The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

14 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Vegas, Minnesota, and potentially Atlanta are going to put together sizable offers to move into the top 3. But it essentially has to be a Godfather-type offer for us to take it and those teams aren't going to give that up IMO.

 

Minnesota isn't trading Justin Jefferson and he's a guy I'd need coming back to consider moving out of 2.

I'd rather have Addison. He's got 3 years of a rookie contract left plus the rookie option, Jefferson will get the mega extension after this season. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Not that it matters what others predict about the future -- I'll say though if they don't take a QB early, I doubt we are on this list after the draft

 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

It's definitely smoke season, but interesting that there's a lot of buzz today all of a sudden of Washington and Fields. You do eliminate the "rookie contract" window. But that would be a pretty appealing/interesting jump-start to a re-build.

 

Trade #40 back to CHI for Fields. Trade #2 down and accumulate a ton of draft capital, and roll into 2024 with Fields/Howell and a ton of draft capital. 

 

Or, conversely, trade #2 to Chicago for #9, 2025 1st, 2026 1st and Justin Fields.

 

Pulled up the sim. to see what I could get in a trade-down.

#2 and #102 to NE for #3, #34, #68 and a 2025 2nd

#3 to Las Vegas for #13, #44 and a 2025 1st

 

If you were to trade #40 to CHI for Fields, you'd have:

#13, #34, #35, #44, #67, #68, #100 and go into 2025 with 1st, 1st (LV), 2nd, 2nd (NE), 3rd

 

That's a ton of draft capital + Justin Fields. 

Edited February 7 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Conn]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

It's definitely smoke season, but interesting that there's a lot of buzz today all of a sudden of Washington and Fields. You do eliminate the "rookie contract" window. But that would be a pretty appealing/interesting jump-start to a re-build.

 

Trade #40 back to CHI for Fields. Trade #2 down and accumulate a ton of draft capital, and roll into 2024 with Fields/Howell and a ton of draft capital. 

 

Or, conversely, trade #2 to Chicago for #9, 2025 1st, 2026 1st and Justin Fields.

 

Pulled up the sim. to see what I could get in a trade-down.

#2 and #102 to NE for #3, #34, #68 and a 2025 2nd

#3 to Las Vegas for #13, #44 and a 2025 1st

 

If you were to trade #40 to CHI for Fields, you'd have:

#13, #34, #35, #44, #67, #68, #100 and go into 2025 with 1st, 1st (LV), 2nd, 2nd (NE), 3rd

 

That's a ton of draft capital + Justin Fields. 

I don’t think it would be appealing at all, because I’ve watched a lot of Justin Fields and don’t think he’s a good Quarterback.

 

Feels like something a very niche group of people would be excited about. The extra draft capital is sexy in a theoretical sense but unnecessary when you can just solve your #1 problem and have plenty of other resources. 

[JSSkinz]

We could just draft Marvin Harrison Jr and then sign Kirk Cousins (ew did I just say that).

 

At least we'll know we have a nasty wide receiver crew and a consistent quarterback that will deliver to some extent and buy us another 3 years.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

It's definitely smoke season, but interesting that there's a lot of buzz today all of a sudden of Washington and Fields. You do eliminate the "rookie contract" window. But that would be a pretty appealing/interesting jump-start to a re-build.

 

 

In that case, I think you are boxed in to winning now and hope that you can fix Fields fast.  If you can fix Fields fast the window is short because you got to give him the big contract soon.

 

Trading down feels nauseating to me, trading for Fields would feel even more nauseating.  With the caveat, that I'll trust any move they make.  But if they do something uncoventional and conservative like a vocal minority of our fans want -- it better work otherwise the Peters era should be short lived.  

 

 

Edited February 7 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Question for those who want to trade down from #2: How many teams have we seen achieve sustained success (i.e., multiple trips to the SB) over the last 20 years without a top 10 QB?  We've seen plenty of teams with stacked rosters and subpar QBs achieve success in one-off years, but I want sustained success.  Drafting a QB in the top 2 gives us the best chance for that.

Baltimore, San Francisco. Nobody else, and that goes back to the eighties. The Bucs also did it, but it was a shorter window, about 1999-2003. 

[Redskins 2021]

What would a Fields contract extension look like? He probably is not getting a top two contract.

 

 I

Edited February 7 by Redskins 2021

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

If Im moving from 2 to past 10 I want a minimum 1st, 2nd and 4th this year, 1st and 3rd next year, and 1st the year after. MINIMUM. Just to answer the phone

Yep, the Saints deal was appealing back then because we didn't have to move that far down, and that draft had 5 QB's (and Champ Bailey), it would not be remotely enough for dropping from the tier 1 blue chip zone to the mid first. That's the problem, the Raiders and Vikes won too many games in lost seasons, and screwed themselves. They aren't about to make a climb to the top 3 without sacrificing so much, it renders it pointless. 

[Warhead36]

What Fields buzz? I just can't imagine a smart exec like Adam Peters giving up anything for such a lousy QB who's only value(the rookie contract)is damn near about to expire.

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Hard pass on both those. If Im trading down its under the assumption that Im running it back with Howell and setting myself up with ammunition in future years.

 

But Id still rather stay at 2. Its just not likely were gonna have a shot at a potential superstar QB again anytime soon barring some crazy good fortune.

Our chance is basically right here right now (which is probably 50/50 to 55/45), screwing up the reboot and landing a top pick in '26 (while acquiring draft capital to trade up if need be that year-probably 10-20%), or trading down and taking our chances with a tier 3 QB in this class and Howell (which I'd put at 25-40%).

 

To me, anyway, the chances of hitting right here, right now, at 2 are just better than playing for '26, or making do with a mid first QB prospect and Howell's potential. And I like Howell, a lot, but I still think Howell's peak potential is probably in that 10th-15th area, which isn't good enough and that's if everything goes right for him, which is unlikely. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

What Fields buzz? I just can't imagine a smart exec like Adam Peters giving up anything for such a lousy QB who's only value(the rookie contract)is damn near about to expire.

 

Saw one of those aggregator accounts (which broadly suck but typically grab onto soundbites) say if the Commanders can't get to #1 for Caleb Williams, they'd consider drafting MHJ at #2 and trading a 2nd for Fields. I assume they got this from some reporter somewhere. 

 

Also, someone on Grant and Danny came on and said the Commanders would be smart to trade a mid-round pick for Fields and trade off #2. Forget which reporter that was. But I think this was a separate account/report/discussion than the aggregator was referencing. 

 

I'll see if I can go find them. 

 

But both made their way onto my twitter timeline in the last hour. 

Edited February 7 by JamesMadisonSkins

[sinews]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Not that it matters what others predict about the future -- I'll say though if they don't take a QB early, I doubt we are on this list after the draft

 

 

 

Here's the brief write-up if anyone's interested (it's related to FA):

 

2. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS ($73.6M IN CAP SPACE)

 

"With the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Commanders are in position to land either quarterback Caleb Williams or quarterback Drake Maye. That means they won’t have to spend big at the position for several years and can their resources to build a team around a new signal-caller.

 

Washington could look to make a splash in free agency by targeting a player like Danielle Hunter at edge defender, having traded away both Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline this past season. It also gives them room to try to retain cornerback Kendall Fuller, the 15th-ranked player on PFF’s free agency rankings."

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-nfl-free-agency-five-teams-best-set-up

[CapsSkins]

The Fields option makes no sense to me. If Chicago doesn't feel they can win with him, why would we?

 

If GMAP is trading down from 2 overall, it's because either 1) he feels one of the Tier 2 QBs is also a franchise-level guy a la Purdy, or 2) he's not a believer in the Big 3 (or perhaps Drake and Jayden assuming Caleb goes 1OA).

 

I still feel they're going to sit at the pick and take one of the QB prospects.

[KDawg]

In a vacuum, a second for Fields is not unappealing. Especially with Kingsbury. 
 

However, this isn’t a vacuum and we’re picking 2 overall. 

[Conn]

9 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

What would a Fields contract extension look like? He probably is not getting a top two contract.

 

 I

His 5th year extension is going to be over $25M, and you have to make that decision in less than 3 months. 
 

And if you aren’t willing to shell that out for his 5th year, then why the **** are you trading for him? 
 

And he’s not worth that. 

[redskinss]

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Not that it matters what others predict about the future -- I'll say though if they don't take a QB early, I doubt we are on this list after the draft

 

 

 

How are the bears not on this list?

[Veretax]

17 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

It's definitely smoke season, but interesting that there's a lot of buzz today all of a sudden of Washington and Fields. You do eliminate the "rookie contract" window. But that would be a pretty appealing/interesting jump-start to a re-build.

 

Trade #40 back to CHI for Fields. Trade #2 down and accumulate a ton of draft capital, and roll into 2024 with Fields/Howell and a ton of draft capital. 

 

Or, conversely, trade #2 to Chicago for #9, 2025 1st, 2026 1st and Justin Fields.

 

Pulled up the sim. to see what I could get in a trade-down.

#2 and #102 to NE for #3, #34, #68 and a 2025 2nd

#3 to Las Vegas for #13, #44 and a 2025 1st

 

If you were to trade #40 to CHI for Fields, you'd have:

#13, #34, #35, #44, #67, #68, #100 and go into 2025 with 1st, 1st (LV), 2nd, 2nd (NE), 3rd

 

That's a ton of draft capital + Justin Fields. 

I've not explored a trade down with Chicago, but I wonder if a three way trade that has a veteran coming here                      could happen?  Not normally at this point in the draft process though.

I have simmed a few mocks two and I've seen a few scenarios possible.

one is the trade back

NE Moves up 1, usually takes a QB (But sometimes takes a OT)
if AZ jumps NE, they tend to take Neighbors over harrison JR or QB. 

If You trade back twice, AZ sometimes takes a tackle.

I have seen 1 sim wehre WIlliams lasts to pick 11, with us, and we decide to trade with the RAiders who take him.  If we trade back to 11, and WIlliams is there, That's a scenario that's hard to fathom.

What I have seen a lot more recently is Chicago taking the kid from LSU I've seen them taking Maye, and Harrison Jr, as well as Williams.  I've no idea how mocks make that decision.  I've seen maye fall into the teens, I've not seen Jayden fall below 5 or 6.


What has shocked me is some people taking J J McCarthy in the 15-21 range.  I've even seen Bo Nix in that range.  For a while Penix Jr was where McCarthy was, but he seems to be falling into the 2nd in recent sims.

I think my favorite trade back scenario is 2 trade backs to the teens somewhere, then take BPA, then trade up to take Bo Nix, or another key player in the back end of the first.

If we sign a Veteran it will be shocking to see what happens in these predictions, even if its not someone like say Cousins.

I am torn on the #2 pick a lot, in part because I have RG3's injury in my head, it makes me not want to               take a  QB there potentially, but  I think we will, and we do it because we have SO many other picks, and there are a number of D and O Studs this draft.  


 

[Warhead36]

Fields stinks. I just don't get it. Howell has more value at this point.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

49 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

Woh. At first I was like "yaaawn, boring, the trend line is obvious and the variance is so small"...until we get to 2022 and 2023. Talk about difference in severity of sacks. Caleb's look like drive killers while Maye and Daniels have 2 years of data showing some of their sacks are probably really close to the LoS. I'm guessing they were getting sacked as they were figuring out if it was a tuck and run or not.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

11 minutes ago, Conn said:

His 5th year extension is going to be over $25M, and you have to make that decision in less than 3 months. 
 

And if you aren’t willing to shell that out for his 5th year, then why the **** are you trading for him? 
 

And he’s not worth that. 

 

Came out today. The 5th year for Lawrence and Fields is $21.5m

[Skinsinparadise]

27 minutes ago, sinews said:

 

 

2. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS ($73.6M IN CAP SPACE)

 

"With the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Commanders are in position to land either quarterback Caleb Williams or quarterback Drake Maye. That means they won’t have to spend big at the position for several years and can their resources to build a team around a new signal-caller.

 

 

It's an operative point for those that prefer to spend money on a veteran.  it's actually easier to build around a rookie cheap QB.

 

If we for example sign Kirk for 40 million or pay Justin or whateever, that cap space is going fast.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Rookie QB is definitely the way to go. 

I guess my question becomes, does this FO want to go rookie QB now, or go rookie QB after a cycle of re-loading talent around Howell for a year? Or a combo of Howell + 3rd or 4th round rookie (Travis, Rattler, Pratt?) or a guy like McCarthy/Penix/Nixe if they fall to R2. 

 

I'm sure they go QB at #2 (or #1). But they do have the long-range vision in mind here, and know it won't be a 1 -year fix to get to super-bowl level of competitive. 

 

So they could take the long-range approach to QB as well. 

Edited February 7 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Dah-Dee]

Not sure I understand why folks might suggest we go non-QB this year, planning to draft one next year. Everything I've seen predicts a huge falloff in QB talent for the 2025 draft.

 

2024 top 3: Williams, Maye, Daniels (then Penix, Nix, McCarthy)

 

2025 top 3: Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers (and/or Drew Allar, Jalen Milroe, Connor Weigman)

 

Yikes.

 

Seems like if Commanders even think they *might* want a rookie QB next couple years, gotta do it this year, while guaranteed one of the top couple/few in a strong QB class.

Edited February 7 by Dah-Dee

[Veretax]

1 minute ago, Dah-Dee said:

Not sure I understand why folks might suggest we go non-QB this year, planning to draft one next year. Everything I've seen predicts a huge falloff in QB talent for the 2025 draft.

 

2024 top 3: Williams, Maye, Daniels (then Penix, Nix, McCarthy)

 

2025 top 3: Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers (and/or Drew Allar, Jalen Milroe, Connor Weigman)

 

Yikes.

I don't think anyone is predicting it, just discussion the possibility if we did. (not exactly an apples to apples comparison)

What's more, the more I find myself trying the trade down route I am either more convinced that these sims are crap (because some teams throw WAY to many picks for a 2nd and a 3rd), But I have noticed that if you do trade down, you may do from multiple picks.... In one draft I endedup with 15 selections, 6-7 in the first 100.   After going through that, i feel like once you get passt the 4th or 5th pick the focus and quality of what's available begins to become   lesser to some degree, although there is a lot of talent in this draft, I think its better than last years.

But I expect them to draft someone at #2 likely a QB, but could be an OT.   In part because if they can move around late in the draft, they can still add a couple this year and next year picks if they are smart about it.