The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[skinny21]

30 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

You're right and thanks for the correction, he won't turn 24 until the last month of his rookie year. 

 

You're also right on the processing piece, but we also need to note, how skilled are we at testing for processing? The Big Purdy S2 Hypetrain derailed in '23 when Bryce Young's rocket blew up on the launchpad, and processing challenged Stroud put together the best rookie year since Marino '83. Do we really know if they're good, and in what ways it matters? I'm not sure or sold they've figured that out yet. I would agree that that, along with the ability to throw with anticipation and the production profile mental make up piece are several keys, processing is a huge one, more important than a rocket arm (a good enough arm is every bit as worth it as a rocket after all, you only really have to worry if it isn't good enough, howtizers might have been qualitatively more impactful than french 75's, but in the NFL, if you've got a cannon, or just a nice arm, either way, you're fine. 

 

I remain, worried. 

 

 

Yeah, 100% agree with questioning how good the league is at testing for processing.  My guess is not very good, though that’s not necessarily a reflection on their acumen.  

With that said, maybe I’m naive/ignorant, but it seems like it should be possible to have a group of scouts (or whoever) charting games, watching in slow motion to time stamp each progression a qb goes through.  Compare data across games and seasons to come up with averages and chart improvement.

 

Contrary to my previous statements, I’m worried too due to the nature of the difficulty with evaluating the position.  I think I’m just at peace with the fact that it’ll work out or it won’t, and if it doesn’t, we’ve got adults in the room that won’t panic, but rather go back to the drawing board.  And meanwhile, I think they’ll build up a team that is relatively easy to root for.  Barring some major mistakes (aside from picking the wrong qb, if that happens), I think Peters and Quinn will get 5 years together and at least 2 bites at the qb apple.

[Ghost of]

7 minutes ago, illone said:

 

As with ANY job interview with big dollars on the line, you only get to see the mask, not the real person. Probably why these in-person interviews are so important in that you are trying to dissolve as much of the mask as possible and get a glimpse of the guys soul.  What makes him tick. What's important to him. Why does he want to be great (if at all?).

 

Throw in the fact that people change over time and you have yourself a nearly impossible psychological riddle to solve.

 

It's the human element that will probably remain a mystery forever.  

 

 

 

I also think too many people are willing to just tear up the S2 because Stroud but we have no idea if Stroud needs testing accommodations and didn't get them (I'd assume that specific type of test means no such things) or if he blew it off because he thought he was already one of the top 2 QBs. I assume the analytics guys for teams have run the statistical analyses but it also would not surprise me if they have not given them proper priority. Like maybe S2 combined with a rating of processing, or weighted scores based on system (route vs. defense reads), weight/height. One of the most interesting things I found is that medium size is correlated with performance in QBs. So not 5-6, but not 6-8 (Dan McGwire lol) and 205-215, not 245.

 

And LLevron above is correct that you need to approach this from a mixed methods lens, not merely quant and no, not just the eye test. 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, Kalu44 said:

 

No, just to be able to reply and have the previous posts show. This post is an example on how my original post (asking the question) doesn't show up, only your reply does.

As far as I know, 

 

 

 

(Although you could multi quote to get around it I suppose.  Like quoting yourself, as well as my response, then replying.  The multi quote feature was so one person could reply to multiple posters w/o having to post multiple, separate posts.)

Edited April 12 by skinny21

[CommanderInTheRye]

 

Remember way back in the good old days when the big story was Jayden Daniels' elbow?

 

Feels like that was two eternities ago.

 

I just want the draft to get here, so we can make our pick, and get this behind us.

[Ghost of]

4 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Yeah, 100% agree with questioning how good the league is at testing for processing.  My guess is not very good, though that’s not necessarily a reflection on their acumen.  

With that said, maybe I’m naive/ignorant, but it seems like it should be possible to have a group of scouts (or whoever) charting games, watching in slow motion to time stamp each progression a qb goes through.  Compare data across games and seasons to come up with averages and chart improvement.

 

 

After years in academic and the private sector and interacting with other organizations:

 

No one really has the time. The level of competence you assume is too high, not because any individual is lazy or dumb, but because the items you identify as key are just part of the job that the people in that org have to do. Then there's miscommunications, changes in rules, workflows, databases, measures, trends in HR and talent evaluation, etc. I think over time you can get to a more scientific process with QB prediction but you're still going to miss because as illone says, some of it is between the ears. And not just intelligence but persistence, resilience, applying intellectual concepts or mental models to physical performance and then back again. These are possibly easy to do in isolation, but not remotely as easy to do together. 

 

I think scouts and others should also look at how they speak in post game. Do they accept (even meekly) credit but when it's "blame" time it's "we're all in this together?" I find that to be very worrisome trait as both Campbell and Brunell did it. 

[Est.1974]

57 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

He's already quiet quitting and waiting to go back to the college game. Once Caleb was off the table, he tore up his Magic Johnson poster and checked out.

That’s was definitely the promise wasn’t it.

[MartinC]

34 minutes ago, illone said:

The part that gets missed by most evaluators is the mental side of the game.

 

Very hard to determine the mental makeup of another human being hence why the Wonderlic and S2  Cognition tests produce inconsistent results.

 

Dan Quinn has referenced it a few times in different interviews, and not just with QB.

 

As with ANY job interview with big dollars on the line, you only get to see the mask, not the real person. Probably why these in-person interviews are so important in that you are trying to dissolve as much of the mask as possible and get a glimpse of the guys soul.  What makes him tick. What's important to him. Why does he want to be great (if at all?).

 

Throw in the fact that people change over time and you have yourself a nearly impossible psychological riddle to solve.

 

It's the human element that will probably remain a mystery forever.  

 

 

The in person meetings next week are a crucial part of the process. They could swing is one way or another - or just confirm the way we were already leaning. That’s partly why all the angst in this thread about a decision that is still not made is way premature. 

[Going Commando]

27 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I think Peters and Quinn will get 5 years together and at least 2 bites at the qb apple.

 

Absolutely not.  If Peters and Quinn mess this up, they need to go.  They've been given the second overall pick in a QB class with at least two blue chippers, opportunites don't get better than this.

 

If it fails, we need to move on with a new regime and let them pick the next QB prospect.

[Dah-Dee]

7 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 all the angst in this thread about a decision that is still not made is way premature. 

 

What angst? Everybody in here is being very calm and respectful about presenting well-reasoned positions for consideration - um, hang on a sec, I need to respond to something over here....

 

 

[BMagic]

 

Gets into the difficulty of projecting Maye in the NFL, the Josh Allen comparisons and Daniels field processing progress using virtual reality.

 

I see Maye as more in the Allen/Herbert/Big Ben vein more than I do the Drew Lock/Paxton Lynch/Mac Jones vein since he can throw so much better off-platform than those guys.

 

I'm a big basketball guy. LOVED the Wizards picking Bilal Coulibaly because the metrics/tools and defensive tape were just off the charts, even though he didn't have great experience. Will Dawkins said he was a "99th percentile athlete" and I knew right then and there the Wizards finally had the correct brain-trust in the building. 

 

Hated the Johnny Davis pick and was super high on Jalen Williams for the same reason as I was Bilal when looking at his metrics/tape. Presti in OKC felt the same and snagged him. He went to Santa Clara, so I doubt Tommy Sheppard scouted him at all. Johnny Davis went to a Big Ten school (Wisconsin) and averaged 20 a game, but when I watched him, he scored on a steady diet of contested mid-range 2s which is hard to come by in the NBA with his lack of size and athleticism. Tommy whiffed on that pick hard.

 

I really wanted to know Daniels' 40 time at a new weight because running is a huge part of his game. Right now, I'm comparing his throwing style to Johnny Davis shooting contested mid-range 2s in basketball. A diet of throws outside the numbers is supremely hard to live by in the NFL. IMO, this is why Justin Fields' career has been so inconsistent. When I see Daniels throwing in the middle of the field, his target is wide open.

 

Not saying he doesn't have the ability to throw in those tight MOF windows. The interviews are very important here because Kelly may have told him that if Nabers/Thomas Jr. didn't have the DB beat, then his next thought should be to look for a running lane to get us some yards. He's just going to have to throw to the MOF more often to be a prominent starter in the league.

Edited April 12 by BMagic

[WashingtonRedWolves]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Former Football Outsiders guy

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/39901279/2024-nfl-draft-quarterback-projections-rankings-stats

 

2024 NFL draft quarterback projections: Stats and more

• 
  Aaron Schatz, ESPN WriterApr 12, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

 

 

 

For the first time since Trevor Lawrence in 2021, there is a consensus No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL draft: USC standout and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Given how correlated quarterback performance is with team wins, the team with the first pick often needs a quarterback. The Chicago Bears have that pick via the Carolina Panthers, but they also had a quarterback (Justin Fields) who finished 23rd out of 30 quarterbacks in Total QBR in 2023. Fields is now in Pittsburgh, and Chicago will more than likely select Williams.

That means the quarterback-needy Washington Commanders and New England Patriots, who are picking second and third overall, are in a position to draft North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels. There is also a potentially generational wide receiver prospect available in Marvin Harrison Jr., but because of the outsized impact a quarterback has on team success (see Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs trading now-eight-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, then winning back-to-back Super Bowls), it is likely that the Commanders and Patriots will both select quarterbacks.In doing so, they will hope they land this year's C.J. Stroud. ESPN Radio's "Unsportsmanlike" host Evan Cohen posted on X that ideally, you should "draft a QB when you want one, so you never need one." The Chiefs with Mahomes and the Green Bay Packers with Jordan Love provide a strong case for Cohen's point. But Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Houston Texans to the AFC South title, so if the quarterback pick is right, it can work out even if it is made out of necessity.

Then there are Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr., who could go in the first round to any of the teams after the third pick that might be looking for a change at quarterback, such as the New York Giants (No. 6), Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) and Denver Broncos (No. 12). McCarthy has been mocked as high as No. 4 overall. Finally, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler is a potential Day 2 pick who could end up on a team looking to upgrade its backup quarterback.

With the above background, we present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2024 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Olbrecht and Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, as well as the number of years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability (see Daniels), and while it rewards improvements over time (Daniels again), it penalizes one-year wonders (once again, Daniels).

The quarterbacks below are listed in order of ranking on a consensus big board, and interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward. A value of 0 Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range. Here are our 2024 projections.

Projections for the 2024 class

 

Caleb Williams, USC
Consensus Big Board: 1

MEAN PROJECTION	0.61 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	28.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.8%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	24.1%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	21.2%

Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC's overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took Spencer Rattler's starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection.

---

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2

MEAN PROJECTION	0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	49.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.6%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	16.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	8.9%

Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.

Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.

---

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4

MEAN PROJECTION	0.34 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	37.7%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	27.2%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.4%

Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville.

However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.

---

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6

MEAN PROJECTION	0.20 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	45.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	17.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	10.1%

McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).

Do you have Penix and Nix’s #’s?

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I kinda sorda agree and it gives me some concern with this regime. They took forever to hire a HC too. I get doing due dilligence but at some point you nut up and make a decision or you get blinded by decision paralysis. I hope AP isn't like this. I don't think he is with how furious he attacked FA.

 

I think they definitely have a preference right now and after the pro day, they will know 100% sure.

I think the "they took forever to hire a HC thing is completely overblown.

 

Let's say Ben Johnson and Mike Macdonald were two of the leading candidates they wanted to consider.  They literally couldn't talk to either of them apart from a zoom call until they both lost on the same Conference Sunday, which was on January 28th.  Those are the NFL rules.  No coach could interview in person who was with a current team until they lost.  Coaches who didn't have a current team could interview anytime.  Quinn also couldn't interview until a certain date because he was still employed by the Cowboys, but I think they could talk to him slightly earlier because the Cowboys lost earlier. 

 

By all accounts they interviewed Macdonald the Monday after the conference game and were flying to interview Ben Johnson on Tuesday when he canceled on them.

 

They announced the hiring of Quinn on Thursday.  

 

In order to make anything move faster, they would have had to have skipped on Macdonald and Ben Johnson entirely, and probably hired Raheem Morris.  They could also have hired Jim Harbaugh or Bill Belichick, I suppose.

 

I think the only candidate they were really considering who they missed out on was Morris.  But if they went for Morris, they would have taken Macdonald and Ben Johnson off the table before they ever interviewed them in person.

 

What could have helped them move faster is if the Lions had lost a week earlier.  Then maybe all the Ben Johnson stuff is out of the way a week earlier and maybe they do something different.

 

But with the hand they were dealt, they got screwed by Ben Johnson backing out while they were in route to talk to him literally the second day after they were able to do so.  

17 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Absolutely not.  If Peters and Quinn mess this up, they need to go.  They've been given the second overall pick in a QB class with at least two blue chippers, opportunites don't get better than this.

 

If it fails, we need to move on with a new regime and let them pick the next QB prospect.

I disagree with this entirely.  60% of QBs fail.  It's basically luck.  People can argue about which is better than the other, but at the end of the day, it's luck.  You do all the work, and then you pray to the football Gods you got it right.  

 

Whoever they pick has a greater chance at failing than succeeding.  

 

To me, the key is picking a guy and then making you put them in the best possible situation to succeed, you give them enough time to develop, but if it's clearly not working, you move on quickly.  But not too quickly.  You have to just keep taking shots until you get it right.  

 

Any one of or all three of Williams, Maye, Daniels could fail.  

[Dah-Dee]

10 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Do you have Penix and Nix’s #’s?

 

These were the others in the article:

 

Bo Nix, Oregon
Consensus Big Board: 31

MEAN PROJECTION	-0.08 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	54.1%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	24.4%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	6.9%

 

 

QBASE has a somewhat positive projection for Nix compared to his expected draft position. Due to the extra year of eligibility the COVID-19 pandemic granted him, he was a five-year starter (though QBASE only gives him credit for the usual maximum of four years), and he improved every year he played. His 77.4% completion percentage in 2023 is one of the highest in our entire data set, and his passer rating and rushing yards per attempt came in second this year, behind Daniels.

On the downside, his 6.3 air yards per attempt in 2023 was the worst of this year's prospects, and this year's QBASE adds a penalty to account for that. And at 24 years old come Sept. 1 (which is the cutoff date we use for a prospect's age), he is the oldest of this year's prospects, though his age penalty is still much smaller than Hendon Hooker's was last year. Nix is not Justin Herbert -- he did not have the four years of success Herbert had in Oregon, nor does he have Herbert's elite arm strength -- but QBASE still views him as a first-round pick.

---

Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Consensus Big Board: 32

MEAN PROJECTION	-0.43 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	68.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	19.4%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	3.5%

 

 

Also 24 years old on Sept. 1 (though slightly younger than Nix), Penix played six years of college football. Like Daniels and Nix, he received an extra year of eligibility because of COVID-19. Unlike them, his 2022 performance was comparable to his 2023 showing -- which is good, since he is not a one-year wonder. But he has additional concerns the others do not have.

First, he tore his right ACL twice and seriously injured both shoulders at Indiana, where he played before transferring to Washington in 2022. Also, his rushing yards per attempt took a big step back in 2023 at just 0.2, and he struggled when being pressured out of the pocket, both of which hurt his projection. He has the pocket passing and sack avoidance skills to succeed in the NFL, but drafting him early means assuming a high bust risk.

---

Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 87

MEAN PROJECTION	-1.43 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	90.5%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	7.1%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	1.9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	0.5%

 

 

 

A breakout 2020 season at Oklahoma made Rattler an early Heisman favorite in 2021, but his college career faced a major setback when he lost his starting job to Caleb Williams. However, after transferring to South Carolina in 2022, Rattler bounced back enough to put himself in consideration for a Day 2 pick in this year's draft.

While he did not impress with his legs at South Carolina (1.1 rushing yards per attempt in 2023), he completed more than 65% of his passes in both seasons there, throwing for a career-high 3,186 yards in 2023. Overall, QBASE agrees with most scouts that he is unlikely to make it as an NFL starter, but he can be a workable backup.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

3 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

These were the others in the article:

 

Bo Nix, Oregon
Consensus Big Board: 31

MEAN PROJECTION	-0.08 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	54.1%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	24.4%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	6.9%

 

 

QBASE has a somewhat positive projection for Nix compared to his expected draft position. Due to the extra year of eligibility the COVID-19 pandemic granted him, he was a five-year starter (though QBASE only gives him credit for the usual maximum of four years), and he improved every year he played. His 77.4% completion percentage in 2023 is one of the highest in our entire data set, and his passer rating and rushing yards per attempt came in second this year, behind Daniels.

On the downside, his 6.3 air yards per attempt in 2023 was the worst of this year's prospects, and this year's QBASE adds a penalty to account for that. And at 24 years old come Sept. 1 (which is the cutoff date we use for a prospect's age), he is the oldest of this year's prospects, though his age penalty is still much smaller than Hendon Hooker's was last year. Nix is not Justin Herbert -- he did not have the four years of success Herbert had in Oregon, nor does he have Herbert's elite arm strength -- but QBASE still views him as a first-round pick.

---

Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Consensus Big Board: 32

MEAN PROJECTION	-0.43 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	68.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	19.4%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	3.5%

 

 

Also 24 years old on Sept. 1 (though slightly younger than Nix), Penix played six years of college football. Like Daniels and Nix, he received an extra year of eligibility because of COVID-19. Unlike them, his 2022 performance was comparable to his 2023 showing -- which is good, since he is not a one-year wonder. But he has additional concerns the others do not have.

First, he tore his right ACL twice and seriously injured both shoulders at Indiana, where he played before transferring to Washington in 2022. Also, his rushing yards per attempt took a big step back in 2023 at just 0.2, and he struggled when being pressured out of the pocket, both of which hurt his projection. He has the pocket passing and sack avoidance skills to succeed in the NFL, but drafting him early means assuming a high bust risk.

---

Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 87

MEAN PROJECTION	-1.43 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	90.5%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	7.1%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	1.9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	0.5%

 

 

 

A breakout 2020 season at Oklahoma made Rattler an early Heisman favorite in 2021, but his college career faced a major setback when he lost his starting job to Caleb Williams. However, after transferring to South Carolina in 2022, Rattler bounced back enough to put himself in consideration for a Day 2 pick in this year's draft.

While he did not impress with his legs at South Carolina (1.1 rushing yards per attempt in 2023), he completed more than 65% of his passes in both seasons there, throwing for a career-high 3,186 yards in 2023. Overall, QBASE agrees with most scouts that he is unlikely to make it as an NFL starter, but he can be a workable backup.

Thanks, I also wonder what the history of these looks like? (What was Mahomes, Z Wilson, Allen, Trubisky, etc etc)

[Llevron]

What would them moving faster to decide on a the draft pick allow them to do anyway? Seriously - im assuming its more than just build an offense around them or something. Or is that it? There has to be something else im not thinking about. 

[SoCalSkins]

31 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Absolutely not.  If Peters and Quinn mess this up, they need to go.  They've been given the second overall pick in a QB class with at least two blue chippers, opportunites don't get better than this.

 

If it fails, we need to move on with a new regime and let them pick the next QB prospect.

 

Who would take the GM job then? It starts looking like Tepper in Carolina fast. You have to give the decisions you make some time. Peters will take a massive reputational hit if he misses and the one he passed on excels, but I doubt he gets fired.

[Rufus T Firefly]

6 hours ago, Conn said:

Funny that Keim dedicated the whole post to making it clear that it is nobody’s job to lose, and why—and your immediate takeaway was that it is in fact someone’s job to lose. When he said “don’t overlook something because u have already settled” he’s explaining why they haven’t already settled on anybody, not saying that despite settling on somebody already they don’t want to miss something

Actually, he said it was "that last sentence" but the last sentence was "The end"

 

So I've been trying to decode how the sentence could possibly indicate they will pick Jayden Daniels. 

 

Wait...Jayden..... end...... d.e.n.= e.n.d.

 

[DogofWar1]

26 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Cold hard data would be able to go backwards, and show us exactly who we were missing. They would be able to point out Wilson, Brady and everyone else with certainty....if there was certainty. They Cant. Because there isnt any such thing. The problem with some in the analytic crowd is they cannot admit this, and find a balance between numbers and the other factors. There needs to be a balance. 

 

Some people are like that but most people I see are making charts and trying to get correlations, and anytime you start charting out stats you're gonna see a lot of noise, but sometimes a correlation emerges.

 

Like P2S, there's a clear correlation between how good they are and their college P2S.  Sure, Joe Burrow is a major outlier but outside of him it's a good indicator.

 

Get enough stats with enough correlations and you should be able to get a decent hit rate.

[SoCalSkins]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

What would them moving faster to decide on a the draft pick allow them to do anyway? Seriously - im assuming its more than just build an offense around them or something. Or is that it? There has to be something else im not thinking about. 

 

Ultimately, it's Peters decision and I strongly suspect he has known who he is taking from the moment he accepted the GM job. He wants to look process oriented and confirm his due diligence, but the guy has been a scout for a long time and involved with the draft longer. Barring some crazy incident or 11th hour unpleasant news dropping, the pick has been made but he's not saying a word.

[illone]

41 minutes ago, MartinC said:

That’s partly why all the angst in this thread about a decision that is still not made is way premature. 

  
 

Another mystery of human behavior 🤣

[Llevron]

3 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

Some people are like that but most people I see are making charts and trying to get correlations, and anytime you start charting out stats you're gonna see a lot of noise, but sometimes a correlation emerges.

 

Like P2S, there's a clear correlation between how good they are and their college P2S.  Sure, Joe Burrow is a major outlier but outside of him it's a good indicator.

 

Get enough stats with enough correlations and you should be able to get a decent hit rate.

 

I feel like there isn't though. There were plenty of QBs on the good side of that list that were just not good. I will have to look at them again. But the definition of "success" in that list I feel like I had a major problem with. Talking about the P2S% in particular. I will give it credit for being steady from one playing field to another, and thats not nothing. Not sure exactly what it is, though.  

[DogofWar1]

Quinn might be done if this QB flops but Peters probably isn't.

 

Which seems kinda unfair bc it's Peters making the final call on QB but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

[CommanderInTheRye]

42 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Absolutely not.  If Peters and Quinn mess this up, they need to go.  They've been given the second overall pick in a QB class with at least two blue chippers, opportunites don't get better than this.

 

If it fails, we need to move on with a new regime and let them pick the next QB prospect.

 

 

Is this parody of our former regime's management style, or are you really serious?

[illone]

42 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Absolutely not.  If Peters and Quinn mess this up, they need to go.  They've been given the second overall pick in a QB class with at least two blue chippers, opportunites don't get better than this.

 

If it fails, we need to move on with a new regime and let them pick the next QB prospect.

 

I hope Harris isnt approaching it like this. 
 

I’d prefer Peters to get at least one more shot at QB unless the rest of these next two draft classes are Rivera like. 

[Kalu44]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

As far as I know, 

 

 

 

(Although you could multi quote to get around it I suppose.  Like quoting yourself, as well as my response, then replying.  The multi quote feature was so one person could reply to multiple posters w/o having to post multiple, separate posts.)

 

I'd love to be able to quote myself, then your response when replying - so others can follow along the conversation. Not sure how to do that. It used to work for me in the past.