Election 2019 - D's take VA. Bevin takes L.

[PleaseBlitz]

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

I'm confused, arent Dems in control of House right now, and partly due to the GOP losses in the suburbs? 

 

They are.  I'd like for them to stay in control.  Alternatively (or in addition), I'd like for Dems and the GOP to come to an agreement that gerrymandering is fundamentally bad and harms each equally.  Right now, 8 of the 10 most gerrymandered states favor Republicans.  So long as one party has that advantage, there will be no agreement. 

 

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

I'm convinced we're going to start seeing ruby red states get dem senators because of this in our lifetime, rural areas are dominated by the only racial group in the US that's declining in population in an era where more people in cities then rural for first time in human history.  The target model for the modern GOP is completely unsubstainable, this isnt jus corruption, its desperation.

 

I believe theres some truth the game being so rigged in GOP favor that any attempts to resolve it will favor Democrats in some case.  I'd say "is what it is" on that one, have to start somewhere, they brought it in themselves. 

 

"In our lifetime" is not a time frame that I'm comfortable with waiting on.  In any event, the GOP will shift gears as soon as Trump is out of the picture, people will quickly forget their craven transgressions, and we'll go back to "regular" George W Bush style conservatism.  Meantime, most of the states that are currently gerrymandered in favor of the GOP will stay that way and we'll be back to Dems winning the nationwide popular vote by 9% and still not gaining the majority.  

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

The Senate and the Electoral College are both anti-urban concepts that will hurt the Dems for the foreseeable future. But that's an issue that has to be addressed on a Constitutional level and is - thus - almost impossible to resolve in the near term.

 

The House will work itself out if you just draw the maps fairly across the country - which can be done via normal legal/political mechanisms.

 

 

Agreed on the bolded.  I've seen the program some states have signed on to saying they would give their electoral college votes to the overall popular vote winner once enough bought in.  Ive been waiting to see if that gets challenged in the supreme court as unconstitutional, but I dont think it is, states are allowed to decide how they allocate electoral college votes, right?

 

https://ballotpedia.org/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

[PleaseBlitz]

7 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Agreed on the bolded.  I've seen the program some states have signed on to saying they would give their electoral college votes to the overall popular vote winner once enough bought in.  Ive been waiting to see if that gets challenged in the supreme court as unconstitutional, but I dont think it is, states are allowed to decide how they allocate electoral college votes, right?

 

https://ballotpedia.org/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

 

Likely yes on the constitutionality issue.  Practically speaking, it still needs, I think, states representing 86 more electoral votes.  

 

Edit:  It's down to 74.  

[Renegade7]

3 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

They are.  I'd like for them to stay in control.  Alternatively (or in addition), I'd like for Dems and the GOP to come to an agreement that gerrymandering is fundamentally bad and harms each equally.  Right now, 8 of the 10 most gerrymandered states favor Republicans.  So long as one party has that advantage, there will be no agreement. 

 

 

"In our lifetime" is not a time frame that I'm comfortable with waiting on.  In any event, the GOP will shift gears as soon as Trump is out of the picture, people will quickly forget their craven transgressions, and we'll go back to "regular" George W Bush style conservatism.  Meantime, most of the states that are currently gerrymandered in favor of the GOP will stay that way and we'll be back to Dems winning the nationwide popular vote by 9% and still not gaining the majority.  

 

Fair on "lifetime",  but whoa buddy on hoping for W style conservatism.  It's almost like Trump was so bad we forgot how terrible W republicans were, an endless war, surrender on budget balancing, and nearly collapsing the global economy is a big turn off for many people as well. Seems like only yesterday he was the worst presidency we ever had, now its jus better then this.

 

If the GOP completely turns itself around and actually becomes a conservative party, that's probably the counterbalance we need to keep the country from sliding too far to the left.

 

I think what you want is the pandering to racism and outright corruption to stop when Trump leaves.  I dont believe it will happen overnight, I'd be happy if that ended in my lifetime, but not holding my breath.

[PleaseBlitz]

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

Fair on "lifetime",  but whoa buddy on hoping for W style conservatism.  It's almost like Trump was so bad we forgot how terrible W republicans were, an endless war, surrender on budget balancing, and nearly collapsing the global economy is a big turn off for many people as well. Seems like only yesterday he was the worst presidency we ever had, now its jus better then this.

 

At no point did i say i was "hoping" for that.  I said that is what is likely to happen.  The other option is another Trump-like demagogue emerges for the right/far right/alt-right/QAnon people to worship. In any event, they'll most be driven by hatred for the left, which will be enough to allow the GOP to rebound quickly. 

 

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

If the GOP completely turns itself around and actually becomes a conservative party, that's probably the counterbalance we need to keep the country from sliding too far to the left.

 

I think what you want is the pandering to racism and outright corruption to stop when Trump leaves.  I dont believe it will happen overnight, I'd be happy if that ended in my lifetime, but not holding my breath.

 

Agree.

 

[Larry]

15 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Right now, 8 of the 10 most gerrymandered states favor Republicans.

 

My gut says that's an opinion (or an agenda) masquerading as a statistic.  

[PleaseBlitz]

1 minute ago, Larry said:

 

My gut says that's an opinion (or an agenda) masquerading as a statistic.  

 

Did you click the link?

[Larry]

3 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Did you click the link?

 

Didn't see a link.  

 

Note to mods:  Can we PLEASE get the board to display links more clearly?  I've been bolding all of my links, for months, to try to make it easier for people to see them.  I assume that it would be a simple matter of changing the style sheet to select a different color/highlight/font for links.  (But I'm sure there's others who know more.)  

 

[PleaseBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Didn't see a link.  

 

Note to mods:  Can we PLEASE get the board to display links more clearly?  I've been bolding all of my links, for months, to try to make it easier for people to see them.  I assume that it would be a simple matter of changing the style sheet to select a different color/highlight/font for links.  (But I'm sure there's others who know more.)  

 

 

LOL, it was hyperlinked.  Here you go.  https://rantt.com/the-top-10-most-gerrymandered-states-in-america

 

I also miscounted.  It's 9 out of 10, with MD being the lone D state.  I guess the caveat would be that it's a bit outdated, as PA was ordered by a court to redraw the map.  

[DCSaints_fan]

6 hours ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

  

It's not a wrong at this point. It's the law. And it has MASSIVE impacts on control of Congress at the Federal level. 

 

Then how did Democrats take over the House in 2018?

 

I favor switching to a hybrid system that partially does away with districts.  In this system you would not vote for a particular repsentative, but for a party.  You would take the statewide count and then divide the seats based on party.  There could still be districts which could be drawn based on geography and not politics since it would not affect the seat count.  Or the parties could defined their own districts which may overlap.  Every vote would count the same. This also would allow third party representation which is now diluted across the districts.  Kind of like what Germany does.  Not sure it would ever pass though.

[bearrock]

2 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

Then how did Democrats take over the House in 2018?

 

I favor switching to a hybrid system that partially does away with districts.  You would take the statewide count and then divide the seats based on party.  There could still be districts which could be drawn based on geography and not politics since it would not affect the seat count.  Every vote would count the same. This also would allow third party representation which is now diluted across the districts.  Kind of like what Germany does.  Not sure it would ever pass though.

 

In a pure theoretical sense, I do think there's something to be said for local representation.  For example, issues that should concern a Rep from Northern Virginia suburbs is not the same as central or south Virginia.

 

In practice, I agree that it has turned into a **** show.

[PleaseBlitz]

6 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Then how did Democrats take over the House in 2018?

 

By getting a lot more votes than it should have taken if the districts were drawn fairly.  

 

Nationwide, Democrats got 60.3 million votes.  Republicans got 50.4 million votes.  

[LadySkinsFan]

The trend is more population shifts from rural to urban, suburban, and exurban centers that mostly vote majority Democrat are now larger than the rural areas that mostly vote majority Republican. MSNBC had maps Monday night that showed this shift. 

[PleaseBlitz]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-gov-northam-starts-making-plans-for-his-new-democratic-legislature/2019/11/06/28f6656e-00b7-11ea-8bab-0fc209e065a8_story.html

 

Va. Gov. Northam starts making plans for his new Democratic legislature

 

Quote

RICHMOND — Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) used a Cabinet meeting Wednesday to showcase all he expects to get done with a state government under Democratic control for the first time in a generation.

 

Northam, still buoyant after his party wrested control of the General Assembly from Republicans on Tuesday, assembled his team in a ceremonial meeting room in the State Capitol, instead of the workaday Patrick Henry Building, where they typically meet.

 

“Virginia spoke and we’re going to listen and we’re going to take action,” said Northam, who is halfway through is four-year term.

 

Republicans woke to a blue Virginia on Wednesday

 

For nearly an hour, Northam called on various Cabinet secretaries to talk about their agendas for the Democratic legislature that will convene in January. They offered plans that included tightening gun laws and expanding prekindergarten programs, with Finance Secretary Aubrey Layne putting in a plug for maintaining the state’s practice of living within its means.

 

For the most part, it was a sober-minded rejoinder to the image Republicans have tried to paint of the coming takeover by “radical” Democrats, if not “socialists.” But there were still flashes of excitement. Brian Moran, secretary of public safety and homeland security, was the most effusive.

 

“Wow,” he said, referring to the election results, when the governor called on him. “Thank you. Congratulations. It’s very exciting. We’re all going to be very busy, but in a very good way.”

 

[visionary]

I hope people aren't overestimating how much the dems in Virginia will be able to do with the slim margins they have. 

I would think it likely that at least some of the dems would side with the gop on some of the important issues.

Of course just being in charge of the house and senate will open up a lot of possibilities and allow them to move things forward, but it's when it comes to voting that I'd be a bit more cautious with expectations.  

[MartinC]

3 hours ago, No Excuses said:

Can’t hold yourself accountable for actions of others. White identity politics is a phenomena stronger than any one person.

True. 

[No Excuses]

30 minutes ago, visionary said:

I hope people aren't overestimating how much the dems in Virginia will be able to do with the slim margins they have. 

I would think it likely that at least some of the dems would side with the gop on some of the important issues.

Of course just being in charge of the house and senate will open up a lot of possibilities and allow them to move things forward, but it's when it comes to voting that I'd be a bit more cautious with expectations.  
 

 

 

Dems won areas that have long been trending their way, especially with new fairly drawn districts. They will govern as liberals without much fear of GOP pushback. If anything the few GOPers who barely won in left trending districts should get to work on becoming the faux Democrats they pretended to be. 

[visionary]

Just now, No Excuses said:

Dems won areas that have long been trending their way. They will govern as liberals without much fear of GOP pushback. If anything the few GOPers who barely won in left trending districts should get to work on becoming the faux Democrats they pretended to be. 

I hope you're right.  We've seen how hard it is to get everyone in line for a vote in congress. 

[tshile]

2 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

In any event, the GOP will shift gears as soon as Trump is out of the picture, people will quickly forget their craven transgressions, and we'll go back to "regular" George W Bush style conservatism.

This is probably the least realized/discussed aspect of the trump era

 

I mean we can sit around and say “you’ll never live that one down” but 1 election cycle later it’ll be like it never happened

 

(assuming he’s not embroiled in years worth of public investigations after leaving office)

12 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

 

Dems won areas that have long been trending their way, especially with new fairly drawn districts. They will govern as liberals without much fear of GOP pushback. If anything the few GOPers who barely won in left trending districts should get to work on becoming the faux Democrats they pretended to be. 

Fairfax county will have 0 republican reps in the state or Senate. 
 

I think gun control is a huge drive I’ve not heard discussed much. 

 

turnout was remarkably high in areas that are the heavy D supporters

 

this wasn’t an “anti trump” result this was an “anti republican” result and in ways that go beyond the trump era. 
 

 We’re in the middle of watching Virginia moving solid blue for the foreseeable future. 

[bearrock]

14 minutes ago, tshile said:

I think gun control is a huge drive I’ve not heard discussed much. 

 

 

 

Second this.  I have school aged kids so my exposure may be overly skewed, but seems like lot of suburbia is really driven by this.  Fairly or unfairly, lot of the people I talked to viewed the GOP as unable/unwilling to do anything on gun control.  To many, if not most, of the people in my community and water cooler, that just wasn't acceptable.

[visionary]

 

 

 

[visionary]

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

Foreign born voters otherwise known as Americans.

[PleaseBlitz]

I mean, it's definitely due to demographic changes, just not the way she thinks/implies.

 

A TON of people have moved to NoVa in the past 25 years.  I think Loudoun County (where I grew up) was the fastest growing county in America for like a 10 year period.  A lot of that is/was white and non-white people with a higher education that came to work for the government, or to participate in NoVa's IT industry, which is huge, or people that came to provide services for those people.  60% of Virginia's growth is in NoVa, which is like 1/8 of the state by area.  They overwhelming vote Democrat (because they aren't morons that listen to Laura Ingraham's nonsense).  

[superozman]

14 hours ago, visionary said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sadly, my county for the first time since the Civil War has turned 'left'.  But it really goes to show the Trump effect I believe.  He really has motivated Dem voters, IMO.  Our county has been GOP run since the Civil War.  This is the first time it flipped - you can do all the analysis you want, but before the election there were 30K more registered Dems than GOP voters, with 50K not declared.  So I can see why.