The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[CommanderInTheRye]

Only video I could find of Dave Gardi. You have to watch it on YouTube if you're interested because for some reason I can't imbed it.

 

https://youtu.be/DcMUoh8SOp0?si=Y8ixke1ZD60RBIN8

 

 

XXXXXXX

 

 

1 hour ago, Ghost of said:

If there's

 

"they'd have won a title if not for the defense"

 

Alexa, what's "complementary football?"

 

 

My Alexa, is usually dumb as a brick, but the old girl answered that question admirably to my surprise.

 

.

Edited April 15 by CommanderInTheRye

[Dah-Dee]

 

For McCarthy fans, I get it, lot to like there. I thought going into the combine that he was maybe the biggest mystery at QB (not counting Penix's medical reports), and he did show off a good arm. He also apparently wowed teams in interviews. So I get the love.

 

I guess maybe he still "feels" like one of those really good college QBs who never quite pan out in the NFL.  Scouting reports don't do him many favors there, with some of the same issues popping up repeatedly:

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/j.j.-mccarthy/32004d43-4318-9531-b3f5-120a14383239

 

• Sluggish getting through progressions and can get stuck on first read.
• Modest arm strength might be magnified by windup in his delivery.
• Ball placement on tape belies completion percentage on the stat sheet.
• Leaves throws behind moving targets, allowing defenders to challenge catches.
• Deep balls need to come out quicker and with more air under them.
• Timing improved during the season but still crowds receivers to coverage.
• Average escapability as a runner when scrambling.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10089502-jj-mccarthy-nfl-draft-2024-scouting-report-for-michigan-qb

 

— One-speed thrower with average arm talent. Often fails to add arc and touch when necessary, especially outside the numbers.

— Below-average ability to throw late in the down or from uncomfortable platforms.

— Below-average processing and timing on anything but his first read.

 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/j-j-mccarthy-nfl-draft-2024-combine-results-scouting-report-for-michigan-qb/

 

• Doesn't have a naturally strong arm. Needs a firm base with his front foot pointing to the target to drive the ball with velocity. Some deeper intermediate and deep throws lose energy on the back end. Has a good arm but not an explosive arm.
• Must become quicker with elimination and isolation from the pocket, which will likely happen with experience.
• Missed a few too many routine throws with less-than-precise ball placement. Must be tightened up.
• Has a tendency at times to break down and leave the pocket when he perceives pressure. Needs to stay within structure.
• 2023: At times, labored to drive the ball when on the move. Ball did not jump off his hand with natural velocity.
• Occasionally has a tendency to be late on some intermediate and vertical throws. Afforded that luxury because he was behind a great offensive line.
• The tape doesn't show a natural sense of timing and anticipation. Don't see those kinds of rhythmic throws.  
• Not an off-platform thrower. Needs a firm, solid base to drive the ball and throw with any kind of velocity; has to use his entire body to deliver with juice.
• Too many poor ball-placement throws. Shows tendency to be erratic with his accuracy on routine throws.

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/article/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-qb-jj-mccarthy-michigan--228291953/

 

- Above average arm strength is evident on film. He's not really a guy who's going to wow NFL scouts with his arm. 

- Due to the Wolverines' strong running game over the last few years, McCarthy's ability as a passer was limited. He'll need to improve in his area to take another step forward. 

- Needs to process the field better. He gets stuck sometimes on just one wide receiver. Instead, he needs to scan the whole field and deliver a quick, accurate throw. 

- Must improve as a deep ball passer. He doesn't have the biggest arm so he can't push the ball down the field. But he will need to improve his deep ball in order to take his game to another level. 

[illone]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

You know it's funny, near the end of the season, I don't know anyone who thought Daniels was a top 3 guy (as in top 3 picks.) Now he is. People just rolled over on it.  But if someone suggests McCarthy, the younger-than-Maye even, the best all-around metrics, former five-star with 4.5 speed and the fifth fastest shuttle at the combine (of all positions) state and national HS champion and now college champion is worthy of consideration---no, nope. Can't do it.

 

 

Yea, it's kind of a weird phenomena.  There are some human psychology elements to it. 

 

Example: frequency and familiarity.

 

The human brain sees something in the same place for long enough, it will think it belongs there even if it doesn't. This is devoid of analysis, and yes we are ALL guilty of it. It's part of being human. Drake Maye has been at the top of mock drafts for over 12 months. Caleb even longer. To suggest they DONT belong there is sacrilege. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Chris Russell pushing Maye hard.  Between that and PFF loving Maye, I think we lose @Voice_of_Reason from the Maye camp.  I am afraid to even look to see what Thor thinks about it.

Edited April 15 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

 

46 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Daniels and his mom played a huge role in that dysfunction!! Daniels played a role in multiple coaches getting fired. 

 

This is the pros, no one cares about the parents. Non issue. 

Lavar Ball approves this message. 

[Ghost of]

Winning matters so little, that you can win your own state as a Sophomore with a broken thumb, win a national title with IMG (where elite athletes tend to go) be a five-star and Michigan's best recruit since Drew Henson, have great metrics, be young with a lot of starts, overcome your mistakes you made in your only loss in your career, supplant the guy who got the team past Ohio State and to the CFP, beat Stroud on the road in 22, win the national title with an injured leg that takes you from Heisman favorite on October 23rd (after MSU game) to "no one is entertaining this guy as a 1st round pick lol".

 

I remember the famous Mike Singletary speech: "I don't want winners, nor do I want people who want to win! Nor do I want guys with good predictive metrics or physical talent."

[Ghost of]

18 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

For McCarthy fans, I get it, lot to like there. I thought going into the combine that he was maybe the biggest mystery at QB (not counting Penix's medical reports), and he did show off a good arm. He also apparently wowed teams in interviews. So I get the love.

 

I guess maybe he still "feels" like one of those really good college QBs who never quite pan out in the NFL.  Scouting reports don't do him many favors there, with some of the same issues popping up repeatedly:

 

 

- Above average arm strength is evident on film. He's not really a guy who's going to wow NFL scouts with his arm. 

- Due to the Wolverines' strong running game over the last few years, McCarthy's ability as a passer was limited. He'll need to improve in his area to take another step forward. 

- Needs to process the field better. He gets stuck sometimes on just one wide receiver. Instead, he needs to scan the whole field and deliver a quick, accurate throw. 

- Must improve as a deep ball passer. He doesn't have the biggest arm so he can't push the ball down the field. But he will need to improve his deep ball in order to take his game to another level. 

 

This is why I'm citing his combine velocity.  Distance throwing is really down to velocity and arc.  If you can throw just under Milton's 62mph, you can throw as far as need be --

unless it's about things like grip on the ball, proper mechanics when throwing deep, etc.  So I'm open to him needing to figure out the best arc on a deep ball.

 

Also, he has absolute rocket throws while on the run, when his base is not set where you'd be relying on your arm. or even what he did in the Rose Bowl making the leaping grap and tossing it while floating backwards to Wilson down the field.  So I'm saying I disagree with some of the 'scouting takes' because physics dictates that if you can throw at 62 mph, and are known for lasers up to 20-25 yards, that it must be down to some other aspect in terms of not throwing deep but "arm" is not one of them. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Llevron said:

 

You know what we must do 

 

 

I don't think even the most high volume shrill posters (certainly me) are talking about absolutes, I think people are simply interpreting it that way.

 

If I say Daniels checks a ton of boxes associated with future busts, I'm not saying he is a bust, I'm saying he has far too many traits associated with busts to be picked this high. Similarly as much as I love Maye, and I do, and am not bothered by the negative traits/metrics nearly as much (since I view a ton of them as basically white noise, open to the eye of the beholder), I still view him as a 50-70% hit guy, with only about 50% stud at most, Daniels I view as probably 35-60% hit, with like a 40% stud chance. 

 

If I'm dealing in absolutes, or something close, I'd be saying he's a bust period, and Maye is a hit period, but nobody paying attention to QB drafting for 36 years would ever argue such a point. I was watching those drafts live in the 90s when GM's largely went 0 for the decade drafting QB's in round 1 in terms of studs, other than Bledsoe and McNabb. There's no absolute anything here, its degrees, and in my case, I've moved more from focusing on what I think makes them likely to hit, which I used to focus on, to more what sends off alarm bells that they'll miss because honestly, while I still have hunches about hits, and am right, generally about the most obvious guys (Luck, Lawrence-even if he's hitting his floor right now, he's not Zach Wilson level bust territory either), what I've come to terms with is that nobody is good at figuring out who will hit, but some are pretty good at figuring out who is most likely to miss, and I think I'm genuinely pretty good at that at this point, and that's what I'm hanging my hat on here.

 

Ive got Caleb worries exclusively related to mental make up.

 

Maye worries exclusively related to starts, some accuracy and mechanics (2 of the 3 issues are not big to me for specific reasons)

 

Daniels worries due to age, years, meh to good production but never great till year 5, size, worries about not being thorough, tucking and running too much, frame etc

 

Penix worries based on medicals, age, and accuracy issues in earlier years.

 

JJ worries based on usage, and limited starts and arm talent (adequate but not special, maybe barely adequate)

 

Nix worries for similar reasons to Daniels and Penix, plus bad senior bowl, lots of mehs overall, could be hidden value along with Rattler, the way they are being ignored reminds me a lot of Herbert, but like x10. But I dont think Nix is close to Herbert's physical talent, Rattler is more interesting, very good early at Oklahoma, finally pretty good at end in the SEC.....

 

But again, it's all degrees, mitigating bust risk, and Daniels, Penix and JJ really set off HUGE bust risk alarms for me, not so much Caleb or Drake, and Nix is going so late it doesn't matter nearly as much, if you miss, its expected, QB hits where hes projected to go are sub 40%. Same with Rattler. 

 

Again, no absolutes or close to it, just box checking bust risks. 

[Llevron]

Jayden Daniels is in asburn today (right?) and its 80 degrees, hailing, sun shinning with heavy thunderstorms lol

 

What more of a sign do you need? Sign of what? Who knows. 

[mac8887]

I think the Dave Gardi signing means we are leaning Drake Maye for qb because both of their names start with D. And Quinn said when he got hired he wanted an explosive D. Jayden’s last name starts with D so maybe I’m wrong

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

What more of a sign do you need? Sign of what? Who knows. 

Glad to hear the weather is nice. The heat probably feels good on that extra knee cap he has hanging off the bottom of his right elbow. 

Edited April 15 by AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Llevron]

36 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

If I say Daniels checks a ton of boxes associated with future busts, I'm not saying he is a bust, I'm saying he has far too many traits associated with busts to be picked this high. Similarly as much as I love Maye, and I do, and am not bothered by the negative traits/metrics nearly as much (since I view a ton of them as basically white noise, open to the eye of the beholder),

 

I feel like this is the definition of biased and I dont know enough about you or your background to trust this opinion. I think you have, without ill intention, convinced yourself that this is true to fit the narrative you want to believe and truly believe it. I dont think that makes you a bad person or even wrong. I just dont agree and if the Commanders as an organization picks either of them I will wait to see what happens. A good example of why I dont think your opinion on this is trustworthy comes later in your post. 

 

I mean come on. You are not bothered by Mayes bad traits cause they are basically white nose and up for interpretation? Thats clear bias. 

 

36 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Daniels worries due to age, years, meh to good production but never great till year 5, size, worries about not being thorough, tucking and running too much, frame etc

 

This is so easily debunked as horse ****. His college career was obviously effected by covid. No one gives him that as an excuse, mind you. But you consistently make mention of it like its useful data. Its not. Especially without context that one of those years, his second season where growth typically happens, was literally 4 games. And the team couldn't even practice. What was he supposed to do? Do you not think that effected him and the team around him? This is what i mean by you are biased. Either you don't think of it, or you do and ignore it. But its obviously relevant to a point you continue to hammer home over and over. 

 

And I was joking about the sith thing lol. Its just a chance to throw in a Starwars reference that I thought everyone would enjoy. 

Edited April 15 by Llevron

[Rufus T Firefly]

8 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I think the Dave Gardi signing means we are leaning Drake Maye for qb because both of their names start with D. And Quinn said when he got hired he wanted an explosive D. Jayden’s last name starts with D so maybe I’m wrong

I had some explosive D last week. Had to switch up meds and now I'm fine. 

[mac8887]

5 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I had some explosive D last week. Had to switch up meds and now I'm fine. 

I hope you are talking about diarrhea, lol.

[Dah-Dee]

8 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I had some explosive D last week. Had to switch up meds and now I'm fine. 

 

1 minute ago, mac8887 said:

I hope you are talking about diarrhea, lol.

 

 

 

[TheMalcolmConnection]

I don’t post often but I’m sitting here having a beer and these comments are killing me. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I hope you are talking about diarrhea, lol.

[RWJ]

59 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Any word on JJ McCarthy's visit yet, SIP?  Has it been cancelled or is it still on and if so when.  Thanks as always in advance.    

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

2 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Any word on JJ McCarthy's visit yet, SIP?  Has it been cancelled or is it still on and if so when.  Thanks as always in advance.    

Yes. @illonepicked him up at the airport and they are on their way to Morton’s.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Daniels rated as the more likely to succeed and less likely to bust head to head versus Maye.

I dont think either will end up a bust. It is a rare year where 3 legit blue chip QB's are at the top of the draft. One will end up better than the other. But that doesnt mean the other was necessarily a bust either. 

[RWJ]

Telling you.  All these NFL analyst have NO idea who the QB is.  Click bait and their opinions.  I laugh at all the speculation.  It's truly funny!    I wild guess it will come down to draft night.  

[The Consigliere]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

I feel like this is the definition of biased and I dont know enough about you or your background to trust this opinion. I think you have, without ill intention, convinced yourself that this is true to fit the narrative you want to believe and truly believe it. I dont think that makes you a bad person or even wrong. I just dont agree and if the Commanders as an organization picks him I will wait to see what happens. A good example of why I dont think your opinion on this is trustworthy comes later in your post. 

 

I mean come one. You are not bothered by Mayes bad traits cause they are basically white nose and up for interpretation? Thats clear bias. 

 

 

This is so easily debunked as horse ****. His college career was obviously effected by covid. No one gives him that as an excuse, mind you. But you consistently make mention of it like its useful data. Its not. Especially without context that one of those years, his second season where growth typically happens, was literally 4 games. And the team couldn't even practice. What was he supposed to do? Do you not think that effected him and the team around him? This is what i mean by you are biased. Either you don't think of it, or you do and ignore it. But its obviously relevant to a point you continue to hammer home over and over. 

 

And I was joking about the sith thing lol. Its just a chance to throw in a Starwars reference that I thought everyone would enjoy. 

For Part I, I'm not as bothered because people specifically disagree. Some complain about his mechanics, some don't, and as I've mentioned before, I cannot recall many elite QB's who weren't smacked around for weird mechancis issues in their predraft process from Rivers, to Mahomes, to Herbert and almost anyone inbetween. Not only do people disagree about interpretations on footwork and throwing motion, but there also isn't any hardcore evidence that its a career killer for largely anyone. That's why I don't care. It's not because I don't care because I like Maye, it's because I've been watching for decades and I've seen a gazillion guys miss and hit, and mechanics and footwork have been critiqued add nauseum for nearly every elite QB I can think of. There are a handful that were clean, but really not many at all...It's white noise to me because I've paid attention for decades to QB's getting ripped for their feet/arm motions and then been 1000% fine, period, or at worst, like Rodgers, elite in college and elite in the pros, and maybe, or maybe not the coaching help proved the difference. So why would I care about that? Pressure to sack ratio, completion rate off platform? They are cold hard stats. You can fudge the #'s a little this way or that, but when you're one of the worst ever (Daniels) or just not good (Maye) it is what it is, you can't pretend its fine. 

 

For Part II it's just hugely freaking annoying. I've literally posted on this a billion times, even gone through the QBR rankings today. Nothing is remotely horse blank about it.

 

He was in the 50's in QBR his debut season with Arizona State.

He was inside the top 10 in his striker shorten year but the reality that it was 4 games renders it meaningless-sample size is simply too small to be helpful.

He then fell to the 40's in '21.

He then climbed into the top 20 (18th or 17th, I forget which) in '22.

 

At this point he'd climbed from seemingly a day 3 guy based on '19-'21, to a later day 2 guy based on his '19-'22 cv.

 

I've gone back and forth describing it, even this very day, not because I'm ----ing on him but because interpreting the performance depends upon what you are looking for:

His on field performance '19-'22, as I've mentioned dozens of times in posts, ranged from solid to good. I've said that a gazillion times, so there's no horse ---- involved, and even steel manned multiple people who basically alluded to him being a nothing until '23, it's not true, he was solid to good before God Mode '23.

 

The reason I plugged in meh to solid in my recent post is because that's how those seasons are regarded in terms of NFL Prospect quality, not "how good a college QB he is". He was always a good QB in college, as I've already mentioned today, the question is, how good a prospect did the NFL think his '19-'22 resume was. And we already know the answer to that, it was "meh". And then eventually, worth a day 2 pick a year ago today. 

 

The problem is, we are at times evaluating these guys based on what they did in college on the field, and also, evaluating these guys based on what that means for them as prospects. As an example, for the Daniels boosters, who rip or just aren't sold on Maye, if you think we should speak more glowingly of Daniels as a prospect based upon his '19-'22 career, what say you regarding the fact that Maye's supposedly down year is better than any of Daniels years by a good stretch other than his '23? Literally the only years Daniels came close to Maye, of appropriate sample size (4 games in '20 doesn't cut it), would be, well, just '22. In '22 he was a top 20 QB in college QBR for the first time. Maye's much easier to figure, 10th and 14th, between the two of them, his two seasons rank 2nd and 3rd on the list, while Daniels are way, way down there, two of them are sub 40th overall in QBR afterall and Maye was literally never remotely close to that bad....so....you have that.

 

Otoh, was Daniels actually bad as a teenager in '19 and '20? No, he was fine. Just not playing like a future NFL starter or day 1 or day 2 pick. Not until '22 did he make it to those lofty airs. 

[Llevron]

You have to type 300 words a minute Jesus. OK give me a minute lmao