The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[zCommander]

21 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

I keep reading this, but how many people are really saying trade down and build the team first ?

 

Yeah, the trade down and build doesn't make any sense now. That ship sailed when Howell was traded. 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

11 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Yeah, the trade down and build doesn't make any sense now. That ship sailed when Howell was traded. 

Sitting the new QB for a year/2 years also sailed when Howell was traded

[DogofWar1]

6 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

A JD is. Doctorate degree so you are a doctor Dr. Dark Acre, esq.

As a JD myself who is married to a MD, I tend to view JDs as a slightly lesser form of doctorate, haha.

[Dah-Dee]

45 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Yeah, I think that 20% cutoff is based on vibes too.  To me, the stat seems super noisy, to the point of it not being useful.  Zachary Krueger's QB list ranked by the P2S% is all over the place, with no coherent argument for better QBs being better in the stat based on the results he found.  Kind of surprised at how uninspiring the list of names who are the best in the stat was.

 

I think there is too much necessary context missing from the stat for it to be a meaningful tool.  I think it could occasionally correlate to a prospect having superior awareness, like it seems to do with Michael Penix.  But the fact that Carson Wentz is so high on the list tells me that this correlation is also weak, and you can't safely assume that the stat tells you about the playing style/tendencies of the QB.

 

Honestly, it feels to me like the stat really only gives a murky picture of the offensive architecture of the prospect's college team.

 

I agree, I love digging through stats/analytics and think they can be invaluable tools, but the P2S stats really bug me b/c I can't see where there's any kind of consistent correlation to overall QB quality/performance/success.  When I see Burrow and Jackson in the bottom 20, and then Rosen, Wentz and Jones in the top 10, with a very large pool/sample size, tells me the analytics either need to be seriously refined/reformulated, or more likely it's just a meaningless stat.

Edited March 22 by Dah-Dee

[rockluc]

15 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

He’s the only player in history who’s bobble head is actually proportional.

The bobble heads shoulders are way too broad if we’re going for an accurate depiction. 

[illone]

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm glad you brought up Shen.....I wonder what his analytics are saying about the QB's in the draft and how much weight it will hold?

Everyone has the same data so it depends how you parse it and what you value. 
 

Is 3rd down conversion % more important?

 

Pressure to sack?

 

big time throw %?

 

I believe Peters when he says the analytics are important but who the guy is (mental, teammate, leadership, and other soft skills and intangibles) weigh heaviest in their evaluation. 
 

 

 

[SoCalSkins]

26 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

As a JD myself who is married to a MD, I tend to view JDs as a slightly lesser form of doctorate, haha.

I have a JD as well. My brother is an MD. I tell him he works with his hands while I work with my mind. Physicians are basically human mechanics and the human body has been around for hundreds of thousands of years so it’s not very impressive or cutting edge.  I think you should make that argument to your wife as well. I’m sure it will go over well…

 

sorry for the off topic. Going back to the qb talk 

Edited March 22 by SoCalSkins

[DogofWar1]

Well there is a correlation between success and lower P2S.  It's noisy enough that I think you can give a fair bit of leeway BUT when people start approaching the higher ends I think that's where it starts to become a yellow/red flag.

 

Indeed that's why Jayden does concern me a bit.  He's not 21 or 22% but up at 24%.  It's high enough to start to raise concerns.

1 minute ago, SoCalSkins said:

I have a JD as well. My brother is an MD. I tell him he works with his hands while I work with my mind. Physicians are basically human mechanics and the human body has been around for hundreds of thousands of years so it’s not very impressive or cutting edge.  I think you should make that argument to your wife as well. I’m sure it will go over well…

 

sorry for the off topic. Going back to the qb talk 

Lol absolutely not.

 

We started dating at the end of her first year of med school when I was in 2L and having seen/compared med school vs law school and then seen residency, it's a whole different ballgame.

 

Early lawyering years weren't fun either but insofar as the "education" portion the MDing side looked wayyyyyyyy tougher to me.

[Dark Acre]

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

A JD is a doctorate degree so you are a doctor Dr. Dark Acre, esq.

 

 

A JD is kind of a doctorate but it is not the equivalent of a Ph.D.  People fresh out of law school (by gradumacating I mean) are some of the functionally dumbest people on the planet.  Saying they have doctorates is a real insult to people who spend multiple years *after* getting a master's and then do original research and defend a thesis to criticism by 3 profs whose goal is to F your life up (kinda like avoiding a pass rush and putting the ball into your receiver's hands, in the end zone, 50 yards away).  On top of that, calling yourself Dr. -- esq. is the ultimate mark of narcissism.  The hardest thing I did in law school was successfully, and without any spillage, shotgun a beer at the end of one of my 1st year exams.  Yet nearly 30 years (and countless Redskins disappointments) later, people still want to give me money to do what I do.  Kinda like coaching retreads.

[mac8887]

34 minutes ago, rockluc said:

The bobble heads shoulders are way too broad if we’re going for an accurate depiction. 

Don’t forget, in The Land Before Time, it was the longnecks that saved the day, not the 3 horn.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[wit33]

 

3 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

 

 

 

Not necessarily directed at you. 

 

I recall early concerns in the NBA about star players dominating the ball too much, potentially sidelining coaching strategies. Over the past 15-20 years, this "ball-hogging" behavior has become widely accepted. 

Similarly, are quarterbacks becoming ball hogs in football, and does it yield positive results? I wonder if elite QBs clashed with coordinators, particularly 5-10 years ago, regarding progressions and opting to check down for a safer play rather than riskier downfield passes or playing off script. Does this tendency result in more sacks for some quarterbacks?

 

Not too long ago, it was widely accepted coaching wisdom for quarterbacks to progress through their reads and, if the first-down throw wasn't available, to check it down or throw it away and punt. While this approach still holds value at times, quarterbacks increasingly rely on improvisational backyard football tendencies to personally seek out first downs at a much higher rate. Much like an NBA superstar. 

 

 

 

[BMagic]

I know his career own didn't pan out, but Mark Sanchez brings up some interesting points about Maye hooping in high school. Said that Maye averaging 11 boards reveals some things about his attitude/moxie. Rebounding comes down to desire and ability to box guys out, while requiring the toughness to compete with guys for the boards. Touches on him being able to throw with anticipation and not turning the ball over much on 3rd and 4th downs. Also shows that he needs to improve on decision-making.

 

 

[wit33]

6 minutes ago, BMagic said:

I know his career own didn't pan out, but Mark Sanchez brings up some interesting points about Maye hooping in high school. Said that Maye averaging 11 boards reveals some things about his attitude/moxie. Rebounding comes down to desire and ability to box guys out, while requiring the toughness to compete with guys for the boards. Touches on him being able to throw with anticipation and not turning the ball over much on 3rd and 4th downs. Also shows that he needs to improve on decision-making.

 

 

I must admit, as a supporter of JD, Maye really impressed me in the interviews I watched. He exhibited several positive traits such as confidence, self-deprecation, humility, good energy, engaging banter, competitiveness, and standing firm on his identity and play style when questioned about areas for improvement. Moreover, he displayed what appeared to be a genuine desire to achieve greatness.

 

Like that he’s multi-sport athlete, I lean towards baseball as the preferred sport for a quarterback, but love that he’s an all around athlete. 

[Est.1974]

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If we go QB at #2 I really hope we show some balls and plough back up for a LT

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, NOLA2DC said:

They all have shortcomings, and I have repeatedly said I think all three must sit at least half a year (Caleb will probably be a day-one starter the way the Bears are going). There is no universal metric that predicts QB success, despite the efforts of some people to try and find something no pro scout or front office guy has identified. Ultimately, it's a preference. As many people you see who say they like Drake, I can find who say they like Jaylen. You have a preference, and I have a mind, and I will roll whoever we choose. The whole mob mentality does not sway me. 

 

Thank you for completely and utterly dodging my entire point.

[Panninho]

Don't like that Breer says it feels more and more JD to Washington. He usually does not make up stuff.

There is still a lot of time, pro days and visits so I don't think a decision has been made either way but as of right now I just don't see how you take him over Maye. Kind of feels like a Tua over Herbert situation to me.  

 

If they would decide to go JD eventually then I am on board. They have my trust until they prove me wrong. But I'd be very anxious that in a couple of years everyone would talk about how the league (us) let Maye slip to the Patriots.

[BMagic]

35 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I must admit, as a supporter of JD, Maye really impressed me in the interviews I watched. He exhibited several positive traits such as confidence, self-deprecation, humility, good energy, engaging banter, competitiveness, and standing firm on his identity and play style when questioned about areas for improvement. Moreover, he displayed what appeared to be a genuine desire to achieve greatness.

 

Like that he’s multi-sport athlete, I lean towards baseball as the preferred sport for a quarterback, but love that he’s an all around athlete. 

 

I love Daniels' explosiveness and a younger me would have been pining for him just to be able to have my own version of Mike Vick to use in Madden 😂.

 

What concerns me are the sack rate and percentage of passes over the middle of the field, since those are usually top indicators of your game projecting well on the NFL level and hard to overcome when transitioning to the league. IMO it's easier to clean up Maye's footwork than adjust the mindset to throw over the MOF between the hashes, and in tighter windows with anticipation.

 

Daniels does go through his reads extremely well and has super crisp mechanics. If GMAP and Quinn/Kingsbury feel they can coach that part of his game up, I'm fine with the pick. But, if not, it could be Justin Fields/RG3 all over again and that's scary to think about if Maye becomes a hybrid of Allen/Herbert. Of course Daniels could end up being Lamar 2.0 and Maye could be stuck at a first/second year Josh Allen level as well. The toughest part of the job is projecting how these guys will fare on the next level. I don't even care much about Yards/TDs in College. It's more about seeing every type of throw at all field levels and evaluating their decision-making prowess, especially under duress.

 

Another thing I like about Maye is already having experience with having to carry a program on his shoulders. UNC was pretty terrible outside of him.

Edited March 22 by BMagic

[Est.1974]

When does the JJ Pro day get started then ?

[mistertim]

Just now, Panninho said:

Don't like that Breer says it feels more and more JD to Washington. He usually does not make up stuff.

There is still a lot of time, pro days and visits so I don't think a decision has been made either way but as of right now I just don't see how you take him over Maye. Kind of feels like a Tua over Herbert situation to me.  

 

If they would decide to go JD eventually then I am on board. They have my trust until they prove me wrong. But I'd be very anxious that in a couple of years everyone would talk about how the league (us) let Maye slip to the Patriots.

 

Absolutely nothing can be taken at face value at this point in the draft. Breer is stating a rando opinion, nothing more. None of these guys have any more clue than you or I as to who we're taking. But Jayden Daniels seems to be the "popular" groupthink pick for us, so we're hearing a lot of it. But also remember that running QBs almost always tend to get tons of hype and fly up mock draft boards as the draft nears. Every so often it ends up being right (Anthony Richardson) but much of the time it doesn't. And Daniels isn't in the same category of pure freak that Richardson is.

[Panninho]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Absolutely nothing can be taken at face value at this point in the draft. Breer is stating a rando opinion, nothing more. None of these guys have any more clue than you or I as to who we're taking. But Jayden Daniels seems to be the "popular" groupthink pick for us, so we're hearing a lot of it. But also remember that running QBs almost always tend to get tons of hype and fly up mock draft boards as the draft nears. Every so often it ends up being right (Anthony Richardson) but much of the time it doesn't. And Daniels isn't in the same category of pure freak that Richardson is.

 

Yeah, I get that but I don't think he is stating a random opinion. He is echoing what he is hearing from other people around the league. Now how much value that has, who knows. It might just be what these league people assume personally or they might hear something. But if I remember correctly, Breer originally said that he would think we lean Maye after the Combine and that has apparently switched now.

Like I said, I don't think any decision has been made and maybe right now it's a pure guessing game. But JD to us (whether justified or not) has gained some steam recently, there is no denying that. Hope you are right though. The closer we get to the draft, the more I lean Maye.

[DogofWar1]

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

It’s not his only criticism. It’s not even the one that bothers me the most. He has one of the weakest arms of the top 6 QB’s in the draft. He doesn’t throw over the middle or make tight window throws. His pressure to sack ratio is so bad, it would make him a historical outlier if he is successful. 
 

If Daniels had Drake Maye’s arm and made tight window throws, he’d be my solid QB2 if he weighed 190. 

Yep, pretty funny, if that was all I was worried about, I wouldn't be bothered at getting him instead of Maye, the fact that he doesn't throw to the middle of the field, that he doesn't make throws with anticipation, but waits for guys to get open FAR TOO MUCH, and that he tends to run/get sacked trying to run if his early read aint opening, and his pressure to sack ratio is fields level god awful (career wise, and in 4 of 5 seasons, the fifth just being below average, the other 4 being horrific),, and that he took 5 freaking years to have an OMG break out is what alarms me. There are an absolute litany of concerns with him. 

 

The fact that he could be in play at 2 is patently absurd to me when you compare the profiles, it's ridiculous and suggests a level of laziness that is mind boggling. 

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, Panninho said:

 

Yeah, I get that but I don't think he is stating a random opinion. He is echoing what he is hearing from other people around the league. Now how much value that has, who knows. It might just be what these league people assume personally or they might hear something. But if I remember correctly, Breer originally said that he would think we lean Maye after the Combine and that has apparently switched now.

Like I said, I don't think any decision has been made and maybe right now it's a pure guessing game. But JD to us (whether justified or not) has gained some steam recently, there is no denying that. Hope you are right though. The closer we get to the draft, the more I lean Maye.

 

It gained steam among groupthink draftnicks. None of them know who we're going to pick. So Breer's opinion has about as much value as any other sports analyst, twitter "expert" or draftnick...almost none. Our FO is incredibly tight lipped about what they're thinking.

 

Again, running QBs pretty much always gain steam as the draft nears. At this point analyst opinions are purely for entertainment purposes as of now, nothing more.

[Warhead36]

Our new FO doesnt leak anything. Noone knows jack.