The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Per usual, a lot of sweeping generalizations and judgments based on one game of football.

 

 

[zCommander]

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I'm not, and are you talking first half against the Packers or that rate as an average for that game?

 

3rd down conversions went back up since the last two games I should have said. I would imagine it would have been higher in the Packers game if TH didn't suck in the 1st half.

 

Okay so here are the 3rd down conversions for all games.

 

Jax 7 - 10
Lions 7 - 15
Eagles 6 - 17
Cowboys 5 - 15
Titans 4 - 14
Bears 2 - 11
Packers 7 - 16

[zCommander]

28 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Per usual, a lot of sweeping generalizations and judgments based on one game of football.

 

Technically it is 6 games of Wentz and 16 games of TH on the same team. 

[Renegade7]

26 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

3rd down conversions went back up since the last two games I should have said. I would imagine it would have been higher in the Packers game if TH didn't suck in the 1st half.

 

Okay so here are the 3rd down conversions for all games.

 

Jax 7 - 10
Lions 7 - 15
Eagles 6 - 17
Cowboys 5 - 15
Titans 4 - 14
Bears 2 - 11
Packers 7 - 16

 

Man...no way would I have believe we went nearly 50% on 3rd down watching that Lions game unless you showed that and I looked it up as well.

 

What I see is third down being good to reasonable, then progressive sliding into terrible before spiking upwards in one game.

 

That's pretty close to what happened during the 4 game win streak, 3rd down conversions rate steadily dropped until the Raiders game, then we got the breaks beat off us against Dallas.

 

Only once did that Stat look respectable again, and surprisingly it was our second game against Philly, with the season finale against Giants looking jus as ugly in the box score as it was to watch.

 

So, I expect him to do decently againt the Colts, come crashing to Earth against the Eagles, then hold the fort until Wentz is off IR.  Nothing against the Packers suggests otherwise, cannot hype how the 2nd half and act like the first half didn't happen, it's prototypical inconsistency,  the hallmark of any backup QB.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Renegade7

[TMK9973]

I'll be honest. Regardless of how many games he starts -I just one day want to find someone who looks at me like Jonathan Allen looks at Taylor Heinicke  

[The Rook]

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

  His replacement won't be in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

There is a second round QB who is presently leading a undefeated team. 🤔

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

The Eagles turned Wentz into AJ Brown, Davis and even more. Can't imagine what they'd have done with Cousins. Hell, they might be about to trade the Saints second rounder next year for Kamara.    Ever since Howie picked Raergor instead of Jefferson, he hasn't missed once.

 

Yep.

 

On the FO thread years back where Bruce Allen had some strong supporters -- among other points I made the case for the Eagles and Roseman as for how they conduct business and they did it better than our FO.   I got some pushback on it. Then when the article came out about how Lurrie interferes years back, it came out in a rare down season for the Eagles, one of those regulars on the FO called me out about hey what do you think of your prized Eagle FO now?

 

I've been right on some stuff and wrong, just like anyone else.  But battiling the pro Bruce posters and those that pushed back with me about the Eagles -- is one in the win column for me.   I'd love it if our FO would operate like Roseman.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

There is a lot to be said for key core locker room leaders in Terry Mc and Jon Allen being all over Heinicke. Now that is a pill for me to swallow because I am far from a TH guy but yeah, he deserves his moment. Fair play to him.

[DJHJR86]

I'm still bitter over the fact that they never presented Cousins with a serious contract offer, and when it became clear he wasn't going to be here for what they offered, didn't even attempt to try and trade him.  

[The Rook]

The last four games Wentz started, the Commanders scored 8, 10, 17, 12. Yikes

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

I’m by no means in the camp that Heinicke is the answer, however I would strongly consider giving him a contact extension. Yep seriously I would. Heinicke and Howell under contract, opens the offseason up a bit more.

 

I’ll be honest, I never even thought about the idea of bringing TH back next year.  It just seemed a foregone conclusion that he’d be gone and Howell would backup Wentz, or Howell and a draft would duke it out for the #1 and #2 spots, etc.

But given how apparently complicated this offense is and the small pool of qbs that have played in a similar system, having a qb that knows the offense well is a legitimate asset.  That’s not to say he’s a “must sign” or anything, but I can see the reasoning to bringing him back.

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, The Rook said:

The last four games Wentz started, the Commanders scored 8, 10, 17, 12. Yikes

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

 

People saying to play Heinicke aren't arguing he's a franchise guy (for the most part).  It's that Wentz was HORRENDOUS.

 

Carson has absolutely no mobility. Total statue in the pocket. 

 

The staff has tried to replace Heinicke as starter twice in as many offseasons. It's obvious they know he's not The Guy. But Fitz died in the first half of the first game last year and Carson is even worse than he was in Indianapolis.

 

IMO it doesn't make sense to restructure Carson and bring him back because he's totally washed. Career as a starter is over - welcome to the Andy Dalton Phase of your career. Heinicke they might as well bring back at least just to compete in camp.

 

They gotta bring in another potential #1. Either FA, trade, or draft. 

[Renegade7]

4 minutes ago, The Rook said:

 

There is a second round QB who is presently leading a undefeated team. 🤔

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

 

Badly as I want to give you that point, it is rare AF to get a franchise QB outside first round and its not like its the Eagles passing attack that is leading that loaded team to 6-0. 

 

That's gonna come to head soon when that rookie contract expires compared to his actual production level. It's debatable whether he actually is going to be their franchise QB worthy of that level of investment by time they get to that point, he's probably middle of the pack at best right now, is his ceiling even top 10 QB?

 

I'm not sold the future of the NFL is loaded teams with mobile QBs on rookie contracts that don't ruin it over getting an actual franchise QB and trying to win as much as possible in their rookie contract before can't afford to keep the team together.

 

Jalen is basically in a best case scenario right now, clearly a project last year that's become more respectable this year.  So you think we gonna take a QB in the 2nd round in 2023 to build our franchise around?  I can unfortunately think of a lot more things more likely to happen then that.

[skinny21]

2 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

People saying to play Heinicke aren't arguing he's a franchise guy (for the most part).  It's that Wentz was HORRENDOUS.

 

Carson has absolutely no mobility. Total statue in the pocket. 

 

The staff has tried to replace Heinicke as starter twice in as many offseasons. It's obvious they know he's not The Guy. But Fitz died in the first half of the first game last year and Carson is even worse than he was in Indianapolis.

 

IMO it doesn't make sense to restructure Carson and bring him back because he's totally washed. Career as a starter is over - welcome to the Andy Dalton Phase of your career. Heinicke they might as well bring back at least just to compete in camp.

 

They gotta bring in another potential #1. Either FA, trade, or draft. 

Count me out on FA/trade.  It’s draft or nothing for me.

 

As to Wentz, if they could put a dominant oline in front of him, I’d be open to him returning on a reduced deal.  Don’t think that happens though.  Actually, let me rephrase that… I could absolutely see them bringing Carson back, and could even see them doing it without changing his contract (ugh), I just don’t see us putting together a dominant oline this offseason (especially if they don’t restructure his contract).

[TMK9973]

10 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Badly as I want to give you that point, it is rare AF to get a franchise QB outside first round and its not like its the Eagles passing attack that is leading that loaded team to 6-0. 

 

 

Is it?

Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Jimmy G (Although I know they are trying to get rid of him), Kirk Cousins and of course Tom Brady - all after 1st round.

I dont think its common, but I wouldn't say its all that rare either.  

 

 

Edited October 27, 2022 by TMK9973

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, TMK9973 said:

Is it?

Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Jimmy G (Although I know they are trying to get rid of him), Kirk Cousins and of course Tom Brady - all after 1st round.

I dont think its common, but I wouldn't say its all that rare either.  

 

 

It is.  Dak was the last and that was years ago.  
 

It happens but it happens RARELY.  
 

You forgot Wilson, FWIW.  
 

The odds are massively against you.  I mean, the odds are against you even with the first pick.  But they get longer with every pick. 

6 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Count me out on FA/trade.  It’s draft or nothing for me.

 

As to Wentz, if they could put a dominant oline in front of him, I’d be open to him returning on a reduced deal.  Don’t think that happens though.  Actually, let me rephrase that… I could absolutely see them bringing Carson back, and could even see them doing it without changing his contract (ugh), I just don’t see us putting together a dominant oline this offseason (especially if they don’t restructure his contract).

The contract has nothing to do with what they could or could not do in the off season.  
 

But they need to really address the interior of the OL.  Doesn’t even have to be dominant.  Just not completely suck ass.  
 

It’s amazing what just getting Larsen back has done.  The interior went from F- to … D+ with just a backup center playing.

[TMK9973]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

It is.  Dak was the last and that was years ago.  
 

It happens but it happens RARELY.  
 

You forgot Wilson, FWIW.  
 

The odds are massively against you.  I mean, the odds are against you even with the first pick.  But they get longer with every pick. 

Yeah. Added wilson even before I read your post. 

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, TMK9973 said:

Is it?

Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Jimmy G (Although I know they are trying to get rid of him), Kirk Cousins and of course Tom Brady - all after 1st round.

I dont think its common, but I wouldn't say its all that rare either.  

 

Out of how many drafts and picks in each round, how many starters in NFL right now?  Brady is the anomaly of anomalies, Jimmy doesn't belong in this conversation, imo, he's only playing right now because the 1st rounder that took his job got hurt.

[Voice_of_Reason]

There are a whole lot of people posting about cap and money stuff when they have no idea what they are talking about.

 

First, Wentz’s cap number is actually lower next year.  
 

Second, mid-20’s for a QB is fine from a cap allocation perspective and doesn’t prevent a team from doing anything.

 

 

Third, even without touching Wentz’s contract (and I wouldn’t because any restructure would add years and guaranteed money which would mean dead cap room if they cut him) if they wanted to, they could sign 5-10 new top-end starters and pay them tons of money under the cap.  
 

The cap is a myth.  Wentz’s contract is irrelevant.  
 

The question is: do you have a better option or not.  If not, you keep him.  If you do, you don’t.  

[TMK9973]

4 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Out of how many drafts and picks in each round, how many starters in NFL right now?  Brady is the anomaly of anomalies, Jimmy doesn't belong in this conversation, imo, he's only playing right now because the 1st rounder that took his job got hurt.

This is what I got.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_starting_quarterbacks_in_the_National_Football_League

 

But look - 32 teams.  

9 starting a QB taken in top 5 

4 more taken top 10

5 more taken in 1st round

14 taken after 1st round (or not drafted). 

(Someone could check my numbers).

 

This is just a snap shot on who is starting this week.  But my math - 18 taken 1st round, 14 taken non 1st round. 

 

[Renegade7]

2 minutes ago, TMK9973 said:

This is what I got.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_starting_quarterbacks_in_the_National_Football_League

 

But look - 32 teams.  

9 starting a QB taken in top 5 

4 more taken top 10

5 more taken in 1st round

14 taken after 1st round (or not drafted). 

(Someone could check my numbers).

 

This is just a snap shot on who is starting this week.  But my math - 18 taken 1st round, 14 taken non 1st round. 

 

 

How many of those 14 you'd want to build your team around at any point in their career?  And how long a time period we see this remaining QBs spread out being drafted?  Certainly not one every draft, right?  

[TMK9973]

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

How many of those 14 you'd want to build your team around at any point in their career?  And how long a time period we see this remaining QBs spread out being drafted?  Certainly not one every draft, right?  

I agree with you. Im not even arguing against anything you say.  

I think having a top draft pick gives you a better chance of drafting a QB (Although I draw the line at rooting to lose. Not that you are or doing that -but earlier in the thread I shows that that in last 12 yeasr Washington is tied for 2nd most top 5 draft picks and it didn't help us land a QB).  

 

I guess my point is that yes- While a higher draft picks improves your odds of getting a QB you can build around, You can still do it with a QB from a later round or FA.

 

Its harder -but not so rare that it doesn't happen often.  In fact - I would venture a guess that EVERY year there is at least ONE QB who is drafted after the 1st round that has a much better career then a QB that is drafted in the 1st round.  

 

[Chris 44]

On 10/20/2021 at 12:49 PM, Morneblade said:

This year is a wash. Let's not even talk about it, really. TH is limited, and I think is limiting himself, which isn't going well.

Fitz is not a long term answer. He never was, and we knew that. But after the way he played in preseason and and his 15 or so minutes in the regular season, he looked terrible. I'm not even sure I want to see him on the field. Allen is a JAG that knows the system. Meh.

 

I'm not saying we tank, but I'd ride the season out with TH. At worst, he's a backup that can do some things when he uses his legs.

 

I think we know we need to get a good QB, to even have a chance. I don't watch enough college football to have a real feel on the QB position coming out, but from what others are saying, it's not a real strong class. But it still might be our only real option.

 

I don't see us being able to get a top tier FA to come here. We don't have the cred, or look like the Bucs. Loaded everywhere, but no QB. And the Dan factor.

 

Best case looks like to get real lucky in the draft and pick someone that just explodes, like Mahomes and Herbert did.

 

 

10/20/21       Deja vu all over again. lol

This was the 2nd post in this 814 page thread and could almost be inserted into this page.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Chris 44

[Renegade7]

20 minutes ago, TMK9973 said:

I agree with you. Im not even arguing against anything you say.  

I think having a top draft pick gives you a better chance of drafting a QB (Although I draw the line at rooting to lose. Not that you are or doing that -but earlier in the thread I shows that that in last 12 yeasr Washington is tied for 2nd most top 5 draft picks and it didn't help us land a QB).  

 

I guess my point is that yes- While a higher draft picks improves your odds of getting a QB you can build around, You can still do it with a QB from a later round or FA.

 

I gotcha, I'll say I may be overreacting to the notion of Jalen being the QB for a 6-0 team like that was the plan all along in context to possibly finding our own future QB.  If for any reason that wasn't the plan in Philly, Hurts was supposed to replace Foles, not Wentz.

 

None if these discussions occur in a vacuum, no way does Rivera stake his chance of making the playoffs next year in a 2nd round or 3rd round rookie QB he plans to develop into the the franchise QB for the team.

 

How many of the QBs mentioned were thrown into that situation the moment they were drafted, needing to start ASAP and make the playoffs to help save their HCs job?  Not Brady, not Kirk, Romo was still there when Dak was drafted, Carr would count i guess, Wilson took the job from Flynn.

 

20 minutes ago, TMK9973 said:

Its harder -but not so rare that it doesn't happen often.  In fact - I would venture a guess that EVERY year there is at least ONE QB who is drafted after the 1st round that has a much better career then a QB that is drafted in the 1st round.  

 

 

Like to see what that looks like written out : )

[Koolblue13]

28 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

10/20/21       Deja vu all over again. lol

This was the 2nd post in this 814 page thread and could almost be inserted into this page.

We had the same type of posts on here back in the 40's too. Ask Cali the constipated.