The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Carsonfanforlife]

So we are basically going to give 2 3rd round picks and about $27M away for a 6 game sample of Wentz? Doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do, why not give him another game or 2 to see what he can do with an improved defense, run game and healthy WR's? Why are people so quick to get rid of players after such small sample sizes of games? This season is pretty much a bust right now lets see what we have with Wentz or Howell.

[FLSkinz83]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

In my specific posts:

 

A.  you questioned the premise of whether is Wentz is better than Heinicke in the RZ.   

 

B.  Then I've seen you in multiple posts talk about Wentz's stats by sticking to his last 4 games -- which seems odd considering:  A.  why not take the full sample?   B.  the Bears game, his last one, is a bit unfair to grade him considering he played that game hurt.  

 

So it didn't come off that you are trying to make Wentz look good at a minimum.  If I want a player to look worse, I'd also not take their full sample, and cherry pick the sample that makes them look worse and oversample the game when he wasn't right physically. 

 

Hence that's what I was wondering about.  But like I said i don't really care about Wentz or Heinicke.  And yes I do think they are the bigger problem over Scott Turner or the O line.  I am not sure what I think of Turner.   But I do trust my own eyes that Heinicke and Wentz are inaccurate whether under pressure or not and they are both lacking for multiple reasons.

 

I am optimitic about this roster.  I like the defense.  I like the Wrs.  I like the RBs.    And while I understand the correlation of O line play and QB play, I also don't think its that hard to isolate both as problems.  People like Paulsen, Jay Gruden, Cooley who are miles more smarter than me about offense to say the least -- echos these same points.

 

All I want for Christmas is Dan gone.  And the bonus would be a new Qb and serious O line upgrades. 

 

I'm not trying to make Wentz look bad.  As you have rightfully pointed out, I defended Wentz when he was playing.    I mentioned the last 4 games because it was becoming a trend.

 

It's not like the first 4 games were bad and the last two were good.    I also think losing Roullier was/is a big problem.

 

But this is about the situation Wentz and TH are in vs. comparing them against each other.

 

Neither QB is great.   But we disagree regarding Turner and the O-line.   I respect your opinion and everyone else who thinks I'm clueless.    

 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

Jahan Dotson is a way better WR than I gave him credit for coming out. He's definitely a bright spot. 

Me too. I thought and still think he was a reach where he was selected, w/o question, but the good news on him is that he's a 100% hit. He's a legit starting WR in this league. Gone are the days where we go decades drafting nothing but busts like Howard, Westbunk, Tydus Winans, Albert Connell, Rod 50/50 Gardner, the entire hopeless '08 class etc. We've now hit big with two WR draft picks in 4 years. 

 

I should probably note, of the guys selected after that I would have taken:

Pickens

Skyy Moore

Treylon Burks.

 

However I think great arguments can be made against all 3 and are reasonable other than Pickens (kinda), namely:

 

Pickens had a bunch of character red flags.

 

Skyy Moore had competition concerns.

 

Treylon Burks had speed/acceleration/athleticism concerns. 

 

Pickens was capable of being the #1 WR in the class so I'd 100% taken him over Dotson and still would. Moore and Burks have big enough red flags to where I'd have just taken one or the other on day 2 if they were still there and gone another direction positionally. At this point, I think it's obvious that Dotson is the #2 of that group of 4, and probably will fare no worse than 3rd among them and could finish 1st. He's a hit period, which is great news long term as WR's are getting expensive in FA and we won't have to pay FA $$$ for a WR till at least his rookie option is done after 2026. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by The Consigliere

[The Consigliere]

10 minutes ago, Carsonfanforlife said:

So we are basically going to give 2 3rd round picks and about $27M away for a 6 game sample of Wentz? Doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do, why not give him another game or 2 to see what he can do with an improved defense, run game and healthy WR's? Why are people so quick to get rid of players after such small sample sizes of games? This season is pretty much a bust right now lets see what we have with Wentz or Howell.

The sample size goes back to 2016. 

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

This is what hurts so much about the turn around. If the team had just imploded after that 1-4 start, we're sitting pretty with a good and reasonably deep QB class (3-4 guys going top 5-10), but then we reel off a 6-1-1 half season and that is now a pipe dream. If we can tank our way to a 1-3 finish or 0-4 finish, there's still a possibility we pick top 8-12, and from there, taking the last of the blue chippers and/or trading up is possible. It also helps a ton that we now (I believe anyway) have only wasted a 3rd rather than a 2nd on Wentz. There's a lot that could go well or badly with how these last 3 play out. There's a huge batch of teams sitting in the 5-7 win area right now:

5 wins: 4 teams

6 wins: 5 teams

7 wins: 6 teams

4 wins and under (unreachables): 6

 

So a ton of this is is going to fluctuate in terms of draft slotting over the next few weeks. Unfortunately we'll lose most tie breakers (opponents win percentage) but there are a few teams we could hop ahead of on that. Also worth noting 2 of the 15 teams in that 5-7 zone are basically locks to make the playoffs due to the division being hot garbage (NFC and AFC South), so if we can lose 2 of 3 or 3 of 3, we have a chance to climb into the 8-12 zone probably and there are a ton of QB's that could go in round 1, seems like the floor right now is 4. 

 

I imagine the brass would rather trade for Carr or something, but please, for the love of all that is good stop the madness w/regards to stopgap QB trades. This has worked when exactly? The 1970's and Brad Johnson (which was a crazy overpay)? Since then it's been Boonell, McNabb, Alex Smith, and Wentz, and just spinning our wheels. One can only hope we actually draft one this year and use the 2nd on the best available OL I suppose? 

 

 

 

 

The team is for sale, all you are getting in 23 is stopgap. The new owner will have his people in place in 24 and they may not agree with whatever Ron does at Qb in 23 and move on. Also, Ron may not be the coach in 24.

18 minutes ago, Carsonfanforlife said:

So we are basically going to give 2 3rd round picks and about $27M away for a 6 game sample of Wentz? Doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do, why not give him another game or 2 to see what he can do with an improved defense, run game and healthy WR's? Why are people so quick to get rid of players after such small sample sizes of games? This season is pretty much a bust right now lets see what we have with Wentz or Howell.

We are still the 7th seed at least for another week.

[Skinsinparadise]

28 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 

 

Neither QB is great.   But we disagree regarding Turner and the O-line.   I respect your opinion and everyone else who thinks I'm clueless.    

 

 

I don't think its a clueless take.  But I don't think its hard to isolate the variables.  Taylor had one of the better O lines in the league last year according to PFF, and he still wasn't hot.  My take is similar to Cooley's which is we sort of see who Heinicke is now.  We can upgrade around him and he still wouldn't be that different.    Lack of size, lack of accuracy-arm strength puts a ceiling on his game.  

 

I think the trend that Wentz showed is heck with a broken finger where he couldn't literally throw the ball much against the Bears they won anyway thanks to the defense and the running game and controlling the clock. 

 

But I don't see Wentz as a gamer.  He's not the dude I want playing in high stakes situations.  And everything now is high stakes.  So its a conudrum IMO. 

 

PFF grades from yesterday, Heinicke's running actually elevated to higher than what it typically is with them.  

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[tshile]

30 minutes ago, Carsonfanforlife said:

Why are people so quick to get rid of players after such small sample sizes of games?

He’s sucked for a while. Sorry about your screen name. 
 

 

[redskinss]

6 minutes ago, tshile said:

He’s sucked for a while. Sorry about your screen name. 
 

 

He has but everything he showed in the first 6 games of the year we already knew about him.

Which means the front office is going to have to explain why they gave up significant draft capital and a mid to high range contract for a guy with problems they knew existed and were only going to give it 6 games to see if they could coach it out of him.

Feels like trading two 3rd round picks to move up to 2 to draft a project quarterback and giving him 6 games before you release him.

At that point with wentz's recent history you'd almost have to assume there were things non football related going on behind the scenes we didn't know about. 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

An interesting tidbit I heard on the radio this morning, not sure exactly who it was but there are guys in the locker room that believe Wentz got a raw deal.  Obviously nobody is going to go on record with that. 

[FLSkinz83]

I think coaching can mask weaknesses.   I don't think Turner does that at all.   I know some people give him credit for maximizing the limited talent of TH, but I just don't see that.

 

 

[tshile]

3 minutes ago, redskinss said:

At that point with wentz's recent history you'd almost have to assume there were things non football related going on behind the scenes we didn't know about. 
 

yeah like the dip**** owner made it happen 

 

The problem with the pick was we got fleeced. For a guy they were going to cut. At a minimum we shouldn’t have paid the 26 million. 
 

youre going to miss on players. It happens. How often and how is what matters. And we have a history of overlaying for ****ty QB’s regardless who supposedly is making the decisions. 
 

so connect your own dots there 😂 

[FLSkinz83]

3 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

An interesting tidbit I heard on the radio this morning, not sure exactly who it was but there are guys in the locker room that believe Wentz got a raw deal.  Obviously nobody is going to go on record with that. 

 

In what sense?   That he got blamed too much or that he hasn't gotten his job back?

[zCommander]

5 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 

In what sense?   That he got blamed too much or that he hasn't gotten his job back?

 

Pretty sure it is about him not coming back after being all healed up.

[tshile]

I’m sure you can find a number of opinions in the locker room

 

im gonna go ahead and say I trust Rivera to manage that. Think he’s shown himself to know how to read the room. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

6 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 

In what sense?   That he got blamed too much or that he hasn't gotten his job back?

They didn’t elaborate, just stated that they know for certain as they’ve been told by players off the record that they thought Carson got a raw deal.

 

I assume they mean that he effectively lost his job due to injury and general consensus was that he was the problem.

1 minute ago, tshile said:

I’m sure you can find a number of opinions in the locker room

 

im gonna go ahead and say I trust Rivera to manage that. Think he’s shown himself to know how to read the room. 

I agree with this. 
 

In fact, Rivera’s face and responses in regards to Taylor’s play week after week say that he wishes the locker room would allow him to bench Taylor. 🤣

[tshile]

2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

In fact, Rivera’s face and responses in regards to Taylor’s play week after week say that he wishes the locker room would allow him to bench Taylor. 🤣

If I were to guess, my guess would be that Rivera has been looking for a way out of the Taylor Heinicke experiment. 
 

and I think the two fumbles should be enough but idk if he’ll do it. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Finlay opined about this today.  He said coaches like to make transitions when the transition can show some instant success and he feels that SF is a too tough of a match up to throw Wentz to the wolves from the jump.   

 

Playing off of that point, I think you can still play Wentz against SF but let Heinicke start and if he struggles then bring him in. 

 

Do I think Wentz was given a raw deal?  Not sure.  But i do think the situation now is a better one for him to succeed based on points I made in a recent post.  Does he succeed?  I got no idea.   Wentz from what i hear is a very competitive dude so I think he'd be amped.  But he also doesn't have the rep of being a gamer.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

8 minutes ago, tshile said:

If I were to guess, my guess would be that Rivera has been looking for a way out of the Taylor Heinicke experiment. 
 

and I think the two fumbles should be enough but idk if he’ll do it. 

I feel like one more half of bad football and the locker room will understand he has to make a move.

 

I wouldn’t have been opposed to him making that move at halftime last night.  The team needed a spark and Taylor came out after halftime and put together perhaps the best and most competent all around drive he’s had since he’s been here.  It seems he plays his best football when he thinks the bench is calling his name, and then he immediately reverts back to the guy who should be on the bench.

Edited December 19, 2022 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[tshile]

12 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

The team needed a spark and Taylor came out after halftime and put together perhaps the best and most competent all around drive he’s had since he’s been here.  It seems he plays his best football when he thinks the bench is calling his name, and then he immediately reverts back to the guy who should be on the bench.

Counter point, which I made after the game last night:

 

take the damn training wheels off and let the kid throw the ball around. Run it because we can and being balanced helps, but stop trying to protect him. 
 

we gain nothing by protecting him. Nothing. At best we get our doors blown off in the playoffs. 
 

if he throws 3 picks and we lose at least it’ll be because we tried, instead of losing because we were conservative most of the game and let him wing it around out of desperation. 
 

he may be playing his best when the games on the line because that’s the only time we let him…

 

im sure it’ll fail but **** at least you’re trying …

[FootballZombie]

TH is just free-falling down various metric lists.

 

This is some absolute historically bad QB play we have been forced to witness here. I don't think in my tenure as a Wash fan I have been exposed to QB play this consistently bad from anyone who was not a spot starter or emergency play.

 

60+ ranked QB on PFF?!
2nd worse QB in the red zone in the last several years?!

 

He is unbelievably, unfathomably and undeniably horrendous. Every game is just an attempt to prevent him from depth charging his own team.

[ntotoro]

The only way I can say he had a "raw deal" was in that you don't lose your job to injury. The team saw enough of Heiney during that time to see he wasn't the answer. We know Wentz isn't. Be curious to see what he can do now, considering the last three games have been pretty lackluster for Heiney.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

11 minutes ago, ntotoro said:

The only way I can say he had a "raw deal" was in that you don't lose your job to injury. The team saw enough of Heiney during that time to see he wasn't the answer. We know Wentz isn't. Be curious to see what he can do now, considering the last three games have been pretty lackluster for Heiney.

It’s easier to feel like he got a raw deal as Heinicke’s play has gotten worse as Wentz health has gotten better.

 

15 minutes ago, tshile said:

take the damn training wheels off and let the kid throw the ball around. Run it because we can and being balanced helps, but stop trying to protect him. 

I think there’s enough history here to know that’s a guaranteed failure.  We’ve been fortunate enough he hasn’t blown more games when limiting his throws.  
 

All the moves are easy for us to make because we don’t have to make them.  I actually saw this coming many weeks ago.  That Heinicke’s play was going to get worse week by week, we’d lose some games and Ron would be put in the unenviable position to make a move.  He sticks with Heinicke, he plays bad they miss the playoffs.  He moves on to Wentz, he stinks and then everyone second guesses that decision.  

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

1 hour ago, Carsonfanforlife said:

So we are basically going to give 2 3rd round picks and about $27M away for a 6 game sample of Wentz? Doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do, why not give him another game or 2 to see what he can do with an improved defense, run game and healthy WR's? Why are people so quick to get rid of players after such small sample sizes of games? This season is pretty much a bust right now lets see what we have with Wentz or Howell.

I will never trust a person whose name is Carsonfanforlife. But yes, put in Howell.

[Wafers]

I get that you do not lose your job due to injury but Wentz stunk even before his injury.  I mean he was 2-4 with 2 wins from Jags and bears.  He would have been benched if he had not been injured.  

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 minutes ago, Wafers said:

I get that you do not lose your job due to injury but Wentz stunk even before his injury.  I mean he was 2-4 with 2 wins from Jags and bears.  He would have been benched if he had not been injured.  

 

 

My point was not that he got a raw deal, just that it was interesting to hear a narrative twist.  There was also a point last season where the narrative was Everybody Loves Heinicke, and then things started going sour and that died.