me that for example Jordan Travis is better bet in the 6th round than Daniels in the first.  Cool.  But that's an apples to apples comparison.  Sell the why in the comparison in that case.

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/04/18/colts-what-are-the-odds-colts-get-starting-qb-in-the-2023-nfl-draft/70123423007/

 

 Since 1999, 220 quarterbacks have been picked 33rd (when the current second-round starts) or later and I count five as successful: Brady, Kirk Cousins, Hurts, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson. But let's add Purdy to that list. That means there's a 2.7% chance a team will find a star quarterback outside the current first round.

That's one, on average, every four years. In those four years, 37 quarterbacks will be selected with one emerging as a successful NFL quarterback.

Of those 220 drafted quarterbacks, 68 never threw a pass in the NFL. That's 28.6%. A team is 100 times more likely to take a quarterback after the first round who never throws a pass in the NFL than it is to get a successful quarterback.

 

 

I'd be stunned.  Why the build up for doubling down on the status quo?

It's all about making the team better with all options on the table for me and many ways to do it. There is no single way, we can go on and on, results are all that matter and it shows you can do it many ways.  Not saying do not draft a QB at 3/4 if they chose to go that way and it's makes the team better or If they trade down, Pick Harrison?. I want everything taken into account.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Llevron]

Struggling to remember a coach who was just a worse leader overall than (then?) Ron. Though he does have the added issue of having possibly the worst GM we have ever had running the personnel side too. What a disappointment this man has been. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

This makes me massively nervous about screwing everything up and getting a win.  

 

I don't think Brissett can beat the 49ers.  Especially since they're really going to need the win for the #1 pick to be in play. The Eagles, Lions and 49ers are all 11-4.  However the 49ers have a much better division and conference record so they are in the driver seat.  But they have to win next week to keep it that way.

 

Dallas is the question mark.  I don't think they're nearly as good as their record.  And McCarthy is a supreme boob.  It's extremely possible they no-show for that game.

 

We need Fromm in week 18.

 

 

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It was expected and I'm glad he named JB the starter.  Most are not but I am.  We all will differ in our opinions.  One thing we can all agree on is we will be happy when this season is over with and HOPEFULLY again H.O.G. brings in a legit GM and lets him select his own HC.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Only two things can happen when you take the type of beating Sam did.

 

Physical injury or mental injury.  Sadly, physical is likely easier to recover from. 
 

If they beat a Cowboys team that could care less and screw our draft position, yes @RWJ, I stand by my belief that he deserves to be poorly treated by the poor fans he mistreated for 4 years.

Edited December 27, 2023 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[Rufus T Firefly]

I still think there is some value in letting Howell sit for a week, get his head together and then starting the finale. If that is the plan, I am fine with it 

 

But if he wants to start Brissett against Dallas, then I literally think Harris should fire him before the game. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Nothing Commies fans love more than a quarterback controversy.  We've been living in one for most of the past 35 years, why stop now?

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, Rufus T Firefly said:

I still think there is some value in letting Howell sit for a week, get his head together and then starting the finale. If that is the plan, I am fine with it 

 

But if he wants to start Brissett against Dallas, then I literally think Harris should fire him before the game. 

That sounds great and all, but I don’t think that’s in the cards at all.  Ron isn’t thinking about anyone but Ron.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Just now, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

That sounds great and all, but I don’t think that’s in the cards at all.  Ron isn’t thinking about anyone but Ron.

I don't disagree, just saying I will reserve my anger until he officially does the wrong thing. I don't think he has yet (specifically int his situation, I mean).

[Llevron]

I almost feel like it would be negligent to let him continue coaching. Like fire him today and be done with it. 

 

But then -- you come off looking like the over involved owner. 

[Panninho]

This move makes zero sense, zero. It is in no way a move for the team, it is 100% a move for Ron. There is nothing for this team to gain from these two games with Brissett. He ain't the QB going forward, so what are we doing? We don't learn anything. I like Brissett, he is a good guy. So that is nothing against him. But Brissett is gone after this year, Howell is likely here. Whether as a starter or as a backup. We are out of the playoff race. Makes no sense.

[zCommander]

God I hate Ron even more now! 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by zCommander

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'm totally fine sitting Sam.  He's seeing ghosts. It's not good for him to play right now.

 

But I'd go straight to Fromm.  Brissett playing does nothing for the long term "growth and development" of the team.  

 

Eugene Shen and Josh Harris should have blocked this.