2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Peregrine]

2 hours ago, Zim489 said:

Well Ron cant afford to ignore the position any longer. Its why so many were so pressed with drafting a guy last year. You move heaven and earth to get one of the top 4. Especially when you look ahead to next year (the 2022 class) and see a vast wilderness of nothingness.

 

Ron painted himself into this corner and it will likely end up being his downfall

I certainly think you have to get one this year, the plan last year was to have the vet in Fitz and see if TH could claim the job.  The problem with drafting a QB now is hes not going to be ready to lead you to the playoffs in his rookie year.  Thats way too much pressure unless your D is lights out, which ours wasnt.  You still need to bring in a good vet, an upgrade on Fitz even if you draft a guy.  Honestly, after looking at the available QBs, I would sign a FA or a cheap trade for a good vet QB, and then draft a QB in the 2nd round depending on whos available.  I dont think theres going to be someone at #11 whos worth it, but if Willis doesnt fall to the 2nd, I actually would be very okay with taking Carson Strong on the 2nd day.  His main knock is hes not mobile ala Brady, but he is the most Brady-esque QB in the draft, with a good arm and by far the best pocket presence and ability to progress through reads.  Plus, like all good college QBs that have success in the NFL he showed big progress each year he started and seemingly didnt plateau.

 

I think thats likely how Ron looks at it.  He needs someone ready to come in and start day 1, but he knows he likely needs to try and find a franchise QB in the draft.  But he doesnt like the options this draft and is only considering taking one in the 2nd or 3rd round.

[Zim489]

11 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

I certainly think you have to get one this year, the plan last year was to have the vet in Fitz and see if TH could claim the job.  The problem with drafting a QB now is hes not going to be ready to lead you to the playoffs in his rookie year.  Thats way too much pressure unless your D is lights out, which ours wasnt.  You still need to bring in a good vet, an upgrade on Fitz even if you draft a guy.  Honestly, after looking at the available QBs, I would sign a FA or a cheap trade for a good vet QB, and then draft a QB in the 2nd round depending on whos available.  I dont think theres going to be someone at #11 whos worth it, but if Willis doesnt fall to the 2nd, I actually would be very okay with taking Carson Strong on the 2nd day.  His main knock is hes not mobile ala Brady, but he is the most Brady-esque QB in the draft, with a good arm and by far the best pocket presence and ability to progress through reads.  Plus, like all good college QBs that have success in the NFL he showed big progress each year he started and seemingly didnt plateau.

 

I think thats likely how Ron looks at it.  He needs someone ready to come in and start day 1, but he knows he likely needs to try and find a franchise QB in the draft.  But he doesnt like the options this draft and is only considering taking one in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I personally dont see the day 2 picks as any sort of viable action. The hit rate is so abysmal that its like a total lottery ticket. 

[Peregrine]

5 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

I personally dont see the day 2 picks as any sort of viable action. The hit rate is so abysmal that its like a total lottery ticket. 

The hit rate on day 2 picks is actually much better considering the slot than 1st rounders that arent #1 overall.

 

Look at last years top 10 QBs by rating, you have 4 QBs #1 overall, you have 5 QBs that were taken 2nd or 3rd day.  The only QB that was taken in the 1st round but not first overall was Aaron Rodgers.  Basically, if you dont have the #1 overall pick, the only reason to draft a QB in the 1st is if you want a middle of the road starter(10-20), because you can get some top 10 NFL qbs in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

And in short, i'd let that script play out for Ron but considering it would feel like a reach to me, if it doesn't work, it would feel like a firable offense.  And the main reason wouldn't even be getting it wrong but instead it would be not taking the problem IMO seriously enough.  Having said that, I doubt they end up doing it this way. 

 

If it didn't work, then why not try again for a QB in 2023?  Why does this off-season have to be Ron's absolute last chance to get QB right?  This is the part I'm not understanding.  Signing Trubisky for cheap and spending a second on Ridder is not mortgaging the farm.  We'd have cap space and a full compliment of picks to go shopping again in '23.

 

We are already doing this thing in a completely unconventional way.  We hired the coach and let him hire two GMs his second year.  We empowered him to bench and then cut the owner's pick at QB immediately into his tenure.  We are going through the most turmoil at the executive and ownership level that any of us can ever remember, and it has effectively left Ron as the sole person minding the store.  I'm not sure he really even has a boss right now, and that there is anyone actively involved with the franchise who is empowered to fire him over anything short of misconduct.  My read is that Dan Snyder is in awe of Ron and that there is no way he'll fire him.  And even if he wanted to, I don't think he has the power to do it any time soon.

 

Ron has more freedom to tackle this QB issue than almost any other coach in the league.  He gets to be patient and fish for a while or pick long term projects.  He has built stability and competitiveness in this organization that we haven't had since Gibbs 2.  That is stuff that transcends questions about quarterback.  He's got blueblood program college coach level of power here and I think he's going to get years to figure this thing out, if he needs them.  Why would we throw this little bit of hard won stability away just for not finding the right QB this off-season?  We all know this is a tough draft class and our vet options are unrealistic.

[Zim489]

1 hour ago, Peregrine said:

The hit rate on day 2 picks is actually much better considering the slot than 1st rounders that arent #1 overall.

 

Look at last years top 10 QBs by rating, you have 4 QBs #1 overall, you have 5 QBs that were taken 2nd or 3rd day.  The only QB that was taken in the 1st round but not first overall was Aaron Rodgers.  Basically, if you dont have the #1 overall pick, the only reason to draft a QB in the 1st is if you want a middle of the road starter(10-20), because you can get some top 10 NFL qbs in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds.

This isnt true though. I dont know what kind of math your using but the hit rate is roughly 7% of day two guys. 

Maybe youre using the entire league QB history. QB drafting has significantly changed over the past 10-12 years with the rookie cap. Could even argue its significantly changed in the last 5. Dak is the last non first round QB to be a hit. Of the QBs drafted in the past 5-7 years who I consider the elite guys not drafted 1.1 only 1 has been taken in Burrow. 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Zim489

[Conn]

1 hour ago, Peregrine said:

The problem with drafting a QB now is hes not going to be ready to lead you to the playoffs in his rookie year.  Thats way too much pressure unless your D is lights out, which ours wasnt.  You still need to bring in a good vet, an upgrade on Fitz even if you draft a guy. 

I actually don’t think Rivera needs to make the playoffs to be fine here next season. I don’t think there’s any sort of mandate or even implication of that. But I say that with a caveat—If he doesn’t bring in an obvious playoff level vet QB, he at least needs to be seen developing a rookie QB. As long as that guy has pedigree and flashes and grows and isn’t a total disaster I think that’s all he needs. 
 

To lay it out more plainly, if he can’t bring winning to the building next season then he needs hope in the building to offset it. Period. 

Edited January 22, 2022 by ConnSKINS26

[Zim489]

1 minute ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I actually don’t think Rivera needs to make the playoffs to be fine here next season. I don’t think there’s any sort of mandate or even implication of that. But I say that with a caveat—If he doesn’t bring in an obvious playoff level vet QB, he at least needs to be seen developing a rookie QB. As long as that guy has pedigree and flashes and grows and isn’t a total disaster I think that’s all he needs. 

I 100% agree. If he drafts a QB next year is all about QB growth. The playoffs are irrelevant. Would be a nice cherry on top though. 2023 season would be all about that QB taking the next step. 2024 is when you want to start doing Damage in the playoffs competing for conference championships and SB appearances 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Zim489

[Conn]

Just now, Zim489 said:

I 100% agree. If he drafts a QB next year is all about QB growth. The playoffs are irrelevant. Would be a nice cherry on top though. 

Exactly. To emphasize what I went back and added to that last post—if he doesn’t bring winning back into the building next year, he at least has to bring hope.One or the other will let him keep his job and let him keep installing his guys and culture here. 

[KDawg]

53 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If it didn't work, then why not try again for a QB in 2023?  Why does this off-season have to be Ron's absolute last chance to get QB right?  This is the part I'm not understanding.  Signing Trubisky for cheap and spending a second on Ridder is not mortgaging the farm.  We'd have cap space and a full compliment of picks to go shopping again in '23.

 

We are already doing this thing in a completely unconventional way.  We hired the coach and let him hire two GMs his second year.  We empowered him to bench and then cut the owner's pick at QB immediately into his tenure.  We are going through the most turmoil at the executive and ownership level that any of us can ever remember, and it has effectively left Ron as the sole person minding the store.  I'm not sure he really even has a boss right now, and that there is anyone actively involved with the franchise who is empowered to fire him over anything short of misconduct.  My read is that Dan Snyder is in awe of Ron and that there is no way he'll fire him.  And even if he wanted to, I don't think he has the power to do it any time soon.

 

Ron has more freedom to tackle this QB issue than almost any other coach in the league.  He gets to be patient and fish for a while or pick long term projects.  He has built stability and competitiveness in this organization that we haven't had since Gibbs 2.  That is stuff that transcends questions about quarterback.  He's got blueblood program college coach level of power here and I think he's going to get years to figure this thing out, if he needs them.  Why would we throw this little bit of hard won stability away just for not finding the right QB this off-season?  We all know this is a tough draft class and our vet options are unrealistic.

I think they really need to get a QB this year. Or at least appear to try. If it doesn’t work and they try no foul, try again in 23.

 

I agree on Ron’s job security. I don’t think he’s going anywhere. The only way I can see this team not bringing Rivera back in 23 is if we have a top 2 pick. That makes the job more attractive for head coach candidates who normally wouldn’t touch this franchise with a ten foot pole. If we’re middling again the job is much less attractive.

 

I don’t think we’ll have a top 2-5 pick next year. It’s rare we get to that point. Usually just out of that range.  

[Zim489]

Rons not going this year or next year. The issue is the 2024 season or year 5 when Ron is a lame duck. If he gets a QB and hes not good then how can you extend him? If he doesnt get a QB and were middling. How can you extend him? He wont coach on a lame duck contract. No one does. 

 

What I would hate to happen is him ignoring the position this year again or strike out just for him to scramble and oversell in the 2023 offseason before his 4th season and give up picks to make a massive swing just to miss and **** over the next regimes future making the search for the next guy more difficult because he is stuck with a bad looking QB and no picks to fix it. Its the same issue Jay had inheriting Mikes mess ups. 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Zim489

[Going Commando]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So in summary, can a QB with unprecedented small hands with fumbling issues, conquer that in the NFL?  his arm talent isn't special.  And i don't think his decision making is anything special.  

 

I think the hand size issue is a complete irrelevance.  For one thing, everyone could be wrong about his hand measurement.  But I also don't think anyone has come even close to adequately demonstrating a causal link between being able to play QB and passing some kind of threshold for thumb to pinky span measurement.  What it measures is not even relevant to how you grip a football.  You don't grip it between your pinky and thumb.  You grip mainly with your thumb and middle finger and use the index finger on the end for stability and final point of contact.  And you secure the ball with your off hand anyway.  Any QB who is hanging the ball out with one hand in a throwing grip while getting hit is going to get the ball stripped by an NFL defender, no matter if his thumb to pinky span is 10 inches or 8 inches.

 

Frankly, I think it's the kind of noisy, archaic scouting measurement that the NFL still performs out of ritual, and the de facto function of it is to create buy low candidates for the good GMs to take advantage of.  It's stuff like the hand span measurement red flag that will give us the opportunity to pick QB1 at 11 this year IMO.

 

I'm frustrated that no one seems to keep consistent stats on fumbling so we don't have the accurate figure for career fumbles for the prospects.  I've seen Pickett's number from 25 to 30 something.  But neither of those numbers give me pause.  He's a four year starter with something like 50 career starts.  Something like 7 fumbles per year feels normal for a guy playing in a spread with standard five man protections at a mid level power 5 school dropping back 40 times a game.

[Zim489]

If it was irrelevant they wouldnt test for it. And its not like he has little hands. He might have the smallest hands on record. 

[Thinking Skins]

 

[Stone Cold]

28 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Really growing on me the more I read.  Hard to discount what he did at Cincinnati.  Can’t wait til the senior bowl.  

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If it didn't work, then why not try again for a QB in 2023?  Why does this off-season have to be Ron's absolute last chance to get QB right?  This is the part I'm not understanding.  Signing Trubisky for cheap and spending a second on Ridder is not mortgaging the farm.  We'd have cap space and a full compliment of picks to go shopping again in '23.

 

 

For me context is king.  If they swing and miss at some big targets, that's a plus for me as to they tried.  But lets say they pass on a Qb in the first round and lets say one of those guys in the range of their first round pick ends up like a Herbert, I'd put that on them.  According to multiple reporters both local and national and Ron himself they've spent a lot of time on these QBs in this draft.

 

So if lets say for argument's sake Corral is taken in the mid first and looks great for someone else.  And Ridder for us, looks choppy at best.  If that happens...

 

As much as I love Ron, it would be tough for me say, atta boy Ron you guys evaluated that spot and got it royally wrong but no problem lets try this again next year, no harm no foul.  I'd be pissed for the first time at Ron if it goes down like that.

 

Also, my fear is both Trubisky and Ridder are such wildcards that what if the answer is sort of a purgatory existence where the thought is it was a bit of a roller coaste rwith these guys so lets try it again in 2023.    I follow the NY papers closely and that's been their drill with Daniel Jones, some in their FO keep pushing it and say well lets try this again.  They think he's not been great but they got glimpses, its too early to throw in the towel.

 

Once you make a pick its rare to dump said pick after one year, that's admitting defeat.  The Cards did it but it was an unusual context with them having the top pick in the draft.

 

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 My read is that Dan Snyder is in awe of Ron and that there is no way he'll fire him.  And even if he wanted to, I don't think he has the power to do it any time soon.

 

 

It could be.  Ron is IMO an impressive person.  Dan quite the opposite.

 

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

Ron has more freedom to tackle this QB issue than almost any other coach in the league.  He gets to be patient and fish for a while or pick long term projects.  He has built stability and competitiveness in this organization that we haven't had since Gibbs 2.  That is stuff that transcends questions about quarterback.  He's got blueblood program college coach level of power here and I think he's going to get years to figure this thing out, if he needs them.  Why would we throw this little bit of hard won stability away just for not finding the right QB this off-season?  We all know this is a tough draft class and our vet options are unrealistic.

 

As for it being a firable offense, I mean it more as an expression.  As I said I would hazard a guess that I've put more pro Ron propaganda on this board than anyone or at least top 3.  . I don't want Ron fired so let me clarify that in a big way. 

 

As for how Dan sees Ron and the world for that matter.  Hard to predict that.  By many people's accounts, he's an emotional high strung dude but if you have a good relationship and suck up to him enough you last there for a long time.  I don't know the nature of Ron's relationship with Dan.

 

I think fans are almost as frustrated at the years of ineptitutde of this organization at QB as they are with Dan.  The level of patience that fans have with if we circle through retreads and 2nd-third round picks might not be that high.   The team has the worst attendance as is in the NFL and their TV ratings are declining.

 

Lets say we run with Trubisky next year and he struggles, what we are going to draw like 30,000 fans?  I think they are in a pickle IMO. 

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

I am not surprised.   He's likely not a first round pick and he has some mobility.  Perfect combination?  He screams you.  😀

 

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[tomwvr]

6 hours ago, Zim489 said:

I personally dont see the day 2 picks as any sort of viable action. The hit rate is so abysmal that its like a total lottery ticket. 

The hit rate in the first round is not good either in the last 10 Years of the 30

plus first round qb picks 9 are above average 

[mistertim]

56 minutes ago, tomwvr said:

The hit rate in the first round is not good either in the last 10 Years of the 30

plus first round qb picks 9 are above average 

 

The hit rate for 1st round QBs is WAY better than QBs taken after the 1st. Orders of magnitude better.

[tomwvr]

29 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

The hit rate for 1st round QBs is WAY better than QBs taken after the 1st. Orders of magnitude better.

Yes it is but it’s still a crap shoot. And unless it’s the very first pick it’s much worse than the first pick of the first round

Edited January 23, 2022 by tomwvr

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, tomwvr said:

Yes it is but it’s still a crap shoot. And unless it’s the very first pick it’s much worse than the rest of the first round

 

That's like saying playing blackjack is as a big of a crapshoot as buying a lottery ticket. But it's not...one of them has mediocre odds, the other has astronimcal odds.

 

I really wish people would get off this kick of looking for franchise QBs outside of the 1st round. Finding those gems happens so rarely that it can essentially be ignored as a strategy.

 

You draft QBs outside of the 1st with the hope that they'll become good backups at least or maybe even passable starters if you're super lucky. If something insane happens and you find a gem who ends up being a star, then that's amazing. But absolutely zero teams actually bank on that...which is why they keep picking them high in the 1st round.

[tomwvr]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

That's like saying playing blackjack is as a big of a crapshoot as buying a lottery ticket. But it's not...one of them has mediocre odds, the other has astronimcal odds.

 

I really wish people would get off this kick of looking for franchise QBs outside of the 1st round. Finding those gems happens so rarely that it can essentially be ignored as a strategy.

 

You draft QBs outside of the 1st with the hope that they'll become good backups at least or maybe even passable starters if you're super lucky. If something insane happens and you find a gem who ends up being a star, then that's amazing. But absolutely zero teams actually bank on that...which is why they keep picking them high in the 1st round.

I’m not saying that at all. But I do think no qb in this draft is worth the pick we have and we should use it to fill one of the other major holes unless we use it in a trade.

 

and personally I think using it in a trade for a qb is a better play for the team

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, tomwvr said:

I’m not saying that at all. But I do think no qb in this draft is worth the pick we have and we should use it to fill one of the other major holes unless we use it in a trade.

 

and personally I think using it in a trade for a qb is a better play for the team

 

1) No hole matters much until you have a QB. Everyone in the modern NFL understands this these days. You can plug all the holes you want, but until you get a franchise QB you'll never be a perennial contender.

 

2) Sure, a trade for an elite QB would be great, but you have to have a trade partner for that and most teams are not going to part with top QBs. Outside of that, usually trading for a QB means you're getting another team's castoff, which basically never works. Who exactly are you hoping we trade for?

 

So the bottom line is we absolutely have to find our QB. No amount of MIKE backers, wide receivers, corners, or offensive linemen are going to change the fact that you have to have that QB to be a contender year in and year out. And if we strike out with this 1st round QB pick guess what...we try again and again until we hit.

[tomwvr]

5 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

1) No hole matters much until you have a QB. Everyone in the modern NFL understands this these days. You can plug all the holes you want, but until you get a franchise QB you'll never be a perennial contender.

 

2) Sure, a trade for an elite QB would be great, but you have to have a trade partner for that and most teams are not going to part with top QBs. Outside of that, usually trading for a QB means you're getting another team's castoff, which basically never works. Who exactly are you hoping we trade for?

 

So the bottom line is we absolutely have to find our QB. No amount of MIKE backers, wide receivers, corners, or offensive linemen are going to change the fact that you have to have that QB to be a contender year in and year out. And if we strike out with this 1st round QB pick guess what...we try again and again until we hit.

Sorry but I disagree, we have wasted so many first round picks in the last 10

years for qbs that unless the team feels that a qb available at 11 is the guy you don’t waste that pick.

 

unless we are going to be able to draft the first qb in the draft and get the one we want we must trade it for a top 10 qb.

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, tomwvr said:

Sorry but I disagree, we have wasted so many first round picks in the last 10

years for qbs that unless the team feels that a qb available at 11 is the guy you don’t waste that pick.

 

unless we are going to be able to draft the first qb in the draft and get the one we want we must trade it for a top 10 qb.

 

Trade with who? Who exactly is it you think we're going to trade for?

 

Also, this whole "well, it hasn't worked out for us in the past so we should stop trying" schtick is pure nonsense. It hasn't worked out for plenty of teams...until it did. Why? Because they kept trying.

 

If you swing and miss on a QB in the 1st you try again. And then try again. It doesn't matter how many other pieces you have in place. They're borderline irrelevant because until you get your franchise QB you're never going to be a perennial contender. Again, literally every single team in the NFL knows this nowadays.

[tomwvr]

13 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Trade with who? Who exactly is it you think we're going to trade for?

 

Also, this whole "well, it hasn't worked out for us in the past so we should stop trying" schtick is pure nonsense. It hasn't worked out for plenty of teams...until it did. Why? Because they kept trying.

 

If you swing and miss on a QB in the 1st you try again. And then try again. It doesn't matter how many other pieces you have in place. They're borderline irrelevant because until you get your franchise QB you're never going to be a perennial contender. Again, literally every single team in the NFL knows this nowadays.

I don’t have any confidence that they will pick the right guy.

I do think that they could pull off a trade for a top QB if they offer enough (two first and two starters)

 

and it does not work for many teams

Edited January 23, 2022 by tomwvr

[Zim489]

Keep Jimmy G Away from this team