2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[philibusters]

At this point I have Kenny Pickett as my top QB and Matt Corrall number 2.  I very tentatively have Howell third.

[illone]

20 hours ago, GOATFrerotte said:

I don’t know what Kenny Pickett did over the off-season but he should write a book about it because not sure if I’ve seen a 4 year starter be so terrible for his first 3 years than all of a sudden became an unstoppable legit nfl prospect. Crazy

 

similar thing happened with Joe Burrow…

 

 

[illone]

Excellent film work on Pickett

 

 

[mistertim]

I really like J.T.'s QB breakdowns. I'd be curious to see him do a breakdown of Pickett from this season and hear what he sees are the differences from the above video which was based on his tape before this season started. He clearly figured something out and got into a groove, but I'm wondering what the biggest differences are.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

Thinks he should go mid 1st.

 

My take on QB value is that you can't pinpoint it that accurately.  I think you grade them yes/no for each round.  Then you gather up all of the QBs with a yes in each round and rank them in the order you prefer them.  So if you've got Pickett as a yes in round one, and he's available at your pick, and he's also your favorite of all of your round 1 QBs available, then you can pick him #1 overall and feel fine about the value of the choice.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

57 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

My take on QB value is that you can't pinpoint it that accurately.  I think you grade them yes/no for each round.  Then you gather up all of the QBs with a yes in each round and rank them in the order you prefer them.  So if you've got Pickett as a yes in round one, and he's available at your pick, and he's also your favorite of all of your round 1 QBs available, then you can pick him #1 overall and feel fine about the value of the choice.

 

Yeah, QB's have their own value chart independent of other positions.  No idea what appropriate methodology should be, but yours makes sense.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

Man the two guys I really wanted on this D Parsons and Surtain. They were locks to be studs. They didn't come close to falling to 19 and I guess that's not a surprise now.

[The Consigliere]

On 10/25/2021 at 3:08 PM, kwitt said:

Serious question.  If you don't have a legit quarterback in today's NFL then you have nothing and NOTHING else matters.  History has shown time and time again that finding QBs in the draft is a crap shoot at best.   Would you take a QB with each of you first 2 or maybe even 3 picks?  

 

Depends on the class. In '05 when the Niners idiotically took Smith at 1.01, I told my dad (a niners fan) and friends (I'm from the bay) that they should just trade up for Rodgers, because Smith was a low floor low ceiling prospect, and Rodgers was a high floor guy. Nobody ever does that, they didn't, and I'm sure they wish they did, just like I'm sure all of us wish Gibbs hadn't developed a laser focus on Campbell above all else in that draft (and a mediocre corner prospect who needed lasik). 

 

It's a waste of assets, to be fair, but when it comes to QB, the tactic that seems to work best is taking a QB fairly often in the round 2-4 zone even if you have one, if you love a guys upside. Periodically you hit, and have a huge asset you can trade for goodies, and a great backup for injury. Some teams like the Packers have done that repeatedly over the years and reaped some nice draft comp for it. 

 

The big issue is in my experience, looking back, when the league itself is down on a draft class, they are right. There are sometimes hidden gems in the class, but generally the classes where the league is blase about the talent end up being bad classes, and the classes they tend to like, are usually at least solid. 

Bad ones they called bad ahead of time and were right:

2002

2003

2005

2008

2009

2010

2013

2014

2015 and 2016 after the top 2

2019

 

Only one I can think of where they were kinda off was 2000 which gave up Drew Brees and Tom Brady outside the top 29 or thereabouts, and also featured Vick. At the time it was viewed as Vick, and not much else if memory serves.

 

1999 was perceived by me and plenty others as the best since '83 but it went over like a fart in church:

1: Couch-Bust

2: D. McNabb-Hit

3: Akili Smith-Bust

4. Culpepper-Hit

5. Cade McNown-Bust

 

And in fairness, my value pick, Culpepper basically had a short career, was good like '99-'05 or something like that, and then flamed out, so only 1 out of 5 built a long term career. I had those guys rated:

1.Culpepper

2. Couch

3. McNabb

4. Smith

 

Undraftable-McNown (saw him live against my alma mater (Cal) and he was horrific. Really, really weak arm. It was obvious he didn't have the arm, the bears took him anyway. 

 

 

Anyway, to me, I trust the generalized consensus the year before the draft, I'm gun shy about fast risers I never heard of in their final overage draft year, and only target drafts for QB when it's a good class: so for me, part of the problem with the redskins if they've repeatedly gone after QB's in crappy draft classes: '94, '02, '05, '19. The only year they went after QB where it was actually good was '12. 

 

Our biggest issue is we focused on DL instead of a QB solution when we knew we didn't have a long term QB in '17 and '18 (Cousins was going to leave, Alex Smith was a stupid stop gap decision (as heroic as he was in taking us to the playoffs and sabotaging our chance to get Fields or Mac Jones in '21) and again in '20. Now it's a bad class so we can overpay for an older option or draft yet another bad class high risk guy and pretend we took the problem seriously. We haven't, we didn't, and now we are paying for it, just as we were before, and just as we will continue to do barring a miracle. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 10/27/2021 at 10:17 AM, GOATFrerotte said:

I don’t know what Kenny Pickett did over the off-season but he should write a book about it because not sure if I’ve seen a 4 year starter be so terrible for his first 3 years than all of a sudden became an unstoppable legit nfl prospect. Crazy

if it wasn't for Burrow doing something similar in '19, I'd be completely ignoring him as a 1st round prospect. Overage prospects killing it against kids 3 years younger is nearly ALWAYS a red flag with a player these days. The best go into the draft early, if you're a senior, it's usually (not always) a bad sign, especially if you were irrelevant the majority of your previous years. 

15 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

I know breakout age is used often for wide receivers.  But does it matter for QB's?  If they suddenly "get it", as in what the offense is trying to do vs the defense on play design, that's a trait that will carry over to the NFL.

 

Not sure if this applies directly to Pickett's situation, just a random note.

 

It is super relevant with WR's, and to a lesser extent with other positions. With QB's, I don't really know, if a guy is killing it immediately it's a good sign, it's more, why was this guy mediocre every single season until he was a senior? Usually it's not a good sign, at all, that you couldn't do squat until your final year, but there are contrary examples. 

[The Consigliere]

8 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Joel Klatt gives a pretty good analysis of Kenny Pickett's journey and he calls it "hyper veteran college QB's" that end up figuring it out late in their college career and end up being really good NFL QB's, like a Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones or Joe Burrow.  They stick around long enough to learn the game but no quite physically gifted to rely on athleticism alone early on.  Thinks he should go mid 1st.

 

It starts around the 6 minute mark.

 

 

 

He needs better examples:

Baker transferred from Texas Tech to Oklahoma after his freshman years and immediately started killing it from year 1 at Oklahoma: 129 TD's vs 21 picks across those last 3 years, nearly identical seasons other than YPA which jumped 2 yards for his final 2 years an accuracy which jumped into the 70's his final two years. Mac Jones is a bit closer as he just had a 140 throws and about 4 or 5 starts as a sophmore, but like Mayfield, he was great too, as a sophmore in the limited action. So I don't know, Pickett sounds more like Burrow to me, except he's not doing it with megatalent like Burrow was (2 of the best 3 or 4 WR prospects of the past decade were on that LSU team). 

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[philibusters]

31 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

if it wasn't for Burrow doing something similar in '19, I'd be completely ignoring him as a 1st round prospect. Overage prospects killing it against kids 3 years younger is nearly ALWAYS a red flag with a player these days. The best go into the draft early, if you're a senior, it's usually (not always) a bad sign, especially if you were irrelevant the majority of your previous years. 

 

It is super relevant with WR's, and to a lesser extent with other positions. With QB's, I don't really know, if a guy is killing it immediately it's a good sign, it's more, why was this guy mediocre every single season until he was a senior? Usually it's not a good sign, at all, that you couldn't do squat until your final year, but there are contrary examples. 

 

Terry McLaurlin is a heck of a player but he was 23 years old when we drafted him and turned 24 during his rookie season (he recently turned 26).  Like a lot of things there may be a tiny bit of truth to the thinking that older prospects who do well against younger players are likely to bust, but its a soft rule at best.

 

Pickett will likewise be 23 at the time of the draft and he'll turn 24 before the season starters.  The thing is a lot of young guys (say Haskins) never had that breakthrough where the game slows down for them and they can start analyzing the game on the fly.   In fact probably the majority of QB's drafted never have that breakthrough.  So if guys like Burrow and Pickett have that breakthrough in college (albeit at the age of 23), well that makes them old, but it gives them a high floor.   If Kenny Pickett only ever becomes K. Cousins I could handle that.

Edited October 28, 2021 by philibusters

[CommanderDOOM]

16 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

...If Kenny Pickett only ever becomes K. Cousins I could handle that.

 

At rookie prices or K.Cousins tag??

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[PartyPosse]

I don’t know if any team could handle picking Pickett first over all.

[The Rook]

Is it just me, or does this draft look like WFT is going to be drafting at a slot where "best player available" will be Dline or CB?

 

🤔 Underwhelmed

 

Can't even 🤞for the tank.

 

I do like Kyle Hamilton, safety, but ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

11 hours ago, The Rook said:

Is it just me, or does this draft look like WFT is going to be drafting at a slot where "best player available" will be Dline or CB?

 

🤔 Underwhelmed

 

Can't even 🤞for the tank.

 

I do like Kyle Hamilton, safety, but ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

 

Talent is talent though.  If you're picking high you need better talent period.  The worst thing to do is draft someone with less talent that has a higher chance of busting.

 

This draft has some legit star potential guys in positions we don't need.  But if they're there...we can't afford to not take them.

 

I'd love a QB, but sometimes it just doesn't work out.

[DWinzit]

30 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Talent is talent though.  If you're picking high you need better talent period.  The worst thing to do is draft someone with less talent that has a higher chance of busting.

 

This draft has some legit star potential guys in positions we don't need.  But if they're there...we can't afford to not take them.

 

I'd love a QB, but sometimes it just doesn't work out.

QB is a must for this staff.  I see them trading up or reaching on a QB in the first round at this point. That along with bringing in a FA. 

The early rounds will not be drafting BPA but drafting big needs again

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

11 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

QB is a must for this staff.  I see them trading up or reaching on a QB in the first round at this point. That along with bringing in a FA. 

The early rounds will not be drafting BPA but drafting big needs again

 

Cosmi was BPA, they later released Moses when they saw Cosmi was ready.  Juice was BPA.

 

Davis was a Need spot but not the profile of a Need pick.  In that he wasn't a Day 1 starter, but profiled as an eventual BPA (in hindsight) if he developed as the coaches thought he could.  That's an awkward label where nothing really fits.

 

Are you positive that this team is going for a QB in the 1st?  Just draft whatever one is there, or trade the farm up for one?

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Are you positive that this team is going for a QB in the 1st?  Just draft whatever one is there, or trade the farm up for one?

Positive? Sounds silly. How could anyone be. Like I said, they have emphasized they need to find their QB. Chances are pretty good one will be drafted as long as they like one along with bringing in a FA.

 

LB was emphasized as their biggest need hence Davis in the first

 

They went into the draft with a number of big needs. One of them was a tackle. Luckily Cosmi was still available. That selection felt like a no brainer.

[Koolblue13]

We are definitely drafting a QB in the first. We refused to pay last year for the high cost teams were asking and reached on a position of need. We targeted clear need picks last year, instead of a pure BPA approach and we'll do it again.

[KDawg]

Let’s put it this way…

 

If this team doesn’t get a QB in the first they better have pulled a rabbit out of their hat and gotten a big name QB in trade (which means we aren’t drafting in the first).

 

For this team to go into next season with Heinicke and Allen as the quarterbacks… disastrous.

[illone]

I might be firmly in the Malik Willis camp after watching this:

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I am flicking back and forth between Cincys game and Pitt both Ridder and Pickett look sharp thus far though granted against weak competition