The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Bacon]

McCarthy has potential and some very good qualities, but him starting day 1 for this Commanders team is a recipe for disaster and Mariota is not a viable QB1. He simply didn't have to throw that many passes at the college level. Daniels is much further along in his development, though it is more possible that we're closer to his ceiling.

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

 

 

This is incredibly telling, especially when you pair it with the below.  Drake Maye did far more, with far less around him, than his peers.  Interesting that Daniels was actually more impressive than Williams over the last two years from this perspective.

 

 

[mistertim]

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Doyle Brunson: "I ain't got nothin' decent in the hole, boys"

 

Twitter scouts: "HA! Doyle must have 7-2 offsuit. ALL IN!"

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

Now, for anyone who may think "OMG Tim is so in the tank for Maye and never says anything bad about him", there's a very concerning number within that 4th quarter throw stat: 2 TDS and 5 INTs.

 

To me that could indicated a few things. In order of level of concern they are:

 

1) Maye is in a position where he feels he has to play hero ball to bail his team out and it leads to pushing the ball to guys who are too covered (his receivers didn't get much separation in general, anyway)

 

2) Maye's sometimes questionable decision making rears its head more when they're in a hole and riding on his arm

 

3) Maye is simply not clutch and makes tons of mistakes when things are in crunch time as he can't handle the pressure

In 2022, Maye threw 9 TDs to 2 INTs in the 4th quarter of games. 
 

I don’t think he just turned “un-clutch” last year. I know you’re not pushing that narrative, but in the wrong hands, that stat is dangerous. 

 

Just to provide some context, these are the 5 fourth quarter picks from last season.

 

1. Leading South Carolina 31-17, 11:48 left. Throw down right sideline, back shoulder ball (about 25 yards downfield). Ball hits Paysour in both hands, bounces off, directly into hands of defending DB. Ball probably could have been a bit further outside, but obvious drop and bad fortune on the carom.

 

2. Trailing UVA 31-27, 0:31 left (midfield, no timeouts). Hit as he throws, ball comes floating out, intercepted by LB with no receiver within 15 yards of him. LT gets badly beaten instantly off the edge, no help from unoccupied LG, edge rusher hits Maye within approximately 2 seconds of snap.

 

3. Trailing Clemson 31-20, 2:41 left. Throw to Maye’s right, Walker running a hitch or stop on the sideline, about 9 yards downfield. N. Wiggins jumps it, cuts in front of Walker to make the pick. Maye was maybe a little late, but Walker doesn’t come back to the ball at all. Very nice play by Wiggins.
 

4. Trailing NC State 39-20, 12:13 left. Throw to Maye’s right, Walker running some sort of in-breaking route, about 8 yards downfield. DB gets his hand in, ball pops up, and P. Wilson dives to intercept. Maye forced it a bit, but Walker runs an incredibly lazy route. He’s really not good on anything except verticals. Tough break on the carom.

 

5. Trailing NC State 39-20, 1:54 left. Throw over the left hash, Nesbit running deep crosser (25 yards) against Cover 3 shell. Ball hits Nesbit in both hands, pops up into the air, safety dives to intercept it. Throw was a bit high and a bit behind, Nesbit had to jump and reach back to try to catch it, but it’s certainly deemed a “drop” in the NFL. Yet another bad break on the carom.

Edited March 26 by e16bball

[mac8887]

7 minutes ago, Bacon said:

McCarthy has potential and some very good qualities, but him starting day 1 for this Commanders team is a recipe for disaster and Mariota is not a viable QB1. He simply didn't have to throw that many passes at the college level. Daniels is much further along in his development, though it is more possible that we're closer to his ceiling.

I’m nervous about the team implementing a completely new offensive system with more than likely 3 or 4 new starters on the o line, with most likely a rookie LT holding down the blind side. I do feel more comfortable with Jayden starting in that position because of how much ball he’s played, but even still, I’m hoping the new 1st string o line takes every snap in preseason to get things completely in sync if they plan on starting the rookie day 1.

[HTTRDynasty]

Good clip.  That Kingsbury shade though 🙃

 

 

[illone]

12 minutes ago, Bacon said:

McCarthy has potential and some very good qualities, but him starting day 1 for this Commanders team is a recipe for disaster and Mariota is not a viable QB1. He simply didn't have to throw that many passes at the college level. Daniels is much further along in his development, though it is more possible that we're closer to his ceiling.

 

 

This could hold true for ANY of the QBs selected.

 

A lot has to do with the team and scheme they land on.

 

Example: what if Penix landed on the Dolphins and beat out Tua?  He could easily be ROY in that scenario. His arm is already bigger and better than Tua and with those weapons... he could throw for 5000 yards lol.

 

Nobody knows how well any of these players are going perform at the next level. Including McCarthy.  I could easily argue that he never looked like the moment was too big for him, which does translate to the next level, so by that "inexact science" could easily step in and do well right from the jump.  If JJ was drafted here and won the job vs Mariota, he has plenty of weapons around him and a staff that likes to run the football. No reason to think it's a "recipe for disaster" like you stated. 

 

Now if it was Eric Bieneimy calling 60 pass plays every game?👀

[mistertim]

10 minutes ago, e16bball said:

In 2022, Maye threw 9 TDs to 2 INTs in the 4th quarter of games. 
 

I don’t think he just turned “un-clutch” last year. I know you’re not pushing that narrative, but in the wrong hands, that stat is dangerous. 

 

Just to provide some context, these are the 5 fourth quarter picks from last season.

 

1. Leading South Carolina 31-17, 11:48 left. Throw down right sideline, back shoulder ball (about 25 yards downfield). Ball hits Paysour in both hands, bounces off, directly into hands of defending DB. Ball probably could have been a bit further outside, but obvious drop and bad fortune on the carom.

 

2. Trailing UVA 31-27, 0:31 left (midfield, no timeouts). Hit as he throws, ball comes floating out, intercepted by LB with no receiver within 15 yards of him. LT gets badly beaten instantly off the edge, no help from unoccupied LG, edge rusher hits Maye within approximately 2 seconds of snap.

 

3. Trailing Clemson 31-20, 2:41 left. Throw to Maye’s right, Walker running a hitch or stop on the sideline, about 9 yards downfield. N. Wiggins jumps it, cuts in front of Walker to make the pick. Maye was maybe a little late, but Walker doesn’t come back to the ball at all. Very nice play by Wiggins.
 

4. Trailing NC State 39-20, 12:13 left. Throw to Maye’s right, Walker running some sort of in-breaking route, about 8 yards downfield. DB gets his hand in, ball pops up, and P. Wilson dives to intercept. Maye forced it a bit, but Walker runs an incredibly lazy route. He’s really not good on anything except verticals. Tough break on the carom.

 

5. Trailing NC State 39-20, 1:54 left. Throw over the left hash, Nesbit running deep crosser (25 yards) against Cover 3 shell. Ball hits Nesbit in both hands, pops up into the air, safety dives to intercept it. Throw was a bit high and a bit behind, Nesbit had to jump and reach back to try to catch it, but it’s certainly deemed a “drop” in the NFL. Yet another bad break on the carom.

 

Thanks for providing more context. I probably should have put another category in there for either drops or bad luck, considering that (IIRC) UNC had one of the highest receiver drop rates in college football last season.

 

I also should have taken a look at 2022 to see if there was a pattern. That's my bad for not digging deeper.

[mudhog]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

So we got three differrnt narratives ftom insiders saying their intel is Peters wants Maye, another saying Daniels and another saying McCarthy 

Well, you can scratch this particular insider off your list as being credible. Never trust a guy that wears a casual-wear suit with shoes and no socks. So now it's down to Daniels and Maye. Stay tuned for the next round of 'insider elimination' with your host, mudhog.

[zCommander]

5 hours ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

I'm starting to think that it's becoming more likely that our next qb's name will begin with the letter "J".

 

 

 

You are going to base this on some executives who think they know Adam Peters really well and the way he thinks? lol 

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, mudhog said:

Well, you can scratch this particular insider off your list as being credible. Never trust a guy that wears a casual-wear suit with shoes and no socks. So now it's down to Daniels and Maye. Stay tuned for the next round of 'insider elimination' with your host, mudhog.

 

They have to talk about something to keep their click rates up, and our FO is clearly being incredibly tight-lipped. So it's just time to start making **** up, especially **** that flies in the face of conventional reason or logic. By next week they'll probably be saying we're trying to trade up to #1 for Joe Milton.

[e16bball]

11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Thanks for providing more context. I probably should have put another category in there for either drops or bad luck, considering that (IIRC) UNC had one of the highest receiver drop rates in college football last season.

 

I also should have taken a look at 2022 to see if there was a pattern. That's my bad for not digging deeper.

No harm done at all, I don’t think it’s your obligation to devote hours of your night to investigate each concerning data point you may come upon before sharing it 😂

 

Just didn’t want that information to fall into the hands of folks like Kurt Benkert and Kurt Warner, who are out there trying to influence our staff into not taking Maye. Likely as punishment for how our franchise treated their fellow Kurt, I can only assume.

[FootballZombie]

The number one thing I wanted in our Vet QB was the capacity to mentor.

This recent interview brought in someone who covered the Falcons and he had a bunch of great things to say about how Mariota did in that department.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/washington-commanders-marcus-mariota-rookie-mentor

 

"He was a very impactful leader," Flick told us. "He and Ridder had a very good working relationship with each other. I recall last year several times when you'd have Ridder mention, 'I learned this from Marcus, and I learned how to watch film. I learned how to read opponents and how they'd attack me,' and things of that nature. Just that process of learning how to be a pro. I think Ridder learned a lot from, and you could kind of see when he took over, he was very complimentary of the job that Marcus did in terms of that process of helping prepare him for that moment..."

 

I'm still pleased that we chose to bring him in and I think he can be a great influence on our new guy.

 

 

 

[Conn]

3 hours ago, Rex Tomb said:

I was listening to G&D and they had someone on today that was talking about the Pelissaro news.  Namely, that Jim Harbaugh is hoping like hell that either Daniels or Maye slip to #5 so he can trade back and get a haul so he's really pumping JJ.  The guest (Kedric Gohlston maybe?) said that if Harbaugh really thought JJ McCarthy was such a stud, why didn't he use him like that then.  They relied so much on their defense and the RBs to grind out the games that McCarthy was asked to do very little, but wouldn't Harbaugh want to use those supposed skills and talents (ala Andrew Luck) if he really thought they were there?  I thought that was a really interesting take and likely the best analysis I've heard on the situation since it grew legs.  

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills, I’ve been saying that exact thing on here for more than a month. I actually stopped because I thought I was getting annoying about it and no one who likes JJ would address it. The guy who showcased Andrew Luck doesn’t trust McCarthy to do anything. It’s suspicious. It doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t matter that they had a great D and running game—you don’t remove a tool from your toolbox for no reason. The very best case scenario is they didn’t think they were missing out on anything special by keeping responsibility out of JJ McCarthy’s hands most weeks. And that’s indictment enough. 

[mistertim]

20 minutes ago, Conn said:

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills, I’ve been saying that exact thing on here for more than a month. I actually stopped because I thought I was getting annoying about it and no one who likes JJ would address it. The guy who showcased Andrew Luck doesn’t trust McCarthy to do anything. It’s suspicious. It doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t matter that they had a great D and running game—you don’t remove a tool from your toolbox for no reason. The very best case scenario is they didn’t think they were missing out on anything special by keeping responsibility out of JJ McCarthy’s hands most weeks. And that’s indictment enough. 

 

It was all part of Harbaugh's multi-year master plan to limit what his stud JJ McCarthy could do so that he could then artificially lower JJ's draft stock a bit for the 2024 draft, which would allow Harbaugh to then take a HC job with a NFL team that had a top 5 pick but not #1 overall and could then draft the true stud QB of the group without moving up to the top spot.

 

It's brilliant in it's simplicity.

Edited March 26 by mistertim

[BMagic]

2 hours ago, illone said:

Daniel Jeremiah and Joel Klatt talked about this earlier today actually.  I'll paraphrase DJ here:

 

"You arent drafting what a kid did in school, you are drafting based on a projection of what you think he can become"

 

Why I have a tough time projecting Maye is his performance in big games, and two key areas that dont pass the eye ball test for me:

 

1. He tends to drift backwards and create his own pressure, making it tougher to throw kind of like Sam Howell does.  Not sure if its a coincidence they came from the same offense, but there are some wild similarities between the two when it comes to bailing on a play too early.  (JJ on the other hand hardly ever generates his own pressure, instead casually moves up or sideways in the pocket to create throwing lanes. I got the sense that he was always attacking, whereas Maye retreated early on way too many plays).

 

2. Footwork. In the games I watched he relied on his arm WAY too much. He doesnt set a consistent base and typically throws from awkward angles despite not needing to. Not sure how much of him you have watched, but his footwork is terrible and as of right now does not translate to any pro offense I am familiar with. Of course most NFL coaches will accept this and coach it out of him, but it seems risky to draft a player that high with such poor footwork and mechanics.  JJ McCarty on the other hand, even though he was not asked to do as much as Maye, his mechanics and footwork are light years ahead of Maye despite the vanity stats being much lower. I'd challenge you to go look at 3rd and 4th down conversion percentage, which is something NFL teams look at heavily.  Add in the fact that JJ won big games with his arm, converted key 3rd + 4th down plays with the game on the line, I think that is why you are seeing JJ rise up the boards because people are actually starting to realize how well he played even though he was not asked to throw it 40+ times per game like the other QBs.

 

Adding to the "big game" thing with Maye. He tends to fold and force throws in big games. Not saying its all his fault, football is a team game afterall,  but in two games vs Clemson which is one of the better defenses in his conference, he threw 53% with 1 TD and 3 Picks. Not good, and both of those games are scheduled at the end of the year when the pressure is the highest. Had he performed better in those game he could have elevated the program perhaps even into the playoffs.

 

One thing i have noticed recently is that the stats change depending on where you are obtaining the data. I've read many places that suggest Maye attacks the middle of the field, but Ive also seen plenty of numbers to suggest McCarthy was the best in that department. This is why I have a hard time relying on twitter posts with random numbers in them. Usually it's just cherry picked data to form a pre-built narrative.

 

In my case I have watched enough college and pro football to go beyond the numbers. Sips numbers are definitely compelling, and Id argue his highlight reel is even more compelling, but when you start looking closer at the tape and game situations is when I start to project this kid lower than most here.

 

 

I definitely agree concerning his footwork, but there have been many prospects coming into the league with sloppy footwork who end up figuring it out. The interviews with him will be key to gauge whether or not he's already working on it, since I find it hard to imagine he hasn't heard that critique about his game. Part of the projection will be figuring out if his footwork issues are what the coaches feel can be tweaked or if they're too far gone for them to want to try to rectify. Jordan Love had to sit for a while to get his footwork straight.

 

You see the improvisation, frozen rope throws, tight windows throws between the hashes, slides when running, and pretty much carrying a program on his shoulders. I saw someone posted the wins above replacement stat. Makes sense, UNC was smoked in their bowl game without him and the year prior he was incredible in their Bowl game against Oregon.

 

He just makes the types of throws that other guys can only dream of and if he figures out the footwork you're looking at a guy who could be Josh Allen/Herbert/a mobile Big Ben type QB.

 

I see more Alex Smith in McCarthy, but he wasn't asked to carry Michigan so perhaps I'm being unfair to him and his untapped potential. It'd be a bad use of an asset to draft him at 2 since other teams likely have him as the fourth QB on their boards, but you can't really trade down past 4-5 if you really like him. They'd be in a tough pickle if they like him over Maye/Daniels and would still likely have to stay put at 2 to ensure no other team jumped up to grab him.

Edited March 26 by BMagic

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

41 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

It was all part of Harbaugh's multi-year master plan to limit what his stud JJ McCarthy could do so that he could then artificially lower JJ's draft stock a bit for the 2024 draft, which would allow Harbaugh to then take a HC job with a NFL team that had a top 5 pick but not #1 overall and could then draft the true stud QB of the group without moving up to the top spot.

 

It's brilliant in it's simplicity.

Except he forgot to keep his mouth shut until after the draft.

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Except he forgot to keep his mouth shut until after the draft.

 

I see you've met Jim Harbaugh.     

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

I see you've met Jim Harbaugh.     

I’m familiar. Never been a fan.

[SoCalSkins]

28 minutes ago, BMagic said:

 

I definitely agree concerning his footwork, but there have been many prospects coming into the league with sloppy footwork who end up figuring it out. The interviews with him will be key to gauge whether or not he's already working on it, since I find it hard to imagine he hasn't heard that critique about his game. Part of the projection will be figuring out if his footwork issues are what the coaches feel can be tweaked or if they're too far gone for them to want to try to rectify. Jordan Love had to sit for a while to get his footwork straight.

 

You see the improvisation, frozen rope throws, tight windows throws between the hashes, slides when running, and pretty much carrying a program on his shoulders. I saw someone posted the wins above replacement stat. Makes sense, UNC was smoked in their bowl game without him and the year prior he was incredible in their Bowl game against Oregon.

 

He just makes the types of throws that other guys can only dream of and if he figures out the footwork you're looking at a guy who could be Josh Allen/Herbert/a mobile Big Ben type QB.

 

I see more Alex Smith in McCarthy, but he wasn't asked to carry Michigan so perhaps I'm being unfair to him and his untapped potential. It'd be a bad use of an asset to draft him at 2 since other teams likely have him as the fourth QB on their boards, but you can't really trade down past 4-5 if you really like him. They'd be in a tough pickle if they like him over Maye/Daniels and would still likely have to stay put at 2 to ensure no other team jumped up to grab him.

Maye looks like a cross between Drew Bledsoe and Josh Allen to me. Dude is a baller. 

[mistertim]

35 minutes ago, BMagic said:

 

I definitely agree concerning his footwork, but there have been many prospects coming into the league with sloppy footwork who end up figuring it out. The interviews with him will be key to gauge whether or not he's already working on it, since I find it hard to imagine he hasn't heard that critique about his game. Part of the projection will be figuring out if his footwork issues are what the coaches feel can be tweaked or if they're too far gone for them to want to try to rectify. Jordan Love had to sit for a while to get his footwork straight.

 

You see the improvisation, frozen rope throws, tight windows throws between the hashes, slides when running, and pretty much carrying a program on his shoulders. I saw someone posted the wins above replacement stat. Makes sense, UNC was smoked in their bowl game without him and the year prior he was incredible in their Bowl game against Oregon.

 

He just makes the types of throws that other guys can only dream of and if he figures out the footwork you're looking at a guy who could be Josh Allen/Herbert/a mobile Big Ben type QB.

 

I see more Alex Smith in McCarthy, but he wasn't asked to carry Michigan so perhaps I'm being unfair to him and his untapped potential. It'd be a bad use of an asset to draft him at 2 since other teams likely have him as the fourth QB on their boards, but you can't really trade down past 4-5 if you really like him. They'd be in a tough pickle if they like him over Maye/Daniels and would still likely have to stay put at 2 to ensure no other team jumped up to grab him.

 

One thing I've wondered about Maye's footwork being inconsistent and sometimes sloppy is how much of it may have been a product of so often being pressured so fast. That's honestly me wondering, not trying to make excuses...because I legitimately just don't know. Maybe someone like @KDawg who's an actual football coach could expand on it.

 

Even in the above clips you see so many times where he practically has guys in his lap within 1 or 2 seconds. I could see it potentially being tough to get your footwork consistent and improve on it when you're constantly under duress.

[illone]

2 hours ago, BMagic said:

I see more Alex Smith in McCarthy, but he wasn't asked to carry Michigan so perhaps I'm being unfair to him and his untapped potential. It'd be a bad use of an asset to draft him at 2 since other teams likely have him as the fourth QB on their boards, but you can't really trade down past 4-5 if you really like him. They'd be in a tough pickle if they like him over Maye/Daniels and would still likely have to stay put at 2 to ensure no other team jumped up to grab him.

 

 

Alex Smith is a fair comp for McCarthy. I project JJ's NFL career to be far superior (depending where he lands of course). I often wonder how things would have shaken out for Alex had San Fran taken Rodgers... alternate universe lol.

 

As for the untapped potential, that's what I am betting on. I'm guessing just like everyone else. For the record I try to make my guesses as educated as humanly possible. It's easy to see Maye's potential, JJ is a much tougher read which is why I dont fault anyone for rating him lower than I.  

 

Actually, he was asked to carry Michigan, just not in the same way Maye was asked. In the biggest moments in the biggest games, he delivered with his arm and made plays. I watched every single play of both playoff games. Against Bama he was down 10 and you just never felt any panic in the kid. He was going to find a way to move the ball and make plays. I was not shocked AT ALL when he converted a bunch of 3rd and longs and at least one 4th down as well. Miss any of those and they lose the game. 

 

I got the same vibe from Mahomes when he was down 10 in the Super Bowl. It was like, cool, I'll spot you ten points and then rip your heart out in the 4th quarter. 

 

Never in doubt.

 

I want that killer instinct in my QB. 

 

Llke Burrow, Mahomes, Brady, Montana.

That ice in your veins that you will not be denied.

 

Josh Allen does NOT have that. Neither does Herbert.

 

Talented, yes.

 

Killer instinct? 

 

Nahhh.

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

We won’t know who we are drafting until Roger announces it on draft day.

 

Plenty of noise the next month. 
 

No one knows what we are doing, including Adam; who will be making the pick

 

I have no doubt there maybe varying opinions inside the organization about who to draft, but Adam will make that choice.  He’ll of course get opinions from DQ and KK but Adam will

decide.  I don’t think Adam has reached a final conclusion and probably won’t until right before the draft on who he will select.

 

 

I see only 2 teams who will

be willing to do what it takes to move up and get qb 2, qb 3 or qb4. Denver and Minnesota.

 

I don’t see us willing to trade.  New England might, but if they do; they still likely to draft a qb like Nix or Pennix.

 

More than likely if Denver or Minny trade up, it’s to Arizona or Los Angeles Chargers for QB4.

 

I think all the talk about the Giants trading up for a qb is just talk.  They are going to run it with Jones for one more year. They may draft a qb in the later rounds to develop and take over.

[mistertim]

30 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

We won’t know who we are drafting until Roger announces it on draft day.

 

Plenty of noise the next month. 
 

No one knows what we are doing, including Adam; who will be making the pick

 

I have no doubt there maybe varying opinions inside the organization about who to draft, but Adam will make that choice.  He’ll of course get opinions from DQ and KK but Adam will

decide.  I don’t think Adam has reached a final conclusion and probably won’t until right before the draft on who he will select.

 

 

I see only 2 teams who will

be willing to do what it takes to move up and get qb 2, qb 3 or qb4. Denver and Minnesota.

 

I don’t see us willing to trade.  New England might, but if they do; they still likely to draft a qb like Nix or Pennix.

 

More than likely if Denver or Minny trade up, it’s to Arizona or Los Angeles Chargers for QB4.

 

I think all the talk about the Giants trading up for a qb is just talk.  They are going to run it with Jones for one more year. They may draft a qb in the later rounds to develop and take over.

 

Yeah I doubt a decision has been made, but I also doubt it's truly up in the air. I'd guess they're probably at about 70-75% at the moment. 

 

As far as the Giants, I think they definitely want a new QB, but they're essentially stuck with Danny Pennies until after this season, as there'd be about a $70 million dead cap hit for cutting him, and nobody is going to give up much for him in draft capital and take on his contract, so even in a trade the Giants would likely have to eat a ****load of money.

 

They could draft a rookie and let him sit behind Jones for a year I suppose.