Grading Kyle Smith's off season (free agency, re-signings, draft)

[Chump Bailey]

I think Kyle made a mistake not (seemingly) prioritizing OL help earlier. I still think our OT depth and starters are huge question marks across the board. The more pressing problem we need to consider is that the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants all had A grade drafts. This division is going to be nasty and ultracompetitive sooner than later. 

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

I think Kyle made a mistake not (seemingly) prioritizing OL help earlier. I still think our OT depth and starters are huge question marks across the board. The more pressing problem we need to consider is that the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants all had A grade drafts. This division is going to be nasty and ultracompetitive sooner than later. 

 

By earlier, when do you mean?

 

Not saying I don't agree that the line isn't a mess, but which prospect is a better football player than Antonio Gibson? And, as its extremely relevant, which is better than Saahdiq Charles (setting aside the character issues for a second)?

 

I think Lucas could also be a starting caliber tackle for us.

 

I think the team addressed most of these situations, to be honest.

[pcbothwel]

Just now, Chump Bailey said:

I think Kyle made a mistake not (seemingly) prioritizing OL help earlier. I still think our OT depth and starters are huge question marks across the board. The more pressing problem we need to consider is that the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants all had A grade drafts. This division is going to be nasty and ultracompetitive sooner than later. 

 

Couldnt disagree more. We took a LT in the 4th and Im not sure you find a better OL prospect than Charles outside the first 3 rounds.

As for the NFC East, The Eagles had a mediocre draft at best. They picked up some decent prospects later in the draft, but their first 3 picks were all taken about a round early and appear to be backups.

I thought the Giants did well, especially with OLinemen and DB's.

I actually think the Dallas draft was a bit overrated because of Lamb. I love his high floor and YAC, but I want to see his separation outside of the pillow swinging DB's in the Big 12. I think he becomes a really good #2, but he is not some elite WR talent in my opinion. We'll see

 

[lavar1156]

I'm concerned about corner. Really wish we would have signed Breeland as well.

[Chump Bailey]

14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

By earlier, when do you mean?

 

Not saying I don't agree that the line isn't a mess, but which prospect is a better football player than Antonio Gibson? And, as its extremely relevant, which is better than Saahdiq Charles (setting aside the character issues for a second)?

 

I think Lucas could also be a starting caliber tackle for us.

 

I think the team addressed most of these situations, to be honest.

 

I'm just not a fan of the Charles pick. Jones, Driscoll, Bartch, Cleveland all were better options in my opinion. Charles is more of a project for me than anything. I like Gibson, but he is someone we likely have to scheme touches for. It's not a selection I would have made either personally although he is very talented. I had him as my wildcard pick.

11 minutes ago, pcbothwel said:

 

Couldnt disagree more. We took a LT in the 4th and Im not sure you find a better OL prospect than Charles outside the first 3 rounds.

As for the NFC East, The Eagles had a mediocre draft at best. They picked up some decent prospects later in the draft, but their first 3 picks were all taken about a round early and appear to be backups.

I thought the Giants did well, especially with OLinemen and DB's.

I actually think the Dallas draft was a bit overrated because of Lamb. I love his high floor and YAC, but I want to see his separation outside of the pillow swinging DB's in the Big 12. I think he becomes a really good #2, but he is not some elite WR talent in my opinion. We'll see

 

 

That's okay. The Cowboys, Eagles and Giants all had tremendous drafts. I think most draft pundits would agree with my position.

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'm just not a fan of the Charles pick. Jones, Driscoll, Bartch, Cleveland all were better options in my opinion. Charles is more of a project for me than anything. I like Gibson, but he is someone we likely have to scheme touches for. It's not a selection I would have made either personally although he is very talented. I had him as my wildcard pick.

 

Cleveland was gone at 66.

 

And I think you're underrating Charles as a tackle prospect. But to each their own

[Chump Bailey]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Cleveland was gone at 66.

 

I was just listing names I liked better than Charles. If he was gone before our pick so be it. PFF did not like the pick. Most analysts I listen to are also very ho-hum about it. I doubt he will be Trent's successor but we will find out.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I was was just listing names I liked better than Charles. If he was gone before our pick so be it. PFF did not like the pick. Most analysts I listen to are also very ho-hum about it. I doubt he will be Trent's successor but we will find out.

 

Hey may not be. He may play a guard spot. Or be Moses' successor. 

 

Lucas could wind up being Trent's successor EDIT: this season*

 

 

[Chump Bailey]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Hey may not be. He may play a guard spot. Or be Moses' successor. 

 

Lucas could wind up being Trent's successor.

 

 

 

Lucas is interesting and I did forget about him. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

NFL average is 35% hit rate on draft picks.  I think Kyle's history is probably above that average even given being handicapped by BA and a disfunctional FO.  I expect things to be really good going forward with the synergy RR and Kyle have shown.

 

This is a key point that some miss over the years.  For example if they got Ioannidis right and Cravens wrong in the same draft - don't cry so much about the 2nd round miss.  Stuff like that happens.  Or missing on Geron Christian but nailing it with Chase Rouhlier.  That's how drafts work.  You can blow it with your first rounder but nail it later with someone else.  Most say if you get 2 starters and 2 role players out of a draft, you've nailed it.

 

Some of these players aren't going to work out and that's OK.  My point is to be patient with Kyle because he is going to miss like everyone else does.  And it means nothing if for example your 4th rounder works out but your 2nd rounder doesn't.   I say this because I noticed in some debates at times people nail them for getting a high pick wrong while dismissing the lower round hit.   For me, I don't care if your top players are your 4th-7th rounders and your first rounder is a royal bust.  It's just part of the randomness of the draft process.

 

And you got to give a GM IMO at least a three year sample size.  John Schneider who is the best GM arguably in the business in his about decade or so run in Seattle has arguably 2 really bad drafts in that mix, stuff happens.

 

As for this current draft in real time, I like it.  Chase Young I've worshipped since the fall.  Antonio Gibson was one of my guys before the draft -- love him.  I like Gandy- Golden.  I did like Charles before the draft, worried about character, but it was probably worth the risk.  I didn't know much about Hudson before the draft but loved what I've seen as I started diving into him.  I like Moss an UDFA.   The other players I still got to dive into.  

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

New coaching staff and a new front office.  The previous coaching staff and front office had their own evaluations of the roster.  This new group comes in and has a different perspective on what needs to be done.

 

Apparently, the new guys thought our depth was atrocious, and some of our starters were roster bubble guys.

 

Free Agency: A (Great)

We spent the 9th most money in 2020.  This is a little misleading given that most of this is 1 year or 2 year deals, but it's not like we didn't toss around money.  The moves weren't enticing, but they do seem necessary.  Normally that just gives a 'C' grade, but what bumps it up for me is a clear plan for the future.

2020 Cap Space = $35.6 million (2nd most in NFL right now)

2020 Cost of Draft Picks = $11.4 million

2021 Projected Cap Space with 2020 rollover = $112 million (3rd most in NFL)

 

I'm going to break this down in another way:

	Team	2021 Cap Space
1	Colts	$147,819,394
2	Chargers	$139,715,115
3	Redskins	$112,138,869
4	Jaguars	$111,534,577
5	Patriots	$103,306,966
6	Ravens	$95,845,022
7	Browns	$95,707,647
8	Seahawks	$86,869,293
9	Bengals	$83,865,631
10	Jets	$82,973,208
11	Cardinals	$81,368,394
12	Titans	$79,436,991
13	Lions	$78,159,603
14	Dolphins	$77,803,128
15	Buccaneers	$76,535,672
16	Giants	$76,099,731
17	Broncos	$65,705,531
18	Chiefs	$62,956,257
19	Bills	$57,960,571
20	Packers	$55,445,379
21	Panthers	$54,867,756
22	Steelers	$46,858,600
23	Texans	$44,837,382
24	49ers	$44,291,286
25	Rams	$44,102,217
26	Bears	$43,804,240
27	Vikings	$41,517,172
28	Cowboys	$41,456,085
29	Raiders	$38,697,907
30	Falcons	$10,240,963
31	Saints	-$8,367,386
32	Eagles	-$17,650,949

 

Part of planning for the future is finding where you stand amongst your closest competitors and windows in which you can widen disparities.

-Cowboys and Eagles were borderline playoff teams in 2019.  Who knows what happens in 2020, but they're entering 2021 season with Bottom 5 cap room in the NFL.

-Giants and Redskins were awful in 2019, who knows what happens in 2020, but Giants are league average in cap room, while Redskins have Top 5 cap space.

 

There's a situation in the NFC East, where our competitors are cap strapped and their path forward is limited and predictable, whereas the Redskins will have oodles of cap space to where they can go in any option they please.  Ideally, the easiest window to compete is when your QB is on a rookie contract.  2021 and 2022 are the last two dirt cheap years for Haskins.  If Haskins pans out, the team is well positioned to load up in free agency to go on a run.  This seems smart.

 

Trades: C (average)

It's hard to tell whether we got fleeced, we fleeced them, and who got value.  If rumors are true, we played the Dunbar situation well, as we could only get a 6th or 7th rounder offers for him, until we persuaded Seattle to give up a 5th.

Things going in Dunbar's favor:

 - A great season, if a bit overrated by PFF.

 - 2020 salary is cheap

Things going against Dunbar: 

 - Wants a big payday

 - Always hurt, and has played under 50% of total snaps past 2 seasons.

 

Even if Dunbar played well again in 2020, odds are he wouldn't be on the team for a championship contending window in 2021 and 2022.  He's often injured and that unfortunately makes him unreliable.

 

Trent Williams...who knows.  Rumors abound about what he wanted.  He supposedly torpedoed a trade to the Vikings.  The Browns decided they didn't want to deal with that mess and instead drafted a OT.  The problem wasn't caused by any current decision making authority currently on the team.  It's unfortunate, but at least the team managed to get a Day 2 pick out of it, even if it is for the next draft.

 

Draft: B (above average)

It's far too early to actually grade a draft.  But something that's come out recently, that we as a fanbase didn't really know is the shift in how our front office works with our coaching staff.

 - Rumored Bruce Allen and Jay Gruden power structure.  Committee approach, everyone gets a vote, and if there's a tie, Bruce will vote again to break it.

 - Actual Bruce Allen and Jay Gruden power structure.  Vague committee if it's something Bruce doesn't care about, but he'd rather just sign/trade/draft players he thinks fits what the team should be doing instead of what the coaches want to do.  Square Peg meets Round Hole.  Coaches could not figure out how to adapt, and the Front Office had no desire to make things easier for them.

 

Now, we've got a Front Office who sat side by side with the coaching staff at the Senior Bowl and laid out plans and visions for how those guys would operate in the scheme they want to run.  How they like to adapt, and what they think would work with the roster.

 

That sounds competent.  So on positive communication and having coaches and front office on the same page, with a unified goal...the draft grade gets an above average 'B' instead of an average 'C'.

[HigSkin]

😂😂😂  The GOAT!

 

 

[Est.1974]

One caveat on the 2021 cap space being we have about 30+ players becoming free agents after the 2020 season.

[NYSkins21]

24 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

New coaching staff and a new front office.  The previous coaching staff and front office had their own evaluations of the roster.  This new group comes in and has a different perspective on what needs to be done.

Excellent post!

[veteranskinsfan]

When you have time go to profootballtalk.com and read Mike Florio article entitled: "49ers played 4D chess to land Trent Williams."

He explains how Trent and his agent worked with John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to keep the fact that Joe Staley was retiring secret

until the trade was completed and how Staley kept his retirement secret too.  So the implication is our Head Coach and acting General Manager 

were deliberately misled in order to make sure Washington did not increase their draft pick compensation for Williams.

[Malapropismic Depository]

12 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

When you have time go to profootballtalk.com and read Mike Florio article entitled: "49ers played 4D chess to land Trent Williams."

He explains how Trent and his agent worked with John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to keep the fact that Joe Staley was retiring secret

until the trade was completed and how Staley kept his retirement secret too.  So the implication is our Head Coach and acting General Manager 

were deliberately misled in order to make sure Washington did not increase their draft pick compensation for Williams.

 

Yea, I was wondering why the 49er's bit of "desperation factor" in the imminently retiring Staley, did not result in higher compensation for TW.

Trade compensation is highly influenced by need or desperation, and the 9ers had that

[sportsnut]

44 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

When you have time go to profootballtalk.com and read Mike Florio article entitled: "49ers played 4D chess to land Trent Williams."

He explains how Trent and his agent worked with John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to keep the fact that Joe Staley was retiring secret

until the trade was completed and how Staley kept his retirement secret too.  So the implication is our Head Coach and acting General Manager 

were deliberately misled in order to make sure Washington did not increase their draft pick compensation for Williams.

I posted about this earlier in this thread with some links to some other good articles about it.  I don’t think Staley’s retirement was such a secret.  In Peter King’s FMIA today he indicated that Tampa Bay knew about the retirement and that’s why they were willing to pay a fourth to move up one spot and get Wirfs.  But the sketchy part is Trent’s agent nixing the better trade we were going to do with Minnesota by publicly stating that Trent didn’t want to play there.  I suspect that every time we had a trade in place, Trent’s agent would tell the interested team that Trent wanted an extension to be among the highest paid tackles in order to scare them off, but Trent has now said he is willing to play out his current contract with San Fran.  Trent’s agent made him only tradable to San Fran.  I wonder how involved San Fran was with Trent’s agent in nixing trades to other teams.

[Est.1974]

Will be interesting to see if any mud gets sling over that trade. I suspect we just want to move on. 
 

Would be fun if we really did want Jason Peters, same agent and all that.

[CommandB11]

2 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Will be interesting to see if any mud gets sling over that trade. I suspect we just want to move on. 
 

Would be fun if we really did want Jason Peters, same agent and all that.

TWs backup, and player most likely with first crack at starting role, also has the same agent. Geron Christian.

[Number 44]

44 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

When you have time go to profootballtalk.com and read Mike Florio article entitled: "49ers played 4D chess to land Trent Williams."

He explains how Trent and his agent worked with John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to keep the fact that Joe Staley was retiring secret

until the trade was completed and how Staley kept his retirement secret too.  So the implication is our Head Coach and acting General Manager 

were deliberately misled in order to make sure Washington did not increase their draft pick compensation for Williams.

 

As I said in my reply to your same post in another thread, I really don't think that RR and Kyle were unaware of the probability of Staley's retirement.  I think the dishonesty and unprofessionalism of Williams' agent played a roll in Minnesota backing out of a trade with us for Williams, though.  The guy has cost Williams at least 12 million dollars and has alienated GMs and members of the media.  I have no idea why any players are sticking with him rather than switching to decent representation.  I know he doesn't have a large client list, but how on earth does he have any?

[NYSkins21]

58 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

When you have time go to profootballtalk.com and read Mike Florio article entitled: "49ers played 4D chess to land Trent Williams."

He explains how Trent and his agent worked with John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to keep the fact that Joe Staley was retiring secret

until the trade was completed and how Staley kept his retirement secret too.  So the implication is our Head Coach and acting General Manager 

were deliberately misled in order to make sure Washington did not increase their draft pick compensation for Williams.

Dont buy it. Sorry, I forget who it was that mentioned it in an earlier post but Kyle and RR aren't dummies. If the 49ers are pursuing an elite veteran LT, there's a reason for it. No way they bamboozled.

 

Bottom line, there was more value in receiving a 5th and 3rd next year than having this drag on any further while they're trying to create a positive culture. Having everyone on board is vital to this.

 

*Edit* I think it might have been you 'Number 44'.

[Koolblue13]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

By earlier, when do you mean?

 

Not saying I don't agree that the line isn't a mess, but which prospect is a better football player than Antonio Gibson? And, as its extremely relevant, which is better than Saahdiq Charles (setting aside the character issues for a second)?

 

I think Lucas could also be a starting caliber tackle for us.

 

I think the team addressed most of these situations, to be honest.

Turners offense should help too.

[sportsnut]

12 minutes ago, NYSkins21 said:

Dont buy it. Sorry, I forget who it was that mentioned it in an earlier post but Kyle and RR aren't dummies. If the 49ers are pursuing an elite veteran LT, there's a reason for it. No way they bamboozled.

 

Bottom line, there was more value in receiving a 5th and 3rd next year than having this drag on any further while they're trying to create a positive culture. Having everyone on board is vital to this.

The chess move wasn’t lying about Staley’s retirement.  It was colluding with Trent’s agent to nix trades to other teams by having him lie about Trent’s contract demands.

[NYSkins21]

1 minute ago, sportsnut said:

The chess move wasn’t lying about Staley’s retirement, it was colluding with Trent’s agent to nix trades to other teams by having him lie about his contract demands.

Oh okay. Yes, I can definitely see that happening and believe it did.

[Malapropismic Depository]

4 minutes ago, sportsnut said:

The chess move wasn’t lying about Staley’s retirement.  It was colluding with Trent’s agent to nix trades to other teams by having him lie about Trent’s contract demands.

 

Now, I can understand why TW rejected the Minnesota trade.

He was holding out until SF was on the table.

At least, a lot of things are pointing that direction