The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Llevron]

7 minutes ago, bh32 said:

JD has also played 55 games in college which is a lot compared to Lamar Jackson's 38

The experience is a benefit not a detriment. It’s good he has so many snaps. It’s why he had a chance to fix his footwork before the NFL. He would have no future at all in the NFL if he couldn’t be an above average passer coming in. He would not last a season with his legs alone 

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, kingdaddy said:

Daniels is Randall Cunningham, Maye is Ben Roethlisberger for arguments sake.....compare their career injuries. Ben got beaten up as any QB ever, possibly because of his size and immobility. Guys like Daniels are athletes and athletes adjust, especially with good coaching. Just saying that bigger doesn't necessarily mean healthier in the NFL. 

Roethlisberger didn't really get beaten up until the end of his career. He was also a much better QB than Cunningham. Not sure why all of a sudden we're talking like Randall freaking Cunningham is some god's gift to QB-ing. 

[mistertim]

Just now, bh32 said:

Ain't no college defense on par with a NFL defense not even Alabama

 

Yeah that's something that the whole "omg SEC defenses" thing misses. Even on good SEC defenses (or good defenses in general), there are probably only a couple of guys on that roster who will make it in the NFL. The NFL is a completely different beast.

 

In the NFL almost every defender is likely on par with the best player on a college defense. So even going against SEC defenses, you're facing lots of guys who will be bartenders or something a year from now.

 

IMO that's one of the reasons that having two elite studs like Nabers and Thomas on the same team is such a big deal. You can only stick your best DB on one of them. Which means at least one of those guys is going to smoke his defender.

[bh32]

1 minute ago, kingdaddy said:

Daniels is Randall Cunningham, Maye is Ben Roethlisberger for arguments sake.....compare their career injuries. Ben got beaten up as any QB ever, possibly because of his size and immobility. Guys like Daniels are athletes and athletes adjust, especially with good coaching. Just saying that bigger doesn't necessarily mean healthier in the NFL. 

Big difference between the two..When RC played, players were a lot lighter than they are now

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah that's something that the whole "omg SEC defenses" thing misses. Even on good SEC defenses (or good defenses in general), there are probably only a couple of guys on that roster who will make it in the NFL. The NFL is a completely different beast.

 

In the NFL almost every defender is likely on par with the best player on a college defense. So even going against SEC defenses, you're facing lots of guys who will be bartenders or something a year from now.

 

IMO that's one of the reasons that having two elite studs like Nabers and Thomas on the same team is such a big deal. You can only stick your best DB on one of them. Which means at least one of those guys is going to smoke his defender.

SEC also had a down year, especially on defense.

 

Also, didn't Daniels get injured in the Alabama game? So the one game that comes closest to NFL defenders and...he got hurt. Kinda proves the point.

[bh32]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah that's something that the whole "omg SEC defenses" thing misses. Even on good SEC defenses (or good defenses in general), there are probably only a couple of guys on that roster who will make it in the NFL. The NFL is a completely different beast.

 

In the NFL almost every defender is likely on par with the best player on a college defense. So even going against SEC defenses, you're facing lots of guys who will be bartenders or something a year from now.

 

IMO that's one of the reasons that having two elite studs like Nabers and Thomas on the same team is such a big deal. You can only stick your best DB on one of them. Which means at least one of those guys is going to smoke his defender.

Not only that,the amount of time NFL players spend watching film and practicing compare to College players is astronomical.

[Llevron]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah that's something that the whole "omg SEC defenses" thing misses. Even on good SEC defenses (or good defenses in general), there are probably only a couple of guys on that roster who will make it in the NFL. The NFL is a completely different beast.

 

In the NFL almost every defender is likely on par with the best player on a college defense. So even going against SEC defenses, you're facing lots of guys who will be bartenders or something a year from now.

 

IMO that's one of the reasons that having two elite studs like Nabers and Thomas on the same team is such a big deal. You can only stick your best DB on one of them. Which means at least one of those guys is going to smoke his defender.

The whole SEC defense thing is about the size and speed of the defenders AND the coverages they run. Less about individual talent and more about what the team is actually doing as a defense…..from my understanding. 
 

Who knows? I could be making it all up to confuse you since we are enemies now. 

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

The whole SEC defense thing is about the size and speed of the defenders AND the coverages they run. Less about individual talent and more about what the team is actually doing as a defense…..from my understanding. 
 

Who knows? I could be making it all up to confuse you since we are enemies now. 

 

That's only on Saturdays. Tomorrow we'll be good again.

 

Anyway, it's a fair point about the defenses being more complicated. However, at the end of the day, your scheme can only get you so far unless you have the horses to run it.

 

If you're running a cover 2 and you don't have the CBs with the skills to stick to their guys in a certain area, it won' matter how complicated your scheme is. They're gonna get beaten.

Edited April 21 by mistertim

[kingdaddy]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Roethlisberger didn't really get beaten up until the end of his career. He was also a much better QB than Cunningham. Not sure why all of a sudden we're talking like Randall freaking Cunningham is some god's gift to QB-ing. 

We're not, those are your words, not mine, and Ben got beaten up throughout his career, go check out his injury chart, it's online. You missed my point which is that these thinner quicker guys have been that way their whole lives and have their own ways of surviving. OBTW, Randall Cunningham was a dynamic QB who led the highest scoring team in NFL history at one point (Minnesota, 1998). We'd be totally blessed to get a QB like him in this draft.  

[bh32]

JD can't even set line protections against college defense's, whats gonna happen in the NFL? He gonna look to the side line for help?lol

[SkinsFTW]

I don't know when being in the sec or competition in college mattered anyway. You could go back and see that many of the best QBs faced weaker competition.

 

Allen, Luck, Mahomes, Marino, Elway, Herbert. Lawrence played in the same conference as Maye, so did Watson. Many others as well

 

Fact is one played in an offense with some first rounders, the other didn't so it more than balances out.

[kingdaddy]

5 minutes ago, bh32 said:

Big difference between the two..When RC played, players were a lot lighter than they are now

For sure, it's just a comp in height, weight and athleticism.....Daniels will figure out how to protect himself once he figures out the speed of the league. It'll all depend on how smart he plays and protects himself. 

[DiscoBob]

2 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

For sure, it's just a comp in height, weight and athleticism.....Daniels will figure out how to protect himself once he figures out the speed of the league. It'll all depend on how smart he plays and protects himself. 

 

QBs that aren't super elusive in college don't "figure it out" in the NFL.  If they learn to avoid hits, it's at the expense of running.... which if applied to Daniels, eliminates one of his best assets...

[SkinsFTW]

13 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

It'll all depend on how smart he plays and protects himself. 

 

Umm

 

Edited April 21 by SkinsFTW

[TurningTheCorner]

49 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

You're simply saying words now and repeating stuff. The "far better processor" than Lamar thing is just something you sort of made up, unless you have some specific metric or film study that somehow tracks it.

I’ve watched all his plays from last year but hardly pretend I know what I’m looking at. I’m relying pretty hard on just overall information out there that all points to JD being a far better thrower than Lamar coming out. And I liked Lamar as a prospect and thought it was crazy he fell that far. 

49 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

And whether you personally don't see it, that's not relevant to the article I posted. That article breaks down actual numbers in detail. It's data, not some pure opinion piece. You don't like the data. That's fine.

I didn’t say anything about the data or not liking the data. Mahomes is on one of those

lists too btw so lets not call it a be all end all. 

49 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

And why do you just get to pick and choose which years to include? He's been a starter for 5 years but because he wasn't very impressive until his 5th year you just want to throw out the others even if they have relevant data, because you don't like the data.

not cherry picking, simply saying it’s worth noting. His 5th year is what his hype is all about, can he continue that trajectory? Burrow did. 

49 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

In that case, I officially throw out Drake Maye's 2023 "down" season. It can no longer be talked about. All that matters is his great 2022 season. Now that we have that out of the way, here's a potential case for him being #1 overall.

I like Drake Maye as a prospect, just not convinced he’s the right fit over daniels. You’re coming across pretty strong, I don’t hate Maye at all and wouldn’t mind the pick at all. 

[mistertim]

18 minutes ago, TurningTheCorner said:

I’ve watched all his plays from last year but hardly pretend I know what I’m looking at. I’m relying pretty hard on just overall information out there that all points to JD being a far better thrower than Lamar coming out. And I liked Lamar as a prospect and thought it was crazy he fell that far. 

I didn’t say anything about the data or not liking the data. Mahomes is on one of those

lists too btw so lets not call it a be all end all. 

not cherry picking, simply saying it’s worth noting. His 5th year is what his hype is all about, can he continue that trajectory? Burrow did. 

I like Drake Maye as a prospect, just not convinced he’s the right fit over daniels. You’re coming across pretty strong, I don’t hate Maye at all and wouldn’t mind the pick at all. 

 

Yes, Mahomes is on one of those lists, and that should definitely be taken into account. But it's pretty clear that he's an outlier. Usually not a great idea to use the exception to the rule when analyzing data.

 

And I never said you hated Maye. I'm just saying that picking and choosing certain years could go in a lot of ways. So if we decided to simply focus on Maye's stellar 2022 season as a 20 year old sophomore, and then focused only on Caleb's "down" 2023 season, the case could easily be made for Maye to be taken #1 overall. But that take would also lack full context, just like only choosing to pay attention to Jayden's 2023 season.

 

I'm not trying to come across that strong or as an ass, though I may not be successful at that. I'm just explaining my line of thinking. I'm opinionated, and you can tell. But I don't think I'm overall an unfair person when it comes to listening to other people and their perspectives.

Edited April 21 by mistertim

[Conn]

Spielman’s not part of the process in our FO despite advising Harris on the GM hire…but he’s gone from saying we “should” take Maye to “will” take Maye. It’s interesting given he knows people in the building and helped hire some of them 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

This week is shaping up to be huge for me. Caps are in the playoffs, we’re about to select our QB of the future, and my wife and I just bought our first house!

[mistertim]

10 minutes ago, Conn said:

Spielman’s not part of the process in our FO despite advising Harris on the GM hire…but he’s gone from saying we “should” take Maye to “will” take Maye. It’s interesting given he knows people in the building and helped hire some of them 

 

It's really interesting how pervasive the belief that Daniels is clearly the #2 pick is with sports media and draftnicks, while zero people have any actual inside information from our FO. The host was genuinely surprised and almost perplexed when Spielman said Maye will go #2. 

[NYSkins21]

9 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

This week is shaping up to be huge for me. Caps are in the playoffs, we’re about to select our QB of the future, and my wife and I just bought our first house!

You have your priorities all wrong…

 

“QB of the future” should be atop your list. Cmon bro!

 

Congrats on the house though. Good stuff.

Edited April 21 by NYSkins21

[The Consigliere]

9 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

Brady in college

 

	Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Michigan					395	638	61.9	4773	7.5	7.2	30	17	134.9
1996	Michigan	Big Ten		QB	2	3	5	60.0	26	5.2	-3.8	0	1	63.7
1997	Michigan	Big Ten		QB	4	12	15	80.0	103	6.9	6.9	0	0	137.7
1998	Michigan	Big Ten		QB	12	200	323	61.9	2427	7.5	7.0	14	10	133.1
1999	Michigan	Big Ten		QB	11	180	295	61.0	2217	7.5	7.7	16	6	138.0

 

 

You know who I thought of looking at this:

 

	Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Duke					764	1275	59.9	8201	6.4	6.2	52	29	122.9
*2015	Duke	ACC	FR	QB
2016	Duke	ACC	FR	QB	12	270	430	62.8	2836	6.6	6.4	16	9	126.3
*2017	Duke	ACC	SO	QB	13	257	453	56.7	2691	5.9	5.5	14	11	112.0
*2018	Duke	ACC	JR	QB	11	237	392	60.5	2674	6.8	6.9	22	9	131.7

 

 

 

Brady's last game against Shaun Alexander and Alabama was absolutely freaking epic, that's the one thing that made me notice, was very kind of Chicken Soup Game-ish, every time Alabama took it to Michigan, he rallied them back until they won. It was one of those markers, where, if a guy hits, you kinda think you saw why, but yeah, the profile was sketchy as hell when matched with Drew Henson being such a nuisance (that's a big reason the #'s suck, he could not get a firm grip on the starting job because Yankees prospect and hyper recruit Henson was considered the golden boy. 

[Dark Acre]

The only safe thing to do is keep #2, trade for #3 also, and draft both Maye and Daniels.  If they both pan out in preseason, you trade one to the AFC.  If only 1 hits, well, you got the right guy.  If neither hits, well, you light a fattie and turn on highlights of Gibbs 1.

[Llevron]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

That's only on Saturdays. Tomorrow we'll be good again.

 

Anyway, it's a fair point about the defenses being more complicated. However, at the end of the day, your scheme can only get you so far unless you have the horses to run it.

 

If you're running a cover 2 and you don't have the CBs with the skills to stick to their guys in a certain area, it won' matter how complicated your scheme is. They're gonna get beaten.

That’s the whole thing about him processing though. If he doesn’t know where the blitz is coming from and what coverage he is looking at then he is going to make mistakes. You don’t throw for 40/4 without being able to read the coverage. The teams he played against did a lot of post snap movement. Disgusting of looks. He did really well with that stuff. Yes a lot of it can be explained with simple “he had better WRs” but he had to read those coverages. It’s experience. It adds up. It’s why he was able to run far better this last season. He knew what looks to run into and what routs to run behind. He is a smart player. He was also on a very stacked team. Both can be true. 

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, Llevron said:

That’s the whole thing about him processing though. If he doesn’t know where the blitz is coming from and what coverage he is looking at then he is going to make mistakes. You don’t throw for 40/4 without being able to read the coverage. The teams he played against did a lot of post snap movement. Disgusting of looks. He did really well with that stuff. Yes a lot of it can be explained with simple “he had better WRs” but he had to read those coverages. It’s experience. It adds up. It’s why he was able to run far better this last season. He knew what looks to run into and what routs to run behind. He is a smart player. He was also on a very stacked team. Both can be true. 

 

Something that Jay Gruden said in a video posted earlier stood out to me a bit. He mentioned that Maye set and adjusted protections at the LoS based on what the defense was doing vs. Caleb and Daniels who looked to the sidelines.

 

Now, as I mentioned earlier, I pretty much ignore what Jay says about QBs, so I'm definitely not assuming he's correct about Caleb and Daniels (you can clearly see Maye setting protections and shifting them in his film, so I think he's correct there). But it's not something I paid a bunch of attention to when watching their tape. I was mostly washing Jayden's eyes, feet, etc. post snap.

 

But I'll watch again and see if it looks like Jay is correct or not. If he is, then that's actually a bit of a red flag for me. A QB with 5 years of starting experience isn't calling his own protections pre-snap? IF it ends up being likely true, then that could explain making good reads...he was told what they were.

 

But again, at the moment, since it's Jay, I'm actually going to assume he's incorrect and start from there and work backwards. 

Edited April 21 by mistertim

[Llevron]

14 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Something that Jay Gruden said in a video posted earlier stood out to me a bit. He mentioned that Maye set and adjusted protections at the LoS based on what the defense was doing vs. Caleb and Daniels who looked to the sidelines.

 

Now, as I mentioned earlier, I pretty much ignore what Jay says about QBs, so I'm definitely not assuming he's correct about Caleb and Daniels (you can clearly see Maye setting protections and shifting them in his film, so I think he's correct there). But it's not something I paid a bunch of attention to when watching their tape. I was mostly washing Jayden's eyes, feet, etc. post snap.

 

But I'll watch again and see if it looks like Jay is correct or not. If he is, then that's actually a bit of a red flag for me. A QB with 5 years of starting experience isn't calling his own protections pre-snap? IF it ends up being likely true, then that could explain making good reads...he was told what they were.

 

But again, at the moment, since it's Jay, I'm actually going to assume he's incorrect and start from there and work backwards. 

 

I mean he does ask the sidelines for some info. I don’t know what it is but you can clearly see him on some plays looking for help from the sideline. Not sure it’s a big deal but it is indeed a data point. 
 

The way he reads defenses I don’t doubt he has the capacity to do it all by himself with some more reps, though. Last season was his first season playing in the same offense from the previous year. Like Maye you have to wonder what he can do with more time.