The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Keim is a known Washington reporter. Of course rival execs will leak that they like Daniels more in hopes that he can influence the local team to pick who they want them to pick.

 

As I said Keim purposely talked to coaches, etc who aren't taking a QB in this draft.  Basically all teams do their due diligence from what I understand on all players (for future reference, etc).  Clearly, figuring they have no reason to manipulate the info.  Keim's been around the block for a long time, he clearly knows when teams have agendas, etc.

 

He said its been hands down Daniels over Maye with the coaches he's talked to and he's referenced that some of these coaches he respects their take highly on the subject at hand.  I think he mentioned personnel guys too but don't recall that for certain but I definitely recall current coaches in the league without something at stake with these QBs.

 

I'll say the same thing about this as I did on the coaching thread months back.    During that time, Keim shut down the idea of Belichick even though some national reporters said he's a possibility.  He didn't think Slowik was one of the hotter of the 7 candidates they were talking to even though some on the board were really hot for Slowik.  He said Ben Johnson is a serious candidate but don't believe the national reporters who say that's their guy, its far from 100%. 

 

And he said from the jump Quinn is a serious candidate who interviewed well and has a real shot at it.  Some didn't like that info.  I get it.  I was a Ben Johnson guy until he flaked out but it was what it was.  And there was pushback to the Quinn idea from Keim on the coaching thread back then.

 

I can think of other stuff too like Sheehan among others being convinced the rebranding would happen as soon as this off season and Keim saying nope.

 

Keim isn't perfect.  But he's a bit of a legend to my eyes @Voice_of_Reason  because of being a bit of a media hound forever, I've never seen anyone as accurate as this guy about the team and what they do.  I am not saying he knows everything.  Far from it.  But what he shares is very rarely wrong.  And part of that is he's clearly good at knowing when he's being manipulated by a source versus those he can trust.

 

That's my long winded way of saying.  Back when I understood Quinn was a serious candidate.  I didn't freak out about it because I was good if it ended up him even though he wasn't my top choice.  While Maye is my top choice, i am likewise not freaking out if its Daniels.  I am good if it was him.  So for those really against the idea of Daniels, I am just saying I at a minimum would take it seriously as a real possibility.  I am not saying it happens.   But i seriously doubt this FO is dismissing Daniels as a possibility judging by Keim's comments.

Edited April 2 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

That's all fair but I don't think Keim's reporting based off what OTHER teams are saying leads any credence to what THIS team is thinking. And those teams aren't really incentivized to tell the truth anyway.

[TheBigJourney]

Not gospel of course but I’m telling you, JJ could be the guy

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, TheBigJourney said:

Not gospel of course but I’m telling you, JJ could be the guy

 

That quote and tweet is just as meaningless as any other rando who says stuff yet has no actual inside info.

[Dah-Dee]

New Post article:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/02/jayden-daniels-drake-maye-no-2/

 

The biggest question of the NFL draft: Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels at No. 2?

Analysis by Sam Fortier

Staff writer

April 2, 2024 at 10:04 a.m. EDT

 

[excerpt]

 

The pro days started with measurements, which were important for Daniels. He’d opted out of all measurements and testing at the combine, saying he wanted to wait for the pro day so he could get his teammates more exposure. Some skeptical scouts suspected he wanted more time to put on weight; even though he’s a game-changing runner, many worry his thin frame won’t hold up over time, given his reckless running style and repeated exposure to big hits.

 

In Baton Rouge, Daniels measured 6-foot-3⅝ and 210 pounds. Over the past two decades, only three quarterbacks drafted in the first round have been roughly as tall and light: Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith and Robert Griffin III.

 

Now, teams must ask themselves: Does Daniels need to gain weight? If so, can he remain a dynamic runner? And regardless, can he better protect himself? LSU Coach Brian Kelly said the No. 1 question he’s gotten from teams has been, “Will he slide?”

 

 

Also: Interesting data:

 

 

Edited April 2 by Dah-Dee

[RWJ]

On 4/25 when we hear the Commish say "With the 2nd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, The Washington Commanders select...."  It's on and its real.  

[fanman8825]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

You take the long term guy when you're in year 1 of a new regime picking #2 overall. You don't take a 24 year old running QB who weights as much as a beanpole.

I agree with you completely. I called in last week when Kevin Sheehan asked callers who do you think the team will pick. I said Maye because he was better than Daniels at age 21 and it was not even close.

Obviously the upside is a factor as well. I also thought Maye’s situation this past year was similar to Justin Herbert’s final year at Oregon when he posted good numbers despite not having the receivers not even close to being as good as Tua’s at Alabama or Burrow’s at LSU.

Daniels frame is an issue for me and the weight as well. Sure I get any QB can get hurt any given Sunday but the risk would be too high for me. 

[Dah-Dee]

Sorry, removing social media post from fake account.

Edited April 2 by Dah-Dee

[TheBigJourney]

3 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

I guess if true this would make it extremely unlikely Commanders trade down (I thought it already extremely unlikely, but whatever), nobody else has two firsts this year to trade:

 

 

Fake account

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, TheBigJourney said:

Fake account

 

If I see something like that on Twitter, I wait 3-5 minutes to see if Rappaport or Schefter report it. If nothing, I disregard haha.

 

I also have a really hard time seeing a trade like that going down before draft day, too. If the Pats want Daniels, they'll wait until they know we're locked in to him. Or they'll at least try to kick the tires on a trade-up before trading down. 

Edited April 2 by JamesMadisonSkins

[WashingtonRedWolves]

6 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

I guess if true this would make it extremely unlikely Commanders trade down, nobody else has two firsts this year to trade:

 

 

While fake this does seem likely for the price to get the 3rd pick. Maybe throw in an additional 2nd or 3rd, especially since NE needs a new franchise QB and mccarthy won't be there at 11 anymore

[mistertim]

Meh, I'll believe that tweet when there are other sources corroborating it.

[Dah-Dee]

New SI article: Albert Breer has lots and lots of not-fake thoughts on the NFL, including QB prospects:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/02/takeaways-drake-maye-mccarthy-penix-nix-nfl-draft

 

[excerpt]

 

Drake Maye’s pro day was a good example of what these workouts have become leading up to the NFL draft. There was a throw that got out on social media from the North Carolina quarterback that, to put it nicely, was a little off. Maye’s target was running a route to the sideline, and the ball went so far over the receiver’s head that he didn’t even put his hands up for it. Predictably, the play got clipped on social media, and was used as an indictment against the 21-year-old.

 

 

Want the truth? It was part of a tough start that was shaken off very quickly.

 

In the end, Maye’s 70-plus throwing session confirmed what scouts already thought of him, including an AFC offensive coach who made the trip to Chapel Hill for Thursday’s throwing session.

 

“Yeah, he missed like two throws high early and then he was money the rest of the way,” he texted. “He’s so talented. He would be the No. 1 pick in like 80% of drafts.”

 

I followed up with this particular coach on the phone to dig a little deeper.

 

“He’s a puppy—he’s so young, he’s so talented, he can make every throw, he’s a freak,” the coach says. “[The workout] started out showing his ability to move, the tight, compact release. The ball jumps off his hand. He did a good job moving and throwing the ball off-balance. There were a couple off one foot. They did a nice job of having a lot of throws in there, a different variety of throws. He has no limitations.”

 

The coach then compared him to Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, in his belief that in his final year in college, the offense Herbert played in held him back in some ways, and forced him to carry the group in others. And while it manifested differently for  the two of them—with Herbert, there weren’t a lot of bad plays, but there weren’t a lot of spectacular plays, either; with Maye, you had to take a bunch of bad plays with great ones—what it means for NFL teams is similar.

 

So, you have to be able to separate the player from his circumstances as best as you can. The upshot for Maye is—similar to Herbert—the physical potential is unquestionable.

 

“What I’m impressed with is how big he is,” says another offensive coach from an AFC team that was at the pro day. “You look at that Pro Bowl picture last year, somebody had it, the Mannings and all the Pro Bowl quarterbacks, and you see how small those guys are. Drake, I mean, he’s all of 6’4” and he’s big. I see him still getting there upper body-wise; that’s where he looks a little young, but he’s got a huge frame, and he can throw the hell out of the ball down the field. His arm strength, that’s a huge plus, especially if he goes somewhere like New England, out there late in the year.”

 

I then mentioned to this coach a throw that Maye made when he rolled right and seemed to throw with his feet off the ground, generating a ton of velocity while in a very imperfect body position. “He’s just a good all-around athlete,” the coach says. “That shouldn’t shock anybody, if you look at his family history. And you’re right, he’s got that spatial awareness, this depth perception, where it doesn’t have to be perfect.”

 

And it wasn’t perfect, to be sure. There were things to pick apart. But there’s also a belief from the NFL combine that this is a quarterback who will figure it out. In Indianapolis, he was at the top of the quarterback group in how he interviewed with teams, and also in how he interacted with other players from all walks, and naturally became a leader in that setting.

 

So what the pro day showed, sans a couple hiccups that led to ridiculous social-media-driven conclusions, is there’s a lot to work with—and that the best is probably yet to come.

Edited April 2 by Dah-Dee

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Keim is a known Washington reporter. Of course rival execs will leak that they like Daniels more in hopes that he can influence the local team to pick who they want them to pick.

 

You think who we pick will be influenced by rumours or reports of what other teams think we will pick?? If that's true we hired the wrong GM and HC.

 

I dont think its true. I think our front office will make their decision based on our grades and who we feel fits best in what we want to do offensively. The smoke is more for fans to chew on as we wait for the draft!

[Skinsinparadise]

PFF has been very steady as pro Maye at 2.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buying-selling-latest-2024-nfl-draft-rumors-jj-mccarthy

“LSU QB JAYDEN DANIELS WILL BE THE NO. 2 OVERALL PICK BY THE WASHINGTON COMMANDERS“

Verdict: Sell

Daniels has understandably catapulted up draft boards after one of the most impressive college football seasons in history, with the Heisman winner’s 94.7 grade being the top mark among all college football quarterbacks, his 8.4% big-time throw rate ranking sixth and his 1.6% turnover worthy play rate also placing sixth.

 

Daniels lit up the scoreboard on a near-weekly basis, putting up some truly absurd stat lines through the air and on the ground. We also don’t buy the notion of a “late breakout” for Daniels — yes, he has certainly improved his game over time — considering he put up a stat line of 22-of-32, 408 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions as a true freshman in 2019 in a win over Justin Herbert’s No. 6-ranked Oregon Ducks.

 

All of that said, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is receiving similar treatment to presumptive No. 1 overall pick USC quarterback Caleb Williams for a “down” final college season. Despite very poor surrounding circumstances, Maye earned a 90.8 grade that ranked 14th in the country, and he finished top-11 in both big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy play rate in 2023.

 

Daniels is currently -150 to be the No. 2 overall pick on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Drake Maye holding the second-best odds (+150). We’d suggest buying now on plus-odds for Maye if the offering is available in your state. We think Maye is becoming this year’s overthought quarterback prospect, akin to C.J. Stroud last year, S2 test notwithstanding, and will end up as the No. 2 overall pick when all is said and done.

We also discussed in our Mock Draft 1.0 how the hype about Daniels fitting stylistically with Kliff Kingsbury, who coached the Arizona Cardinals in the same city as Arizona State for Daniels’ three seasons there, while true, similarly applies to Maye.

[Dah-Dee]

[excerpt on Daniels from the new Breer article]

 

You can give Jayden Daniels similar marks for his work the day before in Baton Rouge. His pro day was probably the most heavily attended workout of this draft cycle by the top guys—general managers and head coaches—and not just because of Daniels. There were also the two receivers (Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.) likely to go inside the top half of the first round.

 

Like Maye, Daniels checked all the boxes to show the decision-makers in attendance that everything they saw on tape translated in a live setting.

 

“He looked good,” an offensive coordinator in attendance says. “He showed his fluidity and athleticism. The mid- to short-range accuracy is really easy for him. … I feel like every one of these pro days is a little bit different. They didn’t get dramatic in the routes they ran with these guys. He handled it all well. It solidified him as one of the first two picks in the draft.”

 

The coordinator then added, “It was eerily similar to C.J. [Stroud’s] pro day, just in his mechanics, the rhythm of it.”

 

The imperfections came down the field, with two receivers that run 40-yard dashes in the 4.3s adjusting a bit while the ball was in the air.

 

“I didn’t think the workout just blew anyone away,” says an NFC exec. “There was some mechanical stuff that didn’t look real clean. I thought the deep ball was kind of all over the place. When he sets his feet and he’s balanced, there’s really a good arm there. It’s a really natural stroke. But he missed some throws, some locations … What gives you a little pause is maybe he’s not as polished as a thrower as you maybe would have thought.”

 

The exec added that it would have been nice to have gotten a confirmed 40 time on Daniels, given how important his breakaway ability in the run game is to his total package, but it’s hard to fault the Heisman winner for not running. Maye, Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix didn’t run one, either, at the combine or their respective pro days. But Michael Penix Jr. did, given his medical questions.

 

So Daniels, at least for now, is the presumptive favorite to be the No. 2 pick, behind Williams, with his combination of that natural throwing ability and freakish athleticism making him a little different than the other top guys in the class.

[RWJ]

4 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

You think who we pick will be influenced by rumours or reports of what other teams think we will pick?? If that's true we hired the wrong GM and HC.

 

I dont think its true. I think our front office will make their decision based on our grades and who we feel fits best in what we want to do offensively. The smoke is more for fans to chew on as we wait for the draft!

...and to some degree sway NFL teams.  Not in great degree but it keeps them guessing.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

It was, and always will be ... the guy that everyone has slated would be the #1 or #2 pick since last spring. Everything else is typical draft cycle gossip, rumor milling, and speculation.

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

It was, and always will be ... the guy that everyone has slated would be the #1 or #2 pick since last spring. Everything else is typical draft cycle gossip, rumor milling, and speculation.

 

Correct. I am committing, right now, that I will allow each and every one of you to whack me in the balls with a car antenna as hard as you possibly can if we draft anyone besides Drake Maye at #2.

Edited April 2 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[Dah-Dee]

1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Correct. I am committing, right now, that I will allow each and every one of you to whack in the balls with a car antenna as hard as you possibly can if we draft anyone besides Drake Maye at #2.

 

I mean, okay, but it might take me a little while to get there:

 

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

So Daniels, at least for now, is the presumptive favorite to be the No. 2 pick, behind Williams, with his combination of that natural throwing ability and freakish athleticism making him a little different than the other top guys in the class.

 

To play off of this point.

 

So people don't misconstrue what I am saying Keim's being saying.

 

A.  He's not saying what he hears from other teams is that this team picks Daniels. 

 

B.  He's not sure that this team is picking Daniels.

 

What he's been saying....

 

A.  If I understand him right every coach he talked without a stake in this including coaches he respects a lot as to their QB acumen, all tell him Daniels > Maye.  And they don't find it super close.  So based on that he's assuming that this regime might fall accordingly considering he's getting zero mixed opinion on it and he continues to probe and it hasn't changed the more he probes.

 

B.  He's not ruling out Maye as a possibility.  He seems to think though McCarthy is unlikely the dude at #2.

 

C.  Moving target, this FO hasn't decided

 

that's it. 😎

 

Here he's referring to some of the criticism Matt Miller leveled at Maye in Keim's podcast.

 

Edited April 2 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

9 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Correct. I am committing, right now, that I will allow each and every one of you to whack me in the balls with a car antenna as hard as you possibly can if we draft anyone besides Drake Maye at #2.

[skinsfan66]

I think it is true Washington does not know who they are taking. And nothing would surprise me after FA and the players they signed.  

 

[sinews]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

all tell him Daniels > Maye.  And they don't find it super close

I'm not impugning Keim here, much less yourself SIP, I just find it a little difficult to believe that everyone Keim has talked to has been universal in Daniels > Maye. Would be interested in the make-up of that sample size.

 

But it's cool with me if that's indeed the case! Personally, the more noise I hear about Jayden to Washington, the more I'm convinced it's going to be Maye (or even McCarthy, although seemingly unlikely). 

 

 

[TheBigJourney]