The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

11 hours ago, MrJL said:

we beat the Eagles once with the the type of team Rivera and Mayhew want to build.

The stars aligned that night and everything went out way for once.  Only a man who prefers to part from his cash would bet on that happening more often than not.

[Skinsinparadise]

The Giants have owned us long before Daniel Jones.

 

And yes if we judge the Giants based on their games against us, they are world beaters.  

 

2 of our players, I recall Wynn was one of them who played for both teams said its part of the culture of the Giants to own Washington.  They expect to beat us.

 

I recall one of their beat guys say after they lost to Washington one season it was the low point of the year because they always expect to beat Washington.

 

I recall Andrel Rolle saying the Giants if they played Washington would beat them 99 times out of 100.

 

It's far from just a Daniel Jones thing.

 

Mara said of all teams in the NFC East, Washington is the one he enjoys beating the most

 

like I said if you watched the Giants play against the other two teams vying for that playoff spot this season -- the Lions, Seattle, the Giants looked like hot garbage.  Other teams have no problem scoring against them.      

 

It's really pathetic on this team's end as to how the Giants are basically their daddy.  And I've whined about this on game threads long before Daniel Jones got here.

 

Does that mean the Giants are really good just about every year and we just don't recognize it because we are homers?  Nope IMO.  It means they own this rivalry.  Just like Indy even when they were better couldn't beat Jax in Jax.  Patriots struggiling in Miami.  It's our version of that but much worse.

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

The stars aligned that night and everything went out way for once.  Only a man who prefers to part from his cash would bet on that happening more often than not.

 

I like Rivera more than most but Mayhew in particular built a monster with those comments about the run game.

 

Rivera's public comments last off season mostly contradicted the run game is king.  He usually went back to the run game when referencing their peak during the previous season but that's a different thing.

 

Beat guys have also said the run game stuff is BS from what they heard behind the scenes in the strict sense last off season and aren't buying that's what he believes now.  That is that they truly believe that's the best formula.  

 

But its confusing because they do believe its the best formula when you got questionable QB play and that's an entirely different point.  Or in this case to protect a rookie learning the ropes.  But they don't add that disclaimer publicly.

 

Not saying you can't win with the run game leading the way.  But you will get killed more often than not when facing a team who can throw the ball well ala lets say Cincy.  We ran that formula in 2018 with Alex, it worked to an extent but not against a hot Matt Ryan or hot Drew Brees. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Bottom line is that it doesn’t matter how explosive your offense is. If weather gets tough and you have no run game you lose. See: Buffalo.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Bottom line is that it doesn’t matter how explosive your offense is. If weather gets tough and you have no run game you lose. See: Buffalo.

 

Agree.  IMO you need both.  The more running version of the Chiefs pre-Mahomes would get knocked out of the playoffs.  Ditto Ravens.  Ditto Titans.

 

Didn't shock me the Bills lost to Cincy, i talked about it a week before on the game thread.  Josh Allen is a stud but he has some variance in his game with ups and downs.  Burrow on the other hand is a surgeon, cold blooded killer, especially in big games.  

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

And like I said earlier and during the season, I do believe in Marty Ball run game leading the way with a young learning QB or average or worst QB play.  it's smart and makes sense.

 

People touting Daboll. Basically that was his calling card to take some onus off Daniel Jones.  He ran the same script.  The main difference with our version is the RPOs and using Daniel Jones' legs as well.   Falcons did the same with Mariota.  

 

I am advocating they build the roster to play like this on the draft thread.  So i am 100% on board with the strategy of ground and pound.  But I don't believe and I am pretty confident they likely don't believe that if you have a top 10 QB you play Marty Ball to win. 

 

And don't get me wrong I do like to lean into the run game to help the pass no matter what.  I am not a Mike Martz old school Rams offense guy.  But as far as an over the top Marty Ball style, I like it in the context of helping a young QB or average to below average QB play.  But I'd tone that down, and throw the ball much more than I would with Daniel Jones if for example if I had Mahomes, Burrow, etc.  

 

All the teams left in the playoffs are strongly ranked passing teams based on DVOA. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Didn't shock me the Bills lost to Cincy, i talked about it a week before on the game thread.  Josh Allen is a stud but he has some variance in his game with ups and downs.  Burrow on the other hand is a surgeon, cold blooded killer, especially in big games.  

 

That wasn't really about the QBs.  For once we got a match up where both QBs were equally elite, and if anything, Josh Allen might be a little better of a player at this point in their careers.  The difference in that game was the Bengals were a better team.  They had a dynamic run game that provided balance and helped a shaky OL mask some protection deficiencies.  A good run game makes the offense so much harder to defend.  And Ron Rivera is speaking an old football truth when he talks about establishing the run game being necessary to lead your offense.  I get what you're doing to defend his philosophy on this, but I think you are granting his critics that they are right to criticize a run centric philosophy when they aren't.  A powerful run game has led to winning at every level of the sport, always has, and always will.  And KDawg is right that the advantage of a strong run game becomes even more pronounced in bad winter weather games because there is only so much that even elite human beings can do in bad footing in the cold.  You need a competent passing game to provide balance no doubt, but if you can run on anybody and force a defense to account for the run first, it is so much easier to throw on them.  It's night and day how that slows the rush and creates hesitation and space in the secondary.

 

And the other big difference in yesterday's was that the Bengals got heavy pressure with their front four.  Hendrickson is an elite edge player and he absolutely lit up those Buffalo left side linemen, and Hubbard is not a very big step down from him.  Meanwhile the Bills got zero pressure on Burrow.  Much easier to play like a stud when you get to play 7 on 7.  The Bills pass rush fell apart when they lost Von Miller, and it's clear in hindsight that they were too reliant on a single aging pass rusher for their pressure.

[KDawg]

The Bills OL is just as porous as ours and they have a worse running game. Our receivers are better as a whole. Their TE is better.

 

Their offense basically amounted to getting to third down and hoping their elite QB could make a play off schedule as teams did what they could to take Diggs away (good luck…).

[Koolblue13]

It came down to run game and secondarys.

[Skinsinparadise]

40 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

That wasn't really about the QBs.  For once we got a match up where both QBs were equally elite, and if anything, Josh Allen might be a little better of a player at this point in their careers.  The difference in that game was the Bengals were a better team.  They had a dynamic run game that provided balance and helped a shaky OL mask some protection deficiencies.  A good run game makes the offense so much harder to defend.  And Ron Rivera is speaking an old football truth when he talks about establishing the run game being necessary to lead your offense.  I get what you're doing to defend his philosophy on this, but I think you are granting his critics that they are right to criticize a run centric philosophy when they aren't.  A powerful run game has led to winning at every level of the sport, always has, and always will.  And KDawg is right that the advantage of a strong run game becomes even more pronounced in bad winter weather games because there is only so much that even elite human beings can do in bad footing in the cold.  You need a competent passing game to provide balance no doubt, but if you can run on anybody and force a defense to account for the run first, it is so much easier to throw on them.  It's night and day how that slows the rush and creates hesitation and space in the secondary.

 

And the other big difference in yesterday's was that the Bengals got heavy pressure with their front four.  Hendrickson is an elite edge player and he absolutely lit up those Buffalo left side linemen, and Hubbard is not a very big step down from him.  Meanwhile the Bills got zero pressure on Burrow.  Much easier to play like a stud when you get to play 7 on 7.  The Bills pass rush fell apart when they lost Von Miller, and it's clear in hindsight that they were too reliant on a single aging pass rusher for their pressure.

 

Cincy dominated yesterday so my point wasn't it was all Burrow.  But yes i do think he outplayed Allen and i do like him in big games over just about anyone.  lol, I wish I transcibed my conversation with my brother in law before the game but i made the point to him in advance of this game.  So its possible on my end its a case to an extent of believing is seeing.  but yo my eyes, Burrow getting a whopping 20 points higher in his QBR score for yesterday versus Allen is well justified.

 

My point is at least when I watched the two QBs, Burrow hits me the more steady performer.   Josh Allen led the league in turnovers this year.  He's a freak, don't get me wrong.  Yesterday, only one pick and granted not a bad one, had an almost fumble, ruled fumble than overruled. 

 

But my point is Burrow is a steadier QB and I just love watching him in big games.  He reminds me of Montana on that front. Ice in his veins. 

 

 

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2023/01/21/buffalo-bills-vs-cincinnati-bengals-josh-allen-fix-turnovers-playoffs/69821745007/

Josh Allen, Bills offense need to fix turnover woes to advance past Bengals in playoffs

Praying for a turnover-free game may be a good start, but what McDermott is going to need more than anything is for Allen to rein in as best he can his season-long propensity for putting the ball in harm’s way.

 

...We all know the Allen Experience is a thrill ride every week, and the fantastic plays that he makes far outnumber the ones that leave you scratching your head. However, at this time of year, all it takes is one or two bad decisions and Buffalo’s season could be blown to smithereens.

That almost happened last week when he had three turnovers in the 34-31 wild-card victory over Miami — two interceptions and a lost fumble that was returned for a touchdown — and McDermott admitted that the Bills dodged a bullet and were fortunate to move on.

 

Yeah, that’s not the way to live your life if you want to win games, it’s proven in the NFL,” he said of the turnover issues.

The Bills now have 30 turnovers in their 17 games counting the postseason and Allen is responsible for 22 — a league-high 16 interceptions plus six lost fumbles. And there could have been many more because he has put the ball on the ground an incredible 16 times and the Bills have been lucky to recover 10 of those.

 

Pro Football Focus has a stat called turnover-worthy plays defined as “a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.” Allen tied with Seattle’s Geno Smith for the most in the league during the regular season with 29, then had three more against Miami. Those are in addition to the 22 actual turnovers.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

It came down to run game and secondarys.

 

OK lol I guess i am the only one who is blown away by Burrow in these big games.   Like I said I am just a big Burrow fan boy.  He had a lot of help yesterday.  But I'll accept that i am in the minority here that he was the most important component yesterday to the win.   No doubt it was a complete win from Cincy, not arguing otherwise.  But yeah I do think Burrow outplayed Allen and not just because of their supporting cast.  I trust Burrow over Allen in a game like that.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Cincy dominated yesterday so my point wasn't it was all Burrow.  But yes i do think he outplayed Allen and i do like him in big games over just about anyone.  lol, I wish I transcibed my conversation with my brother in law before the game but i made the point to him in advance of this game.  So its possible on my end its a case to an extent of believing is seeing.  but yo my eyes, Burrow getting a whopping 20 points higher in his QBR score for yesterday versus Allen is well justified.

 

My point is at least when I watched the two QBs, Burrow hits me the more steady performer.   Josh Allen led the league in turnovers this year.  He's a freak, don't get me wrong.  Yesterday, only one pick and granted not a bad one, had an almost fumble, ruled fumble than overruled. 

 

But my point is Burrow is a steadier QB and I just love watching him in big games.  He reminds me of Montana on that front. Ice in his veins. 

 

 

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2023/01/21/buffalo-bills-vs-cincinnati-bengals-josh-allen-fix-turnovers-playoffs/69821745007/

Josh Allen, Bills offense need to fix turnover woes to advance past Bengals in playoffs

Praying for a turnover-free game may be a good start, but what McDermott is going to need more than anything is for Allen to rein in as best he can his season-long propensity for putting the ball in harm’s way.

 

...We all know the Allen Experience is a thrill ride every week, and the fantastic plays that he makes far outnumber the ones that leave you scratching your head. However, at this time of year, all it takes is one or two bad decisions and Buffalo’s season could be blown to smithereens.

That almost happened last week when he had three turnovers in the 34-31 wild-card victory over Miami — two interceptions and a lost fumble that was returned for a touchdown — and McDermott admitted that the Bills dodged a bullet and were fortunate to move on.

 

Yeah, that’s not the way to live your life if you want to win games, it’s proven in the NFL,” he said of the turnover issues.

The Bills now have 30 turnovers in their 17 games counting the postseason and Allen is responsible for 22 — a league-high 16 interceptions plus six lost fumbles. And there could have been many more because he has put the ball on the ground an incredible 16 times and the Bills have been lucky to recover 10 of those.

 

Pro Football Focus has a stat called turnover-worthy plays defined as “a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.” Allen tied with Seattle’s Geno Smith for the most in the league during the regular season with 29, then had three more against Miami. Those are in addition to the 22 actual turnovers.

 

 

 

OK lol I guess i am the only one who is blown away by Burrow in these big games.   Like I said I am just a big Burrow fan boy.  He had a lot of help yesterday.  But I'll accept that i am in the minority here that he was the most important component yesterday to the win.   No doubt it was a complete win from Cincy, not arguing otherwise.  But yeah I do think Burrow outplayed Allen and not just because of their supporting cast.  I trust Burrow over Allen in a game like that.

 

 

Burrow is absolutely phenomenal. But they have built around him well as well.

 

I think Burrow is the best QB in the NFL right now aside from Mahomes. 
 

I think Allen is close. But he doesn’t have near enough around him.

 

The Bengals beat the Bills as a team. Burrow being a better QB is relevant but it’s close enough that outside factors were the difference.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Burrow is absolutely phenomenal. But they have built around him well as well.

 

I think Burrow is the best QB in the NFL right now aside from Mahomes. 
 

I think Allen is close. But he doesn’t have near enough around him.

 

The Bengals beat the Bills as a team. Burrow being a better QB is relevant but it’s close enough that outside factors were the difference.

 

I can run with that.  That was basically the point I was trying to make with the exception of I think he was a big part of the win yesterday.  I am blown away by Burrow.  He's playing on the road against a hostile crowd in the snow and he was still surgeon level accurate, unbelievable to me.   But like I said i was already big time sold.

 

Cincy dominated the trenches.  I saw all the tweets during the game from national media types touting the Cincy D coordinator as a future head coach.  So its not like I was oblivious to what else Cincy had cooking but to me yes Burrow was still the key.  It's rare for me to believe any win is all about the QB, and yesterday wasn't an exception.  but yeah i would take Burrow over Allen and yes i do think he outplayed him yesterday in the mix of other things going on.

 

I do think he's better than Josh Allen.  Some argue otherwise.   To me Burrow is the ultimate gamer QB.  He takes me back to Montana. 

As for the O line, Bengals were missing three starters yesterday.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

I don't think Burrow is better than Allen.  He's smarter and more accurate, but Allen can do a lot of things that Burrow can't.  That beast mode touchdown drive Allen led being one example.  No other QB in the upper echelon of the league can take two defensive linemen trying to tackle him on a ride towards the end zone.  Take the surrounding teams out of it, and we're looking at a first tier of QBs where Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert are all roughly equal in being the elite players at the position, with Trevor Lawrence probably joining them next year and Brady, Rodgers, Murray, and Jackson being just a hair below them at this point in their careers.  Maybe Mahomes and Allen are a little better by dent of experience, but it's close enough that the difference is trivial and they will be a push in match ups.  And the outcomes of the games between them will be determined by the quality of the supporting casts.  It's much easier for Burrow to look better and play better than Allen in a game when their run offense is gashing Buffalo for 8 yard gains and picking up big first downs and he's facing zero pressure.  But he's not individually better than Allen to any meaningful degree, and almost no one believed that before yesterday's game.  I still don't believe it now.

[kingdaddy]

54 minutes ago, KDawg said:

The Bills OL is just as porous as ours and they have a worse running game. Our receivers are better as a whole. Their TE is better.

 

Their offense basically amounted to getting to third down and hoping their elite QB could make a play off schedule as teams did what they could to take Diggs away (good luck…).

From what I can see the Bills need upgrades at WR and on the offensive line because they do rely on Allen too much to bail them out. Reminds me of the Broncos with Elway; holes that Elway could cover up with his Superman abilities but would only get them so far until they built the running game with Terrell Davis. Allen needs help now because coordinators have figured out how to slow him down. He's also an injury waiting to happen the way he runs and with the hits he takes.

 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I don't think Burrow is better than Allen.  He's smarter and more accurate, but Allen can do a lot of things that Burrow can't.  That beast mode touchdown drive Allen led being one example.  No other QB in the upper echelon of the league can take two defensive linemen trying to tackle him on a ride towards the end zone.  Take the surrounding teams out of it, and we're looking at a first tier of QBs where Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert are all roughly equal in being the elite players at the position, with Trevor Lawrence probably joining them next year and Brady, Rodgers, Murray, and Jackson being just a hair below them at this point in their careers.  Maybe Mahomes and Allen are a little better by dent of experience, but it's close enough that the difference is trivial and they will be a push in match ups.  And the outcomes of the games between them will be determined by the quality of the supporting casts.  It's much easier for Burrow to look better and play better than Allen in a game when their run offense is gashing Buffalo for 8 yard gains and picking up big first downs and he's facing zero pressure.  But he's not individually better than Allen to any meaningful degree, and almost no one believed that before yesterday's game.  I still don't believe it now.

I think the intelligence and accuracy are part of what makes Burrow better than Allen. All of that is part of the package. Allen is more physically gifted, but Burrow is close enough that the other stuff puts him over Allen.

 

But when I look at QBs I never grade them

or rank them solely on their physical attributes.

 

Allen is absolutely solid. Top 5 QB. Maybe top 3. I love Josh Allen. But he’s missing Burrow’s football IQ, accuracy and ball security.

[Koolblue13]

 

Allen is a great athlete and a good QB

Burrow is a good athlete and a Great QB.

 

I'd say that he's the best QB along with Mahomes and then there is a fall of until the second tier. 

[Warhead36]

Burrow is the best pure passer in the league right now. He doesn't have the insane "alien" like physical gifts that Mahomes or Allen have but he still has a rocket arm and pinpoint accuracy but more importantly he's got the cerebral aspects down pat. 

 

I think of Mahomes and Allen more like modern day versions of Favre and Elway. Burrow is probably more like Aikman or Marino. 

 

Either way, we're in for another Golden Age of QBs. Fortunately for us they're all in the AFC. 

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'd say that he's the best QB along with Mahomes and then there is a fall of until the second tier. 

I think Herbert and Hurts are close. Maybe not a full tier back but like half a tier maybe. 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Burrow is the best pure passer in the league right now. He doesn't have the insane "alien" like physical gifts that Mahomes or Allen have but he still has a rocket arm and pinpoint accuracy but more importantly he's got the cerebral aspects down pat. 

 

I think of Mahomes and Allen more like modern day versions of Favre and Elway. Burrow is probably more like Aikman or Marino. 

 

Either way, we're in for another Golden Age of QBs. Fortunately for us they're all in the AFC. 

I think Herbert and Hurts are close. Maybe not a full tier back but like half a tier maybe. 

I'm not completely sold on Hebert. I think he could be a Matt Ryan type, who's really good, but that's it. He's not throwing the team on his back like Lawrence, Burrow, Allen or Hurts.

 

Burrow, Mahomes

Hurts, Allen, Lawrence

Herbert, Lamar

 

I think that's my top 3 tiers.

[formerly4skins]

15 hours ago, Daniel.redskins said:

But I wouldn't call Jones a top 10 QB, he's more around 10-15. 

 

Putting Jones as a borderline top10 at his position, in combination with your username, has me suspicious this may be a burner account of his. I kid, but...

 

While dude had decent competition % numbers this season...15TD/5INT is so bad you'd assume he didn't play a full year just looking at those stats. 

 

There was a stretch this season where he went almost a full month between TD passes...9/18 vs CAR - 10/16 vs BAL.

Edited January 23, 2023 by formerly4skins
Typo

[NickyJ]

I love Josh Allen and he is by far the most fun QB to watch when the game is going the way the team wants. But for at least the last half of this season, he's been in a bit of a slump with his turnovers. If things get rocky, he makes mistakes. The interceptions kept the Dolphins in contention for far longer than they deserved. If he shakes it off, he's top 3. If he doesn't, I put him in the same category as Dak and Kirk for being contenders, but not closers. Still borderline top-5 because he has the physical tools to be the best, even above Mahomes and Burrow.

Edited January 23, 2023 by NickyJ

[NewCliche21]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

<SNIP>Take the surrounding teams out of it, and we're looking at a first tier of QBs where Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Herbert are all roughly equal in being the elite players at the position, with Trevor Lawrence probably joining them next year and Brady, Rodgers, Murray, and Jackson being just a hair below them at this point in their careers.  <SNIP>

I find this so fascinating.  *THE* guy is either 20ish years in the league or 5 and "at that point."  There doesn't seem to be that much in between.  I'd put the Mannings and Rivers and Roethlisberger and Brees in there, too.  You've either got your guy for a short or long time, it doesn't seem like in the middle.  I didn't notice that until you said it.

[samy316]

Take a look at this chart.  Keep in mind that the same people are in charge of handling FO decisions for at leat one more year:

 

 

 

It's amazing how horrific Ron Rivera & the FO are at making decisions related to the QB position.  I'm really tempted to bump that Fire Ron thread just to reiterate how awful our QB evaluating process is here.  The fact we won 8 games with two QB's who are dead last in WAR, QBR and PFF analytics is an amazing indictment on our offense, and a clear sign that the defense definitely played up to expectations this year..

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

43 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Take a look at this chart.  Keep in mind that the same people are in charge of handling FO decisions for at leat one more year:

 

 

 

It's amazing how horrific Ron Rivera & the FO are at making decisions related to the QB position.  I'm really tempted to bump that Fire Ron thread just to reiterate how awful our QB evaluating process is here.  The fact we won 8 games with two QB's who are dead last in WAR, QBR and PFF analytics is an amazing indictment on our offense, and a clear sign that the defense definitely played up to expectations this year..

 

 

So does that chart mean playing Wentz and/or Heinicke doesn't give you any more wins than if they were replaced with any one of dozens of other QBs out there...or something like that?

 

EDIT: Also, does that chart mean playing Wentz cost us wins compared to if we played pretty much any other QB in the NFL? lol...

Edited January 23, 2023 by Califan007 The Constipated

[KDawg]

35 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Take a look at this chart.  Keep in mind that the same people are in charge of handling FO decisions for at leat one more year:

 

 

 

It's amazing how horrific Ron Rivera & the FO are at making decisions related to the QB position.  I'm really tempted to bump that Fire Ron thread just to reiterate how awful our QB evaluating process is here.  The fact we won 8 games with two QB's who are dead last in WAR, QBR and PFF analytics is an amazing indictment on our offense, and a clear sign that the defense definitely played up to expectations this year..

 

 

I don't understand what Wins Above Replacement means for a NFL team. Not saying that it's wrong to say Heinicke/Wentz weren't elevating team play. Just don't understand how they could possibly calculate it.

 

Also one of our 8 wins was Sam Howell. That that only accounts for 7  wins. 

 

Justin Fields doesn't surprise me because Chicago was so bad that I'm not sure how he'd have any wins above replacement. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I don't understand what Wins Above Replacement means for a NFL team.