The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[e16bball]

48 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

How about his completion rate over 70% for the season or his very low interceptions, or maybe his Td/int ration, or the fact that he is a national champion. When is the last time Drake Maye came close to a 70% completion rate on the season. How about the fact that JJ progressed in his second year while Drake Maye regressed. 

I feel like you must understand that when a team throws the ball less (and runs the ball more) than pretty much every other power conference team, the QB’s efficiency numbers are often going to be inflated. Especially when they have legitimate NFL pass game talent all over the field, which Michigan definitely did (in addition to McCarthy, at least two NFL WRs and two NFL TEs).

 

Perhaps for an example that we’re not all so close to at the moment, take the young Ben Roethlisberger. His first two seasons, the Steelers ranked first in the league in rushing attempts and last in the league in passing attempts. And Ben posted the highest adjusted completion and Y/A marks of his entire career in those seasons. In fact, by those metrics, he was basically better than any QB in the league not named Peyton Manning (and maybe Daunte Culpepper).
 

Did Roethlisberger become a worse QB as he got older? Of course not. They started to ask him to do more, started to lean on the passing game more, and with greater volume and defenses that weren’t just geared up to stop the run, the efficiency went down. 2014 Roethlisberger was a massively better QB than rookie Roethlisberger — he was a genuine superstar — but you wouldn’t know it from the efficiency numbers. They’d still tell you that the rookie’s stats were better. In fact, the rookie’s efficiency stats would have said he was the best QB in the league not named Peyton Manning (or maybe Daunte Culpepper).
 

This is a big part of what I mean when I keep saying he was playing a different game than everyone else. Throwing 22 passes a game while an elite run game is the center of your offense just isn’t nearly the same load that guys like Maye (35 attempts/game), Williams (32 attempts/game), or even Daniels (27 attempts/game) had to carry. Trying to make 1:1 comparisons between them based on efficiency stats is just absolutely ignoring that reality.

[Dah-Dee]

8 minutes ago, e16bball said:

take the young Ben Roethlisberger. His first two seasons, the Steelers ranked first in the league in rushing attempts and last in the league in passing attempts. And Ben posted the highest adjusted completion and Y/A marks of his entire career in those seasons.

 

This is very relevant to discussion of McCarthy. I looked into the pass/run balance for top QB prospects earlier, and was surprised at the discrepancy. LSU was 51/49, UNC 50/50, USC 58/42.... and Michigan was 40/60 (and even that was an improvement from 2022, when it was 39/61).

 

McCarthy was handing off (or running) 60% of the time. Passing plays were... a little bit of a surprise for opponents lol.

Edited March 2 by Dah-Dee

[illone]

33 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Incredibly unimpressive from an NFL standpoint.  Struggled with velocity on NfL throws.  Nothing in the performance remotely said “NFL QB.”  
 

I think it’s different when you don’t watch college football.  Which I don’t.  I didn’t see any NFl throws or concepts or anything that made me think he would be a top NFL QB.

 

Again, I could be wrong.  I haven’t watched a minute of Maye, Williams or Daniels. 
 

But to be fair I could watch the other three and think they stink too.  But the one I watched, mostly by accident, was McCarthy and I was massively unimpressed. 

 

 

You have to temporarily change your handle to Voice_of_Absurdity when you make replies like this...

 

Once you watch some of the other games, you can change it back 😂

 

At least watch some of the throws vs Bama. This was a game where he was playing from behind for a good stretch and you just had this feeling that he would find a way to deliver.  And he did.

 

 

[Dah-Dee]

Come on illone, you're killin' me Smalls! I was excited to watch that clip of JJ... and the first play was an interception into coverage. *SIGH* 😋

Edited March 2 by Dah-Dee

[FootballZombie]

*Shoves kid back into fight pit*

 

 

[clskinsfan]

20 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

when Michigan did rely on McCarthys arm

Not once did they have to rely on McCarthys arm to win a game. In fact they won some games in spite of his mistakes. Bowling Green comes to mind. Where he threw 3 picks and MI still won 31-6. I like a lot of what I have seen of McCarthy on tape. But imo he doesnt compare to Maye. Especially physically. 

[88Comrade2000]

21 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

I also think part of the reason is that even with the increased salary cap, some teams are still in such a squeeze they'd have to do some seriously juggling to fit even a mid-priced FA QB in.

 

Pittsburgh, for example, looks to currently only have $4.3M in effective cap space including whatever cuts happened today, Seahawks have $7M. Broncos are $20M over the cap, Saints $21M over. Giants and Jets also in bottom half of league for effective cap space available.

 

So I think there's gonna be quite the fight over rookie QBs in this draft.

Also, Kirk and Russ aren’t looking to be transitional qbs until a rookie is ready.

 

Kirk is looking for what will likely be his final contract as a starter. Russ also said he wants two more SuperBowls; he’s not going anywhere to babysit.

 

Kirk probably gets his final contract but Russ going to find no one will want to commit to him and he likely has to wait for someone to get injured and then he’ll have to prove it before anyone gives him one more deal.

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

Come on illone, you're killin' me Smalls! I was excited to watch that clip of JJ... and the first play was an interception into coverage. *SIGH* 😋

 

Yeah I'm trying to figure out if he posted the right clip. That thing was full of incompletions, screens, shallow crossers, and a couple of short TD throws to wide open guys.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, illone said:

You have to temporarily change your handle to Voice_of_Absurdity when you make replies like this...

 

Once you watch some of the other games, you can change it back 😂

 

At least watch some of the throws vs Bama. This was a game where he was playing from behind for a good stretch and you just had this feeling that he would find a way to deliver.  And he did.

I have absolutely no intention of watching any more college football than I did.  And I had really no intention of watching that.  

 

I watched one game.  It was massively unimpressive from an NFL perspective.  If he had better games, that's great. 

 

As I've said over and over, I don't care who they draft.  I might be the only person on the board who doesn't even have a leaning.  I don't think it's going to be McCarthy because I think what's happening is a MASSIVE publicity push, which in the end is completely irrelevant.  The idiot draftniks are doing what they do. That could be wrong.  Maybe he's that good.  I wouldn't know.  I'm not going to try and find out.  

 

Evaluating QBs is almost a fool's errand for even the best GMs.  The idiot Draftniks get it wrong more than right.  Even Kiper, who founded the industry, was wrong more than right.  The GMs are wrong more than right.  

 

What I have become rather good at through the years is recognizing a sell job by agents and coaches.  I think both Daniels and McCarthy are getting the sell job at the moment.  And it's working fans into a lather.  I could be wrong, but I'm not going to be even remotely surprised if the draft goes Williams, Maye, something unexpected and a QB is not #3, and then everybody is going to lose their minds.  

 

 

[illone]

7 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

Come on illone, you're killin' me Smalls! I was excited to watch that clip of JJ... and the first play was an interception into coverage. *SIGH* 😋

 

😂

 

Quick, strike that from your memory and only look at the 4th quarter throws.

 

[alaroche04]

Maye (and CW’s) with Michigan or LSU’s weapons would have absolutely dominated.
 

Daniels and JJ are a lot closer to me than Daniels and the two top QBs. McCarthy has everything I’m looking for in a QB prospect.

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Also, Kirk and Russ aren’t looking to be transitional qbs until a rookie is ready.

Kirk, you're right.    Kirk is going to be the #1 FA QB by a mile.  He's a top 10 starter in the league, and he's hitting FA for the second time.  It's wild.  

 

Russ might not have a choice but to be a transitional QB. 

 

There is enough baggage around Russ, and he didn't play that well, he is not going to get a "definite starter" role.  He's going to probably have to take a job to compete for playing time or be a transitional guy.  Or just retire and bang Ciara and live the life of the rich.  Which wouldn't be the worst possible outcome for him, to be honest.  And even with his last 2 years in Denver, I still think he's probably a HOF QB.  He was arguably on of the top 5 QBs in the league for a decade, and he has 2 SB appearances and one win.  

[mac8887]

18 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I feel like you must understand that when a team throws the ball less (and runs the ball more) than pretty much every other power conference team, the QB’s efficiency numbers are often going to be inflated. Especially when they have legitimate NFL pass game talent all over the field, which Michigan definitely did (in addition to McCarthy, at least two NFL WRs and two NFL TEs).

 

Perhaps for an example that we’re not all so close to at the moment, take the young Ben Roethlisberger. His first two seasons, the Steelers ranked first in the league in rushing attempts and last in the league in passing attempts. And Ben posted the highest adjusted completion and Y/A marks of his entire career in those seasons. In fact, by those metrics, he was basically better than any QB in the league not named Peyton Manning (and maybe Daunte Culpepper).
 

Did Roethlisberger become a worse QB as he got older? Of course not. They started to ask him to do more, started to lean on the passing game more, and with greater volume and defenses that weren’t just geared up to stop the run, the efficiency went down. 2014 Roethlisberger was a massively better QB than rookie Roethlisberger — he was a genuine superstar — but you wouldn’t know it from the efficiency numbers. They’d still tell you that the rookie’s stats were better. In fact, the rookie’s efficiency stats would have said he was the best QB in the league not named Peyton Manning (or maybe Daunte Culpepper).
 

This is a big part of what I mean when I keep saying he was playing a different game than everyone else. Throwing 22 passes a game while an elite run game is the center of your offense just isn’t nearly the same load that guys like Maye (35 attempts/game), Williams (32 attempts/game), or even Daniels (27 attempts/game) had to carry. Trying to make 1:1 comparisons between them based on efficiency stats is just absolutely ignoring that reality.

Yes his numbers will be inflated a little due to his lack of attempts, but that doesn’t change the fact that everytime the ball was in his hands on third down he was able to make the play, without turning the ball over, in fact he did it so well that his team won a national championship.

 

you guys try to bash these guys by saying they haven’t shown enough of what you want to see, even though they have shown you they can, without showing you they can, these same arguments where used by all the guys bashing Daniels as well.

 

While Maye on the other hand has shown that he can do things, while showing that he can’t do the same things, moment to moment, game to game. No other qb that will be selected in the first 2 rounds of this draft have shown anywhere near the inconsistent play that Maye has shown this last year.

 

you are giving a pass to an inconsistent player because you can’t tell if the others might be more inconsistent even though they have shown you zero reason that will be the case. 
 

I completely understand the love for Maye, I get it, he’s big, strong, mobile, canon for an arm. But in his 2 seasons as a starter he has been inconsistent pretty much game to game other than a few game stretch to start this last season, and that was against very weak competition, then on top of that not only did he regress this season, he regressed from where he was at the beginning of the season at a time when your offense should be progressing and really starting to click. 
 

I would be fine with Maye, I think he has all the tools to be great, definitely not my first choice, but I could get behind the pick, you guys are talking him up like the next Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. He is nowhere near the polished player Herbert was coming out, and It could be years before another Josh Allen is found, how many times was a big, strong, mobile, huge arm, but inconsistent an inaccurate prone QBs drafted before one finally worked out in Josh Allen? Nearly every draft. 

[ThatNFLChick]

6 minutes ago, alaroche04 said:

Maye (and CW’s) with Michigan or LSU’s weapons would have absolutely dominated.
 

Daniels and JJ are a lot closer to me than Daniels and the two top QBs. McCarthy has everything I’m looking for in a QB prospect.

 

Why do people keep saying this? Maye did not dominate when he played absolutely inferior competiton like UVA.

[FootballZombie]

Its fair to ponder how much better some guys would look with better surrounding talent.

 

I don't weight that as a 1:1 offering vs guys who had that talent and subsequently balled the F out tho.

 

 

On one side you have a prospect who might dominate. On the other you have a prospect who did. Not an equal comparison in my book, at least on that front.

 

 

Being able to find success despite support is an achievement in its own right tho, but that's a diff argument.

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, mac8887 said:

 

I would be fine with Maye, I think he has all the tools to be great, definitely not my first choice, but I could get behind the pick, you guys are talking him up like the next Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. He is nowhere near the polished player Herbert was coming out, and It could be years before another Josh Allen is found, how many times was a big, strong, mobile, huge arm, but inconsistent an inaccurate prone QBs drafted before one finally worked out in Josh Allen? Nearly every draft. 

 

This is complete and utter revisionist history. Herbert had plenty of questions and dings when it came to how well his game would translate to the NFL (including, like Maye, some issues with his footwork going downhill when pressured). At least as many as Maye. That's why he wasn't taken in the top 3.

[mac8887]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not once did they have to rely on McCarthys arm to win a game. In fact they won some games in spite of his mistakes. Bowling Green comes to mind. Where he threw 3 picks and MI still won 31-6. I like a lot of what I have seen of McCarthy on tape. But imo he doesnt compare to Maye. Especially physically. 

Nobody is comparing McCarthy to Maye physically, that is a straw man argument. Of course Maye has the edge when it comes to traits. And yes McCarthy had 1 really bad game, and one in which he didn’t throw, he was injured against penn state and still tougher it out by the way, but that 1 bad game doesn’t change the fact the Maye had even more bad games.

 

Mechanically,McCarthy is better, he is more accurate, he is much better on 3rd down, Maye was an awful 49% on 3rd down. He didn’t struggle with inconsistency in his play the way Maye did.

 

Maye has amazing boom potential but his bust potential is up their as well.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

This is complete and utter revisionist history. Herbert had plenty of questions and dings when it came to how well his game would translate to the NFL (including, like Maye, some issues with his footwork going downhill when pressured). At least as many as Maye. That's why he wasn't taken in the top 3.

Yeah. Herbert had serious accuracy concerns when he came out. I honestly cant wait until this thread gets closed once we have our guy. 

[NOLA2DC]

17 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Kirk, you're right.    Kirk is going to be the #1 FA QB by a mile.  He's a top 10 starter in the league, and he's hitting FA for the second time.  It's wild.  

 

Russ might not have a choice but to be a transitional QB. 

 

There is enough baggage around Russ, and he didn't play that well, he is not going to get a "definite starter" role.  He's going to probably have to take a job to compete for playing time or be a transitional guy.  Or just retire and bang Ciara and live the life of the rich.  Which wouldn't be the worst possible outcome for him, to be honest.  And even with his last 2 years in Denver, I still think he's probably a HOF QB.  He was arguably on of the top 5 QBs in the league for a decade, and he has 2 SB appearances and one win.  

I was with you until you said to top 10 starter, maybe top 15 mid tier respectable. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert, Hurts, Watson, Stafford, CJ, Love,  Trevor.

Also, Kirk's playoff record  causes a problem 

Edited March 2 by NOLA2DC

[mac8887]

13 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

This is complete and utter revisionist history. Herbert had plenty of questions and dings when it came to how well his game would translate to the NFL (including, like Maye, some issues with his footwork going downhill when pressured). At least as many as Maye. That's why he wasn't taken in the top 3.

That is just not true, Herbert was elite at going through his reads fast, diagnosing the play and making the right throw to the right person. Yes they both might have had footwork issues, but he was a Maxwell award finalist and a Heisman finalist, and winner of the William v trophy for best student athlete. The dude is brilliant and it showed when it came to his processing ability. He was also more polished and ready to take on the complexity of an NFL season.

 

Maye ends up running for his life a lot because he will hold the ball getting stuck on reads, and has accuracy concerns that Herbert did not and does not have. If he can clean those up, then his boom potential is through the roof, but those are big ifs. Sam got to sit for a year, and it did nothing to help him get through his reads faster, and get the ball out of his hand quicker, some QBs can over come that but most can’t. That’s why the bust potential is so high on all Quarterbacks coming into the league.

Edited March 2 by mac8887

[mistertim]

Just now, mac8887 said:

That is just not true, Herbert was elite at going through his reads fast, diagnosing the play and making the right throw to the right person. Yes they both might have had footwork issues, but he was a Maxwell award winner and a Heisman finalist. The dude is brilliant and it showed when it came to his processing ability. He was also more polished and ready to take on the complexity of an NFL season.

 

Maye ends up running for his life a lot because he will hold the ball getting stuck on reads, and has accuracy concerns that Herbert did not and does not have. If he can clean those up, then his boom potential is through the roof, but those are big ifs. Sam got to sit for a year, and it did nothing to help him get through his reads faster, and get the ball out of his hand quicker, some QBs can over come that but most can’t. That’s why the bust potential is so high on all Quarterbacks coming into the league.

 

If what you're saying is true, then Herbert would never ever have made it out of the top 3 (and plenty of people at the time thought he was a bit over-drafted at 6) It's revisionist history. There were plenty of concerns about his game. You're basically just throwing **** at the wall at this point.

 

As far as Maye running for his life, a lot of that had to do with...wait for it...being behind a crappy offensive line. Who would have thought?

[Skinsinparadise]

More smoke about the Giants and Maye

 

 

 

[mac8887]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

If what you're saying is true, then Herbert would never ever have made it out of the top 3 (and plenty of people at the time thought he was a bit over-drafted at 6) It's revisionist history. There were plenty of concerns about his game. You're basically just throwing **** at the wall at this point.

 

As far as Maye running for his life, a lot of that had to do with...wait for it...being behind a crappy offensive line. Who would have thought?

The UNC line was stacked compared to almost every defensive line that they played against, you can compare them to alabamas and georgias and call them crap to them but they weren’t playing those guys weak in and weak out, they were playing against lesser talent most of the time. Mack brown has done well to really boost the takent at UNC, especially compared to most schools in that conference. 
 

 

[MartinC]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Peters in that Grant interview flat out said they'd be considering some high end FAs and bargain basement FAs, too.

 

I get the rhetoric about we want to build in the draft and not via FA.  Who doesn't say that?  Also, hey we aren't going to go nuts and spend big in FA.  Also most say that, too

 

But I get the sense at a minimum they will play it medium in FA. 

We have a lot of needs. QB, X WR, TE, OT, LG, 3rd down back and maybe C. On defense Edge, CB, FS, off the ball backer. We need depth everywhere.

 

QB is coming via the draft. Strong draft for OT and WR as well. I think we will try to spend premium free agent dollars on Edge, OT, OG and CB. Then we look for good market deals at backer, safety and maybe TE (doesn’t seem like a great draft at TE).

[Dah-Dee]

25 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

Mechanically,McCarthy is better, he is more accurate, he is much better on 3rd down, Maye was an awful 49% on 3rd down.

 

ESPN says McCarthy was 67% on 3rd downs in 2023, for 792 yds and 6 TD; Maye 60%, 729, 5. And Maye ran for around 200 yards, 2 TD on 3rd downs. McCarthy ran for, well... 23 on 22 carries, 0 TD. And one of those carries was 22 yds.

 

So I guess McCarthy was 'better'?  Maybe? But Maye wasn't "awful." Not sure where the 49% came from.

 

 

Edited March 2 by Dah-Dee