The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SoCalSkins]

I’m in Vegas and made my Maye based picks:

 

 

 

They also now have NFL themed slots. I made $50 bucks on the Commanders:

 

[clskinsfan]

8 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

I’m in Vegas and made my Maye based picks:

Hell man. You dont need to be in Vegas to make those bets. Just pick up your damn phone. 

[SoCalSkins]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Hell man. You dont need to be in Vegas to make those bets. Just pick up your damn phone. 

Not in California!!! The Indian gaming has prevented app based sports betting. 

[clskinsfan]

8 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

Not in California!!! The Indian gaming has prevented app based sports betting. 

I am just going to keep my mouth shut about CA so I dont get a strike against me.

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

I’m in Vegas and made my Maye based picks:

 

 

 

They also now have NFL themed slots. I made $50 bucks on the Commanders:

 

 

 

I say if you're gonna make a crazy go for broke hopelessly ridiculous bet make the payoff worth the effort...

 

 

 

 

Should I push the button or waste the 20 bucks on something silly, like my blood pressure meds?

 

 

Edited April 7 by CommanderInTheRye

[SoCalSkins]

2 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

I say if you're gonna make a crazy go for broke hopelessly ridiculous bet make the payoff worth the effort...

 

 

 

 

Should I push the button or play it safe and use the 20 bucks on something sensible like my blood pressure meds?

I plan to go to any and every Super Bowl we play in. I consider these futures bets as insurance to cover the cost to go. 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

Forget the super bowl bet, im putting my money on our guy getting ROTY

 

might throw an over on ekeler’s total touchdowns too, i bet they’ll have it real low

Edited April 7 by WashingtonRedWolves

[Anselmheifer]

13 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

It seems like every PFF metric favors Maye over Daniels and a number of them, May over Williams.

[mistertim]

I assume that below 9.5 aDOT was an average of all seasons, right? In 2023 Daniels had an aDOT of 10.5 with Maye at 11.0.

[HTTRDynasty]

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I assume that below 9.5 aDOT was an average of all seasons, right? In 2023 Daniels had an aDOT of 10.5 with Maye at 11.0.

Yes, career stats. 

[Whiskeypeet]

3 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Even harder to see a trade down happen at pick 2 in a draft w/ 3 blue chip prospects.

Pick #3 is the pressure point to get into the party.

 

I agree that is exceedingly unlikely we move off the spot and I got chances of us getting JJ in the Caleb range.

 

 

I just need the Pats to hold their water and take the 3rd guy so the Giants don't get the oppo to. I'm pretty sure New England will but a Godfather deal is a Godfather deal.

Agreed, the trade down is unlikely.  Personally, I'd love it if it were a move down to get in place for Penix.  I think he will be the best of the bunch. My feeling is that his injury risks are outweighed by the fact he is already a processor and talented pocket passer.  They all have bust risk, his in my opinion is less.  I'd do it because I think he's the best prospect and the team would get the draft haul.  To be clear, I'd expect the trade down compensation to be MASSIVE.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

8 minutes ago, Whiskeypeet said:

Agreed, the trade down is unlikely.  Personally, I'd love it if it were a move down to get in place for Penix.  I think he will be the best of the bunch. My feeling is that his injury risks are outweighed by the fact he is already a processor and talented pocket passer.  They all have bust risk, his in my opinion is less.  I'd do it because I think he's the best prospect and the team would get the draft haul.  To be clear, I'd expect the trade down compensation to be MASSIVE.  

Penix at 11 would be my guess if that scenario played out. Not sure adding #23 and a 1st next year would move the needle much though. 

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, Whiskeypeet said:

Agreed, the trade down is unlikely.  Personally, I'd love it if it were a move down to get in place for Penix.  I think he will be the best of the bunch. My feeling is that his injury risks are outweighed by the fact he is already a processor and talented pocket passer.  They all have bust risk, his in my opinion is less.  I'd do it because I think he's the best prospect and the team would get the draft haul.  To be clear, I'd expect the trade down compensation to be MASSIVE.  

 

Penix may have a higher floor (though part of that is having played for 6 years in college) but I think his ceiling is definitely lower too. Then you have the age issue (he's almost 24) as well as the massive injury history and the fact that he was behind the best OL in the nation and fell apart once he was against a team that was able to get consistent pressure on him in the championship game.

 

Trading back while having access to more talented prospects who are younger (especially Maye) and with more upside would be nonsensical. Pass.

[CommanderInTheRye]

PREDICTION: If Penix is still in the league, as a  starter, in 5 years he  will be universally recognized as the best passer that came out of this draft.

 

However, that's a very critical and precarious "if" that I inserted in the paragraph above.

 

The greatest predictor of future injury, is a past propensity for injury.

 

By all reports his medicals are "better than expected" and that sounds promising, on the surface. 

 

However, Penix has had multiple acl reconstructions; and unfortunately for him, at some point diminishing returns becomes a harsh reality.

 

Surgery may will be a non-viable solution if he has another  ligament failure and it's for this reason that I would be hesitant to draft him, and I certainly wouldn't pick him in the top 4 picks. 

 

But I'm sure as hell rooting for him (assuming he doesn't end up in the NFC East, of course).

 

 

 

Edited April 7 by CommanderInTheRye

[Whiskeypeet]

7 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

So my Red Flag guys are clearly, Daniels, JJ and Nix, and my come aboard guys are Williams, Maye and Penix, but Penix, cleared or not, rarely finished seasons healthy, period, regardless of whether he's healthy now, his CV says his current health is against his trend lines historically, most of the Penix bust risk to me is all about health. If he's healthy, he will almost certainly be the 3rd best QB in the class, with a chance at being the 2nd best. If he's not healthy, he goes straight down the injury related bust basket which comes with an asterisk.

 Great post, and I agree with you about Maye, Prefer him myself.  But you are off base about Penix's injuries.  He is healthy now and has been the last 2 years.  His injuries all occurred while he was at Indiana and he hasn't had an issue since then. To say he has rarely finished a season healthy is just false.

12 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Penix at 11 would be my guess if that scenario played out. Not sure adding #23 and a 1st next year would move the needle much though. 

Well, if thats the limit of the package for trading down, I'd not do it and take Maye.  Really don't want any part of Daniels, although I can see his floor might not be poor.  Again, prefer Penix of the prospects but part of that is definitely the value that would be added from the trade down.  If the value in the trade isn't there, the move is questionable for me.

[Whiskeypeet]

8 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Penix may have a higher floor (though part of that is having played for 6 years in college) but I think his ceiling is definitely lower too. Then you have the age issue (he's almost 24) as well as the massive injury history and the fact that he was behind the best OL in the nation and fell apart once he was against a team that was able to get consistent pressure on him in the championship game.

 

Trading back while having access to more talented prospects who are younger (especially Maye) and with more upside would be nonsensical. Pass.

We can disagree here, its good. I think Penix has a higher floor and ceiling.  But don't disagree with the injury risk, can't be dismissed. Notwithstanding, he's been healthy for 2 straight years and might have that behind him.  Nonetheless, the injuries happened so they must be considered. No way i would take him at 2.

[Warhead36]

You don't pass up on a prospect like Maye for a prospect like Penix when you have a clean chance at Maye(clean as in not having to mortgage the future). 

 

I like Penix. I think if he goes to a good team he can have a solid career. He'll never elevate a franchise though, but put him on a team with a good line and weapons and he can do work. I think he'd be perfect for Miami. He's probably at least 90% as good as Tua already and will end up being like 10% of the cost(assuming Tua gets a big extension).

 

Here are my updated rankings:

 

Tier 1: 

-Caleb Williams

 

(small gap)

 

Tier 2: 

-Drake Maye

 

(big gap)

 

Tier 3:

-JJ McCarthy

-Michael Penix jr

 

(medium gap)

 

Tier 4:

-Jayden Daniels

 

(big gap)

 

Tier 5:

-Bo Nix

 

Tier 6:

-the rest

Edited April 7 by Warhead36

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, Whiskeypeet said:

We can disagree here, its good. I think Penix has a higher floor and ceiling.  But don't disagree with the injury risk, can't be dismissed. Notwithstanding, he's been healthy for 2 straight years and might have that behind him.  Nonetheless, the injuries happened so they must be considered. No way i would take him at 2.

 

That's fine, though I think the lack of injury could partially be due to being behind such a dominant OL and not getting hit very often. He got hit several times in the championship vs Michigan and was limping by the end of the game. So yeah I have serious doubts about him remaining healthy behind a non-dominant OL.

[Warhead36]

I love Penix's release and overall throwing motion. Honestly if he were two years younger and didn't have an injury history, it'd be VERY close between him and Maye.

Edited April 7 by Warhead36

[clskinsfan]

9 hours ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Should I push the button

That is probably a better bet than the 2024 SB win. Long time to collect it though. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Penix may have a higher floor (though part of that is having played for 6 years in college) but I think his ceiling is definitely lower too. Then you have the age issue (he's almost 24) as well as the massive injury history and the fact that he was behind the best OL in the nation and fell apart once he was against a team that was able to get consistent pressure on him in the championship game.

 

Trading back while having access to more talented prospects who are younger (especially Maye) and with more upside would be nonsensical. Pass.

I don't think the national title game is a relevant argument, it's just the most recent game.

 

Here's who he played as a starter before the national title game:

'19:

Michigan State

'20:

Michigan State

Penn State

Michigan

Ohio State

'21:

Penn State (injured)

'22:

Michigan State

UCLA

Oregon

Texas

'23:

Michigan State

Oregon

Oregon again

Texas

Michigan

 

That's a lot of games against the best sides in the Big 10 and Pac 12. Michigan State, not what it used to be, but still a problem, 4 times, Michigan twice, Penn State twice, Ohio State once, Oregon 3 times, Texas twice, UCLA etc. He didn't kill it in all of the games, but he did perform quite well in most of them and quite often superb. Yeah, he laid an egg in the title game, but you look through that collection of opponents and you see a litany of legit, difficult tests, which he passed. I am not interested because of age and medical flags, but competition isn't a concern. I don't think the title game meant much of anything oin that context and I have a hard time understanding why a guy who played Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State 9/10 times (if you include 19 attempts as a teen in '18 against Michigan State). None of that includes 3 contests with Oregon in 16 months. There's a lot of info, I'm baffled at why people looked at a national title game and wrote him off. Dude literally played Michigan and Ohio State back to back in '20 and went 57/101 with 8 TD's and 1 pick and he was Quarterbacking freaking INDIANA. It just strikes me as crazy.

 

And btw, I don't want him either, but, the national title game is a total nonsense argument in my view. The meds and age issues? Those bother me, some of the metrics too, but not the title game, he played more than a dozen big time games before that and was totally fine, including playing at freaking Ohio State, and throwing 5 TD's against 1 pick in that game. It's kind of insane. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Relevant:

 

Not sure if the competition argument for Penix elevates him as much as people may think. 

[Jags]

8 hours ago, MrJL said:

So like we get a call from the Chargers at five.  They want MHJ and want to jump the Cards.  So we trade down to five, then the Pats take Maye.  The Cards might trade out but the teams most likely to be interested in that spot seem to be into JJ

 

Of course the best thing if we trade would be to the Cards.  Then the Pats take Maye and we take Daniels

 

There is zero chance anyone is paying QB prices to move up to 2 to take a receiver.  MHJ isn't that much better than the next couple WRs in the draft.

[MrJL]

3 hours ago, Jags said:

 

There is zero chance anyone is paying QB prices to move up to 2 to take a receiver.  MHJ isn't that much better than the next couple WRs in the draft.

 

who says they have to?  We're talking two or three spots and a decent chance to still get who we want.  One extra first, or a second and third would still be worth it