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2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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9 hours ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

 Howell is great too, especially with the deep ball, but his pocket awareness bothers me, and his run style will not be something he can lean on like he does in college. 

 

I like Howell but yeah IMO his questionable pocket awareness/peripheral vision is what I stressed as a main reason why I prefer Corral.  Corral's mobility IMO translates to the NFL, Howell not nearly to the same extent.    Also i like Corral's ability to use body language and his eyes to manipulate safeties which is something i don't see in a big way from the other prospects -- I can see him being a really good play action QB in the pros.   Same thing I stressed about Mac Jones last off season. His size is my main pause.

 

As for Howell, love his arm talent.  Heck he can throw deep outs accurately even off of his back foot.    But IMO he's missing a few things that IMO Corral has.  But if they are just sitting at 11 and he's there and Corral is gone, i'd like the pick.

 

I've been compiling notes on Pickett.  I wonder about his arm talent.  I don't agree with the Burrow comp some use.  IMO he doesn't have Burrow's composure, pocket presence or laser accuracy.  If I had to pick one thing i dig about Pickett is his mechanics seem consistent and he throws really well on the move.  He readjusts his feet well on the move and his feet and upper body seem to be in synch.  His pocket presence is pretty good from the context of dodging pressure but he at times makes some frenetic really ill advised YOLO throws -- for example, he was lucky he didn't have 5 picks in that North Carolina game. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like Howell but yeah IMO his questionable pocket awareness/peripheral vision is what I stressed as a main reason why I prefer Corral.  Corral's mobility IMO translates to the NFL, Howell not nearly to the same extent.    Also i like Corral's ability to use body language and his eyes to manipulate safeties which is something i don't see in a big way from the other prospects -- I can see him being a really good play action QB in the pros.   Same thing I stressed about Mac Jones last off season. His size is my main pause.

 

As for Howell, love his arm talent.  Heck he can throw deep outs accurately even off of his back foot.    But IMO he's missing a few things that IMO Corral has.  But if they are just sitting at 11 and he's there and Corral is gone, i'd like the pick.

 

I've been compiling notes on Pickett.  I wonder about his arm talent.  I don't agree with the Burrow comp some use.  IMO he doesn't have Burrow's composure, pocket presence or laser accuracy.  If I had to pick one thing i dig about Pickett is his mechanics seem consistent and he throws really well on the move.  He readjusts his feet well on the move and his feet and upper body seem to be in synch.  His pocket presence is pretty good from the context of dodging pressure but he at times makes some frenetic really ill advised YOLO throws -- for example, he was lucky he didn't have 5 picks in that North Carolina game. 

 

Herein lies the rub with all of these guys. Howell is sturdy, has a hell of a deep ball, can play mobile but holds the ball too long at times and picks bad escape lanes.

 

Willis has a strong arm, elite athleticism, but holds the ball way too long as he runs around seemingly after his first read a good portion of the time.

 

Corral has the best awareness and escapability and a great arm but he is built fairly fragile and tries to run like he's 40 pounds heavier.

 

Pickett has tiny hands and is similar to Howell in the pocket but avoids interior pressure a bit better.

 

Quite the conundrum with this class. 

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Ive never spent any time evaluating college QBs. And I just watched the Willis highlight video earlier in this thread.

 

He definitely has a strong arm. Fit some deep passes tight windows.

 

And he’s fast… but it’s straight-line speed like RG3. He’s not elusive (like Lamar)… he just beats you to the edge.

 

Which means he’s going to take his pops… which he did in college. Guys did get their hands on him at times…. but he escaped jersey pulls. Not sure he’s going to be able to do that consistently in the NFL. At least not with getting hurt.

 

He’s got some intriguing tools to work with. But he’ll need a good coach to develop him.

 

He doesn’t excite me as is though. Right now, he’s Jalen Hurts.

Edited by Die Hard
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1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

Herein lies the rub with all of these guys. Howell is sturdy, has a hell of a deep ball, can play mobile but holds the ball too long at times and picks bad escape lanes.

 

Willis has a strong arm, elite athleticism, but holds the ball way too long as he runs around seemingly after his first read a good portion of the time.

 

Corral has the best awareness and escapability and a great arm but he is built fairly fragile and tries to run like he's 40 pounds heavier.

 

Pickett has tiny hands and is similar to Howell in the pocket but avoids interior pressure a bit better.

 

Quite the conundrum with this class. 

 

Which is why I actually like this class. I mean the chance that the one that turns out the best is available at 11 is pretty high, because they all have their pros and cons. Now are we able to find that guy? And will the best guy from that class still be nothing special? Who knows. But it feels like it's a crap shot either way. Last year's class was "special" - turns out the highest 4 QBs picked all struggled tremendously. In other years we had Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Lamar Jackson being picked outside the top 5 - all with major question marks (for different reasons) - and now being among the league's elite QBs. Or in 2018 when everyone was saying the WR class is nothing special and it in retrospect it might be the best in quite some time (Terry, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Deiontae Johnson, Hunter Refrow, Hollywood Brown).

Sure, a lot is survivorship bias and for every Watson or Mahomes you'll have a Haskins or Jones. However, it feels like the last couple of years, more really good QBs were picked outside the top 5 than inside the Top 5. To me it seems like the QB profile has changed a bit and teams are not entirely sure yet how to evaluare how some of these "new" required traits (mobility, off-plattform throws, RPO-ability etc.) translate to the NFL. Point is: You just never know and this is why I like this class. Ultimately, we'll probably pick the worst of all of them and see other teams succeed with a player we should have taken cause that's just the way it is as a Washington fan - but we got to at least try it this year.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Die Hard said:

Ive never spent any time evaluating college QBs. And I just watched the Willis highlight video earlier in this thread.

 

He definitely has a strong arm. Fit some deep passes tight windows.

 

And he’s fast… but it’s straight-line speed like RG3. He’s not elusive (like Lamar)… he just beats you to the edge.

 

Which means he’s going to take his pops… which he did in college. Guys did get their hands on him at times…. but he escaped jersey pulls. Not sure he’s going to be able to do that consistently in the NFL. At least not with getting hurt.

 

He’s got some intriguing tools to work with. But he’ll need a good coach to develop him.

 

He doesn’t excite me as is though. Right now, he’s Jalen Hurts.

He looks like a Jalen Hurts, but against inferior competition. His upside is as a poor man’s Michael Vick IMO, but most likely I think he’s a bust. Any team that forks over a bunch of picks to move up in the draft for him will likely regret it. 

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Willis seems like the kind of draft pick that a well run franchise with an entrenched coaching staff could possibly develop.....and one that would get a coaching staff fired if drafted high by a lesser franchise.

Given my viewpoint, I loathe the idea of this team drafting him....while not really being down on him as a prospect.

Edited by SpacePenguin
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1 hour ago, Die Hard said:

And he’s fast… but it’s straight-line speed like RG3. He’s not elusive (like Lamar)… he just beats you to the edge.

 

He's one of the most elusive runners at the position I've ever seen, and his elusiveness is his most spectacular trait on display in his cut ups and highlights.  It's quantifiable too, as I'm pretty sure he set the PFF record for breaking the most tackles as a QB over the past two years.  The difference between him and Lamar or Fields is that he's a power runner, not just someone who sprints to the edge.  He likes to run up the middle like a back and he can string together moves to beat multiple layers of the defense like a back.  Plus his arm is about twice as strong as Lamar's and Fields's, he will be one of the hardest throwers in the NFL.  He's in the Mahomes and Allen God tier of arm strength.

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7 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

He's one of the most elusive runners at the position I've ever seen, and his elusiveness is his most spectacular trait on display in his cut ups and highlights.  It's quantifiable too, as I'm pretty sure he set the PFF record for breaking the most tackles as a QB over the past two years.  The difference between him and Lamar or Fields is that he's a power runner, not just someone who sprints to the edge.  He likes to run up the middle like a back and he can string together moves to beat multiple layers of the defense like a back.  Plus his arm is about twice as strong as Lamar's and Fields's, he will be one of the hardest throwers in the NFL.  He's in the Mahomes and Allen God tier of arm strength.

 

I don't want my QB breaking tackles 🙂 And if he's needing to break so many tackles against inferior competition.... I'm not sure that's going to translate well in the NFL.

 

Also, I don't want a power running style from my QB.

 

And his straight line speed is insane... and he gets there fast.

 

Some of those impressive runs were also great design, great calls and great execution.

 

You're right though.... he looks like a RB playing QB.

 

I understand about his arm. Elite arm is a luxury... not a necessity.

 

I just don't see enough.

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16 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

He's one of the most elusive runners at the position I've ever seen, and his elusiveness is his most spectacular trait on display in his cut ups and highlights.  It's quantifiable too, as I'm pretty sure he set the PFF record for breaking the most tackles as a QB over the past two years.  The difference between him and Lamar or Fields is that he's a power runner, not just someone who sprints to the edge.  He likes to run up the middle like a back and he can string together moves to beat multiple layers of the defense like a back.  Plus his arm is about twice as strong as Lamar's and Fields's, he will be one of the hardest throwers in the NFL.  He's in the Mahomes and Allen God tier of arm strength.

 

The power runner thing is a detriment to him. He's in a better place to do it than Corral as he weighs 25 pounds more. But he's only 215. Quarterbacks running through tackles in the regular season is not something I want to see. I'm on the fence with this guy still. If he's there at 11, like others, I wouldn't be opposed.

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6 minutes ago, thelongestbreath said:

Doing a bit of evaluation with this qb class I'm starting to think if the medicals check out Strong very well may be the best qb out of this class, I'd then place Matt Corral second.

 

I still can't rank the top prospects yet with any confidence. As of now, in terms of the totality of overall positive traits, I am leaning towards Pickett - size, mobility, arm etc. 

 

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Just now, Chump Bailey said:

 

I still can't rank the top prospects yet with any confidence. As of now, in terms of the totality of overall positive traits, I am leaning towards Pickett - size, mobility, arm etc. 

 

Picket and Howell are 3a 3b for me, they're the only two I'm not sure how I want to rank right now:

 

Top 5 For Me**

1. Carson Strong

2. Matt Corral

3. Kenny Pickett 3. Sam Howell

5. Malik Willis

 

**Disclaimer: This is all subject to change for me based on Senior Bowl, Combine, and Pro Days

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On 1/13/2022 at 3:23 PM, Mooka said:

@Monk4thaHALL still posting? 

 

One of the few out there that was really high on Herbert in 2020. 

Was anyone down on him? The story of Herbert going into the season was he was going 4-8 in that class after Tua. The seasons story was Burrow had the best college QB season ever, Tua had a catastrophic injury (that he was cleared on a few weeks before the draft) and that Herbert didn’t improve or hurt his stock much, just had one persistent critique from the tape grinders.


Whoever saw Herbert being THIS good props to you, I don’t think anybody saw that, but he always had a 50/50 chance of being a franchise guy and he’s basically hit a grand slam on his upside like Mahomes, Watson, Allen and Burrow.

On 1/13/2022 at 4:06 PM, clskinsfan said:

This season. It is nowhere near Picketts. And that is part of the rub on Howell. He was hyped to be this Heismann level QB and he was nowhere close to it. 

Why doesn’t Pickett being utterly anonymous until now matter? In fairness Burrow had a similar non-description cv till his final year, but guys w/that crappy record till they were seniors is usually a Vegas sized STAY AWAY sign for prospects in any sport.

 

Howell lost a top 3 and top 8 rb in last years class and two drafted WRs snd was still solid to good. I have 10x as much Concern w/Picketts career, as I do w/Howell’s final season.

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On 1/13/2022 at 4:12 PM, KDawg said:


So we’re going to judge a guy on a single season worth of statistics where literally all of his weapons left for the NFL and he still managed to put up good stats and get a 1300 yard receiver?

 

Believe it or not, PITT has some serious weapons around Pickett. 
 

Howell has had a much better career than Pickett and it’s not even remotely close. 
 

I like Pickett. Not as much as Howell. And he has more questions about going to the next level in my eyes.

 

If you wanted to say Howell seems like he’s just going to be steady Eddie and never really push the envelope as a big time QB I’d be open to that argument. It’s a floor that I feel could be his downfall. 


Letting a single season, while ignoring context, effect your opinion on a prospect is a mistake in my opinion. 
 

But to each their own.

 

You’re making points I didn’t make.

 

He made throws into tight windows (into double coverage) that are balls that are interceptions in the NFL. His arm is solid. If he can throw the larger ball he has a bright future.

+1.

 

I don’t have Pickett in my top 3 and I think it’s crazy to ignore how irrelevant he was till ‘21, and how Howell got it from day 1 as a teen. I never understand the attraction to prospects that needed to be overage to be competent or better. I like the guys that smash as 18-20 year olds (20 at worst) because that means they have elite talent typically to overcome the issues of youth and inexperience.

 

Again, maybe Pickett just took time to make the leap a la Burrow,  maybe, but if you do lean that way, caution and prudence would naturally drop his ranking to 3-5 but it doesn’t seem to for some.

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On 1/16/2022 at 8:14 AM, mhd24 said:

 

Miami traded one future 1st to move from 12 to 6.  That'll be the cost if we really want our QB.  We could always gamble (I figure at least one of Pickett, Corral, Willis, and Howell is there at 11)

And I would say hell no to that. Last years class combined w/this years weakness totally justified such a move this years is the opposite (especially when considering the strength of the ‘23 class). It would be SO REDSKINS/WFT to refuse to throw away future assets for legit QB prospects only to do it a year later for an inferior classes prospects while using future assets of far higher value than the ‘22 picks we held so tightly too last spring.

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2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

And I would say hell no to that. Last years class combined w/this years weakness totally justified such a move this years is the opposite (especially when considering the strength of the ‘23 class). It would be SO REDSKINS/WFT to refuse to throw away future assets for legit QB prospects only to do it a year later for an inferior classes prospects while using future assets of far higher value than the ‘22 picks we held so tightly too last spring.


The right choice is the hardest choice. 
 

Which is to punt the QB position another year…. fill in more holes…. take another step forward. And then go all out in ‘23.

 

but Rivera has backed himself into a corner with the media about the QB position. 
 

And there’s always the context of job security. Can Rivera survive another non-playoff year? Does he feel like he has to go all in?

 

But if he transitions into the FO…. the plan can still proceed.

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7 hours ago, SpacePenguin said:

Willis seems like the kind of draft pick that a well run franchise with an entrenched coaching staff could possibly develop.....and one that would get a coaching staff fired if drafted high by a lesser franchise.

Given my viewpoint, I loathe the idea of this team drafting him....while not really being down on him as a prospect.

If he busts than we fire everyone and start over. Preferably with a more traditional organizational structure where a new president/GM hires a HC.

 

The worst thing that could happen is we draft a guy and he becomes Jimmy G. 

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7 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

The power runner thing is a detriment to him. He's in a better place to do it than Corral as he weighs 25 pounds more. But he's only 215. Quarterbacks running through tackles in the regular season is not something I want to see. I'm on the fence with this guy still. If he's there at 11, like others, I wouldn't be opposed.

 

I read that he was like 230.  He looks like a linebacker out there and I could believe 230.

 

I take your point about injury given he's on the short side for a QB, but he's thick and powerful.  And I wouldn't call having that tool in his box a detriment.  It's something you want to be available to him because sometimes the play that needs to be made is running through the middle of the field.

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I'd be ok with Howell, corral, or pickett (maybe ridder) at 11, but Malik Willis scares me.  He is a great runner and has a cannon, and teams will fall in love with that, but if this profile is accurate identifying weaknesses with accuracy, mechanics, decision making, etc, I'd pass.  I just think the odds of such a raw prospect improving in all those areas to be a franchise QB are too much to expect.  

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/malik-willis-liberty-qb-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2022/

 

 

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1 hour ago, Die Hard said:


The right choice is the hardest choice. 
 

Which is to punt the QB position another year…. fill in more holes…. take another step forward. And then go all out in ‘23.

 

but Rivera has backed himself into a corner with the media about the QB position. 
 

And there’s always the context of job security. Can Rivera survive another non-playoff year? Does he feel like he has to go all in?

 

But if he transitions into the FO…. the plan can still proceed.

 

There's going to be a good starting QB (or perhaps more than one) coming out of this draft class, and we're in a position to get him given our cap space and draft position.  It needs to be us that gets him.  We just have to get this right.

 

If we punt on QB, then the only way I could accept that is if we get stone cold All Pros with our first two picks.  If we come away with another Jamin Davis pick, then it'd be house-cleaning time because our FO would be clowns.

 

But I do take your point about not settling for a weak prospect just to have one.  I don't want the Jamin Davis of QB prospects either.  If I were our GM, I'd just pick Willis if he's there because I don't feel like I'd be settling with him.  I'd also take Ridder in the second if he's still there.  But if they're gone, and I'm scared the other guys are going to get me fired, or that I need a playoff season in 2022 or else I'm getting fired, I'm picking the starriest college players I can get and hoping that the organization will forgive me for passing on QB with a draft haul of studs.

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26 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I read that he was like 230.  He looks like a linebacker out there and I could believe 230.

 

I take your point about injury given he's on the short side for a QB, but he's thick and powerful.  And I wouldn't call having that tool in his box a detriment.  It's something you want to be available to him because sometimes the play that needs to be made is running through the middle of the field.

It’s a detriment because he uses it too often. Not because he possesses it.

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PFF's mock.  This is the first mock where I've seen Howell go thus high.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2022-nfl-mock-draft-denver-broncos-select-first-quarterback-sam-howell-north-carolina

PICK NO. 9: DENVER BRONCOS: QB SAM HOWELL, UNC

Howell watched his top receivers and top running backs go onto the NFL while he stayed back at Chapel Hill, and he still managed to earn a 90.0 PFF grade in 2021. The drop-off in talent with his supporting cast took a baseball bat to UNC’s chances in the ACC, but Howell still showed out as one of college football’s top signal-callers. He has a rocket arm with plus mobility for the position, enough for Denver to pull the trigger on his talents at No. 9 overall.

 

 

PICK NO. 11: WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: QB MATT CORRAL, OLE MISS

Washington needs to get aggressive when it comes to upgrading the quarterback position. The Taylor Heinicke experiment has run its course following a 2021 campaign that resulted in a bottom-five finish in PFF grade. 

Ole Miss’ Matt Corral will be in the conversation for top quarterback in the 2022 class after wrapping up his Rebels career with back-to-back 85.0-plus PFF grades (2020 and 2021). 

 

 

PICK NO. 18: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: QB DESMOND RIDDER, CINCINNATI

In an interview on Tailgate last week, analyst Nate Tice made his case for why Cincinnati signal-caller Desmond Ridder should be the first quarterback taken in April’s draft. Ridder turned in a career year in the Bearcats’ playoff run in 2021, finishing the season with a 90.7 PFF grade. He had never cleared 80.0 in any season prior. 

The 6-foot-4, 215-pounder possesses excellent mobility and above-average arm talent for the position, but he is coveted for much more beyond his physical tools. He’s proven to be a quick processor with experience operating an offense while consistently working through his progressions, rarely relying on just his first read.

 

 

PICK NO. 20: PITTSBURGH STEELERS: QB KENNY PICKETT, PITTSBURGH 

A consistent knock on Pickett will be that he’s a fifth-year senior and one of the older quarterback prospects in the 2022 class, but that shouldn’t keep him from being a top-20 pick in April’s draft. A finalist for the Heisman Trophy, Pickett completed 334-of-499 attempts for 4,308 yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season. He earned a career-high 92.3 PFF grade that ranked top-five among all quarterbacks in 2021. His PFF passing grade from a clean pocket was also among the best in all of college football at 94.3.

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I am still sniffing out Willis, i want to watch the Senior Bowl more as to watching him than any other player.  I am definitely not in the group here who is out on him.  I am much closer to @stevemcqueen1's take on him.   That dude is IMO the only QB in this class with freakish talent.  But i am still digesting. 

 

 

 

2022 NFL Draft: Malik Willis is the No. 1 quarterback, and Josh Allen is a big reason why

The Liberty QB has uncoachable attributes that could lead to superstardom in the NFL

Allen has become football's most shining embodiment of a superstar derived from raw abilities, the template for how to cultivate development at the game's most vital position. 

And quarterback-needy teams should see plenty of Allen in Willis. No, he's not as big. He doesn't quite have Allen's arm. But parallels between the two are there, critical ones. 

Willis has game-altering arm talent, and he's a dynamic, powerful runner with the football in his hands. His decision-making is questionable at times. He played at a smaller school. His auditions against Power 5 schools were duds. All very Allen-like.   

As for his accuracy, I liken it to the perception regarding Allen's ball placement during his pre-draft process in 2018. People watched the Wyoming contests against Iowa and Oregon, saw some turnovers, sacks, interceptions, and other misfires and pegged him as "woefully inaccurate." 

Four years ago, my first at CBS Sports, Allen as a draft prospect was polarizing at best and a laughing stock at worst. 

I was assigned a reactionary piece to Allen's pro day workout. I wrote this as a side note:

It does seem as though we've gotten to the point where Allen has become entirely too polarizing, and the criticism of his game has spiraled out of control. 

Against Iowa and Oregon in 2017, Allen tried to do way too much too often to compensate for the large discrepancy in talent between both clubs. He looked undraftable in those contests. The rest of his film -- in games other clubs from the Mountain West and other small-school opponents -- isn't downright brutal. The accuracy issues pop up on occasion, and he wasn't a natural pocket drifter, and did make a few poor decisions. However, Allen did show he was capable of zipping throws with fine ball-placement at all levels of the field in 2017.

The fact was, in contests in which Wyoming had talent close to its opponent, Allen was mostly good and at times spectacular. That's precisely how I felt watching Willis' outings against Troy, Old Dominion, Syracuse, UAB, and Eastern Michigan. 

From an analytics perspective, Allen is an outlier. In NFL history, quarterback prospects with a career 56.2% completion rate in college have not and typically do not become surgical with their accuracy once they're professionals. And he has absolutely sharpened his ball placement. But Allen was not nearly as inaccurate as the draft echo chamber made everyone believe. The same is true for Willis. 

Why Willis is similar to Allen

The Liberty quarterback has already been dubbed as the "athletic, strong-armed quarterback who can't hit the broadside of the barn when throwing the football" in this draft class.

Forever, it's been universally accepted that quarterbacks cannot get more accurate once they reach the NFL. Their decision-making and pocket presence are what they are once they're drafted. I still mostly believe that. But in watching Allen's maturation to becoming one of the NFL's elite, I've come to a crucial realization related to this ideology. 

Quarterbacks rarely fine-tune the intricacies of their game once they start facing NFL competition, but they damn sure aren't going to get more athletic and strengthen their arm to heroic heights once they're getting paid to play football. The physical attributes genuinely cannot be taught nor should they be expected to develop in the NFL.  

And one needs special tools to hang with the game's top dogs at the position. Can a team win without a supremely gifted, do-everything quarterback? Of course. But it's going to be much more of a challenge. For nearly two decades now, many have been chasing the next Tom Brady, a stoic, laser-accurate passer with genius-level processing and lightning quick reactionary capabilities. Don't forget, Brady's an outlier too. 

Just like Allen, Willis has the unteachable physical characteristics to hang today. In April 2018, Buffalo's front office bet on itself by going rogue, picking the physical marvel with rough edges, then did everything imaginable to foster his growth.

Allen worked on his mechanics in the process. And Saturday night's performance in Orchard Park was the culmination of the rewards that are possible when your quarterback can outrun linebackers and fire receiver-seeking missiles all over the field. 

Willis can do those things. Assuming he's willing to attempt to better his skills once he reaches the NFL, the majority of the onus will be on the team that drafts him to make the necessary moves to get the absolute most out of him, just like the Bills have done with Allen.  

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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