All things defense

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Meanwhile Payne's market value seems low.

 

That would be really nice if it ends up being accurate.  I have been skeptical that Daron is going to get a backbreaking extension for a couple of key reasons:

 

1 - He plays a pure IDL position.  He's not splitting out wide to end ever like Chris Jones, Jon Allen, and DeForest Buckner do.  Looking at his snaps, looks like all of them were taken at some sort of DT position.  Pure DT's haven't really gotten paid much over the past several offseasons.  Even Aaron Donald was only making like 14-15 million AAV until his most recent extension.

 

2 - He doesn't have any career awards like Allen did, who made the Pro-bowl last year.  I was sweating this contract situation all season long, but the fact that so many DTs had big seasons and kept Daron out of the Pro-Bowl and off All-Pro teams was really fortunate for us.  Normally 11 sacks for a DT would at least get you in the Pro-Bowl, but five DTs had double digit sacks this season, and some other guys who didn't hit that mark like Allen and Dexter Lawrence had really great years that got them into the Probowl.

 

3 - He's super underrated by analytical media sources like PFF.  I don't know why, but for whatever reason they have always underrated him and he doesn't have the kind of buzzy reputation heading into free agency that could drive up his price.

 

I could be wrong, but I just don't think there is a robust market for DTs right now because there are so many star DTs in the league right now.  Kind of reminds me of how weak the market at ILB got the past couple of years, only I don't think the DT market will be that weak.  We're going to have to pay Daron, but I don't think it's going to be crazy.  Maybe like a little bit more than Javon Hargrave-ish AAV gets it done?

31 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

And didn't he improve when we moved him from deep safety rotation to more snaps at slot corner.

 

Yeah I think you're right.  I also think he had problems with William Jackson and, like many of the other guys in the secondary, played better once Jackson was gone.

 

I think you're correct that slot corner is his best position.  McCain is a lot scrappier than I realized and I think he thrives on opportunities for hard contact that he gets playing in an overhang/slot role.  I remember he popped on some plays where he got to run the alley or hit crossing receivers in underneath zones.  Looked good doing it and I remember being surprised to realize it was McCain making those plays.

[Acworth skins fan]

I hear so and so didn’t make the pro bowl. To me the pro bowl is a popularity contest. Washington fans have dwindled over the years, imagine that, so not as many people voting. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Acworth skins fan
Hate spell check

[Going Commando]

42 minutes ago, SpacePenguin said:

 

I was referring to AV when I mentioned analytics, not to get into semantics. Maybe that term is best reserved for more subjective metrics, like PFF. 

 

We disagree completely on Curl. You have AV to back up your perspective and I have my eyeballs. There's no reason you should value my eyeballs any more than I value AV, which isn't much.

 

I do get where you're coming from now on Jackson/Curl now, though.

 

Fair enough.  AV is not perfect by any stretch, but I like it's ability to cut through emotional biases and offer a sobering calculation of individual contributions to the offense or defense.  Brian Robinson is a really good example of it's value.  He's a fan favorite and media darling with an incredible story that makes him impossible to root against.  He's also funny and charismatic and the rugged nature of the plays he makes have given him an aura of stardom.  All of us love him, and when you see he had a 3 AV season, you think "that can't be right."  But then you look at his actual numbers and see he only ran for 800 yards and 2 TDs against 2 Fumbles on a 3.9 yard per carry average and see that yeah, he wasn't actually that individually good or productive this season.

 

That's a big part of the value of AV.  You don't want to be paying for the story with a player, you want to pay for the production.

[Warhead36]

28 minutes ago, Acworth skins fan said:

I hear so and so didn’t make the pro bowl. To me the pro bowl is a popularity contest. Washington fans have dwindled over the years, imagine that, so not as many people voting. 

Well three DTs per conference make the Pro Bowl. Donald has one on lockdown until he retires. Allen is better than Payne and Lawrence has the New York factor.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Warhead36

[skinsfan66]

On 1/11/2023 at 1:11 PM, Warhead36 said:

Well three DTs per conference make the Pro Bowl. Donald has one on lockdown until he retires. Allen is better than Payne and Lawrence has the New York factor.

Payne was first alternate and pretty sure Donald is not playing unless he is healthy now.  So, he will play hopefully and be pro bowl player.  

[Koolblue13]

 

[Conn]

I’m sure he was already wearing contacts but that can only help him

[method man]

On 1/11/2023 at 12:43 PM, Acworth skins fan said:

I hear so and so didn’t make the pro bowl. To me the pro bowl is a popularity contest. Washington fans have dwindled over the years, imagine that, so not as many people voting. 

I feel it used to be more of one and you don’t have many undeserving Pro Bowlers anymore

[skinsfan66]

Payne just made the top 100 players along with Terry, Allen did not.  Commanders rushed 3men only at times in the last Dallas game with Payne in middle, he did have a sack in the game without Allen. 

[Chris 44]

On 1/21/2023 at 7:19 AM, Koolblue13 said:

 

 

[Warhead36]

3 hours ago, skinsfan66 said:

Payne just made the top 100 players along with Terry, Allen did not.  Commanders rushed 3men only at times in the last Dallas game with Payne in middle, he did have a sack in the game without Allen. 

I mean that list is often a popularity contest and most players probably just look at #s and see "Ohh Daron Payne had 11 sacks? He's definitely better than Jon Allen" not realizing that Allen does so much more and is a much more consistent presence.

 

Not that Payne isn't deserving of being on the top 100, but I don't think he's a better all around player than Allen.

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Warhead36

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

Curl is good but we're also really thin at S behind him. And Forrest in particular looked lost out there without him.

 

Hopefully we can give Curl a nice long term extension this off season. He shouldn't cost that much since he hasn't made any Pro Bowls and doesn't have that much league wide recognition.

[MrJL]

On 1/11/2023 at 12:32 PM, Going Commando said:

 

That would be really nice if it ends up being accurate.  I have been skeptical that Daron is going to get a backbreaking extension for a couple of key reasons:

 

1 - He plays a pure IDL position.  He's not splitting out wide to end ever like Chris Jones, Jon Allen, and DeForest Buckner do.  Looking at his snaps, looks like all of them were taken at some sort of DT position.  Pure DT's haven't really gotten paid much over the past several offseasons.  Even Aaron Donald was only making like 14-15 million AAV until his most recent extension.

 

I'm not sure how many teams are using them at the moment, but he's not really just a DT, is he?  He's also a NT

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Curl is good but we're also really thin at S behind him. And Forrest in particular looked lost out there without him.

 

Hopefully we can give Curl a nice long term extension this off season. He shouldn't cost that much since he hasn't made any Pro Bowls and doesn't have that much league wide recognition.

 

I disagree.  I'm very happy with Curl, Forrest and Butler as out top three safeties and re-sign Reaves as the fourth guy.  I'd actually be cool with us releasing McCain as a cap move

[method man]

15 hours ago, MrJL said:

 

I'm not sure how many teams are using them at the moment, but he's not really just a DT, is he?  He's also a NT

 

I disagree.  I'm very happy with Curl, Forrest and Butler as out top three safeties and re-sign Reaves as the fourth guy.  I'd actually be cool with us releasing McCain as a cap move

You almost have to count McCain as a nickel CB at this point, a role that he is overpaid for. To your point, it’s be great to add another guy on Day 3. 

[Zim489]

I have no idea what a good value contract is for Kam. He does his role extremely well. The defense craters with out him (I think this is more to the void around him as opposed to himself in terms of coverage ability in the middle of the field) It just that he produces zero plays. He has has 3 INTs in 3 years. None since his first year. Zero FF. 4 Sacks and an average of 1 TFL every 3 games.

 

With defense moving more and more away from just being fundamentally sound and into TOs and negative plays he doesnt really add anything. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

On 1/30/2023 at 11:48 AM, Zim489 said:

I have no idea what a good value contract is for Kam. He does his role extremely well. The defense craters with out him (I think this is more to the void around him as opposed to himself in terms of coverage ability in the middle of the field) It just that he produces zero plays. He has has 3 INTs in 3 years. None since his first year. Zero FF. 4 Sacks and an average of 1 TFL every 3 games.

 

With defense moving more and more away from just being fundamentally sound and into TOs and negative plays he doesnt really add anything. 

I'd argue that, because his presence prevents the opposing team from generating big plays, it kinda equates to the same thing.

[skinsfan66]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

DJ Edwards free agent eagles rumors they cannot or have a replacement for him in the wings. If so he is one of the few free agents I would make a pitch for.  like to keep Holcum too.  

[Going Commando]

Jamin is a machine.  Been watching so many small linebackers for the draft that it really makes me appreciate a prototype dude like Jamin who can stack and shed linemen and still glide around the field in coverage.  We've got dogs up the middle of our defense.  D-Fo?  Dog.  Jamin?  Dog.  Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne?  ****ing Irish Wolfhounds.

[Going Commando]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDgo5aR1pok&t=109s

 

Allen's highlight video from this past season.  Dude is so damn good.  He's becoming one of my favorite players that we've ever had.

[Koolblue13]

18 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDgo5aR1pok&t=109s

 

Allen's highlight video from this past season.  Dude is so damn good.  He's becoming one of my favorite players that we've ever had.

I agree. I kinda forget about just how special he is, because of Payne.

[bird_1972]

10 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Jamin is a machine.  Been watching so many small linebackers for the draft that it really makes me appreciate a prototype dude like Jamin who can stack and shed linemen and still glide around the field in coverage.  We've got dogs up the middle of our defense.  D-Fo?  Dog.  Jamin?  Dog.  Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne?  ****ing Irish Wolfhounds.

 

I gather that Jamin has improved since a lackluster rookie year (probably miscast as MLB) and a couple of rough outings at the beginning of this season. Would you say he's a solid starter at this point? Good but not great for a 1st rounder but I'll take it. 

 

We just need another LB in the draft. 

[method man]

10 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

I gather that Jamin has improved since a lackluster rookie year (probably miscast as MLB) and a couple of rough outings at the beginning of this season. Would you say he's a solid starter at this point? Good but not great for a 1st rounder but I'll take it. 

 

We just need another LB in the draft. 

Yes. I want to see him make more splash plays in 2023. I think blitzing him more is a way to do that. He picked up his sacks early in the season and he was a good blitzer at Kentucky. Also easier for him to do once Holcomb is back or he gets another competent LB to pair with

[RandyHolt]

I'm still irked that its commonly accepted by DC DCs that prevent is the only option when pitching a shutout and the opposition gets the ball with 3 minutes left in the first half. The rest of the league seems to be focused on trying to get the ball back with time to get the final possession of the half.

Edited February 4, 2023 by RandyHolt