2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Ball Security]

Just now, KDawg said:

Not with the season Lawrence is having.

 

I’m guessing USC. To be with Riley. He’s developed Hurts, Murray, Mayfield.

Do you think they plan to sit Nelson his first year?  I don’t think they will.  That’s why I took off USC and obviously he sits next year if he chooses Bama.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Do you think they plan to sit Nelson his first year?  I don’t think they will.  That’s why I took off USC and obviously he sits next year if he chooses Bama.

I think Riley would rather go into year one with a guy he knows and knows the way he works. The downside is that alienates Nelson.

 

It’s tricky because it wouldn’t be a one and done with Williams, either. He’d be a two year starter. 
 

But Nelson can red shirt and then be the backup for a season and then take the reigns for 2-3 years. If he has the patience I think that is the absolute best path forward for him. 
 

 

[Ball Security]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I think Riley would rather go into year one with a guy he knows and knows the way he works. The downside is that alienates Nelson.

 

It’s tricky because it wouldn’t be a one and done with Williams, either. He’d be a two year starter. 
 

But Nelson can red shirt and then be the backup for a season and then take the reigns for 2-3 years. If he has the patience I think that is the absolute best path forward for him. 
 

 

Right, Williams has two years until he’s draft eligible.  But Nelson is ‘23, so it’ll only be Williams third year and Nelson’s true freshman year that overlap.  If Nelson’s as good as advertised, he could likely win the starting job and that’s not a good position for Williams to be in.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Right, Williams has two years until he’s draft eligible.  But Nelson is ‘23, so it’ll only be Williams third year and Nelson’s true freshman year that overlap.  If Nelson’s as good as advertised, he could likely win the starting job and that’s not a good position for Williams to be in.

Oh good point. Forgot Nelson was a Junior this year. Yeah. I think Williams to USC is a lock. Can red shirt Nelson year one.

 

Dillon Gabriel transfers from UCF to Oklahoma. I like Gabriel. I think he has mid tier NFL potential. Will see if it materializes with him at OU

Edited January 4, 2022 by KDawg

[Koolblue13]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

I’m kind of in agreement at backer. Lloyd and Dean are special. But a Denzel Perryman changes our entire defense.

 

Not so say those guys wouldn’t change it more. I’d love either of them but really what I want is for this team to address MIKE sometime this offseason with a quality player who has proven they can play MIKE. 
 

Pete Werner has come on strong and he was a second rounder. Lots of those guys. Logan Wilson last year. The UDFA from Philly. 
 

I’m not opposed to going backer in a year where we have the QB and they are the BPA. But I think we just need solid there. Not elite.

 

And rookies generally have a curve. Unfortunately this also rules out my dude Wydermyer. He’s not going to be the BPA and we have two tight ends who are quality and a pipeline behind them. 
 

We all know this year has to be QB. And for our draft position I actually think it’s a good year for QB. If we were top 3-5 I’d be a little more frustrated about it. But Howell at 9-11ish? Beautiful. 

I really want Manu to groom for our MLB.

[ultravin]

so what's the negative on Kenny Pickett?  i like what he's done this year with Pitt.  also 3 yrs plus experience.  

[skins4ever28]

1 minute ago, ultravin said:

so what's the negative on Kenny Pickett?  i like what he's done this year with Pitt.  also 3 yrs plus experience.  

They say he has the smallest hands of like any qb ever or some crap. I live 1.5 hours away from Pitt, and he’s rumored to be a bit of a party animal. But then again so was Marino. I think he’s pretty decent tho. I like the kid from liberty better. 

[Redskins 2021]

If we dont go qb what position is are most in need for us to drive.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[skins4ever28]

4 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

If we dont go qb what position is are most in need for us to drive.

Only way we shouldn’t go qb is if we get Watson/russel/Rodgers. We can’t keep this qb carousel up. Fitzpatrick woulda sucked too. Let’s just pull the trigger 

[KDawg]

8 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

If we dont go qb what position is are most in need for us to drive.

It’s QB. If it’s not, our first will be used to get a QB

Edited January 4, 2022 by KDawg

[clskinsfan]

I have started QB tape since JT Daniels wont be in my top ten most likely. Should have my top ten out over the weekend some time. Its the most exciting time of the year to be a Washington Football fan. Playoffs out of reach. On to the draft. And you all know I have been in on Kenny Pickett for months. Will be interesting to see if Corral's tape can make me like him more. 

Edited January 4, 2022 by clskinsfan

[method man]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tough to tell.  As you know from following this over the years, mocks are hit and miss but that goes triple at this time of year.    If things by chance fit the mocks than Howell slam dunk will be there at our pick and the only two QBs who might not are Corral and Pickett.

 

I think the veteran trade market needs to unfold to set the dominos in the draft.  For example, I think no way Carolina skips Qb in this draft but would do so if they traded for a veteran.  If Seattle traded Wilson do they get a veteran in return?  A lot needs to unfold.

 

I am a bit of a media junkie who loves listening to certain reporters who are often in the know.  Keim being among them.  Between his takes, Mike Silver's expose about what they considered doing last year and Rivera's own comments -- I don't think you are going to get what you want if that is punting on this until 2023.  All arrows seem pointing to them being very aggressive whether its for a veteran or trading up if they love a prospect, etc.

 

Hurney is supposedly the QB guru in the building who supposedly loved Herbert when he was coming out of the draft.    He is supposedly on this.  What his takes are on these QBs obviously we got no idea but I bet within time some stuff starts to leak. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think Keim also said on a recent pod that although Martin has the GM title, Hurney has the power in the building

[Romberjo]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

And as for stats. i think more for QBs than any other spot, context is king. . . . And as i stated in other post, your work ethic looms very large according to multiple coaches who are known to be QB gurus.  The numbers alone don't really smoke out variables like that. 

 

So yeah I do respect anayltics.  I've actually had to defend using them multiple times in some threads.  But to me there is a limit to them. 

 

I think Consigliere is distinguishing between front office-like analytics and scout-like analytics. I agree with you (and suspect he at least mostly agrees with you) about, e.g., the power of analytics to predict which particular players are going to be good NFL QBs: helpful, but not at all definitive, and no one has a basis to say they are "correct." But that's not really what he's talking about. And I don't think he's insistent that he's right about his views of particular players, analytics-driven or otherwise.

 

I agree with him, though, about front-office/GM analytics, e.g., which positions are relatively valuable to draft in the first round (given rookie salary cap, vet salary at the position, the salary necessary to get a replacement level fill-in), when it generally makes sense to trade down (or up) in the draft, etc. Why Scot McCloughan knows football a lot better than any of us, but he didn't understand some aspects of the draft all that well. He said he didn't pay attention to what others thought. That's just flat-out a mistake. Part of the optimal draft strategy requires you to take into account what you understand others' preferences to be so that your trades and picks are optimized. E.g., I knew from a comment he made on some podcast shortly before the draft  in 2016 that he was looking to draft Ryan Kelly (which he confirmed, years later); the Colts might well have figured that out, also. Could have played a role in our getting Doctson, instead (e.g., because the Colts decided not to trade down because they realized they wouldn't be able to get him, say, five spots later). He projected, thought that other teams would ignore his preferences, just like he ignored theirs.

 

If you have Kam Curl rated as a second-round talent but have good reason to believe he's widely rated as a 6th or 7th rounder, your ideal strategy is to pick him somewhat later than if he were generally understood to be a second-round pick. For those kinds of issues, which don't pertain to individual player evaluation, but to working the market, there pretty much is a (generally) correct principle as a matter of game theory. Which isn't to say that those principles can't be over-ridden in particular instances by countervailing considerations, including individual talent. But that's why he thinks he's right, because that's the area of analytics he has good reason to be confident about, not about how one balances college completion percentage against work ethic for a QB prospect.

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, skins4ever28 said:

They say he has the smallest hands of like any qb ever or some crap. I live 1.5 hours away from Pitt, and he’s rumored to be a bit of a party animal. But then again so was Marino. I think he’s pretty decent tho. I like the kid from liberty better. 

 

Another issue is that even though Pickett is a 4 year starter, he's still a 1 year wonder. He was at best a mediocre QB before this season and was averaging around 13 TDs and 9 INTs per year. Then this year he blew up with 42 TDs and 7 INTs.

 

That doesn't disqualify him or mean he won't be successful but that gives me pause. Why did it take 5 years for him to click? Was he just a super late bloomer? Not studying and practicing hard enough? Took a while to get used to Whipple's offensive scheme?

Edited January 4, 2022 by mistertim

[method man]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Another issue is that even though Pickett is a 4 year starter, he's still a 1 year wonder. He was at best a mediocre QB before this season and was averaging around 13 TDs and 9 INTs per year. Then this year he blew up with 42 TDs and 7 INTs.

 

That doesn't disqualify him or mean he won't be successful but that gives me pause. Why did it take 5 years for him to click? Was he just a super late bloomer? Not studying and practicing hard enough? Took a while to get used to Whipple's offensive scheeme?

 

Very good point. A reason why a lot of us like Corral and Howell is because they have been playing at a high level for multiple years. Corral's numbers in 2020 were explosive - he just turned the ball over a lot, which he cut down this year. Howell obviously had better seasons in 2019 and 2020 when he had talent around him

[KDawg]

I don’t think I agree about Howell having better seasons in 19/20.

 

His passing stats were a bit down. Less passes, comp %, yards, TD and a couple more INT… but 24/9, 3000+ and over 60% rate with not much around him…

 

But now factor in rushing.

 

35 yards, 1 TD in 19

146 yards and 5 TD in 20

828 yards and 11 TD in 21

 

21 was probably his most impressive season. He adapts really well to what’s needed as well. Michael Carter + Javante Williams? Less of a need to run and can throw to Newsome and Brown. None of those guys? Rush for nearly 1000 yards. 
 

He’s my guy. Corral is next. Willis is my wildcard. 
 

I’m not sold on Pickett, Strong’s knee is tissue paper. 
 

There’s still a lot of process to happen so as usual my opinion can change. 

 

 

 

[mh86]

35 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don’t think I agree about Howell having better seasons in 19/20.

 

His passing stats were a bit down. Less passes, comp %, yards, TD and a couple more INT… but 24/9, 3000+ and over 60% rate with not much around him…

 

But now factor in rushing.

 

35 yards, 1 TD in 19

146 yards and 5 TD in 20

828 yards and 11 TD in 21

 

21 was probably his most impressive season. He adapts really well to what’s needed as well. Michael Carter + Javante Williams? Less of a need to run and can throw to Newsome and Brown. None of those guys? Rush for nearly 1000 yards. 
 

He’s my guy. Corral is next. Willis is my wildcard. 
 

I’m not sold on Pickett, Strong’s knee is tissue paper. 
 

There’s still a lot of process to happen so as usual my opinion can change. 

 

 

 

Agreed. Hope we get Howell. 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, Romberjo said:

 

I think Consigliere is distinguishing between front office-like analytics and scout-like analytics. I agree with you (and suspect he at least mostly agrees with you) about, e.g., the power of analytics to predict which particular players are going to be good NFL QBs: helpful, but not at all definitive, and no one has a basis to say they are "correct." But that's not really what he's talking about. And I don't think he's insistent that he's right about his views of particular players, analytics-driven or otherwise.

 

 

Thanks.  But I think I have a good handle on his takes and how definitive he can get.  I am not the only one who has mentioned how definitive he can get.  It's all cool though. 😀

 

I've debated him for years on some players as he's debated others.  It's not just the last few days.  I recall the debate for example about Terry McLaurin.  With him explaining to me his late breakout year is a red flag and pedestrian stats scream "meh".  I debated why you got to look past that.   Factor the player, the intangibles, his YPA is actually really good, Haskins didn't go deep much and he was used as their deep threat, they had other go to WRs like Campbell, etc.   We've had other discussions like that too, especially about Wrs and QBs.

 

He's been right on some players and wrong.  As I have and others have.   So I am not picking on him.  He's good and has interesting takes on plenty.   But on some players he was VERY driven by anaylitcs.  I recall those debates well.  WRs to him is very about dominator scores, etc.  I am not saying he's wrong.  I use numbers here all the time.  Just saying from my perpsective he can take it too far.  That's just my opinion.

 

It's about a series of discussion points over years with him, not just the last few days that compelled me to dive into discussion of analytics which ironically some have accused me of using too much, he's the only one I can think of who has accused me in some debates in the past of not using them enough.  It's all cool.  It's all opinion.  He's spelled out where he departs from them about QBs in a recent post.  I felt compelled to get into how I like to use them and how I don't. 

 

 

9 hours ago, Romberjo said:

 

I agree with him, though, about front-office/GM analytics, e.g., which positions are relatively valuable to draft in the first round (given rookie salary cap, vet salary at the position, the salary necessary to get a replacement level fill-in), when it generally makes sense to trade down (or up) in the draft, etc.

 

I don't think anyone here disagrees.  But sometime again exceptions exist.

 

9 hours ago, Romberjo said:

 Why Scot McCloughan knows football a lot better than any of us, but he didn't understand some aspects of the draft all that well. He said he didn't pay attention to what others thought. That's just flat-out a mistake. Part of the optimal draft strategy requires you to take into account what you understand others' preferences to be so that your trades and picks are optimized.

 

 He came off like he doesn't care what the draft media thinks about this.   What the mock draft talking heads think.  He doesn't see them as experts.  And plenty of other scouts have said the same thing about those guys.  Some actually even like to goof on them.  It's almost a cliche.  It's come out in some of the McGinn articles from what I recall among other places as for scouts as the media talking heads not seeing prospects the same way.   So for example, what name that talking head thinks I seriously doubt influences with other teams are thinking about a prospect.  So I think its safe for Scot and other scouts to ignore them.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

Ron Rivera after playoff elimination: "This offseason is going to be very important, very vital to what I see is the plan...It's time we see this team take that big step forward."

 

Ron Rivera: "Going into the 3rd year I like to think weve taken the big steps." Adds Washington needs to make moves this offseason in free agency and draft

 

I’m reading that as somewhat conflicting, however I guess the upshot is that in the offseason we will be going all out to finally plug these major needs. Critical offseason, should be fun to watch unfold hopefully.

 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Ron Rivera after playoff elimination: "This offseason is going to be very important, very vital to what I see is the plan...It's time we see this team take that big step forward."

 

Ron Rivera: "Going into the 3rd year I like to think weve taken the big steps." Adds Washington needs to make moves this offseason in free agency and draft

 

I’m reading that as somewhat conflicting, however I guess the upshot is that in the offseason we will be going all out to finally plug these major needs. Critical offseason, should be fun to watch unfold hopefully.

 

I see it as he thinks this team has taken big steps but now it's time to take the big(ger) step forward and actually be a contender.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Ron Rivera after playoff elimination: "This offseason is going to be very important, very vital to what I see is the plan...It's time we see this team take that big step forward."

 

Ron Rivera: "Going into the 3rd year I like to think weve taken the big steps." Adds Washington needs to make moves this offseason in free agency and draft

 

I’m reading that as somewhat conflicting, however I guess the upshot is that in the offseason we will be going all out to finally plug these major needs. Critical offseason, should be fun to watch unfold hopefully.

 

 

I've listened to the interviews.  I think the 2nd statement is just a bad grammer version of the first statement where I think he meant to say Going "through" the third year.  I've listened to him enough and heard enough beat guys talk about what they've heard to know they are thinking of being very aggressive this off season.  He's said he knows they need to take a leap.

 

[Est.1974]

14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I see it as he thinks this team has taken big steps but now it's time to take the big(ger) step forward and actually be a contender.

not the thread for it, but I wonder what he actually sees as the ‘big steps’...I feel like we somewhat stalled this year...

 

Anyway, back on the draft, i hope he really sees the the next stage as being QB and MLB in the draft. I’ll happily take a another year of lumps if we’ve added those pieces for the longer term.

[Koolblue13]

I think Ron's been hoping success would come to him naturally, but really **** the bed last year.

 

We needed (and still need unfortunately) a QB and MLB and he got cute about both positions. We should have gone after one of the QBs and not settled for a mid round LBer and we paid for it all year.

 

QB and MLB are not positions we can ignore this year and if they're the only two positions we upgrade and we're super aggressive and sell out to do it, so be it.

[Skinsinparadise]

19 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Agree. Against popular opinion, I also think we might trade up in the draft to get our QB. I could see a move into the top 5 range with the Jets....especially if we beat the Giants and land back at pick 11/12 say.

 

It could be.  I also think its relevant that the QBs aren't ballyhooed as sure things.  So I am betting the price might not be crazy to trade up there.  Will see.

[cakmoney61]

14 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

There's no reason to be concerned about that or filled with regret. Either we land the elite to top 10ish QB or we do not, other positions simply are irrelevant if you don't have a QB. The Ravens Model is historically nearly impossible to duplicate. Nearly every team that matters has an elite QB. There are exceptions, but they are rare, check through decade by decade to see who makes the final four consistently and it is always the same teams, teams with legit QB's, the only exception teams were the Ravens the last 20 years, and the Niners a decade ago, and the Bucs in the early aughts, but that method rarely has staying power, you saw the Bucs fall off pretty quickly, they had their short window and then it closed, and it's not a coindence that most of the time these teams sneak through, its because the elite QB's in the conference have retired, or the teams around the elite QB's fell apart. 

 

Get the QB, everything else is irrelevant other than the line to protect him. I get that you still try to build other aspects of your team, mind you, it's just if you don't have the QB, everything else other than the OL that will be needed to prevent the David Carr effect, won't move the needle substantially beyond typically either side of .500. 

 

Hopefully we find the QB this year, one can pray, we have a lot more pieces to give him than we had to give Shuler, or Frerotte or Ramsey or Campbell or RGIII or Haskins, so at least there's that. 

 

There's no reason to have pangs for guys like Hamilton, or Chase Young for that matter, we were reminded for the billonth time how little it matters to have elite ALL PRO talent on a DL if your QB is 32nd in the league. You just don't matter, period. The old Gibbs model does not work, the league has simply changed way too much, and is built far more for the QB than it ever was, especially during Gibbs I. 

You are absolutely right about the need for a good to great QB to have any chance of being a consistent winner.  But do you believe there are QBs in the upcoming draft that can be "the guy" in Washington for multiple years?  This is not last year's crop of QBs.  Can we not find that guy in the second round?  I would hate to miss out on a Kyle Hamilton because we reached for a mediocre QB.