The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Redskins 2021]

2 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

 

Hypothetically, who's to say the Bears don't trade up to #3 overall for the #9 overall pick AND Justin Fields plus a 2nd round pick next year. The Bears get CW and MHJ....NE rolls with Fields and goes with Nabors or Bowers at #9 and they then have their combo. Point is, the Bears are in such a great position that, depending on the interest level for Fields, they could do any number of things to get both CW and MHJ including dealing with Washington if need be to pick up more picks. 

 I did not think about Bears moving up. I guess we could tell the Bears we are taking Harrison if they take Williams.  I think the Bears may really want Harrison.

 

Harrison is probably the highest-rated player in the draft?

 

 

[clskinsfan]

29 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Has the NFL changed so much

I think it has. Basically every rule that has been changed over the past two decades is for protection of or production from QB's. The league brass isnt dumb. They know where their bread is buttered.

[Command The 414]

8 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

 

Hypothetically, who's to say the Bears don't trade up to #3 overall for the #9 overall pick AND Justin Fields plus a 2nd round pick next year. The Bears get CW and MHJ....NE rolls with Fields and goes with Nabors or Bowers at #9 and they then have their combo. Point is, the Bears are in such a great position that, depending on the interest level for Fields, they could do any number of things to get both CW and MHJ including dealing with Washington if need be to pick up more picks. 

That is a great scenario, if I didn’t know any better you got some GM in you… totally agreed the Bears if GM Pace does things right could easily be set for a long time after this draft

Edited February 7 by Command The 414

[kingdaddy]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah exactly. We had essentially two decades of Pro Bowl/All Pro caliber LT play from Chris Samuels through Trent Williams and what did it win us? That's not factoring in guys like Jon Jansen, Randy Thomas, Brandon Scherff, Morgan Moses etc. I'd argue from 2000 to 2020 collectively across the league we probably had a top 5-10 OL all around.

 

Without a franchise QB it doesn't mean jack.

You guys are both right. Detroit had Stafford for years and sucked cause they didn't have anything around him. He goes to the Rams and immediately wins a SB on a team loaded in the trenches. Everyone is right that a franchise QB is the way to go, if you can find one, and everyone is right that you need to build the trenches to win. This years two SB teams support both sides of this debate. I'm giving you both a trophy. 

[Conn]

36 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

We all know that Gibbs won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different quarterbacks.  How did he do that?  By having a very strong offensive line, a strong defensive line and 2 good coordinators- Gibbs on offense and Pettibone on defense.   Has the NFL changed so much that you have to find the franchise quarterback first and then build up your offensive and defensive lines??  Seems backwards to me. Snyder chased quarterbacks and look where that got him.  Our lines need to be built up.  Howell had no chance last year to look good.  We also need another elite receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr.  But what about getting a strong left tackle?  We have so many needs.

 

Hope Peters and Quinn can figure it all out and not put all their money in one basket that would be either complete hit or complete miss.

 

Yes, the NFL has changed more than it hasn’t since the 1980’s. 
 

It’s not about doing one thing first or the other thing first. It’s about getting the QB whenever you have the chance, because the chance is rare and hitting requires luck even in good circumstances. So you get the QB when there’s a QB you love, and use the rest of your resources to build the rest of the team. We have a lot of other resources. 
 

But in general, going back to 1980’s success is pretty much always going to steer you wrong. It’s not a good lens to start from when the year is 2024. It’s been 33 years since our last SB. You have to leave what Gibbs (or anyone else) did behind. 
 

27 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 There a good shot if NE does not like who is left at Qb they go Wr. I think QB goes one and two.

 

Harrison has a very high grade and has a very good chance of going top 3. You want get a huge offer but you could pick up a couple of picks.

Ok. But even if you’re right, nobody’s paying QB prices to jump NE for a WR. It’s not happening. Especially because Harrison isn’t the only blue chip WR prospect. 

 

Edited February 7 by Conn

[Warhead36]

You want a QB on a rookie contract. Even if he's only around league average, its a TREMENDOUS competitive advantage, because then you can stack the team around him. Otherwise you're paying like $15-20+ mil a year for a league average QB.

 

And if he turns out to be a good or even great, well now you have yourself a legit 3-5 year Super Bowl window before you have to pay him. And if he's that good, you'll still contend even after paying him(see Chiefs with Mahomes, Ravens with Jackson, Bills with Allen).

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

There’s about a .0001% chance of this happening, but I can’t help but think of the fallout should Peters determine that Williams and/or Maye aren’t home runs and trade our pick for a kings ransom.

 

Obviously, he’d have to be right or likely his tenure isn’t very long.  
 

I’m just thinking about whether or not the servers can survive the traffic of rage this site will encounter.

[Skinsinparadise]

33 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

 Has the NFL changed so much that you have to find the franchise quarterback first

 

Finding a franchise QB is VERY hard.   It's twice as hard when you aren't picking in the top 3.  And as bad as the ride has been for 30 plus years, we almost never pick top 3.  To have this rare opportunity and just pass over it would be wild.  Other teams who need QBs almost never trade out of the top 3.  So for the team that arguably has had one of the worst rides in NFL history at QB --  to be the one to pass over a potential get out of jail free card would add to the pile if it blew up in their face.

 

You talk about the 80s-early 90s and has the NFL changed that much.  Heck Dan Quinn talked about how much the NFL had changed in recent years and he had to adapt and change his defense almost entirely from what he did 5 years ago.   Let alone how much the league has changed since 30 plus years ago.  

 

When Gibbs came back he was a lost puppy running the offense.  It was an antiquated offense that struggled to score points.  He hired Saunders to help change that but it was tough to do for him without the QB.   They had a good O line and a good defense for most of Gibbs 2nd tenure.  But this team was below 500.   They weren't winning a SB with Mark Brunnel or Todd Collins.  The NFL changed. 

 

Look at the teams in the playoffs.  It's a QB driven league. 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

There’s about a .0001% chance of this happening, but I can’t help but think of the fallout should Peters determine that Williams and/or Maye aren’t home runs and trade our pick for a kings ransom.

 

Obviously, he’d have to be right or likely his tenure isn’t very long.  
 

I’m just thinking about whether or not the servers can survive the traffic of rage this site will encounter.

If he truly believes that the QB crop aren't all that AND he receives an absolute motherlode of picks(I'm talking AT LEAST three 1st rounders as well as multiple mid round picks this year and next year)then yeah, I'll ride with him. But he BETTER be right. If it turns out Maye or Daniels are stars and we draft a bunch of JAGs, he'll be out of a job.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

You want a QB on a rookie contract.

This is the part that gets overlooked. And it is the reason Chicago is a lock to pick Caleb imo. I think Fields got a raw deal in Chicago. New OC every single year among other things they did to hurt his development. But even with that they are not going to be dropping 40 mill per year to Fields when they can have Caleb at 13 mill or whatever the rookie wage scale pays. And lets not forget Fields was the FOURTH rated QB prospect in his draft. 

[HigSkin]

22 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

You want a QB on a rookie contract. Even if he's only around league average, its a TREMENDOUS competitive advantage, because then you can stack the team around him. Otherwise you're paying like $15-20+ mil a year for a league average QB.

 

And if he turns out to be a good or even great, well now you have yourself a legit 3-5 year Super Bowl window before you have to pay him. And if he's that good, you'll still contend even after paying him(see Chiefs with Mahomes, Ravens with Jackson, Bills with Allen).

 

Yup, you have to keep trying to draft them and hit on one, even with the low first round success percentages.  

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-busts

 

"There have been 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011, the year the NFL changed the collective bargaining agreement to set a wage scale for rookie deals, making it extremely affordable to draft a quarterback," he began. "These 38 first-round quarterbacks have made a total of 1,909 starts. Their record? 1034-1035-7. Almost exactly break-even."

 

"Only one of those 38 quarterbacks led their team to a Super Bowl victory: Patrick Mahomes," Sharp reported. "Of these 38 quarterbacks, 10 are still on their rookie deal, so set them aside. Of the other 28, only 11 (39%) were even given a second deal with the team that drafted them. Most were cut or saw their rookie deals expire."

 

 

 

Edited February 7 by HigSkin

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

You want a QB on a rookie contract. Even if he's only around league average, its a TREMENDOUS competitive advantage, because then you can stack the team around him. Otherwise you're paying like $15-20+ mil a year for a league average QB.

 

And if he turns out to be a good or even great, well now you have yourself a legit 3-5 year Super Bowl window before you have to pay him. And if he's that good, you'll still contend even after paying him(see Chiefs with Mahomes, Ravens with Jackson, Bills with Allen).

 

Yeah that's the other key part.  The rookie QB is the biggest loophole in the cap era.  to pass over that chance would be wild

Edited February 7 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

This is the part that gets overlooked. And it is the reason Chicago is a lock to pick Caleb imo. I think Fields got a raw deal in Chicago. New OC every single year among other things they did to hurt his development. But even with that they are not going to be dropping 40 mill per year to Fields when they can have Caleb at 13 mill or whatever the rookie wage scale pays. And lets not forget Fields was the FOURTH rated QB prospect in his draft. 

Yep and its also what hurts Howell. He's already used up half of his rookie contract.

[mac8887]

1 hour ago, triggered said:

And who would protect the newly acquired QB? Just look at Mr. Irrelevant with again a great O-line.

 

Trent williams and Brandon shreff or Samuel's and Jansen. Oh wait, we've already tried that. Hard pass on running it back with howell so we can improve the line. The line never has the ball in there hands and can only do so much to influence the game. The same reasons howell fell in the draft are the same reasons he failed so miserably the last 2 months of the season

 

You gotta have a great qb to be a consistently good team, I'm tired of our goal being 9-10 wins a year and sneaking our way into the playoffs just to lose wildcard weekend, thats our best case scenario with howell, and none of us are even sure howell could even get us that far even if he had the best line in the league. The line played better in the second half of the season, while howells play fell off a cliff.

 

 Both caleb and jayden are worthy of our pick. Go with one of them. There should be no way we turn down blue chip qb talent for an offensive lineman and a first rounder next year, especially since the tackle we would get in the draft this year would probably be 10th to 20th best tackle in the league his rookie year, there are no tackles this year that are locks to be great like Trent williams was coming out of school, and the extra 1st we'd have next year, is in a year with a qp crop that is nowhere close to this years.

 

 

Edited February 7 by mac8887

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

 

Yup, you have to keep trying to draft them, even with the low success percentages.  

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-busts

 

"There have been 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011, the year the NFL changed the collective bargaining agreement to set a wage scale for rookie deals, making it extremely affordable to draft a quarterback," he began. "These 38 first-round quarterbacks have made a total of 1,909 starts. Their record? 1034-1035-7. Almost exactly break-even."

 

"Only one of those 38 quarterbacks led their team to a Super Bowl victory: Patrick Mahomes," Sharp reported. "Of these 38 quarterbacks, 10 are still on their rookie deal, so set them aside. Of the other 28, only 11 (39%) were even given a second deal with the team that drafted them. Most were cut or saw their rookie deals expire."

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The stats for the Qbs in round 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 is abysmal.  Much better for round 1.  And its not close.

 

Some like to combine the 2nd-7 rounds into one unit.  But that's now how it works.

 

It would be like me saying.  We can draft Drake Maye or we get ALL of these guys:  Penix, Nix, Rattler, Pratt, Hartman, Milton.

 

Now if its the way the real world works and its Maye versus name that random QB in the next round.  The odds are with Maye.  

 

But some (not you) like to argue the point that its indeed an option of getting Maye or Daniels versus having every other QB drafted in the 2nd round thru the 7th -- all of them.

 

Heck you give me any position and the trade off is I get the the best player at this positon or the 8 players at that same position from the 2nd round through the 7th, I'll take the 8 players.

Edited February 7 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The stats for the Qbs in round 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 is abysmal.  Much better for round 1.  And its not close.

 

Some like to combine the 2nd-7 rounds into one unit.  But that's now how it works.

 

It would be like me saying.  We can draft Drake Maye or we get ALL of these guys:  Penix, Nix, Rattler, Pratt, Hartman, Milton.

 

Now if its the way the real world works and its Maye versus name that random QB in the next round.  The odds are with Maye.  

 

But some (not you) like to argue the point that its indeed an option of getting Maye or Daniels versus having every other QB drafted in the 2nd round -- all of them.

 

Heck you give me any position and the trade off is I get the the best player at this positon or the 8 players at that same position from the 2nd round through the 7th, I'll take the 8 players.

I think Peters trades down not once but a couple times in the draft.  I do believe Maye is the pick at #2.  I'd like to see him pull a Purdy also that in the late rounds of the draft too (5th - 7th).  

[HigSkin]

3 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I think Peters trades down not once but a couple times in the draft.  I do believe Maye is the pick at #2.  I'd like to see him pull a Purdy also that in the late rounds of the draft too (5th - 7th).  

 

Howell has a lot of value (cheap and NFL experience now) as a backup here for 2 more years.  54 different QB's started last year and 60 the year prior. 

[RWJ]

7 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Howell has a lot of value (cheap and NFL experience now) as a backup here for 2 more years.  54 different QB's started last year and 60 the year prior. 

Totally agree and I believe we keep Howell on this team and I think Quinn is hoping that Kingsbury can develop what EB and lack of an OL let go backwards.  Peters may not draft a QB in the later rounds as mentioned but he could. 

[skinsfan66]

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The stats for the Qbs in round 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 is abysmal.  Much better for round 1.  And its not close.

 

Some like to combine the 2nd-7 rounds into one unit.  But that's now how it works.

 

It would be like me saying.  We can draft Drake Maye or we get ALL of these guys:  Penix, Nix, Rattler, Pratt, Hartman, Milton.

 

Now if its the way the real world works and its Maye versus name that random QB in the next round.  The odds are with Maye.  

 

But some (not you) like to argue the point that its indeed an option of getting Maye or Daniels versus having every other QB drafted in the 2nd round -- all of them.

 

Heck you give me any position and the trade off is I get the the best player at this positon or the 8 players at that same position from the 2nd round through the 7th, I'll take the 8 players.

Since 2000 only 1 QB drafted in the top 3 has won a S.B. E.Manning, Only 2 drafted in the top 10 has won a S.B. P.Mahomes, Out of 43 picks 10 or higher. Since the SB. is the top Prize and not 8/8 or 12/5.... that's not a good ratio. 41 teams won SB's without their QB being picked in the top ten. Everybody wants a Trophy. Second is Second loser. Mahomes can make it 3 or Purdy can make it 2 out of 44. Just putting more facts out there and the Nos. came from Bleacher Report on not to trade up article. Not that we should not draft a QB top 3 just how hard it is to get that QB no matter where you pick or trade down. 

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Since 2000 only 1 QB drafted in the top 3 has won a S.B. E.Manning, Only 2 drafted in the top 10 has won a S.B. P.Mahomes, Out of 43 picks 10 or higher. Since the SB. is the top Prize and not 8/8 or 12/5.... that's not a good ratio. 41 teams won SB's without their QB being picked in the top ten. Everybody wants a Trophy. Second is Second loser. Mahomes can make it 3 or Purdy can make it 2 out of 44. Just putting more facts out there and the Nos. came from Bleacher Report on not to trade up article. Not that we should not draft a QB top 3 just how hard it is to get that QB no matter where you pick or trade down. 

Peyton won two. Stafford won one.

 

If you expand it out to top 11, Roethlisberger won two.

 

But what about top 10 QBs that made it to the Super Bowl but lost? There are more then. Cam Newton. Matt Ryan. Joe Burrow. Jared Goff.

 

Just judging a QB's success on whether he wins the Super Bowl or not is kind of crazy. Its ridiculously hard to win a Super Bowl.

 

The fact is you need a franchise QB to sustain success and for the most part they are drafted in the 1st round. The higher you pick in the 1st, the more choices you have, the higher % chance you hit. But of course, nothing is guaranteed.

 

But yeah, keep trying to find Tom Bradys and Brock Purdys in the 6th/7th round.

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Since 2000 only 1 QB drafted in the top 3 has won a S.B. E.Manning, Only 2 drafted in the top 10 has won a S.B. P.Mahomes, Out of 43 picks 10 or higher. Since the SB. is the top Prize and not 8/8 or 12/5.... that's not a good ratio. 41 teams won SB's without their QB being picked in the top ten. Everybody wants a Trophy. Second is Second loser. Mahomes can make it 3 or Purdy can make it 2 out of 44. Just putting more facts out there and the Nos. came from Bleacher Report on not to trade up article. Not that we should not draft a QB top 3 just how hard it is to get that QB no matter where you pick or trade down. 

 

 

If we are comparing 3 players versus 256 players and that's what we are doing here.  I don't care what the position is.  256 players > 3 players.   

 

If you told me right now I can pick the top 3 players or get all the other 256 players.  I'll take the 256 players.   But alas that's not possible. 

 

You can call it a fact.  I agree with that is a fact but lets call it exactly the way it is.  Reality is you are either taking a top QB or ONE QB somewhere else.  Not the 12 or so other QBs that get drafted combined give or take.   But you'd be taking one of those 12 if you trade down. And the hit rate after the first round is abysmal. 

 

IMO we need to have some balls. We should do what the other big boy teams do.  Team don't tend to trade down from the top 3 when they need a QB especially in a touted draft for QBs.  Why should this team of all teams be the exception?

Edited February 7 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

 

[BayouBrave86]

If this team drafts Marvin at 2 with these 3 QBs, welll…I don’t even think my brain could fathom that. It would be so incredibly stupid. Marvin is an elite receiver but he isn’t some generational talent at WR. It could be argued he isn’t even the best WR in this draft. If this team trades up to one with a kings ransom or drafts Marvin at 2, it’ll show we are living in a replay of the last 30 years. 
 

old regime tries to stack Bama players on defense and new regime tries to stack OSU players on offense  

Edited February 7 by BayouBrave86

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

If this team drafts Marvin at 2 with these 3 QBs, welll…I don’t even think my brain could fathom that. It would be so incredibly stupid. Marvin is an elite receiver but he isn’t some generational talent at WR. It could be argued he isn’t even the best WR in this draft. If this team trades up to one with a kings ransom or drafts Marvin at 2, it’ll show we are living in a replay of the last 30 years. 
 

old regime tries to stack Bama players on defense and new regime tries to stack OSU players on offense  

 

I love Harrison but still agree with this point. 

 

If the idea is we go 9-8 every 4 years or maybe even 10-7 and a first round playoff exit -- lets build up the roster some more, instead.   And hope in the next 20 years we will finally get lucky (50 years is the charm?) and find that once a blue moon franchise QB later in the draft and then finally compete with the big boy teams where we like them are in the playoffs every year and have a good chance to even win a playoff game. 

Edited February 7 by Skinsinparadise

[Veretax]

WHy the heck would you trade Daron Payne?  Vs Jon Allen?  

I'm no ta huge fan of trading up.   A lot depends on how they show in the combine, but there are 5 QbS I like in the first 2 rounds.  The three oBvious ones,  plus Penix Jr, and Bo NIx.  NIx's accuracy is particularly interesting, but I'm not sure how good he is off schedule which is Why I doubt we trade back and wait to select him.


I'd be happy when any of those 5, and if they Trade or sign a Veteran To take over, I'd be shocked if they didn't take a QB in 2nd rd.  That chart was interesting, It would be interesting to know where the Free Agent QBs, and the rest of the ROokies fall in that grid.