The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[wit33]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Scott Turner says all the time he doesn't want to limit Taylor on anything and just wants Taylor to be Taylor.  

 

So i think the breaks on Taylor's style specifically as to running is self imposed.  Taylor has talked about his conversations with his Old Dominion coach who told him the main thing holding back his career has been his durabilty.  Between that and other things he's said I get the strong impression that he knows his career will make or break by his ability to stay healthy.

Earlier on in the Heineke experience the coaches seemed more vocal on wanting him to be more mindful to preserve health. The more I dig, his college rushing stats declined from freshman to senior year.
 

His senior season he averaged just over 12 rush yards per game 😳

 

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As for game managing, I think he's aware that he can't have all these dynamics in play at the same time.

 

A.  He doesn't throw the ball much

B.  He doesn't get the ball down the field much.

 

AND

 

C.  throws a lot of picks.

 

He doesn't make enough plays like his gunslinger idol Brett Favre to throw three picks and still win.  If you throw for 40 plus times and 350 yards and have 2 picks its not the end of the world typically.  But 180 yards and throwing the ball 20 and change times and throwing 2 picks is often a debacle. 
 

 

In his defense, he hasn’t thrown 2 picks in any game this season. I’m still not at level of trusting he will get through game without making a poor throw or read, room for growth.  
 

Continued Uptempo situationally and if he runs just a bit more that can capture the right formula for Washington to have an average QB heading into the playoffs. Pulling off a win versus Dallas would be huge for him, he was dreadful last season (as you know and have documented). 
 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You can't be majoring in conservative throws on the first level, not pushing the ball down the field much with risky throws, not throwing the ball much, defenses oriented to stopping the run and not the pass AND you still throw a lot of picks.  The whole offense is oriented in part to limit Taylor's picks.   Be like limiting food to an overweight dude, load them up with rice cakes, no sugary foods to eat, yet they still put on 10 pounds -- that would be wild and unacceptable.  
 

 

I believe he’s very aware he must challenge teams vertically and does so just enough at this point to keep teams honest. Obviously, chunk plays is a huge area of weakness, but Turner has done a solid job of scheming max protection shots down field. 

 

He hasn’t thrown a lot of picks, but I imagine stats show on a per pass basis he ranks high—I get that. I don’t think the offense is just about limiting Heineke as a good portion of the posters here seem to think. This very much aligns with Rons DNA as a coach and adapting to what’s working in season. I noticed trend shifting from pass heavy to run dominant with Wentz out there as well. 

 

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Taylor seems to be a very self well aware dude and understands his limitations.  I get not wanting to get hurt and I don't blame him to some extent.  But I also think not being willing to take that risk will also cement him as a backup.  Granted his contract year is this year so the goal might be simply to get that next contract. 

I agree 100%. 

 

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

LOL - No he decided after watching Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Carson Wentz lose the job due to injury, not to mention his own issues with injury early in his career and in college he is applying self preservation. He is so limited by lack of an arm he cannot put such a critical part of the position on ice. He does not need to lead the team in rushing. But 4 to 6 well placed runs a game would take some pressure off the rest of the offense.  The coaches have pointed out their frustration with him on this. And it is not just hurting his game, it is hurting the entire offense which makes it selfish and self serving to a certain extent.

 

I agree for most part. 
 

Most players, especially QBs are about self preservation. I’ve opened up to idea he’s not remaining in the pocket only to not get hurt, but also to improve ability to manage a game. 
 

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

if the person coming back from injury were competent in any way my guess is TH would be back on the bench already. But Carson was so bad and continued to show the poor tendencies that plagued him at Philly and the Colts, not to mention the team is collecting Ws, the coaches have been reticent to pull the plug and with good reason. I believe one loss and he is done though. The question is who do you put in. Likely Carson but IMO that is a mistake. But from the coaches point of view better a guy who you at least know his weaknesses and can try to game plan around them, like they do with Taylor, than a complete unknown in terms of the NFL with the POs on the line. 
 

 

There’s a piece in me that believes Taylor will come through when needed and if that requires a 300 yard game he has it in him. Some coaches and certainly players seem to agree—he will do what needs to be done. Completely own I’m always exploring ways to increase fan value for myself, so believing Taylor will continue to beat the odds is fun with tons of value. 

 

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

I would still start Howell but that's unlikely unless and until the team is eliminated from the POs. 

Ya man, not happening. When I see Howells name posted by a few I keep scrolling lol. No point at this time to mention him. I understood when 1-4 and season looking grim, but it’s time to get to the post season with two veteran QBs. 
 

Will be a fun off season discussing Howell though. Nice Washington has a guy developing a potentially ready to play next season. 

[NoCalMike]

Howell vs Wentz as the backup are two completely different situations.  I don't think the coaches want Howell to see the field this season, unless it was an emergency no choice situation.  So all these previous weeks where Heinicke was playing mediocre but the team was winning, there was never a scenario Howell was coming in unless Heinicke was hurt.  However, now you have an actual QB1 behind Heinicke, so it is fair to ask if the leash on your QB2 is about to get shorter.

 

Lets say on Sunday the team goes into halftime down by a TD & Heinicke had a 7 for 15 70 yards & INT in the first half.  I wouldn't be so sure that Wentz wouldn't be coming in for the 2nd half. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Earlier on in the Heineke experience the coaches seemed more vocal on wanting him to be more mindful to preserve health. The more I dig, his college rushing stats declined from freshman to senior year.

\

 

It's been awhile, so I can't recall the time and place but I could swear that his coaches have talked about liking how Taylor is dangerous running the ball.  

 

Yeah he's been hurt a lot early in his career.  And heck the playoff game where he threw his body around more and got hurt in that game, too.  Logan Paulsen mentioned that Taylor isn't a natural as far as getting down when he's running and avoiding hits like a Daniel Jones.  And we got his contract year coming up.  So I am guessing its a combination of all of this. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

He hasn’t thrown a lot of picks, but I imagine stats show on a per pass basis he ranks high—I get that. I don’t think the offense is just about limiting Heineke as a good portion of the posters here seem to think. This very much aligns with Rons DNA as a coach and adapting to what’s working in season. I noticed trend shifting from pass heavy to run dominant with Wentz out there as well. 

 

 

My point is I think he understands that for a dude that doesn't throw the ball much period and when he does its usually high percentage conservative first level passes -- he can't get away with throwing many picks.  It would be like a baseball player without much power still striking out a ton as if they have the weakness of a power hitter even though they are supposed to major in being a contact hitter who shouldn't strike out much. 

 

According to PFF metrics, even with Taylor not throwing the ball much down the field, he still throws the most turnover worthy passes among any starters in the NFL.  

 

Some cite that Taylor has been lucky on that front.  But I think a big part of it is when they are throwing 20 and change passes the odds are much lower that you will throw a pick than Qbs who are throwing about twice as many passes.

 

[mistertim]

15 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

There’s a piece in me that believes Taylor will come through when needed and if that requires a 300 yard game he has it in him. Some coaches and certainly players seem to agree—he will do what needs to be done. Completely own I’m always exploring ways to increase fan value for myself, so believing Taylor will continue to beat the odds is fun with tons of value. 

 

 

Heinicke certainly seems to have that clutch gene when things are in crunch time, but one issue here is that IMO it's equally as likely that in trying to come through he'll end up throwing really back breaking interceptions by trying to make throws he's just not capable of making. He almost did it twice in one drive vs the Giants before it went to OT.

 

I know some Heinicke guys don't like the whole "he's thrown a lot of passes that should have been intercepted" thing, but it's not just made up BS. IIRC it was PFF that charts all that stuff and has TH as the starting QB with the most turnover worthy passes. Eventually that luck will have to run out, though the dude really does seem to have horseshoes and rabbit's feet stashed somewhere on him during games.

[Conn]

1 hour ago, Chris 44 said:

Thinking we crest the 1000 page mark this weekend.

I agree, when we start slow and bench Heinicke at some point for another attempt at the Wentz experience (ill-advised or not) this thread will blow up. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Finlay said he talked to someone with the team about this upcoming game and he was told this is a race to 23 points, whomever gets there first. 

 

Definitely comes off in so many ways that this team knows the limitations of this passing game.  

 

 

[redskinss]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

It’s one of those things where yes - it’s selfish, but I can also understand how it’s this guys only opportunity to get his hands on generational wealth.  It’s easy to judge and say that I wouldn’t do that, because I’m not in that position.

I'm not suggesting you were calling anybody out but I'd like to clarify my stance on this.

I, in no way fault heinicke for taking that position, it's the smart thing to do, I just don't have to respect that as a fan.

I'm not in line to cash a big check, I'm the one partially writing that check and my opinion as a fan is that this (if true) is just one more reason to go with someone else.

And I'll also say this, he's never once been given a starters position without injury and if he let's up enough to get himself benched he's not getting a big check from anybody. 

[HigSkin]

For anyone interested and can't believe he's doing this gig but Heinicke is going to be on The Herd at 2:20

[DJHJR86]

Looking over some advanced stats.

 

Average Completed Air Yds:
Wentz - 5.4

Heinicke - 6

 

Average Intended Air Yds:

Wentz - 8.1

Heinicke - 8.2

 

Aggressiveness %:

Wentz - 17.2

Heinicke - 15.1

 

Longest Completed Air Distance:

Wentz - 54.5

Heinicke - 53

 

Air Yds to the Sticks:

Wentz - -.9

Heinicke - -.3

 

Completion %:

Wentz - 62.1

Heinicke - 61.8

 

Expected Completion %: 

Wentz - 65.8

Heinicke - 61.7

 

Passer Rtg w/Clean Pocket:

Wentz - 84.1

Heinicke - 86.3

 

Bad Throws %:
Wentz - 21.2%

Heinicke - 18.5%

 

On Target %:

Wentz - 70.8%

Heinicke - 70%

 

Drop %:

Wentz - 4.9%

Heinicke - 2%

 

% Pressure per Dropback:

Wentz - 23.3%

Heinicke - 27.7%

 

Average Time in Pocket:

Wentz - 2.3 seconds

Heinicke - 2.4 seconds

 

Pass YAC per Completion:
Wentz - 4.9

Heinicke - 5.1

Edited December 15, 2022 by DJHJR86

[CommanderCarson]

16 hours ago, HogsVa7 said:

We were 2-4 with Wentz. With Heinieke we are 5-1-1. Look at our offense with Wentz the first six weeks. First two games we scored points and I believe he threw two picks against Jacksonville. The second game of playing the Lions of what I can remember our offense caught on late but got shut out early and couldn't do anything. Then look at the Eagles game eight points and got sacked like nine times . The Dallas game 10 points. Titans game seventeen points, but threw a pick to win it at the end. The Bears game twelve points. Then he gets hurt and Heinieke starts and then all of a sudden you see a spark in this team. We go on a winning streak and are in playoff contention. We beat the Eagles at the Eagles on MNF for goodness sake. If Wentz started that game we darn know we won't win that game. Heinieke might have less arm strength than Wentz and we all know that, but Heinieke knows this system in and out and has great chemistry with his WRS's. That's why he has given up less sacks. If you want Wentz in fine, but I don't see him playing again unless Heinieke gets hurt. If Wentz has to come in Ill be rooting for him, but get ready for flashbacks when he was overthrowing five yard passes and ten yard passes and taking sacks. We all know if Wentz had to start every game this year we wouldn't even come close to playoff contention. 

I’m quite surprised myself that there are some trying to talk themselves into Wentz. And it’s fine to disagree, everyone sees things differently. But I keep trying to understand what it could be that has anyone interested in seeing Wentz, and the only thing I can reasonably come up with is that people were excited for a more explosive passing game and talked themselves all off season into believing that heineke hardly belonged in the NFL, let alone was again capable of winning games for this inept franchise. And that Wentz represented a clear upgrade, still represents an upgrade, and wasn’t given enough of a sample size with a less than stellar supporting cast the first six weeks of the year so that’s not representative of what he could bring to the table now with this team as it’s currently playing.

 

^I believe I’ve hit on what the main points have been from those that entertain Wentz should get another shot and that Ron must be itching to get him back in. 
 

It’s certainly not impossible. Maybe Wentz has a better understanding of the offense and protections now, maybe he learns to take less negative plays and keeps the team in situations where the run is always on the table, maybe Brian Robinson continues to mature and blossom into a beast of a RB as the season goes on and Wentz’ load to carry the offense on the passing games back is lightened. None of that is out of the realm of possibility. Wentz clearly has moments when he’s on and can play with the best. Maybe more time brings out more consistency. 
 

The frustrating thing for me though, is the above is all just a possibility. It’s all based on conjecture (and no I’m not saying not to discuss hypotheticals based on variables changing throughout the season). 
 

There has been so much good analysis recently showing that while Heineke isn’t good, neither was Wentz. Like at all. And he worked against the strengths of this team with the offensive line the way it is currently constructed (single biggest Ron failure to this point, but think it’s corrected this off season.. I digress). He’d routinely take sacks that would back the team up. And yes, some of that is the offensive line. But some were flat out on him running around too long and running into someone. 
 

There has also been some great analysis on here of late showing what Wentz’ numbers with the colts looked like with a similar game plan, yet better RB and O line than we currently have by a long shot. We’ve taken a look at how the offense really fared with Wentz, and outside of Jax and second half Detroit, it’s ugly (okay got it, situations are much different now but are they???), and it’s also been pointed out how Wentz fared with a run based attack (Chicago, and no he didn’t break his hand until later in that game) and it was not pretty. 99 yards and 12 points. 
 

Those are all facts about Carson Wentz at this point in time. Not conjecture, but real life observation on how he’s performed with our organization and the organization prior to us. What’s also fact is that the team wins games with heineke starting. They just do. 
 

I’ve been reading the same thing for weeks, which is that heineke is just a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. Literally since the first game he started, it was only a matter of time before defenses would sit on the pass and we wouldn’t be able to do a damn thing about it. Now we have to wait for San Fran 🤣

 

Maybe it’s coming. It would NOT shock me one bit. But it hasn’t yet. And here we are 7-5-1 after going 5-1-1 in his starts and it’s a round and round circle about how heineke is a dead weight and Ron is just waiting for the slightest of miscues to rip out heine and insert Wentz. I don’t personally believe that to be the case but ok. I DO think Ron walks a tight line with the media so that IF he were to feel compelled to make a change, he wouldn’t have to worry about committing so adamantaly before it happens and having the media pick that apart. But I don’t think it’s currently on the radar, at all. 
 

I will say this again. This is all coming from that loved the shot they took on Wentz. My name is CommanderCarson for crying out loud, and I joined right after the big trade to bring him on. But I’m not afraid to say I was wrong and admit that they should have kept the 28M and draft picks and rolled heineke out there until they found something better. Cause that’s the reality of the situation right now, we’d be better off with that 28m and 2 3rds. 
 

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, HigSkin said:

For anyone interested and can't believe he's doing this gig but Heinicke is going to be on The Herd at 2:20

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

18 minutes ago, CommanderCarson said:

But I’m not afraid to say I was wrong and admit that they should have kept the 28M and draft picks and rolled heineke out there until they found something better. Cause that’s the reality of the situation right now, we’d be better off with that 28m and 2 3rds. 

Who exactly is afraid to admit that $28M and the picks would be the better option?  I don’t think anyone is clamoring for Wentz to right some wrong.

 

I don’t think anyone expected Turner to adopt this run-heavy offense with consistent first read gimmes, or that the defense would be playing as well as it has.  Bottom line, nobody would expect this team to be winning ball games with stat lines like Heinicke puts up week to week.  He doesn’t look improved as a player, I’d argue he actually looks worse.  Add to that we’ve been unusually fortunate this season.  

 

If Heinicke wasn’t playing pedestrian ball, nobody would be speculating about Wentz.  I’ve yet to even see anyone all that confident that Wentz is the answer.  This is just what happens when fans watch bad QB play, whether the team is winning or losing - naturally folks would like to see someone else.

 

 

[NoCalMike]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Who exactly is afraid to admit that $28M and the picks would be the better option?  I don’t think anyone is clamoring for Wentz to right some wrong.

 

I don’t think anyone expected Turner to adopt this run-heavy offense with consistent first read gimmes, or that the defense would be playing as well as it has.  Bottom line, nobody would expect this team to be winning ball games with stat lines like Heinicke puts up week to week.  He doesn’t look improved as a player, I’d argue he actually looks worse.  Add to that we’ve been unusually fortunate this season.  

 

If Heinicke wasn’t playing pedestrian ball, nobody would be speculating about Wentz.  I’ve yet to even see anyone all that confident that Wentz is the answer.  This is just what happens when fans watch bad QB play, whether the team is winning or losing - naturally folks would like to see someone else.

 

 

 

Yes. This.  The point is that Heinicke isn't playing that well CURRENTLY, but the team is winning despite of it.  We need to stop comparing the entire team now to what the entire team looked like during the first six weeks.  The defense has come on as monsters, and Brian Robinson returning and taking a couple of games to get his legs really transformed this running game.  The more I look at the running game, the more I tend to think had Robinson not come back so quick (if at all this season) and Gibson was still shouldering 75-90% of the burden, then the running game wouldn't be half as good as it is now which in turn would reflect on Heinicke as well.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that Wentz looked great before he was injured, nor does anyone suggest that we should bring Wentz back in and go back to the kind of offense we were running before Heinicke came in.

 

The question people don't seem to want to address is whether or not Wentz has a better chance to succeed in the present version of the offense that runs the ball at a much higher clip and also with a defense that isn't giving up as much points as they were the first two months, because the run-heavy offense certainly hasn't made Heinicke any better outside of perhaps giving him less chances to throw an ill advised pass, but his actual play isn't any better and wouldn't be seen as acceptable if the rest of the team wasn't carrying dude over the finish line most of the time.

[FLSkinz83]

the limitations of the passing game are at least 60% on the pass protection.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

9 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

the limitations of the passing game are at least 60% on the pass protection.

[HogsVa7]

4 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Who exactly is afraid to admit that $28M and the picks would be the better option?  I don’t think anyone is clamoring for Wentz to right some wrong.

 

I don’t think anyone expected Turner to adopt this run-heavy offense with consistent first read gimmes, or that the defense would be playing as well as it has.  Bottom line, nobody would expect this team to be winning ball games with stat lines like Heinicke puts up week to week.  He doesn’t look improved as a player, I’d argue he actually looks worse.  Add to that we’ve been unusually fortunate this season.  

 

If Heinicke wasn’t playing pedestrian ball, nobody would be speculating about Wentz.  I’ve yet to even see anyone all that confident that Wentz is the answer.  This is just what happens when fans watch bad QB play, whether the team is winning or losing - naturally folks would like to see someone else.

 

 

If you start Wentz the running game will be worse. It wasn't working when he was in there because Wentz has no threat of running he is slow like dial up connection. Heinicke has mobility and puts a bigger threat in the running game with Scott Turners offense. 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, HogsVa7 said:

If you start Wentz the running game will be worse. It wasn't working when he was in there because Wentz has no threat of running he is slow like dial up connection. Heinicke has mobility and puts a bigger threat in the running game with Scott Turners offense. 

That'd make sense if we ran design QB run plays but we don't.

 

The run game got better because the OL restabilized and we got Robinson back into the lineup with his legs back under him after the shooting. 

 

Heinicke's presence has no real effect on the effectiveness of the run game.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

4 minutes ago, HogsVa7 said:

If you start Wentz the running game will be worse. It wasn't working when he was in there because Wentz has no threat of running he is slow like dial up connection. Heinicke has mobility and puts a bigger threat in the running game with Scott Turners offense. 

Soon I’m going to read posts that Taylor is responsible for the sky being blue.

 

 

[goskins10]

5 minutes ago, HogsVa7 said:

If you start Wentz the running game will be worse. It wasn't working when he was in there because Wentz has no threat of running he is slow like dial up connection. Heinicke has mobility and puts a bigger threat in the running game with Scott Turners offense. 

I guess you missed the last several pages (and other pages in the thread) of discussion about why TH is NOT running?  kind of runs all over argument.  
 

🤣😂🤣😂

 

 

[HogsVa7]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

That'd make sense if we ran design QB run plays but we don't.

 

The run game got better because the OL restabilized and we got Robinson back into the lineup with his legs back under him after the shooting. 

 

Heinicke's presence has no real effect on the effectiveness of the run game.

I disagree but it's all good. With Wentz he has no threat of running or has mobility at all. If Wentz is in shotgun which our offense is in the majority of the time the running game comes predictable. Defenses bring more pressure to stop the run and even when we play action or RPO in shotgun it gets more predictable. Heinicke opens up the running game with his mobility even though he doesn't run like last year the threat is there and defenses still try to prepare for it. 

2 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

I guess you missed the last several pages (and other pages in the thread) of discussion about why TH is NOT running?  kind of runs all over argument.  
 

🤣😂🤣😂

 

 

I believe he will start scrambling and running if he has to now since the playoff chances are right in front of them. 

[Skinsinparadise]

41 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

I guess you missed the last several pages (and other pages in the thread) of discussion about why TH is NOT running?  kind of runs all over argument.  
 

🤣😂🤣😂

 

 

 

Including Wentz already has run for more yards than Heinicke has and did so playing one less game.

 

But neither dude presents any supplement to the running game.  I'll grant that Heinicke has the potential to do it but he simply doesn't.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Soon I’m going to read posts that Taylor is responsible for the sky being blue.

 

 

Not to mention the reason the sun rises!  

Edited December 16, 2022 by goskins10

[FLSkinz83]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Soon I’m going to read posts that Taylor is responsible for the sky being blue.

 

 

 

I'd say partly cloudy

[Skinsinparadise]

Heinicke is struggling against some of the worst defenses in the NFL, the 49ers, best defense in the NFL, is likely going to be a brutal match up 

 

[Warhead36]

Yeah my only hope is that they show up flat and uninspired after clinching the division tonight. With four losses already home field advantage is not realistic so maybe they won't play as hard and Shanahan sits some guys.