2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Chump Bailey]

3 hours ago, wilco_holland said:

 

Wait are college footballs a different size? 

 

I did not know that either. 

[DWinzit]

10 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

I can't comment much on the previous years draft classes but the thing that stood out to me about last year's class was the experience factor. Measurables and all that stuff aside, there was only one QB from the first round who had thrown more than 1000 balls in college (Lawrence). 

Theres no correlation between snaps in college and success but I have been comparing it to Parcells's rule for drafting a QB, one being needing to be a 3 year starter. We're not seeing that as much any more but I'm seeing some carryover in terms of this attempts metric. 

While no true correlation with snaps and pass attempts in college, this years crop does have significant experience compared to last years. 

Pass attempts:

Corral-1912

Howell-1117

Willis-618

Pickett-1674

Ridder-1304

Strong-1253

 

Zappe-1897

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

11 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Pickett is my number one. And has been since about week 4 of the College season. I am however interested to see how he handles an NFL ball. It is only 1/2 an inch wider. But his hands are small for a QB. But so were Vicks, Romo's and a few other great QB's. If it effects his accuracy my thoughts could change. We will get a feel for how he throws it at the Senior Bowl though. 

 

Romo's were average.  The place citing the small hand size had a typo.  Other sources had a larger hand size, something around 9.6 or 9.7 inches.

[HigSkin]

5 hours ago, wilco_holland said:

 

Wait are college footballs a different size? 

 

 

https://bigboardscouting.com/qa/quick-answer-are-nfl-footballs-bigger-than-college.html

 

Is NFL football bigger than college football?

An NFL football will measure 11″ long with a 22″ circumference at the midway point. … A college ball (D1) will be just slightly smaller (1/2″ in length and 1″ circumference). While the NFL ball is only slightly larger, it still seems to play a part in the drafting of QBs.

[Skinsinparadise]

Mental toughness.  Gibbs highlights the same thing as a key character trait.  It's part of the reason why I think Corral and Howell might stand out to Rivera.  Pile on to that they came from military family background just like Rivera.

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

His hands are so so little. 

[KDawg]

11 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Pickett is my number one. And has been since about week 4 of the College season. I am however interested to see how he handles an NFL ball. It is only 1/2 an inch wider. But his hands are small for a QB. But so were Vicks, Romo's and a few other great QB's. If it effects his accuracy my thoughts could change. We will get a feel for how he throws it at the Senior Bowl though. 

 

Their hands were not as small as Pickett's reported hand size.

 

We'll find out soon on the hand size/ability to throw the larger ball.

[Going Commando]

Been a lot of smoke that Cleveland is going to move on from Baker Mayfield.  He's a more interesting reclamation project to me than Trubisky.  The shoulder injury is his non throwing shoulder so you wouldn't think it'd be something that could permanently ruin his career.  This off-season could be buy low time for him.

[Skinsinparadise]

Part of the reason why I think some of these Qbs will fall is because there are major reasons to talk yourself out of all of these guys.  So IMO it puts some serious pressure on scouts.  And some teams are gun shy about getting it wrong because it can cost people jobs.  I was listening to a Giant beat guy on 106.7 yesterday and he goes the Giants will very likely explore the trade market, especially Russell Wilson but suggested if they fail they will unlikely take a Qb in the draft based on what he heard.

 

All these guys fall in what I call the Mac Jones bucket where you can talk yourself into him or talk tyourself out of them depending on what you focus on.  Not that other QBs that are ballyhooed don't have flaws but some of them feel safer or have more tantalizing upside. 

 

Matt Corral -- concerns IMO about his size-duability and the style of offense he played it

 

Sam Howell -- numbers not as good his last year, pocket presence?

 

Kenny Pickett:  One year college wonder -- ala Matt Barkley?  small hands.  With some exceptions, competition mostly wasn't tough.

 

Malik Willis:  Decision making?  Accuracy?  Level of competiton

 

Desmond Ridder:  Accuracy issues?  Decision making.  Consistency?

 

Zappe:  Level of competion, does he have any elite traits?

 

Carson Strong:  injury history, mobility?

 

On all these guys, you got to take a risk.  The reason why I am not as down on this group the way some others are is we typically are shopping in this aisle not the top 2 QBs, etc or where we have a shot at the elite supposedly can't miss guy or two. 

 

And typically there are 2-3 B level guys like this.  IMO there are more B level prospects to shop from in this draft than typically.  It's not that I don't think a B prospect can turn into an A, I think indeed that can happen -- just saying it takes more projection to figure that out.    Forgot which media draft guy spelled out this same thing on a WFT meda guy podcast weeks back but he articulated it well which is there could be a guy or two from this class who really excels, it just takes a bit more imagination and luck to figure out who those guys are.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Their hands were not as small as Pickett's reported hand size.

 

We'll find out soon on the hand size/ability to throw the larger ball.

 

I doubt it will.  The difference in size is very marginal.  You feel it a little bit at the ends of the ball, but anyone who can comfortably handle the college ball should be able to handle the NFL ball.

 

Another thing, what they are actually measuring with hand size is the span of the thumb tip to the pinky tip when you splay the hand out.  That is a measure of pinky flexibility as much as anything else.  I measured my hands the way the NFL does out of curiosity after this debate first started springing up, and was surprised to learn that my left hand was larger even though I am right handed.  Then I realized it was probably from growing up playing guitar and developing more flexibility with my fretting hand.  You don't grip a football with your pinky splayed out wide.  The issue could be as irrelevant as Pickett just not having good pinky finger flexibility due to any number of reasons which have no bearing on his quarterbacking.

 

The hand size debate we have about QB prospects, especially ones with small hands, feels way overblown.  Some of the flak he's getting for his hands feels like an attempt to write off Pickett with a purity test despite him playing better than the other QB prospects this season.  At the very most, it's a small piece of the total physical traits puzzle that you have to evaluate in addition to the mental part.  At the least, it's a measurement as relevant as the guy's shoe size.  I don't think it should disqualify any prospect.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I doubt it will.  The difference in size is very marginal.  You feel it a little bit at the ends of the ball, but anyone who can comfortably handle the college ball should be able to handle the NFL ball.

 

 

I disagree. Ball size changes mechanics if your hands are just large enough to handle a smaller football. I've seen it happen in real life.

 

Will that be the case for Pickett? I'm not sure. But I'm not judging him either way until I see him throw the NFL ball. 

[Thinking Skins]

9 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Burrow had 9 inch hands and Mahomes 9.25. Pickett's hand is reportedly 8.25 inches...a full inch smaller than Mahomes and almost an inch smaller than Burrow. Pickett doesn't just have somewhat small hands for an NFL QB...he has historically tiny ones.

 

Again, I'm not going to let that one thing dissuade me from him, but it's obviously enough of an issue already that he reportedly wears 2 gloves on his throwing hand. The NFL ball is even bigger so I really wonder how he'll look throwing it and if it will be an issue for him. We'll also find out if his reported hand size is accurate.

REally? I have been hearing 9-ish. If we're talking 8 range thats different. But I think we should wait til the combine for measurements on this. Like I said, I'm not in love with his game right now because he was a late bloomer and even then didn't bloom into an elite, just above average. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I feel like I'm an abberation.  Normal hand size, but I could grip an NFL ball better than a college ball.  Until this thread I thought the college ball had the larger circumference.  Not sure what the deal was then.

 

I'm starting to watch some of the QB's.  Is Howell's windup into the throw just a little awkward?

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

While no true correlation with snaps and pass attempts in college, this years crop does have significant experience compared to last years. 

Pass attempts:

Corral-1912

Howell-1117

Willis-618

Pickett-1674

Ridder-1304

Strong-1253

 

Zappe-1897

 

 

Exactly. So I think that more of these guys will be able to come in and play and look like a QB with a decent floor. They may not have the ceilings of some of last years guys but the fact that there is more tape, they've seen more defenses, they've worked on mechanics more, thrown a lot of routes more, checked down more, etc. I think they have higher floors in general. I'm still in love with Howell and Corral above the rest. I think my second tier is Ridder. Then Willis and maybe Strong after that. I don't know how I feel about Pickett, but I don't think he'll be there anyway. 

[Thinking Skins]

45 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

And typically there are 2-3 B level guys like this.  IMO there are more B level prospects to shop from in this draft than typically.  It's not that I don't think a B prospect can turn into an A, I think indeed that can happen -- just saying it takes more projection to figure that out.    Forgot which media draft guy spelled out this same thing on a WFT meda guy podcast weeks back but he articulated it well which is there could be a guy or two from this class who really excels, it just takes a bit more imagination and luck to figure out who those guys are.

I completely agree with this. I think our conversation is normally about first round vs lower round, whereas I like this way of putting it. If we look at Mac Jones, I still don't think he's an A level QB. I didn't last year going into the draft and I don't after his rookie year. He's playing much like I wanted Haskins to play. But I think he has the GOAT of head coaches who is bringing him along properly and he has the smarts and willingness to work on his weaknesses so that in 2 or 3 years we may see a development in him similar to Dak Prescott in his miracle rookie season (very similar numbers) but without the running ability. 

 

That said I think that if Ron can develop whoever we draft, and protect them from what Heinicke called trying to make a 14 point play, then we can have decent QB play from a rookie in this class. What scares me about some of these guys is that a guy like Fromm was also considered a B level talent and he's looked horrible. Is it a NY thing or were we just wrong?

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I doubt it will.  The difference in size is very marginal.  You feel it a little bit at the ends of the ball, but anyone who can comfortably handle the college ball should be able to handle the NFL ball.

 

Another thing, what they are actually measuring with hand size is the span of the thumb tip to the pinky tip when you splay the hand out.  That is a measure of pinky flexibility as much as anything else.  I measured my hands the way the NFL does out of curiosity after this debate first started springing up, and was surprised to learn that my left hand was larger even though I am right handed.  Then I realized it was probably from growing up playing guitar and developing more flexibility with my fretting hand.  You don't grip a football with your pinky splayed out wide.  The issue could be as irrelevant as Pickett just not having good pinky finger flexibility due to any number of reasons which have no bearing on his quarterbacking.

 

The hand size debate we have about QB prospects, especially ones with small hands, feels way overblown.  Some of the flak he's getting for his hands feels like an attempt to write off Pickett with a purity test despite him playing better than the other QB prospects this season.  At the very most, it's a small piece of the total physical traits puzzle that you have to evaluate in addition to the mental part.  At the least, it's a measurement as relevant as the guy's shoe size.  I don't think it should disqualify any prospect.

 

IMO the hand size thing is a bit like arm strength. It's not the end-all-be-all and it's lower down on most checklists for a QB, but there's still a certain level that teams generally want a QB to be above in order to be successful in the NFL.

 

Just like it's not a huge deal if a guy doesn't have a Josh Allen arm as long as he at least has a regular NFL arm ala Alex Smith or someone like that, it's ok...but if a guy has a Chad Pennington arm then that could become a much bigger issue in the NFL because it will limit what he can do.

 

I think hand size is along the same lines. If they're a bit small (Burrow for example) it's not considered a deal breaker or anything. But if they're miniscule for an NFL QB like Pickett's reportedly are, then that raises more potential concerns.

[Going Commando]

30 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

REally? I have been hearing 9-ish. If we're talking 8 range thats different. But I think we should wait til the combine for measurements on this. Like I said, I'm not in love with his game right now because he was a late bloomer and even then didn't bloom into an elite, just above average. 

 

4300 passing yards and 47 TDs against 12 TOs and a Heisman Trophy Finalist nod feels elite to me.  He had a pretty great season by any standard.  He played at a shockingly high individual level in addition to achieving team success and elevating a Pitt team that wasn't particularly special to a conference championship.  This was technically just the second time since the ACC's expansion/realignment that someone other than Clemson, Florida State, or VT won the thing.  It feels like an incredible stat that Pitt now has more ACC championships in football than Miami.  And it also feels noteworthy that he set all of these program records at the school Dan Marino went to.  That historical context to his career makes him an interesting prospect.

 

I get the widespread skepticism of him given that his season really came out of nowhere.  I share some of it, but given how many excellent young QB prospects have recently come into the league following one big year in college, I think it matters more whether or not the lightbulb does come on than when it comes on.  I don't really understand what or how it happened, but Kenny Pickett grew into a baller this season and mastered the game at his level.  Clearly his offensive line was better in pass protection, and the emergence of Jordan Addison was a big factor in his success.  But they don't adequately explain 400% growth in production, and it's not like the other top QB prospects (aside from Willis) are working with less talent than him.  His massive improvement of his accuracy and playmaking creativity and field reading/anticipation come down to him making huge individual strides and unlocking that special ability to see the code in the matrix.  And honestly I look at his prior experience of struggling and grinding it out just to achieve mediocrity as a positive rather than a negative.  Most prospects aren't going to have his starting experience, especially not his experience with adverse playing conditions.

 

I still like Malik Willis better than him, but you can't write Pickett off.  I could easily see him ending up being the best QB from this class because he's already shown us a season of that happening.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

I disagree. Ball size changes mechanics if your hands are just large enough to handle a smaller football. I've seen it happen in real life.

 

Will that be the case for Pickett? I'm not sure. But I'm not judging him either way until I see him throw the NFL ball. 

 

I bet it'll look the same as when he throws the college ball.  The only difference you can even partially feel with the NFL ball is that it's a tiny bit bigger around the noses.  It's not like going from like a youth ball to a college ball.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I bet it'll look the same as when he throws the college ball.  The only difference you can even partially feel with the NFL ball is that it's a tiny bit bigger around the noses.  It's not like going from like a youth ball to a college ball.

 

This is very subjective and objectively not true.

 

But to the first part, it may look the same. Hence why I am avoiding judgement until my largest questions are answered.

Edited January 6, 2022 by KDawg

[Going Commando]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

This is very subjective and objectively not true.

 

But to the first part, it may look the same. Hence why I am avoiding judgement until my largest questions are answered.

 

No, it is objectively true that the difference between the size of the NFL ball and the college ball is tiny.  You're talking about a difference in circumference either way around the ball of less than half an inch.  The only consistent difference between the two balls is that the college ball is usually a tiny bit longer and thus the NFL ball is a little bit wider around the noses.  It's not enough to effect his grip when he throws.

22 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

IMO the hand size thing is a bit like arm strength. It's not the end-all-be-all and it's lower down on most checklists for a QB, but there's still a certain level that teams generally want a QB to be above in order to be successful in the NFL.

 

Just like it's not a huge deal if a guy doesn't have a Josh Allen arm as long as he at least has a regular NFL arm ala Alex Smith or someone like that, it's ok...but if a guy has a Chad Pennington arm then that could become a much bigger issue in the NFL because it will limit what he can do.

 

I think hand size is along the same lines. If they're a bit small (Burrow for example) it's not considered a deal breaker or anything. But if they're miniscule for an NFL QB like Pickett's reportedly are, then that raises more potential concerns.

 

What specifically are those concerns?

 

Hand size is nowhere near as relevant or palpable a trait as arm strength.  And when we're talking about differences in the hand size of NFL QBs, we're talking about a difference of two inches going from one extreme to the other.  That is miniscule.  And the way the NFL measures hand size doesn't really correlate to the way an NFL QB actually uses his hand to hold a football.  Nobody splays out their pinky super wide when they grip a football to throw it, run a fake or hand off, or protect it through contact.

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

No, it is objectively true that the difference between the size of the NFL ball and the college ball is tiny.  You're talking about a difference in circumference either way around the ball of less than half an inch.  The only consistent difference between the two balls is that the college ball is usually a tiny bit longer and thus the NFL ball is a little bit wider around the noses.  It's not enough to effect his grip when he throws.

 

 

 

You aren't going to razzle dazzle me against things I've seen in person on this one Steve. That doesn't mean it'll happen to Pickett. I'll let it play out.

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

What specifically are those concerns?

 

Hand size is nowhere near as relevant or palpable a trait as arm strength.  And when we're talking about differences in the hand size of NFL QBs, we're talking about a difference of two inches going from one extreme to the other.  That is miniscule.  And the way the NFL measures hand size doesn't really correlate to the way an NFL QB actually uses his hand to hold a football.  Nobody splays out their pinky super wide when they grip a football to throw it, run a fake or hand off, or protect it through contact.

 

Mostly concerns about the ability to handle the ball, controlling it, putting good spin on it, especially in colder weather. Usually it's not a big deal if a guy has hands a little smaller than average for an NFL QB (Burrow) but with Pickett I can see more legit concerns because his reported hand size is absolutely tiny by NFL standards. It's also apparently already some sort of issue with him since he reportedly wears 2 gloves on his throwing hand in college.

 

You can complain about the apparent difference in size being seemingly miniscule, but it's small things and details like that which can make big differences in the NFL game. But I doubt that will stop you from opining on it and repeatedly explaining to everyone why they're wrong and complete numbskulls (including people here who are literally football coaches).

[Ghost of]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

His hands are so so little. 

Kenny Pickett's dad is the creepy uncle-lawyer from Always Sunny.

[wilco_holland]

You know you are going into the crazy season when a group of grown man have pages long discussions about hand sizes. 

[Comrade Wolf]

It might be worse that I just spent 30 mins looking for a tape measure 🤷‍♂️!