The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SkinsFTW]

4 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

You’re basically starting to talk around Mayes issues by justifying sitting him in 2024. 
 

 

 

Daniels has more issues than Maye.

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, Going Commando said:

We're not going to sit the QB we draft at #2, and Drake Maye is way better prepared to deal with the dysfunctional offense and crappy protection we're going to have next year than Jayden "I need four seconds in a clean pocket to make a decision" Daniels.

That's one way to go as well. No matter how bad our offense might be, it'll be 10x better than what he had at UNC(even relatively speaking). And there is something to be said about trial by fire.

 

Let me be clear: I'm not advocating sitting Maye. My preference is to play him day one. Name him the starter QB1 and throw the entire playbook at him right away. BUT I can see the rationale behind sitting Maye.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

7 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Who cares? We're not going to the Super Bowl this season. If this FO believes that we could pick one guy and start him right away but that he's not necessarily going to be special or a great QB for a long time, or we could pick the other guy and he might need to sit at first but he'll be an elite QB for the next 10-15 years, then we pick the second guy 10 times out of 10.

 

I have no clue why some people are so obsessed with winning right now or starting the QB right now. It doesn't matter. We're not currently a contender and we'd have another 4 years before we'd have to pay him anyway.

 

You go with the long term play.

Why not? The texans turned it around completely within one year thanks to their stud rookie QB in stroud. That's the model we should be trying to emulate and look at the moves they've been able to make precisely because of his rookie deal

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

Daniels has more issues than Maye.

Not only that, but his issues are mostly innate and not really fixable. You gotta play him day one so you can take advantage of his unique gifts. There is basically no benefit to having him sit. His value is that he's more polished and NFL ready and his playstyle means you have to capitalize now because he's more likely to decline faster.

[cakmoney61]

11 minutes ago, Conn said:

You aren’t “wrong”, you’ve just lost perspective. Not a rare thing. It means you need to zoom out, mentally speaking, and reassert yourself in reality before diving back into the mostly made-up minutia of the 24/7 NFL draft cycle.

Honestly, the doubt comes when I come to this specific thread in Extremeskins.  But I need to hear what the people "here" think, because what they say is well thought out so it matters.  Unfortunately, there is a bias that folks have about their preference of these two QBs that comes out in some of the posters.  These folks are very knowledgeable and are great debaters who make their points with conviction. 

 

The negative I'm hearing is not hyperbole.  A lot of what's being said is facts, so I'm left shook up.  But another poster said to trust that the coaches can and will correct their deficiencies.  So I will.

[SkinsFTW]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Not only that, but his issues are mostly innate and not really fixable. You gotta play him day one so you can take advantage of his unique gifts. There is basically no benefit to having him sit. His value is that he's more polished and NFL ready and his playstyle means you have to capitalize now because he's more likely to decline faster.

 

Dude is going to be broke in two by week 6.

[Conn]

15 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

We’re not picking a player to sit out a full season. No chance.

You aren’t listening, you simply want to make the point you want to make. You’ve been doing that more frequently lately. Read what I said again. I’m arguing you don’t take that into consideration (or don’t weight it heavily, at least) because there’s actually no way to know until you get them in the building permanently. You’ve already committed at that point. 
 

None of the top prospects this year “need” to sit for a year btw. Anyone saying that is a dummy. They all have different flaws that will take time to fix, and will need to be hidden by the playcalling in the meantime. But they can all play right away, it’s just a matter of what the staff thinks is best for them reaching their ceiling. 

[Going Commando]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Not only that, but his issues are mostly innate and not really fixable. You gotta play him day one so you can take advantage of his unique gifts. There is basically no benefit to having him sit. His value is that he's more polished and NFL ready and his playstyle means you have to capitalize now because he's more likely to decline faster.

 

Yeah.  Sitting Daniels would be more about trying to build high level protection up for him to give him a better chance of success.  He needs it more than any of the other top prospects.  But there is only so much that can be done on that front in year one.

[Conn]

10 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Honestly, the doubt comes when I come to this specific thread in Extremeskins.  But I need to hear what the people "here" think, because what they say is well thought out so it matters.  Unfortunately, there is a bias that folks have about their preference of these two QBs that comes out in some of the posters.  These folks are very knowledgeable and are great debaters who make their points with conviction. 

 

The negative I'm hearing is not hyperbole.  A lot of what's being said is facts, so I'm left shook up.  But another poster said to trust that the coaches can and will correct their deficiencies.  So I will.

There are some biases, sure, but it’s not just that. When you’re comparing two guys directly that we have a 100% chance at drafting, people who dig in are going to focus on pointing out flaws. It’s natural. It doesn’t mean there aren’t tons of positives. This is a historically good (in terms of perception) draft class at the top. Any of them can bust because that’s the nature of the thing and QB has a high bust rate no matter how good a prospect is. But don’t get so sucked into the “discourse” that you lose sight of the bigger picture imo. Don’t get so invested in one guy or another that it’s possible to actually be disappointed in one of them on draft night. Because we’re lucky to have a shot at either. These are the best prospects we could realistically ever hope for. There is no such thing as a perfect prospect, and to get a shot at the ones that MAY exist is nearly impossible and a once a decade type thing at most. These are excellent prospects. Zoom out.

Edited April 5 by Conn

[mistertim]

13 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Why not? The texans turned it around completely within one year thanks to their stud rookie QB in stroud. That's the model we should be trying to emulate and look at the moves they've been able to make precisely because of his rookie deal

 

Taking the exception as the rule is usually not a good proposition.

 

The chances that we'll suddenly turn into a SB contender in year 1 are miniscule. If our FO (again, key word...IF) believes that the best option is to pick Maye and let him sit a while before starting but that once he fixes his issues he has a great shot at being an elite QB for the next 10-15 years, and that Daniels doesn't have the same long term upside, then you always go for the long term play.

 

I don't think Maye needs to sit. Or if someone thinks Maye has enough issues to sit then the same could definitely be said for Daniels. I think they could both definitely start right away. But I'm also not the coach or GM of the Commanders.

Edited April 5 by mistertim

[cakmoney61]

How could I not have doubts about Daniels after reading some of these last several posts?  Really.  How?

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, mudhog said:

There's something in the whole 'Daniel's has a clear peg advantage' to me that doesn't add up. And the fact that Keim is involved in this in any way is troubling to me. It seems to give a certain bona-fides to the echo-chamber of the NFL that we are going Daniels when we haven't given any indication either way.

 

 

What doesn't add up about it?  And what is he involved in?  Making things up to prop up Daniels?  If so why would he care and why would he do a major detour of that kind in his 20 year plus career?

 

2 hours ago, mudhog said:

So, to my point, Keim seems to be going against his own instincts on this and NOT verifying it 7 times, but hollowly parroting the rest of the dipsticks around him. The simple fact that HE says it gives it the cred. 

 

 

How is he going against his instintcts?  He said he talked to a bunch of coaches and that's what they said.  There is zero to verify 7 times.  He's talking directly to coaches and that's what he's being told by them.

 

2 hours ago, mudhog said:

I'm not a scout, but I've watched a crap-load of football in my life and I trust my own judgement. The checks are heavily weighted for Maye on my page. With all of us here, I've felt the hope, and then the crushing despair of RG3 in 2012. I don't want another QB whos instinct is to bag-ass when things look just a bit sketchy. I want a thumper like Sam Howell, who stands tall in the pocket and keeps his head up and down range and find his targets even though he knows he's gonna take the hit. For me that's Maye.
 

 

i have watched a ton, too, as most of us have here.  Look, like you I prefer Maye.  But my opinion is not fact.  No one in NFL history has cracked the QB code for the draft.  No one.  If one of us here cracks it we'd be fools to spend our time here -- we should make millions working for an NFL team, write a book and go to town on the subject.

 

2 hours ago, mudhog said:

The arrogance of this constantly chirping sports punditry is breathtaking. And for Keim to apparently legitimize or validate some of these 'really good offensive minds' is gonna come back and bite him in the ass if we really do pick Maye. To the infamy of his name. Just my 2 cents.

 

 

He's not saying there is no chance they take Maye.  As for him looking bad, he'd only look bad if they took McCarthy.

 

All he is saying is he spoken to a number of coaches without a stake in this draft at QB, some of whom he trusts their offensive minds.  They've all told him Daniels is the better QB.  Standig has sort of said a varaition of the same thing but i don't recall if he said all or most.

 

Can the coaches be wrong and people like you and I are right?  Sure.  But we don't know until we know when it unfolds.

 

All he is doing is saying that he has talked to numerous coaches and they all prefer Daniels.  As for you or me or whomever prefers Maye, not liking that.  That's fine.  But it has zero to do with mock drafter scuttlebutt.

Edited April 5 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsarethebest]

9 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Taking the exception as the rule is usually not a good proposition.

 

The chances that we'll suddenly turn into a SB contender in year 1 are miniscule. If our FO (again, key word...IF) believes that the best option is to pick Maye and let him sit a while before starting but that once he fixes his issues he has a great shot at being an elite QB for the next 10-15 years, and that Daniels doesn't have the same long term upside, then you always go for the long term play.

 

I don't think Maye needs to sit. Or if someone thinks Maye has enough issues to sit then the same could definitely be said for Daniels. I think they could both definitely start right away. But I'm also not the coach or GM of the Commanders.

Daniels has nearly five years of experience and over 50 games played under his belt.  Maye has only two seasons and less than 20 games.  That itself already points to Daniels being more ready to play and less likely to need to sit than Maye.

 

but I’m sure you’ll find a way to discount this pretty objective piece of evidence which favors Daniels and perhaps somehow spin it in Maye’s favor.  

Edited April 5 by skinsarethebest

[clskinsfan]

11 hours ago, Llevron said:

I found this cut up of all his pass and running plays.

It sthe same tape we have already all watched. If he gets touched in the pocket he is going down. Gonna need an OLine for him. But that is true with any QB. 

[Est.1974]

24 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

Daniels has more issues than Maye.

Sounds like they both have flaws. That wasn’t the discussion point. 

[Dah-Dee]

9 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

Dude is going to be broke in two by week 6.

 

I, um, think maybe this is the kind of negative hyperbole @cakmoney61 was referring too lol.

 

I do think NFL teams are well aware of the injury risk Daniels poses, and whoever drafts him will have some kind of plan to protect him until/unless he learns to protect himself better. I thought it was telling when LSU HC Brian Kelly said the first question teams are asking him about Daniels is, "will he slide?"

 

I do question whether Daniels will be able to adjust. Specifically, I find concerning his very strong tendency to run vs. pass when he breaks the pocket, where he only throws like 20% of the time and is ranked practically last in that stat among all college QBs over the last 8-10 years; and his P2S ratio, widely considered a very "sticky" stat when projecting NFL success, which didn't get under the Mendoza-line-ish 20% mark in *any* of his 5 (4.5?) college seasons. 

 

Because of those tendencies, and maybe also precisely because of what happened with RG3, I expect his NFL team to be very cautious with how Daniels is used initially, and so it seems unlikely, particuarly given his ability to avoid major injury during a long college career, even with his well-documented danger-zone traits, and despite the bigger/faster defenses he'll face versus even the SEC, that he'll be 'broken' in his first year.

[DogofWar1]

28 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

So you want Mariota starting for a season. Find that hard to believe. Didn’t take you as an F- guy.

 

I mean, the list of QBs he listed who sat is a baller list and we'd be lucky if our guy turned into any of them.

 

Here's the thing about NFL rookie contracts too, all the stuff about signing bonuses and the like it baked in.

 

If we were under the pre-2010 CBA where Sam Bradford gets a bajillion dollars and is a top 5 paid QB out the gate, then sure, you want immediate results.

 

But our #2 pick this year in 2024 will cost less than Bradford's contract from 2010, and will cost us roughly the equivalent of a decent starter.  Oh and we have tons of cap to spare.

 

The costs nowadays are low enough that you can afford to do whatever is needed to ensure that you get that full 12-15 years of success out of the guy.  If that means sit, sit him.

[Skinsinparadise]

28 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

We're not going to sit the QB we draft at #2, and Drake Maye is way better prepared to deal with the dysfunctional offense and crappy protection we're going to have next year than Jayden "I need four seconds in a clean pocket to make a decision" Daniels.

 

Agree, I have made similar points.  Maye having a crap O line with subpar weapons is a good prep for the NFL.

 

While i am firmly in the take Maye crowd, I feel like i might be higher on Daniels than some of the take Maye crowd here.  But I contend its Maye with the higher floor not Daniels.    

 

Daniels had everything work in his favor.  Maye did not.  Maye needs to fix his footwork but aside from that he makes NFL throws at a bigger rate than Daniels.

Edited April 5 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

24 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Not only that, but his issues are mostly innate and not really fixable. You gotta play him day one so you can take advantage of his unique gifts. There is basically no benefit to having him sit. His value is that he's more polished and NFL ready and his playstyle means you have to capitalize now because he's more likely to decline faster.

Nothing to suggest his ability will decline faster.

[Going Commando]

I want to know why people think that Jayden Daniels is the better option to play in year one than Drake Maye, despite the fact he needed four previous years of starting experience and a stacked offense to be as good as Drake Maye was in his first year as a starter on a crappy mid-major?  But even setting that aside, it's right there in the film.  Maye is instinctive, and already super advanced at managing pressure and throwing guys open and creating from behind the line of scrimmage for a college prospect.  Daniels had an eternity in the pocket to make plays last year, and even still, he wasn't good at making decisions on schedule and too often either pulled it and ran or took a sack.  The kid is going to struggle really hard to manage pressure for us next year, and he's not going to be making the kinds of plays through the air that he did last year--presumably what we'd be drafting him for.  We all know what would happen.  His confidence would wane and he'd become a 1-2 run QB and start taking a bunch of damage, basically the same progression that Justin Fields went through.  Only Jayden does not have Fields's strength.

[skinsarethebest]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree, I have made similar points.  Maye having a crap O line with subpar weapons is a good prep for the NFL.

 

but you know what’s also good prep for the NFL?  
 

Actual games played.  In this case, Daniels has nearly 3x as many as Maye.  And has actually seemed to improve over those span of games rather than regressing.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, Going Commando said:

I want to know why people think that Jayden Daniels is the better option to play in year one than Drake Maye, despite the fact he needed four previous years of starting experience and a stacked offense to be as good as Drake Maye was in his first year as a starter on a crappy mid-major?  But even setting that aside, it's right there in the film.  Maye is instinctive, and already super advanced at managing pressure and throwing guys open and creating from behind the line of scrimmage for a college prospect.  Daniels had an eternity in the pocket to make plays last year, and even still, he wasn't good at making decisions on schedule and too often either pulled it and ran or took a sack.  The kid is going to struggle really hard to manage pressure for us next year, and he's not going to be making the kinds of plays through the air that he did last year--presumably what we'd be drafting him for.  We all know what would happen.  His confidence would wane and he'd become a 1-2 run QB and start taking a bunch of damage, basically the same progression that Justin Fields went through.  Only Jayden does not have Fields's strength.

 

As a passer, I agree Maye is much more advanced as for making NFL throws:  tight windows, throws with anticipation, off platform, 2nd level, etc.  

 

The one thing I'll give Daniels on that front that as a run threat that's a crutch he can use from the jump.  

 

Both seem like hard workers and I'd bet on both of them being successful.  But I am with you on the idea that Maye is ready to start now.

 

[Conn]

18 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

How could I not have doubts about Daniels after reading some of these last several posts?  Really.  How?

Why is the base assumption that you shouldn’t have doubts about a prospect even if they’re good? Every player has a chance to bust. QB’s all have a high chance to bust.

 

There is no such thing as a “sure thing”, especially at QB. If that’s what you’re looking for you’re just gonna stress yourself out. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, skinsarethebest said:

but you know what’s also good prep for the NFL?  
 

Actual games played.  In this case, Daniels has nearly 3x as many as Maye.  And has actually seemed to improve over those span of games rather than regressing.

 

It's good prep.  But throwing with anticipation, making contested throws (tight windows), throwing off platform, throwing on the 2nd level in between the numbers are NFL staples.  And yes Maye is 21.  But the number of type of throws he made were much more varied IMO than Daniels.  He did make a large share of 2nd level throws, did throw with anticipation, did throw off platform, did make tight window throws.

 

 

Edited April 5 by Skinsinparadise

[Dah-Dee]

6 minutes ago, skinsarethebest said:

but you know what’s also good prep for the NFL?  
 

Actual games played.  In this case, Daniels has nearly 3x as many as Maye.  And has actually seemed to improve over those span of games rather than regressing.

 

 

Yeah, I've seen analysts making that point generally, not about Daniels specifically, but saying that the way college and NFL offenses have become more similar in recent years, having an 'older' prospect with more games played is not necessarily considered a negative anymore. It's really interesting and thought-provoking, good stuff.

 

But I do think one counterpoint there is, prospects who have played more games also provide a large sample size to see problems that could migrate to the NFL, as well as the player's ability to improve in those areas.

 

With Daniels, for example, we haven't seen any improvement in the stable metric of pressure-to-sack ratio; it's consistently been a red flag throughout the entirety of his long college career.

 

WIth Maye, one issue is he's only played two of the last four years, and so we only see a little regression from year 1 to year 2, although neither year was bad, so he's more of an unknown - *can* he improve in problematic areas? We don't really know.

Edited April 5 by Dah-Dee