The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

45 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I wouldn't harp on the 52 passes that much. Remember that stat gets inflated by having to pass every play on the last drive of each half. And then you take into account the Eagles #1 ranked rush defense while we had two backups on our OL. 

To be fair, our oline is clearly a lot better, with those two backups in. Lol.

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

The offense was mostly great today, yes.

 

Did we win? No.

 

Is that 100% on the defense? I'd say it's close, but they did have 2 TOs and two sacks and mostly kept Hurts in the pocket.

 

The run game is about more than just offensive progress. It's why the Eagles ran the ball so much when their passing game was working well.

The Eagles had a total of 22 rushes for 59 yards.  That's not that much.  We ran 16 for 84.  They ran the ball 6 more times than we did in the game, and we were trailing by 7 and then 14 points in the 4th quarter.  In context, it's almost the same.  6 more rushes works out to 1.5 more rushes per quarter. It's almost the exact same game plan.  

 

The other thing to note is the Eagles have an outstanding run defense.  The more you do it, the better it's going to be.  The reason we were able to pop runs is because the runs were almost unexpected. If you tried to run a bunch more, I'm not sure the average would have been as good.

 

If you want to argue there could have been 4 or 5 more runs in the game, fine.  But that's kindof silly if you ask me.  

 

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

When you run the ball, especially late in the game, you keep your dfense fresh, you keep the other offense off the field and you wear down the opposing defense.

We won the Time of possession battle.  The defense should have been plenty fresh.  

 

What seems lost on you is the extension of the running game with the short pass.  It was 16 called runs, but how many little flares, quick strikes, etc. did Howell have where it was essentially an extended handoff?  And he was REALLY good at them.  Going into halftime, he had one incompletion.  If that's working, why go away from it?

 

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Tell me we won the fourth quarter and I'll drop it. Tell me we were a better offense than the Eagles in the second half?

See below. 

 

Part of the reason the Eagles were able to get 240 yards in the second half, btw, is the defense STINKS.  We had a lead going into the half.  TOP was even, so they weren't out there a lot.  They immediately gave up a 74 yard drive which ended in a fumble.

 

Then they gave up a 51 yard TD drive and a 75 yard TD drive.  Then the short TD drive off the INT.  

 

Drive 1 (resulting in the goal line fumble) was out of Halftime, they should have been rested.  Also, it only took 4:51 to move the 74 yards.

Drive 2 (resulting in the first TD of the second half) was after a punt.  That drive took 2:22.  Still shouldn't be that winded.  Drive took 3:30 to move the 51 yards. 

Drive 3 (resulting in the second TD of the second half) was after the 7:14 TD drive.  They should have been truly rested.  Drive took 3:16 to move the 75 yards. 

Drive 4 (resulting in the third TD of the second half) was after the INT.  You'd like for a good defense to put up some resistance here, but eh, 

Drive 5 (resulting in a punt!) was after we turned it over on downs for the first time.

Drive 6 (resulting in the 4th TD of the second half) was after the second turnover on downs.  

 

In 2 of the drives, they were in a tough spot because of the INT and the turnover on downs late in the game.  

 

But they started out by giving up a 74 yard, 51 yard and then 75 yard drives. Starting with the lead.  In that span, the Commanders did score a TD.

 

At some point, the defense has to do something positive.  They did NOTHING positive in the second half save for 1 3-out, they allowed the Eagles to score TDs on every drive they had.  And this is while the commanders massed 192 yards int he second half and actually scored 14 points.  

 

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

You know how to keep an explosive and one of the best offenses from scoring on an exposed defense? You stop letting them on the field and you do that by giving the ball to a RB averaging 5.7 yards a carry that gets better as the game goes on.

Again, we won the TOP battle and we had more yards than they did, went 7-12 on 3rd down.  If either of those were not the case, this argument has merit.  This week, when you put up 475 yards, win the TOP battle and have a whopping 6.8 yards per play, it just does not. 

 

 

************************************************

From above, let's look at the 4th quarter objectively:

 

First, let's acknowledge they had a 7 minute drive to score a go-ahead TD to end the 3rd quarter and begin the 4th quarter.  At the end of that drive, the score was 24-17. They mixed run and pass on that drive, and chewed up 7 minutes.  Which in theory rests the defense.  I'm not going to break down this drive play-by-play.  It scored a TD and took 7+ minutes.  I think we can acknowledge the play calling and execution was just fine.  They mixed run and pass.  

 

Then the Eagles scored to tie the game.  7 play drive, 75 yards, took 3:15 drive. Defense should have been well and truly rested.  They just suck.  

 

Then we had the one absolute mistake from Howell, the Interception.  Interceptions happen.  That one was poorly timed at a terrible spot on the field.

 

Eagles score, 2 plays, 7 yards, 45 seconds.  Would have been nice for the defense to do something there to hold them to a FG, but whatever. That's a tough spot for them to be in.  

 

Next drive: This drive went from 7:17 in the 4th to 4:14 in the 4th.  

Play 1: 1st and 10 - Robinson Run for 10 yards

Play 2: 1st and 10 - Robinson Run for 7 yards

Play 3: 2nd and 3 - Howell complete to Gibson for 17 yards

Play 4: 1st and 10 - Howell incomplete to Dotson

Play 5: 2nd and 10 - Robinson run for 2 yards

Play 6: 3rd and 8 - Howell incomplete to McLaurin (kindof a tough catch for McLaurin, but he might have been able to catch it)

Play 7: 4th and 8 - Howell incomplete to McLaurin (kindof a tough catch for McLaurin, but he might have been able to catch it)

Turnover on downs at the Philly 40.  

 

So, on that drive, they ran 3 times, threw it 4 times, and 2 of the throws were on 3rd and 8 and 4th and 8.  They ran it 2 first downs in a row. They moved the ball 35 yards and were in Philly territory. Are you really going to quibble with the play calling there?  They also took 3 minutes off the clock, for whatever that's worth. 

 

Then the defense actually gets a 3 and out, and we get the ball back with 3:09 at our 20 down 7.

Play 1: 1st and 10 - Incomplete to McLaurin

Play 2: 2nd and 10 - Complete to McLaurin for 5 yards

Play 3: Incomplete to Dotson, which was debatable, was first complete then incomplete.

Paly 4: Sack because Wylie sucks.

 

I'm not going to quibble much with going pass-happy on that drive down 7 with 3 minutes to play.  Could they have run the ball once there?  Maybe.  But we're not in "protect the defense" mode in that situation, we're in score a TD to tie the game mode.  

 

Eagles score again.

 

Now the game is basically out of hand.  What happens after this could be considered irrelevant.  I don't.  They did go 4 plays for 72 yards to score a TD and give themselves a chance at an onside kick.  Games HAVE been won in that scenario, so not COMPLETELY irrelevant.  But if you want to argue that's garbage time, I'm not going to arm wrestle you on that. If they recover the onside kick, it's a whole new ballgame, however. 

 

So, what again are you complaining about?  In the drive to take the lead, which took over 7 minutes, they mixed run and pass.  On the next drive, Howell made a bad mistake, he's a 23 year old first year starter that was virtually perfect the entire game, and he made a booboo.  

 

After that, we had a drive with 3 runs, 4 passes and were marching down to score but it stalled out, with 2 possible drops on 3rd and 4th down.  

 

And then the offense got us a chance for an onside kick with 1:00 left in the game. 

 

The eagles scored 2 TDs in the 4th quarter on drives of 7 yards and 16 yards.  So, yeah, they won the 4th quarter, but there is some very significant context to the number of points they put up later.  One was on the interception the other was the late score to go up 14 on the failed 4th down conversion.  

 

There are 2 things offensively to quibble with in this game:

1. Howell's extremely ill-timed interception

2. The play call on 4th and inches where they went empty.  I would have liked to have seen a run there, or a pass that at least keeps the RB in so it keeps the threat of a run alive.  But, going empty on 4th and short has become very "in vogue" in the modern NFL, bunches of teams do it.  I just don't love it.  

 

The Eagles have the best run defense in the league.  We ran just enough for it to be effective and keep them off-balance.  We used the short pass as an extension of the run game.  We won time of possession, we had 475 total yards, scored 31 points, went 7-12 on third downs, actually out-rushed them 84 yards to 54, only had 1 sack, a sparkling 6.8 yards per play, 26 first downs. There is literally nothing to complain about.  

 

This was an almost perfect game from the offense.  Howell made ONE blatant mistake.  

 

But there is absolutely no reason to quibble with the offense in general, the play calling, the game plan, or anything in this game.  There has been in weeks past.  This week, much to your displeasure, EB gets an A++. Howell gets an A.  I forgive the one INT only because of the 3 TDs and almost 400 yards.  Last week, EB probably got a D-- or F.  But not this week.  And again, any objection to that point means you're looking at this through a lens of "I have to find something wrong with the offense so I can blame EB for something."  

 

The issue is the defense has gotten an F in every game since the Bills game when they held the Bills to 16 points through 3 quarters.  Since then, they've been a hot mess all the way around.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Voice_of_Reason

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Chris 44 said:

They have got to find a way to run the ball. I understand going away from it if its not working, but 56 drop backs is over the top and not sustainable. I get that the quick slants etc. being extension of the running game and we need them but they have to scheme in more running plays into the game plan.

But they really don't.  They're substituting short passes for running plays.  It's a key concept in the WCO.  It's like an extended handoff.  

 

I posted this above.  The Eagles ran the ball 22 times yesterday and have one of the best run offenses in the league.  That's 6 more attempts than we did.  That's really not that much.

 

It's a passing league.  We scored 31 points and it could have been more if not for some drops. 

 

I wouldn't worry about the run/pass ratio so much.  As long as it's not 52 deep 5 or 7 step drops and half of pass attempts are quick game, it's really just the same thing.  

 

1 hour ago, method man said:

I don’t either. Yes it was 52 passes but so much of it was quick passing game getting guys in space. What a dinosaur like Loverro doesn’t get is that the volume of passing opened up the run game and so many of those rushing yards came on on one run. I do think it was a mistake, however, not giving Rodriguez some carries

Loverro doesn't understand anything.

 

He's almost the same level as Mr. 2 Minutes, but admittedly, much more creative with his quips, and at times funny. 

 

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

The 3rd and 5 bubble screen on the first or second drive was killer also.  But yeah, easily his best game scheme wise- just two really poor situational calls that were costly.

Eh... if you're referencing the one I think you are, I was listening to the radio call, and London Fletcher said something like "Terry McLaurin is going to be kicking himself after that play because he missed his block badly and if he made it, the play would have gone for at least 10 yards." He came back to say Terry was going to see it in the film room and not be happy about it about 3 times.

 

So, that could be the execution being bad and the call being ok.  

[skinsfan66]

Brisset and Samuel would be my first trades if possible. Sign the practice squad QB of KC? Why so many same type WR's on the team?  Ron's biggest mistake is this last offseason, his draft and free agents so far are a bust and where he chose to fill the needs first..... I had high hopes going into the draft with Howell on a rookie contract and getting the chance to start instead of some other teams cast off. It was all there to be had OL,TE at the top of the list for me. The FA OL are sucking up the field and look like big mistakes too. Howell is the shining star right now that needs to be taken care of this coming off season with first consideration on, OL, Big WR,TE, Back with receiving abilities. 2nd. tier QB.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

7 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Eh... if you're referencing the one I think you are, I was listening to the radio call, and London Fletcher said something like "Terry McLaurin is going to be kicking himself after that play because he missed his block badly and if he made it, the play would have gone for at least 10 yards." He came back to say Terry was going to see it in the film room and not be happy about it about 3 times.

 

So, that could be the execution being bad and the call being ok. 

I still don’t think it’s a good call to bunch everyone up on that side of the field, to run a bubble screen on 3rd and 5.  It would have actually been a better time to call the play he ran on 4th and 1.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

I am not 100% sold on Howell.  I want to see more of a sample size but i lean optimistic.  Don't get anyone who thinks they've seen enough and he's not that guy

 

Galdi's comment below is shared sentiment wise with Keim.

 

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Brisset and Samuel would be my first trades if possible. Sign the practice squad QB of KC? Why so many same type WR's on the team?  Ron's biggest mistake is this last offseason, his draft and free agents so far are a bust and where he chose to fill the needs first..... I had high hopes going into the draft with Howell on a rookie contract and getting the chance to start instead of some other teams cast off. It was all there to be had OL,TE at the top of the list for me. The FA OL are sucking up the field and look like big mistakes too. Howell is the shining star right now that needs to be taken care of this coming off season with first consideration on, OL, Big WR,TE, Back with receiving abilities. 2nd. tier QB.  

 

Keim-Nicki from WP discussed on the Keim podcast.  Samuel's issue is he's banged up right now.  They don't think they'd trade Brissett because they'd think its for a late round pick and this team values him as a backup-mentor for Sam.

[skinsfan66]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Feels that way -- the doomed losing regime playing out their last season.  We've seen that movie before. 

 

I don't enjoy being right about this.  And it didn't take Nostradamas to predict this.  And I know you were with the same point.  That is, Rivera's lackluster off season.

 

Some people made fun of me when I made this case this off season.  You got a stimulated fan base.  Throwing them some bones.  For some "aggressiveness" means stupid because of Vinny Cerrato-Dan's version of that.  The thing is they were just stupid.  It wasn't that they were aggressive and being aggressive by nature means stupid.  Some are conditioned to think that way.  Heck some would defend Bruce's regime in part by lauding his lack of aggressiveness.  So year he made low key, cheap FA signings like Quick, Pryor, etc.  But heck at least the misses aren't big misses.  That alone should be applauded.

 

We've escaped though the dungeon and low expectations.  We got a competent owner who shoots for the fences.  An owner who cares about hiring top personnel people and giving them all the resources they need.  Night and day from the previous clown show ownership.  We can dream bigger.

 

If people don't like aggressive acquistions in trades-FA, Howie Roseman style.  Then how about Howie Roseman style, trading down, acquiring multiple draft picks to build for the future.  That's something that Dan, Bruce or Ron doesn't do. 

 

When Keim mentioned in a tweet, an aggressive off season I doubt it was by accident.  Aside from Ron going with no frills, non sexy offseasons -- he doubled down on that approach in the worst year to do it.  The year where fans are coming back and interested.  He had organic interest from fans and he could care less about it.    And look I don't care about having sexier off seasons if the regime is really good at what they do.  but this regime isn't.  So if you go 7-10, couple with doing everything in a bland way -- its death to stir fan interest.

 

 

 

 Last off season should send some coaches packing after this off season. They blew it and waisted another off season and a chance to build on a team that was on the uptick. If they make the right picks and FA's and we were 3 and 5, I think most would believe in the build or growth for one more year.    

[FootballZombie]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am not 100% sold on Howell.  I want to see more of a sample size but i lean optimistic.  Don't get anyone who thinks they've seen enough and he's not that guy

 

'Bout where I am.

 

He has done well in what he has shown. I'm not sold yet, but the returns so far are mostly good.

And like 60% of the things holding me back from from believing he is the guy are a result of things moreso beyond his control than himself.

[skinsfan66]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am not 100% sold on Howell.  I want to see more of a sample size but i lean optimistic.  Don't get anyone who thinks they've seen enough and he's not that guy

 

Galdi's comment below is shared sentiment wise with Keim.

 

 

 

 

 

Keim-Nicki from WP discussed on the Keim podcast.  Samuel's issue is he's banged up right now.  They don't think they'd trade Brissett because they'd think its for a late round pick and this team values him as a backup-mentor for Sam.

Yea I understand about the mentor thing but 5/6 rd. pick would tip the scale for me. We have replacements for Samuel's 7/6 rd. pick would do it for me. Just seem the likely for me. 

[Warhead36]

If we're not gonna be in the running for one of the superstar QB prospects, then the best case scenario is for Howell to show he can at least be a solid starting QB in this league. A solid starter on a rookie contract means we can at least load up the team around him for the new staff over the next couple seasons and really make a run.

 

[srtman04]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If we're not gonna be in the running for one of the superstar QB prospects, then the best case scenario is for Howell to show he can at least be a solid starting QB in this league. A solid starter on a rookie contract means we can at least load up the team around him for the new staff over the next couple seasons and really make a run.

 

 

And Sam will just keep getting better from here.   He's so young and has been impressive so far this year.   He has already exceeded my expectations,  everything else is just gravy at this point.  

[HigSkin]

 

[Warhead36]

I'd like to see Howell string together 2 or 3 good performances in a row against a team not from Philly before making any sort of declaration.

[Hooper]

The people who have decided Sam isn't the guy obviously don't watch other QBs play outside of highlights.

 

My goodness it is a horror show out there in the NFL.

 

With Sam, you at least have someone to be optimistic about. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Hooper

[Skinsinparadise]

[Warhead36]

4 minutes ago, Hooper said:

The people who have decided Sam isn't the guy obviously don't watch other QBs play outside of highlights.

 

My goodness it is a horror show out there in the NFL.

 

With Sam, you at least have someone to be optimistic about. 

I'm not sure if Howell is the guy. I've liked a lot of what I've seen. I've also seen some not so good things. Is he better then a lot of guys playing right now? Absolutely. That's why I said at this very moment he's probably around league average, but definitely has the potential to grow.

 

I guess you can say I have tempered optimism. Like I said before, I'll wait until the end of the season before attempting to make any declarative statement one way or another.

 

I also didn't completely kill the guy and give up on him after the bad games against the Bills and Giants.

[DJHJR86]

Do people know that "I'm not 100% sold on Howell being the guy" does not mean "Howell isn't the guy"?  I haven't seen one person, outside of that guy from the Washington Post who was harping on the sacks, declare that Howell is not the guy.  99% of this fanbase thinks he's the guy already.  It's been mostly effusive praise.  

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

Next drive: This drive went from 7:17 in the 4th to 4:14 in the 4th.  

Play 1: 1st and 10 - Robinson Run for 10 yards

Play 2: 1st and 10 - Robinson Run for 7 yards

Play 3: 2nd and 3 - Howell complete to Gibson for 17 yards

Play 4: 1st and 10 - Howell incomplete to Dotson

Play 5: 2nd and 10 - Robinson run for 2 yards

Play 6: 3rd and 8 - Howell incomplete to McLaurin (kindof a tough catch for McLaurin, but he might have been able to catch it)

Play 7: 4th and 8 - Howell incomplete to McLaurin (kindof a tough catch for McLaurin, but he might have been able to catch it)

Turnover on downs at the Philly 40.  

 

Play 1: 1st and 10 - Incomplete to McLaurin

Play 2: 2nd and 10 - Complete to McLaurin for 5 yards

Play 3: Incomplete to Dotson, which was debatable, was first complete then incomplete.

Paly 4: Sack because Wylie sucks.

 

Down 7 points with just a bit more than 3 minutes to go and all of our TOs.

 

Eagles defense has their ears pinned back blitzing every down trying to get a TO or knock us back with a sack.

 

You're saying that going 2-7 and a sack was the best we could do? Good decisions when BRob is averaging 5.9 a carry on the day and better on the second to last drive.

 

The Dotson catch should have counted and Terry should have caught one of those balls, but the pass rush forced bad throws.

 

You're saying that a clock milking drive using the run to offset their pressure was a bad idea?

 

We were in the perfect position to control the end of the game, get in the endzone and win it with 2 like we should have the first game.

 

But we decided to pass 8 out of 9 ties when the team with the 3rd most sacks is just trying to get sacks. And we lost.

[Thinking Skins]

I won't post the whole article but its a nice read

 

https://sumersports.com/the-zone/average-depth-of-target-carries-less-weight-than-it-used-to/

 

Often considered the best quarterback in the league, Patrick Mahomes was first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per pass attempt while having the 26th highest ADoT. Continuing the trend of success despite a lower ADoT, Kyle Shanahan’s offense was ranked 2nd in EPA per pass while Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo had the 22nd and 29th highest ADoT respectively.  

In the current NFL, the path to having an efficient passing attack does not need to stem from throwing deep shots excessively. 

 

 

 

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am not 100% sold on Howell.  I want to see more of a sample size but i lean optimistic.  Don't get anyone who thinks they've seen enough and he's not that guy

 

Depends what we mean by sold. As a perennial top 10 NFL QB - no. We need to see more. But as a guy who has that potential and who we should be planning to build around for next season? I'm sold.

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Keim-Nicki from WP discussed on the Keim podcast.  Samuel's issue is he's banged up right now.  They don't think they'd trade Brissett because they'd think its for a late round pick and this team values him as a backup-mentor for Sam.

 

I dont think either guy gets you more than a day 3 pick - and they are probably more valuable to us here right now  helping Sam develop (in different ways) than that.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Depends what we mean by sold. As a perennial top 10 NFL QB - no. We need to see more. But as a guy who has that potential and who we should be planning to build around for next season? I'm sold.

 

 

I am pretty much the same place.  Is he an NFL QB yes.  Is he a top 10, i don't know.  Maybe.  I need to see more.  I've been glass half full with Howell from the second we drafted him so i am definitely in the Howell camp here.

 

I want to see the whole season before deciding to skip this draft at QB.  I learn right now to skip QB.  I'd much rather load up on the O line in the draft.  But I am not quite there yet to fully embrace skipping QB in this coming draft (especially if we end up with a top 10 pick and the spot is as loaded as some believe) albiet I am definitely learning that way as to skipping it. 

 

At this point two years ago I was living and dying with every QB that looked draftable including Howell.  Right now, I've paid almost no attention to it aside from casually watching some of the QBs.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

The thing is we won't be bad enough to finish with one of the high picks to get a QB.

 

So the question is, would you rather have Howell with two years left on his rookie deal having to learn his third new offense in three years, OR would you rather mortgage the future in draft capital to move up to get a Williams or Maye or whomever, but also get a guy with likely higher upside and with a 4-5 year rookie contract window?

 

The new regime will have to answer these questions, but its imperative they get it right.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

But it also emphasizes Howell's strength. He has a really strong arm and can fit the ball quickly into tight windows and we have smaller but speedier WRs who can get open quickly in the short and intermediate routes who can then pick up YAC.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

But it also emphasizes Howell's strength. He has a really strong arm and can fit the ball quickly into tight windows and we have smaller but speedier WRs who can get open quickly in the short and intermediate routes who can then pick up YAC.

 

Usually teams that can pick marquee QBs in the draft don't trade away their picks.  If the draft happened today, the top 6 teams in the draft, I think zero chance they'd deal the pick.   I think their only fighting chance to find a team willing to deal a pick is if the Bears end up with the first and 2nd pick.

 

But right now, I think the lets consider trading for Maybe camp is maybe not quite pie in the sky but close to that -- feels far fetched at a minimum.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Skinsinparadise