2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

On 5/15/2020 at 12:49 PM, KDawg said:

I don’t think Gibson is a surprise. He was a reach in terms of where the team may have been able to get him, perhaps quite a few slots lower, but that assumes a trade partner. Short of that, if he was their top guy of the next 32 you pull the trigger and don’t look back.

 

Agree.  If I recall you and me where among the bigger Gibson guys here.  The day before the draft when we listed who are "our guys", Gibson was on that list for me.  I recall saying multiple times for the Shenault fans as for him being an athletic freak -- why not equal if not more hype then about Gibson?  Gibson is about the same size of Shenault but with the electric speed that some thought Shenault had (granted maybe the injury slowed him down) but might not. 

 

For a dude that big to run in the 4.3's that's freakish.   He didn't get a lot of reps at Memphis but when he did the dude looked straight out of a video game as to breaking tackles and breakaway speed.  I thought the late bloomer-non big numbers-non big school would allow him to fall to the 4th.  But I had no issue at all taking him in the third.

 

I was jazzed when we drafted Gibson.  Outside of Chase, he's the one I'd put money on in Vegas that I think will be a great NFL player. 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

 

EDIT: Redskins at 47:55

 

 

[Fresh8686]

Been watching a lot of analysis on this past years successful rookies like McLaurin, Metcalf, Brown, and Samuels. Plus some stuff on Christian McCaffery, Joe Mixon, and David Johnson to get some idea of where Antonio Gibson might be able to succeed as both a WR and RB.  

 

One thing i like about Kyle and his team is they draft with balls. They aren’t afraid to go after guys who show high upside across multiple traits, even if the sample size is small. 

 

AG broke at least one tackle on over 48% of his carries which lead all running backs. The guy in second place to him, was a full 10% lower than him. According to the redskins he’s 6’2” and 228 lbs which is taller and heavier than both AJ Brown and Deebo Samuels while also running a 4.39 40 yard dash which is faster than both of them who ran 4.48/4.49 respectively. He’s also never fumbled the ball in his college career, was injury free, and averaged over 11 ypc. 

 

However, the problem with AG is his jab step is inconsistent at best and rarely forces the DB to commit to a given leverage. If he can work on some of that hip tightness and jab and drive more forcefully he should be able to win more effectively at the line and out of his breaks in the ways both AJ and Deebo did. However, AJ has actual straight up pass rushing moves he uses to fight off press that I don’t expect AG to show at any level this year. I hope more for a Deebo level and pathway for success in accelerating out of press. I think DK Metcalf’s level of acceleration and double move ability is out of AG’s reach, but he’s just a notch below and still has the capacity to make both LB’s and corners pay if he can get their hips turned just a bit.

 

I’m looking for three steps or less on breaks in hook or hitch routes to have any chance of separation and AG has shown that. He’s got the speed to be enough of a threat to see consistent off coverage and he has the strength to maintain leverage on his routes, however his contested catch percentage is poor and you’re asking too much of him for any serious work on the outside this year. 

 

 

He’s got potential to be a 3-Down capable running back and he’s able to be our pass catching back who can flex to slot right now (albeit with a limited route tree). Our bigger Christian McCaffery, although CMC is obviously a much much more polished and proven product, especially when it comes to setting up blocks and route running. 

 

I really like AG and what he can eventually turn into, especially if we can really get him going in both the run and pass game. He’ll free up Sims to focus more on just playing the slot and will be our inside zone, sweeps, and screen guy. And although it’s a small sample size I did like his run blocking potential and have some hope for his pass-blocking on 3rd down. It should be fun as hell watching him along side AP or Guice in two back sets with McLaurin and Harmon/AGG on the outside and whoever the hell our TE will be, I guess Logan Thomas. 

 

Next I’m watching Saahdiq Charles and trying to figure out how much his hand fighting, punch placement and mental game will need to improve to have a guy like Joe Thomas as his ceiling, given that they have similar measurables. SC’s got great footwork, although he can lose it some when he has to make multiple lateral adjustments, but he’s also an absorber rather than mauler in most cases, but his pull game is nice and he can get out there in a hurry. 

 

I like the potential and schematic fit of this draft class, given the capital we had to work with and for once we have a unified direction as a team and coaching staff that also includes manufacturing uncertainty with motions and disguises that will keep other teams from teeing off on us all the damn time. 

[Anselmheifer]

I think I'm still not convinced that Ja'Marr Chase is an instant star in the NFL. I'm attaching a video of his game vs CJ Henderson below. Chase has one deep TD in which Henderson gets picked and has no chance and there is no safety over the top. That was good play design and Chase basically did nothing special on that play. Outside that play, Chase didn't look like he could get separation. If I had only watched that game, I'd say that Henderson was the better NFL prospect than Ja'Marr Chase. I know Chase had some big games. But, he was playing on a once in a lifetime offensive team. So much talent and such a perfect coordinator for that talent. I really think Chase could fall back to earth this year and get selected in the teens. 

 

 

[volsmet]

On 3/18/2020 at 2:03 AM, volsmet said:

If draft cost was not a factor, Cam would be there already — Tepper & Kraft are pretty close, they’ve talked about this for months... NE is cheap though. Belichick would love to run Cam into the ground for 2 years, but in the end, people seem to think they’ll go with a cheaper & more familiar guy. 
 

 

Cheap & patient Pats get their guy again.

On 3/18/2020 at 3:28 AM, volsmet said:

I think NE is cheap & if cost wasn’t a consideration they’d take Cam over 95% of the QBs available. What I’ve heard is they would ditch the effort to make Cam a passer & have him grind out first downs for 2 years.; the rumors are relentless, some sources better than others. 

 

Will they run Cam more than Turner did or not 🤷‍♂️

[volsmet]

On 4/16/2020 at 7:21 PM, volsmet said:

He is only the 2nd for me, most of the time they look gifted but there are hundreds of gifted kids ... Lawrence & Williams are in a category of their own, for me; I tend not to care too much about what a prospect looks like in HS, but every once in awhile you see something that’s distinctly different than the other thousand top rated HS QBs. 

People are starting to see it. Caleb is in a league of his own.

 

Go to a Gonzaga game, watch a future #1 overall pick.

[Going Commando]

On 6/14/2020 at 2:56 PM, Fresh8686 said:

I like the potential and schematic fit of this draft class, given the capital we had to work with and for once we have a unified direction as a team and coaching staff that also includes manufacturing uncertainty with motions and disguises that will keep other teams from teeing off on us all the damn time. 

 

Great post.  It really makes a huge difference when your coaching staff is good and has a vision and your personnel people are on the same page with them.  Unity of leadership makes it easier to pick guys who fit and creates the first level for building a winning culture.

 

I'm hoping that we can find homes for a lot of our old talent.  We didn't have a ton, but we had some.  Guys like Jonathan Allen, Ryan Anderson, and Landon Collins can all play like studs when immersed in great culture.  It would be a shame for them to get lost in a regime change just as we're starting to build a coherent culture.  That's particularly true for Haskins too.

[Fresh8686]

5 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Great post.  It really makes a huge difference when your coaching staff is good and has a vision and your personnel people are on the same page with them.  Unity of leadership makes it easier to pick guys who fit and creates the first level for building a winning culture.

 

I'm hoping that we can find homes for a lot of our old talent.  We didn't have a ton, but we had some.  Guys like Jonathan Allen, Ryan Anderson, and Landon Collins can all play like studs when immersed in great culture.  It would be a shame for them to get lost in a regime change just as we're starting to build a coherent culture.  That's particularly true for Haskins too.

 

Thanks and yup, I agree on all those counts. There is so much potential synergy that just isn't quantifiable for most people that can bear fruit when a focused, principled, and coherent culture is in place on all levels of a team. We haven't had anything anything like that in DC since the OG Gibbs days.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

On 6/17/2020 at 4:56 PM, Anselmheifer said:

I think I'm still not convinced that Ja'Marr Chase is an instant star in the NFL. I'm attaching a video of his game vs CJ Henderson below. Chase has one deep TD in which Henderson gets picked and has no chance and there is no safety over the top. That was good play design and Chase basically did nothing special on that play. Outside that play, Chase didn't look like he could get separation. If I had only watched that game, I'd say that Henderson was the better NFL prospect than Ja'Marr Chase. I know Chase had some big games. But, he was playing on a once in a lifetime offensive team. So much talent and such a perfect coordinator for that talent. I really think Chase could fall back to earth this year and get selected in the teens. 

 

 

Crazy time for me at work so I've been too busy to watch prospects.  But i'll get to it soon.  I've been touting Ja'Marr Chase along with Devonta Smith (albeit the dude needs more girth) based on watching my share of LSU and Alabama games in real time.  But I got to get to just watch them and study them.  Based on the games I watched in real time on TV and in Smith's case some in person, I think both are potentially going to be really good in the NFL.  But my mind might change once i study them.

 

[Anselmheifer]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Crazy time for me at work so I've been too busy to watch prospects.  But i'll get to it soon.  I've been touting Ja'Marr Chase along with Devonta Smith (albeit the dude needs more girth) based on watching my share of LSU and Alabama games in real time.  But I got to get to just watch them and study them.  Based on the games I watched in real time on TV and in Smith's case some in person, I think both are potentially going to be really good in the NFL.  But my mind might change once i study them.

 

to be clear, I like both. I think they both may be great. I just don’t see Chase as a cant miss top 5 prospect. I don’t think he’s a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones. And if you held my feet to the fire, I’d rather have Jerry Jeudy, who is always going to be able to separate. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

to be clear, I like both. I think they both may be great. I just don’t see Chase as a cant miss top 5 prospect. I don’t think he’s a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones. And if you held my feet to the fire, I’d rather have Jerry Jeudy, who is always going to be able to separate. 

 

Calvin is in his own orbit, Jones, too.  As I mentioned, I haven't really studied Chase closely yet so my mind might change.  i have studied Jeudy and I like him.  From what I've seen thus far I'd take Chase over Jeudy.  But again my mind might change.

 

In some of the big Alabama games it was Devonta Smith over the other two ballyhooed Alabama who was often their go to receiver.  IMO he has better hands than both Jeudy and Ruggs.  But man, seeing him up close in the Citrus Bowl, I had tickets close to the Alabama sidelines, the dude looked thin as a rail.  Reminded me on that front like Paul Richardson.  

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

42 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

In some of the big Alabama games it was Devonta Smith over the other two ballyhooed Alabama who was often their go to receiver.  IMO he has better hands than both Jeudy and Ruggs.  But man, seeing him up close in the Citrus Bowl, I had tickets close to the Alabama sidelines, the dude looked thin as a rail.  Reminded me on that front like Paul Richardson.  

 

 

Paul Richardson was never a Devonta Smith. Smith is really good. And I agree, he was often superficially the best WR on the field for Alabama. Part of that is probably that Jeudy and Ruggs  were drawing more coverage attention. but Smith can separate and get open deep and has great hands. He’s been durable, so the size doesn’t bother me on that front. I just worry about him with more aggressive and physical NFL corners. Can he beat press coverage? If he can’t handle that physicality and get a clean release at the LOS, it would be suboptimal for the skins to draft him and need to play him in the slot. We have an impact a lot receiver. We need a legitimate outside threat across from Terry. 

[Anselmheifer]

Does anyone else here think we may have been better off moving up a little bit for Denzel Mims, instead of taking Antonio Gibson? I think there is a good chance that in hindsight, that would have been a better move. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

5 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Does anyone else here think we may have been better off moving up a little bit for Denzel Mims, instead of taking Antonio Gibson? I think there is a good chance that in hindsight, that would have been a better move. 

 

I really wanted Mims, so I'm inclined to agree with you.  I'm worried that eventually Adam Trautman will be a pretty good TE.  We had an opportunity to grab him, or trade up without too much cost.  Quality TE's that can actually block and run routes seem rare.

 

Back to Mims though.  What would be the cost to trade up for him?  Mims instead of Gibson and Saahdiq Charles?  

 

 

[PartyPosse]

4 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Back to Mims though.  What would be the cost to trade up for him?  Mims instead of Gibson and Saahdiq Charles?  

I think it would have cost a 4th next year. I wouldn’t have given anything else to move up 7 spots and would have had to trade with Minny (who picked in front of jets). Would have been weird to trade with them without Trent being a part of the deal. SO you may have been able to do it for Trent and our third for 58 and a later pick.

[Going Commando]

Harrison Bryant is the TE I was sad to miss out on, but I could see Saahdiq Charles being good enough to be the better pick for us.

 

We could have used Bryant way more than the Browns can.

 

IMO, going a bit late at WR was the right way to play that draft class.  Aside from Tee Higgins, I don't think there are huge gaps between the guys who got picked in rounds 2-5.  Gandy-Golden's skill set is the kind of thing that goes higher in a normal year--6'4, high end vertical threat, special hands.  We got a bargain there. 

 

The RB class is what ended up being crazy, from CEH going round one, to Cam Akers and AJ Dillon going round two, to guys like KeShawn Vaughn and Darrynton Evans as well as the hybrid guys like Gibson and Bowden going in round three.  Better drafting teams than us also reached for RBs according to where these guys were being mocked.  I think it's more likely that the running back class was slept on, and that draftniks have been systematically undervaluing RBs and that the actual NFL people put higher draft value on the position.

[Skinsinparadise]

14 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I really wanted Mims, so I'm inclined to agree with you.  I'm worried that eventually Adam Trautman will be a pretty good TE.  We had an opportunity to grab him, or trade up without too much cost.  Quality TE's that can actually block and run routes seem rare.

 

Back to Mims though.  What would be the cost to trade up for him?  Mims instead of Gibson and Saahdiq Charles?  

 

 

 

I like Mims, too, the dude blocked like Pierre Garcon.  But Trautman to me stings more -- clear as a bell reading the tea leaves that when Kyle Smith said they had their eye on a TE but was taken just before their pick, and he was referring to the same round where Trautman was taken just a number of picks before them.  99% chance he was talking about Trautman.  Standig also said he knows they liked Trautman.

 

It's a good draft coming up though for TE.  But Trautman was my favorite TE in that last draft.  He's not the most explosive of the bunch but the most well rounded, the dude can block IMO.  Sean Payton typically knows what he's doing as for getting talent on the offensive side of the ball so them liking Trautman is the kicker for me.

 

 

https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/saints-see-dayton-adam-trautman-dominant-player/A5THhu5a73ekja68ZQNwbJ/

 

New Orleans liked tight end so much it gave up four picks to get him

The New Orleans Saints gave up a lot to draft Dayton Flyers tight end Adam Trautman in the third round Friday — all their remaining picks at the time, in fact. That’s how much they believed in him

 

Saints head coach Sean Payton called Trautman a true Y tight end, a player with the size to block as well as receive

“For a small-college player we feel he has really good in-line strength,” Payton told reporters. “He’s also someone that we think has real good hips. His change of direction, you can see that in how he sets up his routes. For someone who played at a smaller level, you see a dominant player.”

[Burgold]

14 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

I think it would have cost a 4th next year. I wouldn’t have given anything else to move up 7 spots and would have had to trade with Minny (who picked in front of jets). Would have been weird to trade with them without Trent being a part of the deal. SO you may have been able to do it for Trent and our third for 58 and a later pick.

As nice as it would be to have a tight end with potential, we were desperate at LT. Charles, if he can keep his head right, has the potential to be very good. Give me a very good left tackle over a good tight end or even a very good tight end any day of the week.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Athletic TE's that block and can run routes are unicorns.  Only a handful exist at any one time.

 

Trautman physically has it all.  Based on senior bowl and college tape he profiles as one of those unicorns.

 

Most drafts (imo) have only one TE who can maybe become that unicorn.

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

16 minutes ago, Burgold said:

As nice as it would be to have a tight end with potential, we were desperate at LT. Charles, if he can keep his head right, has the potential to be very good. Give me a very good left tackle over a good tight end or even a very good tight end any day of the week.

 

In my opinion, I think you're not appreciating what TE's that can actually block and run routes contribute to an offense.  Gronk, Kittle, Kelce, Gates, etc are worth more than a very good left tackle.

 

They put defensive personnel and packages in a bind.  Linebacker, safety, corner, who covers them on 1st down?  What about 3rd and short?  It's a mismatch.

 

If the run play is going opposite the OT, you don't care about them as much.  Get someone backside to contain a cutback and you're good.  If the run play is going opposite the TE, you better still account for him.

 

OL play is more than just one guy, it's all 5 working as a unit.  If the LG blows next to a good LT, then the left side is still weak.  OT's are worth more than Guard's by the nature of controlling the Edge on passing plays.  But we put too much value into one OL in comparison to the whole.

 

Tyron Smith didn't really improve Dallas's OL until they got a better LG, and a great C.  Then getting a great RG put them over the top.

 

Trent Williams being elite didn't drag up the rest of the lackluster OL.  2012 and 2013 OL couldn't do much without the threat of RG3's 4.3 speed.

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

The vast majority of the heavy lifting for run blocking is handled by the OL.  A lot of TE blocking on the outside comes down to getting in the way to cut off backside pursuit from the backfield, or just creating a brief crease rather than planting a tough contain defender or driving him way off the ball.  Blocking is a much, much less valuable skill for TEs than receiving, as an elite receiver at the TE position opens up your offense way more.  That's why I thought Harrison Bryant was the best TE in that class.

[PartyPosse]

It seems TE is the position where you can find legit talent later on. Only 1 of the top 5 TE was drafted before the 3rd.

[Skinsinparadise]

One of the dudes I liked back during that draft.  Too bad Allen and Payne haven't at least yet really shown that they are A level D lineman.  Maybe B plus but neither one has shown to be special, yet.

 

I'd say the really weird thing about the last 20 years is we really struggle to find elite talent in the draft.  I think Chase changes that and maybe by extension helps Payne and Allen reach another level of play.

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

The vast majority of the heavy lifting for run blocking is handled by the OL.  A lot of TE blocking on the outside comes down to getting in the way to cut off backside pursuit from the backfield, or just creating a brief crease rather than planting a tough contain defender or driving him way off the ball.  Blocking is a much, much less valuable skill for TEs than receiving, as an elite receiver at the TE position opens up your offense way more.  That's why I thought Harrison Bryant was the best TE in that class.

 

I somewhat agree.  I'd take a pass catcher first, too.  But what got my attention some was 2 years ago I spent a lot of time rewatching our blocking schemes on coaches film.  Jay's offense relied quite a bit on the TE to block the DE on the edge.  With their power blocking often they'd have 2 O lineman double team a guard (duo system) and leave the TE as a key blocker to seal the edge.  And you can see both Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis really struggled with it.  Worse yet, they looked lazy doing it.  And they'd be responsible for some pressure on the QB and more likely allowing the DE to crash off the edge and stop the run.   It's part of the reason why in recent off seasons I gave college TE prospects props for being willing blockers because I didn't find Davis or Reed to be willingly. 

 

I also think (Belichick touts this a lot) having a TE who can do it all helps keep your opponent off track a bit easier because they have a harder time guessing what you are going to do based on personnel.  Cooley one off season charted it and said you can guess with about 80% accuracy pass versus run based on what TE was in the game.   Gruden actually whined about this some in the previous off season about their one dimensional TEs telegraphed the offense too much.  Yet they ultimately did hardly anything to upgrade that spot this off season.  But you can't build Rome in a day. 

[wilco_holland]

With all these Caroline FO guys  should we analyze there draft classes to predict our future once?