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Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

Cooked Crack

By Cooked Crack
in The Tailgate

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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, tshile said:

I don’t know if that’s fair. I mean generally that makes sense. But fetterman performance in the date was widely considered bad from a “fit for duty” perspective.  (I’m not saying the criticism is valid just that it appears that’s what the criticism was)

 

Which has a different impact than policy position issues. 
 

if you’re a Republican strategist you’re looking at those 600k votes and wondering what they look like if they voted after the debate 

 

(and sure - they look exactly the same, is a possibility)

 

Your takes are...not great this morning.  Volume is very solid tho. 

Edited by PleaseBlitz
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skinny21

skinny21

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tshile said:


well… we didn’t have a presidential election. We didn’t have 1 nationwide democratic campaign against 1 nationwide Republican campaign. We had (mostly) 1 nationwide democrat campaign against a series of different Republican campaigns. 
 

trying to take some macro view of last night seems super stupid. And I don’t see any actual strategists, on either side, doing that.  I see laypeople that think they know a lot of about politics saying that. 
 

there are many states where just within that state we saw a range of Republican candidates yield different results. 
 

in Georgia we saw Abrams (widely considered darling of the dems and champion of their whole platform and running within the nationwide dem platform) lose, while Walker (considered a terrible candidate on both sides) come close to forcing a runoff. 
 

and the warnock/Walker race came down to a strong enough libertarian vote spoiling the race. I don’t see any reasonable people suggesting that libertarian vote goes to Walker. The idea dems didn’t like warnock and voted libertarian and in a runoff would vote Walker doesn’t make anyways sense. However, the idea R supporters didn’t like Walker and voted libertarian, and would likely vote warnock in a runoff makes a ton of sense. 
 

which begs the question - what happens if the Hop ran a good candidate instead of a ****ty candidate. 
 

Republican strategists have been ****ing about Oz being the candidate the whole time - another race where it’s strongly believed a good candidate had a solid chance to win. 
 

taking this macro view is dumb. Republicans are fractured a bit and you’re seeing different results where non-crazy and non-****ty candidates did well, and crazy/****ty candidate didn’t. 
 

extrapolating that out I see people looking at things on that level, concerned what it means for the dems in 2024, and people simply comparing seat counts completely oblivious to that level of analysis…

Gotcha.  It seems we’re talking about different things then?  My point is that it’s a win for dems because of the historical context (which I’m guessing you agree with because you didn’t mention it?) - they should have lost massively from that standpoint.  Yours seems to be that we can’t extrapolate on this because of the context involved on the Republican side.  I agree with you.  

 

I’ll only reiterate your point about the youth vote, and add that perhaps we see Republicans heed McConnell’s thinking about running poor candidates (including the election denying aspect)?  Going to be interesting to see how that piece evolves.  

 

2024 is going to be fascinating.  

 

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The Evil Genius

The Evil Genius

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Your takes are...not great this morning.  Volume is very solid tho. 

 

I thought Fetterman looked solid last night at the podium. And tbh, podium speaking is extremely overrated for congress people.  The majority of their time should be in committee, reading and or writing legislation with their team, and working with constituents. 

 

And fwiw Oz should have been a better opponent had he not tried to win a state he wasn't invested in, not sold out to Maga, and not sold snake oil for the last decade. He was his own worst enemy (and I like Fetterman).

Edited by The Evil Genius
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bearrock

bearrock

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, tshile said:

Sure. 
 

but if you don’t understand that internally the Republican Party is fractured, and there is a piece that is part of trumpism and a piece that rejects it and thinks it’s destroying the party, and if you can’t see that one part of that fracture performed one way and the other performed a different way… and you don’t see how all of this plays into 2024… I don’t know what to tell you. You’re taking an incorrect, high level look at something that isn’t what you think it is. 

 

I mean the real macro high look (and more on topic with what you were discussing with other posters) is that this is the best midterm any incumbent party has had in a very very long time.  Yes they lost the house and either squeaks by or lose the Senate.  But if you told a political prognosticator in early 2021 of Biden's approval, inflation numbers, and general sentiment on economy and crimes come November 2022, they would've universally forecasted a red wave of bilbical proportions. 

 

And there is no particular credit for last night's "good" loss due to the Dems imo.  They didn't field a candidate pool filled with superstars.  Traditional kitchen table issues definitely did not favor them this time around.  They didn't out spend the GOP into oblivion.  There was no magnetic national candidate that could uplift the local races.  Even looking at individual races, it's not as if Fetterman, Warnock, Kelly, Bennett, Hassan were super candidates who could simply bend the race to their favor despite the national mood.  

 

Whether there is a broad national trend to gleam from 2022 election is probably not something we can tell right away.  But on its face, it sure seems to indicate that there was something that tipped what should've been a historic red wave to a narrow victory.  Absent a string of strong local candidates for the Dems, the outcome seems to indicate something broader like increased turnout due to abortion and Trump dragging down his branded candidates.  If your point is that we don't know for sure, yeah, obviously true.  It's like draft night.  We won't know for sure for a while yet.  But there's no denying that yesterday's result was very underwhelming for the GOP compared to historical midterm averages.  And I'm not sure that changes for 2024 and  onwards as long as they remain bat**** crazy on abortion and Trump has his heavy influence on the party.

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Larry

Larry

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, tshile said:

internally the Republican Party is fractured, and there is a piece that is part of trumpism and a piece that rejects it and thinks it’s destroying the party

 

I'm not seeing a huge fracture in the GOP in terms of policy.  

 

The GOP is really huge into denial.  

 

It's why we keep seeing "well, running on trickle down economics cost us an election.  But let's not change the policy.  Let's change the name, and call it 'compassionate conservatism' or something.  And continue to support exactly the same agenda, with a new label."  

 

I could easily see the GOP decide to dump Trump, the person.  (I really expected it to happen about 2 weeks after he took office.)  

 

I don't see any clue that them rejecting the agenda is even on the table.  

 

How many Republicans went on record as saying that a POTUS literally, publicly, admitting, in writing, that he personally asked the head of a foreign government to make a contribution to his personal election campaign "isn't an impeachable offense", just so they could keep Mike Pence from becoming President?  

 

Do you see any sign that there's any Republican willing to say that early abortion ought to be legal?  That being bullies to 13 year old trans kids is wrong?  Heck, that public health is important?  That no, I won't vote to make it easier for next year's Congress to cut Social Security?  Heck, are any of them willing to say that no, white Christian males are not the most discriminated-against people in the country?  

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Ball Security

Ball Security

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, visionary said:

He said Dems are pretty optimistic about the Senate seat there and they look to win all the house seats. He also said it may be a while until they're done counting.  

From what I see, there is one NV seat that is likely D and two toss ups.  The D is in the lead in all three currently.  They’ll need to hold.

 

I recall reading that they felt confident heading into yesterday because of early turnout.  

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Fergasun

Fergasun

Posted
Posted

I just ran numbers on NV.  I am assuming there are about 300k outstanding ballots in Clark County (mail in, dropped off).  In think NV is one that doesn't count mail-in ahead of time.  Plus they are more open to receiving late mail in.

 

The current gap is Laxalt at 23k.  

 

If Masto wins the outstanding 300k at a 55 to 45 clip she can gain 30k in Clark.  That is she needs to be at +10 for new counts. If there are fewer outstanding, tha ln she needs to win at a higher rate... and if she's winning at a higher rate than she can close the gap with less than 300k votes.

 

I feel like we did this in 2020 with Biden and he essily closed the gap.  

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:


This was the best outcome for Dems in terms of putting DeSantis against Trump for 2024. Many high profile Trump picked candidates lost, those that pushed big lie lost Governor races etc, he looks really weak meanwhile Ron massacred Florida. 
 

dems should really hope this causes a big civil war between the two of them that fractures the party or turnout for 2024

That civil war has already started. 
 

The vibe I’m getting is that trumps candidates losing is good for DeSantis. money and backing within the party is paying attention. And from my understanding DeSantis is someone trumpers liked and post-2020 election were getting behind assuming Trump was done as a potential candidate. 

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Ball Security

Ball Security

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

 

 

 

I don’t know if I would jump to his conclusion.  If 98% of the votes are in, then there is about 80k votes left.  If Warnock gets 55% of that vote (don’t know how that 80k breaks among the five counties), he’d get 50.5% of the vote.

 

EDIT: Psych.  My maths be wrong. Used the wrong denominator.  Warnock would need 80% of the remaining vote.  This dude is likely correct.  My bad.

Edited by Ball Security
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