All things defense

[Est.1974]

So the Ravens give Roquan Smith 100mil extension. You simply have to pay the money the league rates dictate. 

 

Bottom line, that principle applies to Payne. You either meet the demands or he’s gone. It’s not that complex.

[HogsVa7]

What do you think Payne will be asking for?

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, HogsVa7 said:

What do you think Payne will be asking for?

4 years 85mil, half of it fully guaranteed.

[Chris 44]

22 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

4 years 85mil, half of it fully guaranteed.

Allen got 20 mil year last year?  21 and change is probably on the low end.

[Est.1974]

4 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

Allen got 20 mil year last year?  21 and change is probably on the low end.

Well 85-90mil range on & years. He’ll want a heavy chunk fully gtd. 

[Chris 44]

Just now, Est.1974 said:

Well 85-90mil range on & years. He’ll want a heavy chunk fully gtd. 

Yeah I think these negotiations are going to get a bit tense.

[Conn]

If they try to tag him it’s going to get ugly. He doesn’t strike me as someone who will want to “bet on himself” again and play on the tag until he hits FA. He’ll threaten to sit out until he’s traded, he knows he already performed as much as he needs to in a contract year. 

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Conn said:

If they try to tag him it’s going to get ugly. He doesn’t strike me as someone who will want to “bet on himself” again and play on the tag until he hits FA. He’ll threaten to sit out until he’s traded, he knows he already performed as much as he needs to in a contract year. 

 

Could be.  I can't recall a player in a long time here where both the beat guys say the player really really wants a big pay day, and the player himself reveals the same thing and practically flaunts it.

 

I don't think Payne cares if he played in the XFL next season if that's where he'd get the biggest payday.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[UK Skins]

I have to admit his behaviour, or posturing, is concerning. I'm getting definite vibes he doesn't want to be here and that, coupled with the suspicion that we have just seen a classic "contract year performance", makes me very wary. Agree if we tag him it could cause problems but I'm starting to think we shouldn't pay him elite DT money.

[Warhead36]

3 hours ago, UK Skins said:

I have to admit his behaviour, or posturing, is concerning. I'm getting definite vibes he doesn't want to be here and that, coupled with the suspicion that we have just seen a classic "contract year performance", makes me very wary. Agree if we tag him it could cause problems but I'm starting to think we shouldn't pay him elite DT money.

He wants to be paid. Period. And I don't blame him one bit. 

 

Remember when people thought McLaurin didn't want to be here either when he wasn't showing up to OTAs and all that stuff last off season? We paid him and he actually had his best year yet.

 

These guys have worked their butts off their whole lives for this moment: the one big pay day to set themselves up for life. I have no issues with them being ruthless about it. Its a business. And they know as soon as they stop being worthwhile, their teams will look to get rid of them without giving it a second thought.

 

Go get yours Daron.

[UK Skins]

But Payne's behaviour is far more reminiscent of Scherff than McLaurin. Got to be a red flag IMO. He's going to demand to be paid the most and be upset when we franchise him. Just another Cousins/Scherff.

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, UK Skins said:

But Payne's behaviour is far more reminiscent of Scherff than McLaurin. Got to be a red flag IMO. He's going to demand to be paid the most and be upset when we franchise him. Just another Cousins/Scherff.

Based on what? You're just making general assumptions. 

 

Every professional athlete wants to be paid when given the opportunity. Every. Single. One. 

 

You dick em around and they'll be upset. Write em a check and they'll be happy.

 

"Show me the money."

[UK Skins]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Based on what? You're just making general assumptions. 

 

 

No I'm not. he's said numerous times he expects a massive bag. Even his sack celebration was along the same lines.

[Command The 414]

14 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

But Payne's behaviour is far more reminiscent of Scherff than McLaurin. Got to be a red flag IMO. He's going to demand to be paid the most and be upset when we franchise him. Just another Cousins/Scherff.

I agree, how many times (more then not) have good players balled out in their contract season only to cash in and then revert back to that good player status… listen I love Payne no doubt but he’s not Allen or Terry where you get what you get regardless of contract status … and their play is the same regardless too… losing Payne would be huge but again I just hope if/when he cashes in we get what we got this season again 

[Warhead36]

27 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

 

No I'm not. he's said numerous times he expects a massive bag. Even his sack celebration was along the same lines.

As has just about every good player who has hit FA ever.

 

Your argument was that he doesn't want to be HERE. That is not the case. He just wants to be paid. He'll go wherever pays him. 

 

He's not gonna give us any sort of "hometown discount" nor should he. Allen didn't. McLaurin didn't.

 

These guys have worked too hard to not extract every penny possible. That's how this business works. 

17 minutes ago, ashlynskins said:

I agree, how many times (more then not) have good players balled out in their contract season only to cash in and then revert back to that good player status… listen I love Payne no doubt but he’s not Allen or Terry where you get what you get regardless of contract status … and their play is the same regardless too… losing Payne would be huge but again I just hope if/when he cashes in we get what we got this season again 

Like you said, McLaurin and Allen didn't revert back. I don't see Payne just suddenly sucking again after he gets paid. Maybe he doens't put up 10+ sacks again, but he's always been a good and ascending young player. This notion that he's suddenly gonna be Haynesworth is just absurd. 

[Command The 414]

26 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Like you said, McLaurin and Allen didn't revert back. I don't see Payne just suddenly sucking again after he gets paid. Maybe he doens't put up 10+ sacks again, but he's always been a good and ascending young player. This notion that he's suddenly gonna be Haynesworth is just absurd. 

I don’t think he’ll become Albert and I think Payne has always been a very good player, but let’s be honest he was pretty much dominant this season and definitely Pro-Bowl (or flag football pretty much now) worthy…. Just concerned we won’t see that type of season again from him … I’m in the sign Payne camp so I will be upset if we don’t resign him.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Go get yours Daron.

 

Totally agree with you.  But get yours here Daron.

 

The dude just had his second 10 AV season and he's only 25.  Gotta keep him in the fold.

[Going Commando]

There is no controversy about re-signing Payne in my mind.  We just need to get it done and pay what it takes to make it happen.

 

Curl is the tough call.  He's got a great reputation and he's been fairly valuable, but his AV scores aren't actually good.  Only 4 AV this season, probably due to the amount of time  he missed.  Only 4 the year before too, and he didn't miss a ton of time.  He had 7 as a rookie and looked super promising then.  But frankly, he hasn't been as good or aggressive as he was his rookie year over the past two seasons.

 

This situation makes me nervous because his reputation has outpaced his actual contribution, where I don't think he's making as big an individual impact on the play of the secondary as we have been led to believe.  And there is no doubt for me that he's far more replaceable than a stud DL like Daron.

 

I feel uneasy about the Curl situation because it reminds me of how "analytics" clowns like PFF boosted up William Jackson's reputation and helped get paid even though his AV scores were crap.  Turns out no, he can't really play and we were idiots for signing him to that big bag.  With Curl, we at least know he fits in our system.  But there has to be a reasonable AAV we stick to and say goodbye if he finds someone else who will top it.

 

Earlier in the week I was musing on whether or not we should cut Kendall Fuller given how high his salary is, and the fact that we could save about 8 million from cutting him, but now I'm backing off that take.  He's a captain and just had another 7 AV season for us.  He's been our best and most productive DB over the past three years.  I think I'd let his contract play out and find other places to save money because the dude is still good.  Thomas, Roullier, Samuel, etc.  Taking it for granted that Wentz is cut.

[HigSkin]

Congrats to Jeremy Reeves...

 

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by HigSkin

[SpacePenguin]

11 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

There is no controversy about re-signing Payne in my mind.  We just need to get it done and pay what it takes to make it happen.

 

Curl is the tough call.  He's got a great reputation and he's been fairly valuable, but his AV scores aren't actually good.  Only 4 AV this season, probably due to the amount of time  he missed.  Only 4 the year before too, and he didn't miss a ton of time.  He had 7 as a rookie and looked super promising then.  But frankly, he hasn't been as good or aggressive as he was his rookie year over the past two seasons.

 

This situation makes me nervous because his reputation has outpaced his actual contribution, where I don't think he's making as big an individual impact on the play of the secondary as we have been led to believe.  And there is no doubt for me that he's far more replaceable than a stud DL like Daron.

 

I feel uneasy about the Curl situation because it reminds me of how "analytics" clowns like PFF boosted up William Jackson's reputation and helped get paid even though his AV scores were crap.  Turns out no, he can't really play and we were idiots for signing him to that big bag.  With Curl, we at least know he fits in our system.  But there has to be a reasonable AAV we stick to and say goodbye if he finds someone else who will top it.

 

 

 

Curl tends to prevent plays that have already been successful from becoming more explosive plays by taking good angles and making sure tackles.

 

I'm not surprised that he doesn't score well in analytics. Comparing him to William Jackson is apples and oranges.

 

That being said, I don't think they should break the bank....but I think Curl would be greatly missed if he signed elsewhere.

 

All things being equal, I'd rather lose Fuller...mostly due to his age and declining athleticism.

Edited January 11, 2023 by SpacePenguin

[Going Commando]

Couple more AV derived observations on the defense.

 

- Jamin got 9 AV this season.  ILBs tend to get inflated AV totals because of how many counting stats they pile up (mainly tackles), but even granting that, it's a tangibly encouraging year of progress from his 4 AV the season before.

 

- JSW got 7 AV, which is a really good season from a rotation DL.  He's a keeper and he was a bigger part of our success that he gets credit for, especially since Chase missed so much of the year.  This guy would be a starter for a team with a less loaded DL.  Just one of those boring but good players we have like Fuller.

 

- Bobby McCain got 6 AV again, which is pretty good.  I wouldn't be in a hurry to cut this dude because he's consistent year to year.  He has his match ups where he will struggle given his size, and he's obviously hit his ceiling of being a 6 AV rotation DB.  But that's pretty good to have, especially for a five million dollar cap hit.  He's versatile and played whereever we needed him too, he stays healthy, and he plays hard, and he hits with surprising pop and feistiness on solo open-field tackles.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Going Commando

[Going Commando]

3 minutes ago, SpacePenguin said:

Curl tends to prevent plays that have already been successful from becoming more explosive plays by taking good angles and making sure tackles.

 

I'm not surprised that he doesn't score well in analytics. Comparing him to William Jackson is apples and oranges.

 

Curl does get love from the analytics crowd, that was my point.  PFF loves him and has him ranked as one of their top safeties league-wide, just like they loved William Jackson and had him as one of the top FA corners the year we signed him.

 

My point is I don't think his individual contributions to the success of the D actually back up that kind of regard.  AV is just a comprehensive single metric that weighs individual contributions to the success or failure of their offense or defense, and his AV scores belie the widespread notion that he is one of our most valuable defensive players.  Both McCain and Forrest actually did more to contribute to the success of the defense this year than he did.

 

The comparison with Jackson isn't apples to oranges, it's a comparison made upon the fact that Jackson's reputation was also really high heading into his free agency, even though his AV scores were also crappy.  In that situation we got burned.  I do think Curl is better than Jackson was though, as he's at least had one good AV season in his career (7 as a rookie) whereas Jackson had never been particularly valuable before.

[HigSkin]

It's interesting with Curl that in Spotrac they don't have a "market value" tab for him so thinking they don't view him as a top safety.

 

Meanwhile Payne's market value seems low.

 

[SpacePenguin]

3 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Curl does get love from the analytics crowd, that was my point.  PFF loves him and has him ranked as one of their top safeties league-wide, just like they loved William Jackson and had him as one of the top FA corners the year we signed him.

 

My point is I don't think his individual contributions to the success of the D actually back up that kind of regard.  AV is just a comprehensive single metric that weighs individual contributions to the success or failure of their offense or defense, and his AV scores belie the widespread notion that he is one of our most valuable defensive players.  Both McCain and Forrest actually did more to contribute to the success of the defense this year than he did.

 

The comparison with Jackson isn't apples to oranges, it's a comparison made upon the fact that Jackson's reputation was also really high heading into his free agency, even though his AV scores were also crappy.  In that situation we got burned.  I do think Curl is better than Jackson was though, as he's at least had one good AV season in his career (7 as a rookie) whereas Jackson had never been particularly valuable before.

 

I was referring to AV when I mentioned analytics, not to get into semantics. Maybe that term is best reserved for more subjective metrics, like PFF. 

 

We disagree completely on Curl. You have AV to back up your perspective and I have my eyeballs. There's no reason you should value my eyeballs any more than I value AV, which isn't much.

 

I do get where you're coming from now on Jackson/Curl now, though.

 

 

 

 

[KillBill26]

20 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

4 years 85mil, half of it fully guaranteed.

That's more than I thought it would take considering Allen's deal was 4 yrs, 72 mil w 35 gtd. 

 

Maybe add a 5th year to help spread it out and extend/cut before the 5th year, maybe 5 yr, 95 mil deal w 40ish gtd?   Payne gets the satisfaction of getting more than Allen, and a massive contract within itself.  We get a little more flexibility to finagle the numbers of each cap hit to jive with the long term plan.  

9 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

It's interesting with Curl that in Spotrac they don't have a "market value" tab for him so thinking they don't view him as a top safety.

 

Meanwhile Payne's market value seems low.

 

I think they only have market value tab for pending free agents.

33 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

- Bobby McCain got 6 AV again, which is pretty good.  I wouldn't be in a hurry to cut this dude because he's consistent year to year.  He has his match ups where he will struggle given his size, and he's obviously hit his ceiling of being a 6 AV rotation DB.  But that's pretty good to have, especially for a five million dollar cap hit.  He's versatile and played whereever we needed him too, he stays healthy, and he plays hard, and he hits with surprising pop and feistiness on solo open-field tackles.

And didn't he improve when we moved him from deep safety rotation to more snaps at slot corner.