The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[FrFan]

6 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

We’ve had this hours ago, stop pushing you’re own tune SIP 

Here is why, I guess he's got a free pass doesn't he ?

 

[DiscoBob]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Are we gonna get his receivers and OL too?

 

3 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

What does that mean ? Would be good to know what your are getting at with that ?

 

I think it's pretty clear that he's suggesting that Jayden Daniels performance was largely attributable to his surrounding cast.

 

You may disagree, but it's a reasonable take.

[Est.1974]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

He was throwing to two 1st round WRs who made the DBs covering them look stupid on a routine basis and he had one of the better OLs in college football that usually gave him lots of time to throw.

Oh well, he must be **** then.

[HogsVa7]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Are we gonna get his receivers and OL too?

Ask Joe Burrow. He had a stacked oline and recievers at LSU and doing just fine in the NFL.

[Est.1974]

Just now, DiscoBob said:

 

 

I think it's pretty clear that he's suggesting that Jayden Daniels performance was largely attributable to his surrounding cast.

 

You may disagree, but it's a reasonable take.

Totally agree, but is not a definitive take.

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, Est.1974 said:

Oh well, he must be **** then.

 

Never said he was ****. But the supporting cast is something to be taken into account, just like any aspect of scouting. The point is that he was often throwing to very open guys and mostly on vertical routes on the boundaries. He rarely had to make tight window or anticipation throws. He's not going to have that luxury in the NFL.

 

That doesn't at all mean he can't do it in the NFL, but it's a legitimate concern when it comes to taking a guy that high.

[DiscoBob]

4 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Totally agree, but is not a definitive take.

 

Of course.

 

At the risk of stating the obvious, there are historical examples on both sides of this argument, so merely citing them achieves nothing.  Folks are gonna have to go 2-3 layers below that to make their case, and even then, it's hardly sure fire.

Edited February 11 by DiscoBob

[Mooka]

Daniels is a great prospect and I'd be super excited to land him at #2, but its going to be really difficult to protect him. 

 

We have no O-Line, weak WR core, non-existent TE group.... etc. 

 

This is also basically year 1 with the new ownership group, FO and coaching. There's no way our #2 overall QB is going to start the season on the bench or in some run-heavy offense where they bring him along slowly. 

 

[Est.1974]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

Never said he was ****. But the supporting cast is something to be taken into account, just like any aspect of scouting. 

Scout the player.

 

I’ve never mentioned the supporting cast. Let’s downgrade Daniels because he had a strong team, let’s upgrade Maye because his OL sucked and receivers dropped 44 balls in however long. That’s not my narrative. This place is full of it though….

 

 

1 minute ago, DiscoBob said:

 

Of course.

 

At the risk of stating the obvious, there are historical examples on both sides of this argument, so merely citing them achieves nothing.  Folks are gonna have to go 2-3 layers below that to make their case, and even then, it's hardly sure fire.

I’m sure we all agree that we need a QB, and that we seem well set do something….

[seantaylor=god]

46 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Maye is Joe Burrow now.

 

Ok I take it all back, I’m in 

Pretty sure he meant as far as how Burrow was viewed in the draft as far as a sure thing vs potential project, not as an NFL comp. He’s written pretty extensively about Maye in the past. 
 

Maye looks a lot like Josh Allen to me as a high level comp and Jordan Love on the low end. 
 

Intangibles and work ethic, high end tools, production at young age, processing and playmaking, all make me pretty bullish on Maye. But any QB can fail, and if he does we take our shot again in a few years. 

[Skinsinparadise]

27 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

We’ve had this hours ago, stop pushing you’re own tune SIP 

 

I missed, it.  People repost stuff I and others previously posted all the time but i don't call them out for it with rare exceptions, I figure they just missed it.  😎

 

I got no tune.  If they want to trade up for Caleb, do it.  Where we disagree is that its Caleb or bust -- trade down, etc.

 

I guess our other disagreement, i don't think the Bears will trade the pick.  You seem to think they will if I read you right?  I'll bet whatever you want on that one.

Edited February 11 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Scout the player.

 

I’ve never mentioned the supporting cast. Let’s downgrade Daniels because he had a strong team, let’s upgrade Maye because his OL sucked and receivers dropped 44 balls in however long. That’s not my narrative. This place is full of it though….

 

It's not so much downgrading or upgrading based on the team, but taking into account certain things about the team that may have contributed to how the QB played. Daniels was throwing to guys who were often very open, often on vertical routes, mostly on the boundaries. You don't see many tight window or anticipation throws in his cutups.

 

That's not his fault...the guys were open, throw it to them. But in the NFL those kinds of tight window and anticipation throws are going to be the norm. So then the job of the scouts is to try and decide whether he'll be able to evolve into making those throws regularly vs. what he did in college.

 

Same thing with Maye. Yeah he had a pretty **** supporting cast. But how much did that contribute to him playing hero ball and feeling like he had to make something out of nothing vs. him just making dumb decisions which will continue into the NFL? Again, scouts will have to take that into account and decide.

[Warhead36]

13 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

It's not so much downgrading or upgrading based on the team, but taking into account certain things about the team that may have contributed to how the QB played. Daniels was throwing to guys who were often very open, often on vertical routes, mostly on the boundaries. You don't see many tight window or anticipation throws in his cutups.

 

That's not his fault...the guys were open, throw it to them. But in the NFL those kinds of tight window and anticipation throws are going to be the norm. So then the job of the scouts is to try and decide whether he'll be able to evolve into making those throws regularly vs. what he did in college.

 

Same thing with Maye. Yeah he had a pretty **** supporting cast. But how much did that contribute to him playing hero ball and feeling like he had to make something out of nothing vs. him just making dumb decisions which will continue into the NFL? Again, scouts will have to take that into account and decide.

Thank you. Someone gets it.

[Commander202]

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I don't recall seeing much "hate" in here for McCarthy. It's mostly that he's a bit of an unknown as he was on a stacked team that was very run and defense oriented, and he also had an excellent OL, so he wasn't really asked to do a ton.

 

He does have some pretty good attributes from the cutups I've watched though. I'd say at the moment he's probably a mid to late 1st round guy. Someone will take a chance on him in the hope that his smallish sample size will be able to expand and he'll be able to handle a bigger load in the NFL.

 

And I don't want us to trade down unless GMAP and the coaches have poor grades on Maye and Daniels and a high one on McCarthy. No trading down just for the sake of getting more picks.

I seen it mostly on Twitter . I like him over Daniels at this point and I think he’s going to be the guy for us  if we can’t get Caleb . 
 

[The Consigliere]

18 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Sometimes a year out is predictable.  Sometimes it’s not.  
 

Nobody saw Joe Burrow as a top pick going into 2020, it was all “tank for Tua.”  
 

And Howell was a possible #1 overall and top 10 pick with other QBs in the area going into 2022, and that fell apart.

 

Predicting the current draft is hard enough.  Predicting next years is damn near impossible.  Even for the experts.  

I kinda disagree. I think there's a general consensus on what it looks like at the top of the positional tiers, and then there are always a handful of surprises in each positional cohort, both for good and bad. I can go through them, but in terms of surprises, there are some, but not so much. I have my eye, in terms of surprise, on the dude (Cam Ward) that withdrew from the draft and went to Miami instead. I'm curious how he'll go. But I do agree w/the general sentiment there will be surprises. But to the extent to turn a "meh" to "bad" class into a good one? Nope. I've never seen that happen ever. Incremental changes yes, but not a huge take over. Scouts know who they got there eye on and while there are always surprise breakouts year to year, it doesn't happen in large quantities pretty much ever. 

[Warhead36]

I just don't think McCarthy presents much upside. He just has the look and feel of a career journeyman backup or best case, average starter who bounces around for a bit because of his intangibles and coachability.

 

I want a home run swing at a real superstar QB. The guy that can have us playing nationally televised games and making deep playoff runs every year.

 

Maye is that guy for me, but if we decide to go with Daniels, I can get behind that too(but would be very much concerned about his red flags). If we trade up for Williams, I'd be stoked about the talent but worried about the diva factor. But at the very least, all three represent a real true blue home run swing that we haven't attempted since 2012. 

 

Any other option just has us spinning in more mediocrity and I'm done with that train.

[HTTSkins]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

He had a different coordinator last year of course before being in Longo's offense for consecutive seasons before that.  He lost IMO his only good WR. 

 

And he was under pressure a lot. I think that lent to some bad habits, he drifted away from pressure, dudes weren't open and he tried to make some superman off platform throws -- and at times he succeeded but he's no Caleb on that front.   And his mechanics on the move are hit and miss.

 

When you watch Drake with some protection when he can settle in the pocket -- his mechanics look clean to me.   His shoulder-feet are aligned, he steps into his throws, etc.

Will work all day to learn what he can and no off the field crap either. Add a cannon arm with good size and I see why Kitchens called him the best he’s ever been around 

[The Consigliere]

18 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know just like the schedule.  We just think the Bills are better than Cardinals but 50-50 chance it could be the opposite.  I recall your takes that we don't know anything.  And everything can be the opposite of what we expect.

 

If you said instead, 25% will change, 75% will likely be similar to last year, you'd have me nodding.  But you are a radical on the idea that everything is entirely different than what we expect.  We had epic debates on that.  I know you have with @Koolblue13 too on the same subject.  

 

But as a dude that has lived and died with every draft, yes there are surprises but generally its rarely been crazy.  yes a Kyler Murray or a Joe Burrow can emerge out of nowhere.  But its rare that multiple Joe Burrows emerge.

Yeah voice is just wrong on this. 

Look at Devy rankings of guys 1-2 years out from college. Yep they get them wrong on some guys every class, but they don't get much right. In '18 they thought Harry, Metcalf, AJ Brown were the big 3 WR's in '19, and they were a year later, in '20 they thought it was Lamb, Jeudy, and then a drop off, the surprises were Jefferson and Ruggs, in '21 they thought it was Chase, Devonta Smith, and it was them, in '22 they thought it was London, Wilson, Olave, Pickens, the surprise if I remember right was Jameson Williams, and maybe Burks, I can't remember. If you look at the top 4 or 5 projected guys a year to 18 months out, they typically get 75-80% right and there's usually 1 guy in bigger cohorts to 2, and in smaller positional cohorts like RB and QB it's usually at most 1 surprise. WR can be 2+, but QB and RB, the surprise is usually limited to 1 if that. 

 

This is not going in blind, the list of top prospects gets reshuffled a bit in tiering, but out of nowhere guys are relatively rare. 

[mistertim]

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I just don't think McCarthy presents much upside. He just has the look and feel of a career journeyman backup or best case, average starter who bounces around for a bit because of his intangibles and coachability.

 

I want a home run swing at a real superstar QB. The guy that can have us playing nationally televised games and making deep playoff runs every year.

 

Maye is that guy for me, but if we decide to go with Daniels, I can get behind that too(but would be very much concerned about his red flags). If we trade up for Williams, I'd be stoked about the talent but worried about the diva factor. But at the very least, all three represent a real true blue home run swing that we haven't attempted since 2012. 

 

Any other option just has us spinning in more mediocrity and I'm done with that train.

 

My issue with McCarthy isn't that he doesn't have much upside, but that his upside is completely unknown because he wasn't asked to do all that much in college. I think his floor is relatively high because he has experience under center in a more pro style offense and by most accounts has a high football IQ and is a hard worker. But his ceiling is a mystery.

 

Taking him is basically betting on his ability to shoulder much more of a load in the NFL than he did in college. 

[ThatNFLChick]

Let me just explain the other factors that haven't really been discussed that tie into why I prefer Daniels for this team over Maye:

 

1. I like players who have been through adversity.

He earned the starting QB job as a true freshman at ASU with a former NFL head coach against competition. He had a down year in 2021 after a bunch of his family members died from Covid and ASU was under investigation for NCAA violations. When he transferred, he was not guaranteed he would start at LSU. It was a 3 way QB competition and he again earned the starting job. Nothing has ever been handed to him. I'm not worried about his mental toughness or ability to handle hard times. 

 

2. He plays like he has a chip on his shoulder.

In his Heisman speech he said he was always told his frame was too small to play. He had to get a waiver from a doctor in order to play in high school and everyoned doubted him. That seems to fuel him a lot Its like Aaron Rodgers playing with a chip because of all the teams that passed on him or Brady being taken where he was. I like guys who always feel like they have something to prove because they were doubted. I also loved that he wanted to play in the SEC against the toughest competition. He didn't shy away from it and go to an easier conference where he would have been handed the starting job.

 

3. He shines brightest in big games. No moment seems too big for him.

You can go back to his freshman days at ASU beating Justin Herbert and #6 ranked Oregon,  or his first year starting at LSU where his best games were against #6 ranked Alabama, #7 ranked Ole Miss. He seems to love playing under the brightest lights and puts up his best performance when the pressure is on. I can't say enough how much I personally value that. There are a lot of good NFL QBs who just shrink in big moments (and did it in college too). You can't teach someone to be clutch. 

 

4. He has experience playing agaisnt NFL level competition and actual NFL players.

For some his age is a minus and I get that but he has played against so many current NFL players (Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, Justin Herbert, Will Anderson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Hendon Hooker, etc) that I think the whole "OMG they are so much faster at this level" thing that usually happens to rookies will be significantly lessened with him. He knows what he can and can't get away with. We don't have to guess what it will be like for him.

 

5. He'll take pressure off the offensive line.

Part of why the LSU line play improved with Daniels is because defenses played off. Brian Kelly said they recruited Daniels when he hit the portal partly because they knew their line would be a work in progress and needed someone who could mitigate that. If teams blitzed too much and missed they knew he could take it 70 yards. This offensive line won't be great overnight. A true threat like Daniels takes some pressure off that line while we rebuild. 

6. He is EXTREMELY coachable and a hard worker.

I don't need to post the articles again but the amount of work he put in and commitment to the plan he came up with the coaches was really impressive. Both Herm Edwards and Brian Kelly have said he takes coaching extremely well and Kelly coached him hard. He seems to always want to get better and will do the work to make it happen. 

 

7. He has experience having to score a lot because of a bad defense.

Do I think this defense is going to be better next year? Yes. Do I think it will be top 10 after one offseason? No. The LSU defense was absolutely atrocious and they had to score on almost every possession to win games. Putting the team on his back won't be some foreign concept to Daniels. He had to do a lot in 2023 to keep up. 

8. He has experience in several different offensive systems. 

When he got to ASU they ran Rob Likens offense which was a combination of WCO and Air Raid. Then Likens was fired and they ran a pro-style offense with Zak Hill and more snaps under center and became more of a run first team. Then when he left ASU for LSU he ran Mike Denbrock's offense which was a pro-style RPO. I don't think there is going to be a massive learning curve regardless of what we run.

 

9. Leadership.

The fact that he started doing 5 am film study and then got the WRsamd other members of the offense to come in and do film study and change/improve their study and practice habits says a lot. You often see him doing stuff like this in games (now nobody knew Boutte was betting on games but.....)

10. His best friends are all pros. He understands preparation, work ethic, training at the NFL level. 

This seems silly but it really isn't. He trains with CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. He talks to Brandon Aiyuk and Rachaad White every other day. He knows what it takes to be a pro and what the expectations are because all of the people he is closest to have done it at a high level and he works out with them. He talks to Herm Edwards and Antonio Pierce every other week they said. He surrounds himself with professionals. I don't fear him hitting any kind of huge rookie wall. 

 

[NOLA2DC]

2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Not happening, it's lying season. They're just trying to keep people guessing as long as possible. I think they're taking Caleb. 

[mistertim]

@ThatNFLChick You said Daniels vs. Maye, but nothing you posted there has anything to do with Maye. You're pointing out positives about Daniels without actually providing any sort of counterpoint about Maye and why you think those things don't apply to him. 

[ThatNFLChick]

7 minutes ago, mistertim said:

@ThatNFLChick You said Daniels vs. Maye, but nothing you posted there has anything to do with Maye. You're pointing out positives about Daniels without actually providing any sort of counterpoint about Maye and why you think those things don't apply to him. 

 

Its why I prefer Daniels, period actually. 

 

If you want to post a rebuttal you are welcome to. The "shines bright in big games" thing does not apply to Maye nor the clutch thing. As far as what I know about his family, he comes from a UNC dynasty of athletes so it was always expected he would go there and play. He also didn't play against NFL level competition in the ACC. I haven't seen it mentioned that he trains with or works out with anyone besides Howell (and well Eli now)

Edited February 11 by ThatNFLChick

[mistertim]

Just now, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Its why I prefer Daniels, period actually. 

 

If you want to post a rebuttal you are welcome to. I don't think the big game thing applies to Maye nor the clutch thing. As far as what I know about his family, he comes from a UNC dynasty of athletes so it was always expected he would go there and play. He also didn't olay against NFL level competition in the ACC. 

 

Then just say that, and stop pretending like you're making any actual comparison. And why post a rebuttal? You ignore football related points brought up about Daniels like the plague.

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

Then just say that, and stop pretending like you're making any actual comparison. And why post a rebuttal? You ignore football related points brought up about Daniels like the plague.

 

LOL, since the main conversation has been Daniels vs Maye at 2 I think the reason I put that was quite clear.