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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


Going Commando

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9 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

It's funny to me how much Haskins has dropped out of conversation when Murray and Haskins are likely to go in the same draft range. Haskins' stats were similarly superlative. He has ideal size, a bigger arm, played against tougher competition, and, in a pro-style offense. After watching Tua lay eggs against Georgia and Clemson, I might take Haskins over Tua. And, I would definitely take him over Fromm. 

 

I honestly worry that Murray is just too small. I know Murray is accurate and has a solid arm. I know that Oklahoma has a big OL. I just think there is a reason that no QB his size has ever been successful in the NFL. Ever. I don't think the size issue is overstated. I think it is understated. Tons of fans and pundits are enthusiastically giving Murray the benefit of the doubt, but there is absolutely NO HISTORICAL PRECEDENT for a QB Murray's size. None. Ever.  If we were talking about taking a first round OT smaller than any OT to ever start in the league, it would also give me pause. I don't care how good your feet and power are. OT's need bulk and length for a reason.


Also, I am not reassured by Murray's performance against Alabama. If he is talented enough to overcome his size deficit in the NFL, why did he look so average when given the chance to shine against an NFL quality defense? Alabama isn't insurmountable. Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence both have looked great against Alabama. And Murray had a very good surrounding cast. He had a solid OL and possible top 20 picks both on the OL and at WR. 

 

I thought Tua was nice v Clemson, the play calling was atrocious in the red zone, but he made some throws no one else makes. It’s not possible to make any semblance of a decent argument that Haskins was better v PSU, MSU, and probably not Nebraska than Tua was v Clemson. 

 

I think the Murray hype is at a high right now because he’s newer to the discussion, Haskins was in the same position not long ago, he’s still the top QB on nearly every experts board. 

 

Haskins looked like absolute garbage with a bit of regularity.

 

 

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15 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Appreciate the complement.  And my point isn't about the Kiper types.   I do think one advantage those types have is most of them can pick the brains of scouts.  I am learning a lot of these mock drafts are driven by scuttlebutt these guys hear from sources around the league.  But the top personnel guys I think really know their stuff.  I recall the one time I was in front of Scot, I threw a bunch of college players at him and he had answers about all of them most of whom he scouted in person.   And this was in November months before the draft. 

 

 

 

 

 

Sources are a major benefit, you will see which guys are suddenly moving up, for no reason - those are from sources with nfl teams, some honest, others not - but when 5 teams hint at something, it’s real. Sources leak more when the higher ups aren’t going to listen & they want a record of who they were high on. People have their notebooks, but Kiper will tell a GM which scout had which guy first & highest. That’s the game. But, scouts don’t break down Xs and Os on corners, lbs, des, ss, rbs, WRs, or even QBs. It’s one v one, corners athletic ability = scheme fit, and QBs need what you think they need, it’s rarely complicated.

 

The interview process is important but no experts on Twitter take part in that, what teammates & coaches tell you is important but that’s rarely leaked...the interviews are about risk, there were things said about Guice that aren’t public, it’s a complicated process when you get down to psychology.

 

The guys like Scot & Bruce are the top of the top, I’ll take them over the ES, but not the twitter experts, or many scouts...go to the sr bowl & you’re a scout, you could seriously do this professionally if you want. Some don’t like Polian, but my cousin worked with him for about a decade, he was great with scouting, but better at surrounding himself with people he trusted & being willing to listen. Humility is the most incredible trait a guy with that power can have...most think he’s an arrogant guy, but he’s not.

 

Look at how much you’ve authored. You have it in your blood, you’re a brilliant guy, you could do this for a living if you had the desire, but I have a feeling you’re pretty well off as is. I respect Ledyard & those guys on some level simply because you do - I trust that you put thought into what you share & if those sources have proven enough to you, I trust that — I just don’t like to see gifted people shortchange themselves. 

 

Heck, look at all you’ve committed to memory & are able to cite in an instant, it’s impressive. You’re impressive, my friend. 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

I thought Tua was nice v Clemson, the play calling was atrocious in the red zone, but he made some throws no one else makes. It’s not possible to make any semblance of a decent argument that Haskins was better v PSU, MSU, and probably not Nebraska than Tua was v Clemson. 

 

I think the Murray hype is at a high right now because he’s newer to the discussion, Haskins was in the same position not long ago, he’s still the top QB on nearly every experts board. 

 

Haskins looked like absolute garbage with a bit of regularity.

 

 

I think Haskins also benefits, at least in my mind, from looking better as the year progressed. He was a one year starter, has prototypical physical traits, and had his best games at the end of the year, against solid competition. In any case, I don't fancy myself a QB guru. I never would have predicted Mahommes. I didn't predict Watson. I probably won't predict the next solid QB. Maybe it IS Murray. The only thing I am sure about, with regards to the QB's in this draft, is that Jones sucks.

 

I don't even remember if this post was from this threat or the QB 2019 thread, but someone posted a statistical analysis of the last 38 QB's drafted to throw over 300 NFL passes, a stat that is already going to exclude all of the outright draft misses/failures, and when looking at their stats, none of those players exceeded their collegiate statistical success during the first 4 years in the NFL. The point being, that lots of collegiate QB's post great stats and don't make it in the NFL, but that no recent QB's have posted poor collegiate stats and then succeeded in the NFL. Your college stats are your ceiling. 


All of which is to say, Daniel Jones sucks. His college stats suck. His arm...sucks. His accuracy beyond 10 yards is not good. Pick any measure. Completion percentage. Yards per attempt. TD. Yards. TD:INT ratio. Jones does not have the stats to suggest that he will be a success and he absolutely does not have the physical traits to suggest that he has the physical talent and just needs some coaching to shine brighter than he did in the NCAA. In fact, he reportedly has one of the best college QB coaches ever. Daniel Jones is going to be a wasted pick for someone. I feel much more confident about that than I do about any player in this draft, at any position, succeeding in the NFL. 

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6 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I think Haskins also benefits, at least in my mind, from looking better as the year progressed. He was a one year starter, has prototypical physical traits, and had his best games at the end of the year, against solid competition. In any case, I don't fancy myself a QB guru. I never would have predicted Mahommes. I didn't predict Watson. I probably won't predict the next solid QB. Maybe it IS Murray. The only thing I am sure about, with regards to the QB's in this draft, is that Jones sucks.

 

I don't even remember if this post was from this threat or the QB 2019 thread, but someone posted a statistical analysis of the last 38 QB's drafted to throw over 300 NFL passes, a stat that is already going to exclude all of the outright draft misses/failures, and when looking at their stats, none of those players exceeded their collegiate statistical success during the first 4 years in the NFL. The point being, that lots of collegiate QB's post great stats and don't make it in the NFL, but that no recent QB's have posted poor collegiate stats and then succeeded in the NFL. Your college stats are your ceiling. 


All of which is to say, Daniel Jones sucks. His college stats suck. His arm...sucks. His accuracy beyond 10 yards is not good. Pick any measure. Completion percentage. Yards per attempt. TD. Yards. TD:INT ratio. Jones does not have the stats to suggest that he will be a success and he absolutely does not have the physical traits to suggest that he has the physical talent and just needs some coaching to shine brighter than he did in the NCAA. In fact, he reportedly has one of the best college QB coaches ever. Daniel Jones is going to be a wasted pick for someone. I feel much more confident about that than I do about any player in this draft, at any position, succeeding in the NFL. 

 

Haskins v Washington was a tough one for me, he looked solid early, but the 2nd half was brutal. The Michigan game was brilliant, but was that scheme, Haskins, or a combination — I know Michigan is stubborn with their man to man & the OSU speed just obliterated them on crossing routes every time I looked up. I didn’t see the Northwestern game, but NW doesn’t recruit in the top 50; that doesn’t mean the tape is meaningless, I just couldn’t watch it, the big ten desperately needs to realign.

 

The best in the world let Mahomes & Watson fall out of the top 9 in the same draft, if anyone believed either would be what they are, they’d have gone 1 or 1 & 2. What would you give now for either? GMs are losing sleep at night for missing those....but, if you watched them, you knew their talent was insane, you just recognized things that didn’t seem like they’d play in the nfl, just like 30 GMs.

 

All of which is to say, Daniel Jones sucks.

RSn.gif

 

I didn’t anticipate that. If you’re looking hard to figure out what you’re missing, you’re probably not missing anything. Jones seems a bit like that kind of guy.

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Volsmet, a few pages back, you posted a bunch of Jonathan Abram videos. I really enjoyed those. Even just watching his highlight videos, you can tell he doesn't have great ball skills. He drops some easy interceptions. That being said, his playing speed is elite. His run support is elite. He flies to the ball in run support. He's going to be a tone setter on defense in terms of bringing physicality and attitude. And, despite not being very natural catching the ball, I actually think his coverage skills are very good. I wouldn't play him as a single high safety, but I think that beyond that, he is going to be a very good defender for a long time in the NFL. 

 

Defense is such a strength in this draft and it looks like multiple blue chippers could fall to our pick. I wish we were in a position to take advantage. 

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11 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Volsmet, a few pages back, you posted a bunch of Jonathan Abram videos. I really enjoyed those. Even just watching his highlight videos, you can tell he doesn't have great ball skills. He drops some easy interceptions. That being said, his playing speed is elite. His run support is elite. He flies to the ball in run support. He's going to be a tone setter on defense in terms of bringing physicality and attitude. And, despite not being very natural catching the ball, I actually think his coverage skills are very good. I wouldn't play him as a single high safety, but I think that beyond that, he is going to be a very good defender for a long time in the NFL. 

 

Defense is such a strength in this draft and it looks like multiple blue chippers could fall to our pick. I wish we were in a position to take advantage. 

 

Could be a Carlos Rogers-like vision issue, I believe he had eye surgery after leaving Washington and his drops became a non-issue. Some say Abram isn’t a great athlete, I’m especially interested in his combine numbers, he’s rarely mentioned but, from what I’ve seen, brings everything I hope for in a safety. Abram, Foster, Payne/Allen/Ion could give us a relatively intimidating middle of the field. 

 

I saw what you did, he looked natural on every level. Bob Shoop praises him non stop for his ability on the field & all he brings off of it. Abram will crush the interview/whiteboard process.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

Could be a Carlos Rogers-like vision issue, I believe he had eye surgery after leaving Washington and his drops became a non-issue. Some say Abram isn’t a great athlete, I’m especially interested in his combine numbers, he’s rarely mentioned but, from what I’ve seen, brings everything I hope for in a safety. Abram, Foster, Payne/Allen/Ion could give us a relatively intimidating middle of the field. 

 

I saw what you did, he looked natural on every level. Bob Shoop praises him non stop for his ability on the field & all he brings off of it. Abram will crush the interview/whiteboard process.

 

 

It wouldn't worry me if he timed a little slow. When you watch him play, he looks like the fastest guy on the field. I know it's a different position, but Michael Thomas didn't time particularly well at the combine. Some guys just play fast. I also think Byron Murphy won't post an elite 40, but I still really like him. Tough, smart, hard nosed player. Great hips. Great hands. Great nose for the ball. I could see him winding up in NE if he drops a little, and being a stud there. 

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Give me Minshew all day long in the 5th round to develop! Get Nick Foles in FA to play now.

 

5 round Mock

 

1st round- T.J. Hockenson TE Iowa.

2nd round- Best Guard available.

3rd round- Christian Miller OLB Bama.

3rd round (comp pick)- Best CB available.

5th round- GARDNER MINSHEW!!!!!! QB Washington State.

 

- Get Landon Collins in FA as well, and all of a sudden we are looking like a solid team. 

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I kind of get why Grier is a polarizing prospect.  

@Skinsinparadise - it’s interesting looking at a lot of the info you’ve provided:

The metrics to highlight Murray had Grier in second in most areas

The info from Arians - importance of accuracy, anticipation, and going through reads

 

... and then to read Ledyard and Jeremiah’s take.  Ledyard says no red flags for Grier and talks positively about his anticipation and accuracy.  He dings Grier a bit for relying on pre-snap reads, but then on the other hand, Jeremiah talks about how surprised he was about WV’s offensive complexity and how often Grier was going though full field reads.  

 

I’ll be really curious to see how teams rate him.  

 

@volsmetI really don’t see significant issue with the gifs you posted.  Threw the bubble screen and it was poorly blocked; arm strength was only so-so.  Threw high to the sideline, but on target might have been a pick six.  Another throw to the outside but the defender broke well on the ball.  Throw to the middle (3rd read I believe) - guy was covered but he hit his receiver in the hands.  The deep sideline pass - not a good throw, though his receiver was way too tight to the sideline.  Considering his deep ball is a major strength, I’m not at all concerned about that one.  He did float the one up the sideline when he scrambled right, I’m betting he wanted that one back.  

 

Overall, if those are the worst plays from a game in which he threw 42 passes, I’ll take it.  Not gonna debate further though, you’ve obviously got a pretty strong opinion of him (though an entertaining way of doing it, lol).  

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35 minutes ago, volsmet said:

I ask of the community one thing, watch these 7 minutes v 2 star ISU. If you see any hint of an NFL prospect, so be it. 

 

Mods, don't want us to eat up space, thus I deleted the vid with this post.  You had video of Will Grier playing against Iowa St..  It was by far his worst game of the year against a 2-3 team.  Do I see any hint of a NFL prospect.  Yes.  He can be a starter for an NFL team but it will take time for him to be one.  Are you saying he doesn't belong in the NFL or isn't NFL quality?

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Somebody mentioned thorson a while ago and I liked him pretty much immediately. This qb crop has red flags almost across the board. While Thorson does too, I feel he is being undervalued by most scouts.  

 

Id take a hard look at murray if he made it to 15. Not really interested in the other qbs as I feel we can get a blue chipper elsewhere at 15. 

 

For me:

 

2012s loves: luck, Richardson, keuchly

2014 loves: khalil mack

2015 loves: Amari Cooper

2017 loves: Mahomes

2018 loves: barkley

2019 love: hockenson so far.

 

Might have to add a few more.. there is some really good talent in the top 30 imo.

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11 hours ago, skins2victory said:

 

Give me Minshew all day long in the 5th round to develop! Get Nick Foles in FA to play now.

 

5 round Mock

 

1st round- T.J. Hockenson TE Iowa.

2nd round- Best Guard available.

3rd round- Christian Miller OLB Bama.

3rd round (comp pick)- Best CB available.

5th round- GARDNER MINSHEW!!!!!! QB Washington State.

 

- Get Landon Collins in FA as well, and all of a sudden we are looking like a solid team. 

 

I got to dig into Minshew and Ta-amu both fit some metrics in some sites I've looked at that make the cut.    Both supposed to be good dudes, leaders, too. 

 

Hockenson right now remains to me my guy unless Murray falls.  Polite runner up.  At least among players projected to fall to our range.

 

I am reading the Giants will franchise Collins

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Probably got a little too aggressive with the trade-downs but I was curious to see realistically what I could get.

1.15 to NE for 2.22, 2.24 and 3.37

2.22 to Carolina for 3.13, 3.35 and 4.13

 

2.14: Irv Smith, TE Alabama

2.24: Parris Campbell, WR Ohio State

3.12: Johnathan Abran, S Miss. State

3.13: Jaylon Ferguson, Edge La. Tech

3.32: Jarrett Stidham, QB Auburn

3.35: Ryan Bates, T/G Penn State

3.37: Terrill Hanks, ILB New Mexico St.

4.13: Saivon Smith, CB Alabama

5.15: Rodney Anderson, RB Oklahoma

5.33: Preston Williams, WR Colorado State

6.32: Martez Ivey, T/G Florida

 

I kind of feel like FanSpeak is letting Murray fall farther than is realistic, so even though he was there at 15 (and ended up being drafted by Pats at 32), and TJ Hockenson was drafted, I wanted to explore the options of what I could turn 1.15 into if I were to move out of the 1st. I probably went a bit overboard with 2 trades ... but the values were there.

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18 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

 

I suppose I’ve made my point. Enough Grier for me. I need to get changed.

 

 

 

 

Do Finley now!!

 

I'm curious as to your take since I have actually changed my mind on him in the opposite direction of you. Maybe I will prompt you by saying I believe he can be an above average starting QB in the NFL (not sure if I believe that or not). 

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8 hours ago, volsmet said:

I ask of the community one thing, watch these 7 minutes v 2 star ISU. If you see any hint of an NFL prospect, so be it.

 

Did you happen to catch the 2009 Patriots-Ravens playoff game?? #12 for the Patriots threw for 154 yards and 3 INTs. He'll never make it in this league.

I think you are one of my favorite posters on this board. Very insightful and pleasant to debate with. But even in that bad game you shared, you see Grier looking off defenders and making some good throws. He had a defender in his face and was scrambling for his life a lot of the time. Even though being eaten alive with terrible protection. We aren't looking to draft the WVU offensive line, we're looking at a  QB who still managed to do the right thing a lot of the time. If you were to look again with a different mindset, do you think you might see something differently??

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8 hours ago, volsmet said:

I ask of the community one thing, watch these 7 minutes v 2 star ISU. If you see any hint of an NFL prospect, so be it. 

 

 

 

 

To be fair, you can find single games like this for Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as well. I don't like Grier but everyone can have an off day.

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8 hours ago, RWJ said:

  You had video of Will Grier playing against Iowa St..  It was by far his worst game of the year against a 2-3 team.  Do I see any hint of a NFL prospect.  Yes.  He can be a starter for an NFL team but it will take time for him to be one.  Are you saying he doesn't belong in the NFL or isn't NFL quality?

 

Yes, Mr. Turing, I am saying he wouldn’t be worth a draft pick if there were 17 rounds. Grier holds the ball forever, is clearly easy to confuse, & can’t put anything on a pass without a lot of loft. You didn’t see any hint of an nfl prospect in that game, against a team of guys nobody recruited. ISU rushed 3 because Grier can’t fit the ball into a tight window vs ISU athletes & he can’t do anything about blitzes that begin 10 yards behind the los. There is no chance he ever becomes a decent nfl player.

 

I deleted the part about mods to save bandwidth. 

 

2 hours ago, sportjunkie07 said:

Somebody mentioned thorson a while ago and I liked him pretty much immediately.

 

 

 

Absolutely.

9 minutes ago, dballer said:

 

 

Do Finley now!!

 

I'm curious as to your take since I have actually changed my mind on him in the opposite direction of you. Maybe I will prompt you by saying I believe he can be an above average starting QB in the NFL (not sure if I believe that or not). 

 

Changed your mind on Grier? That’s fascinating. I’ll check out the Fin.

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8 hours ago, RWJ said:

Mods, don't want us to eat up space, thus I deleted the vid with this post.  You had video of Will Grier playing against Iowa St..  It was by far his worst game of the year against a 2-3 team.  Do I see any hint of a NFL prospect.  Yes.  He can be a starter for an NFL team but it will take time for him to be one.  Are you saying he doesn't belong in the NFL or isn't NFL quality?

 

I think his point being, Grier will never be a starter, and there are a ton of better options for a back up rather than wasting a draft pick on him.  

4 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

 

Changed your mind on Grier? That’s fascinating. I’ll check out the Fin. 

 

Lol no not on Grier. I never have and never will want him.

 

I have changed my mind on Finley, to thinking hes probably just a solid back up to thinking he could be a good starter. 

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6 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

 

But even in that bad game you shared, you see Grier looking off defenders and making some good throws. He had a defender in his face and was scrambling for his life a lot of the time. Even though being eaten alive with terrible protection. 

 

He was rushed by 3 most of the night. I don’t see disagreement as a negative, I view it as a chance to get into more nuanced discussion. Iowa State sent some blitzes from 10+ yards & Grier just didn’t let the ball go, he couldn’t make a play, and that defense has nearly no talent. Grier took more sacks 15 yards deep than he made decent throws. ISU forced him to try and fit the ball in and he can’t, he processed everything incredibly slowly, he recognized nothing, adjusted to nothing, & as a sr couldn’t figure out how to move the ball v a team Drake didn’t struggle to move it against.

 

The games people like...the Texas game for instance, display why he’s not draftable to me, the Iowa State footage is shockingly bad. 

 

Again, I’m comfortable being wrong, it occurs with regularity. I would love to see anything people trust will translate to the NFL. Months before the draft, minds change every day. Dballers, for instance.

 

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24 minutes ago, dballer said:

 

To be fair, you can find single games like this for Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as well. I don't like Grier but everyone can have an off day.

 

Certainly, but it’s what made it so bad that would concern me as a team looking to draft Will. When Rodgers stinks, the talent is always apparent. Grier, v ISU, was lost mentally & couldn’t compensate physically. That’s vs a team of guys who run 4.8s. 

 

Take Lock v Bama, he struggled, but he made 6-8 passes that were unbelievable. To have no moments, v ISU, while the team needs you, while trailing all night - which is typically advantageous to passers - he just stood like a guy who had been drugged. I haven’t seen many draftable QBs look that bad for the duration of a game. 

 

Maybe Will was hurt, he’s played through injury before, as @skinny21 noted.

 

 

***I, will take the remainder of the day off. I enjoy this, but I can become a pain in the butt, which is a struggle I’m in constant battle with. Awareness is the key. This process is far too enjoyable, I can get too invested, & this community far too bright to pass up on the discussion for long.

 

Enjoy your Friday, gentlemen. Apologies to anyone I was dismissive of or came off as contemptuous with. Flaws, I have more than Will, even ISU Will.

 

 

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15 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Sources are a major benefit, you will see which guys are suddenly moving up, for no reason - those are from sources with nfl teams, some honest, others not - but when 5 teams hint at something, it’s real. Sources leak more when the higher ups aren’t going to listen & they want a record of who they were high on. People have their notebooks, but Kiper will tell a GM which scout had which guy first & highest. That’s the game. But, scouts don’t break down Xs and Os on corners, lbs, des, ss, rbs, WRs, or even QBs. It’s one v one, corners athletic ability = scheme fit, and QBs need what you think they need, it’s rarely complicated

 

 

 

Thanks.  My ego is sky high now.  😀  I agree with the point that anyone of us if we dedicated ourselves to this full time -- like any job could get really good at it.   I've not done that though. But appreciate the plug. 

 

As for Ledyard main reason why i like him is on my end is that egotistically I notice among all the draft geeks I follow that I've agreed with him on more players as opposed to others and he was the main cheerleader last year among draft geeks pushing Derrius Guice. 

 

I get hammered for this sometimes because I know its not cool to say this with some but Cooley has really nailed it over the years on a lot of players they brought in both as to the draft and FA.  So I take his opinion seriously.

 

As for Polian.  I like him with a couple of exceptions -- I've learned he's tight with Bruce Allen who isn't one of my fav executives to say the least 😀 and he was part of the party that sold me hard on RG3.  I recall Polian said he was can't miss and with a release that rivaled Dan Marino.  Having said that, we all make mistakes.  I got his book, The Game Plan, I'll read it soon. 

 

I've become more into some mocks than I have been in the past because many of these guys admitted that they are running with things they've heard leaked.  In the end, some of those leaks turn out correct, some of it wrong.  But heck the off season is long so what else exists for football entertainment?  so I love following the process.  Actually the draft to me beats watching any playoff game or the SB -- its a blast for me. 

 

As for Redskins type leaks, they usually starting coming in around the combine or just a little after.  I recall for example the links to them loving Daron Payne early on.  I recall saying to me son when Payne ran the good 40 at the combine, Redskins must be salivating now.  Most of the noise before the Redskins pick last year was about:  Payne, Vea, Fitzpatrick, D. James   There was plenty of noise too about RB and them loving Guice.   

 

This year nothing really yet tea leaf wise, most of it is scrambled stuff about QB and its all over the map so waiting to see if the beat guys start narrowing it down after the combine.  Keim seemed to be all over it last year and he's giving early hints about WR and pass rusher -- not that them thinking about either position is a surprise. 

 

 

 

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Because forgetting is always a possibility, Finley has my inconsequential interest. 

 

2:45 into this & you seem him get the ball outside with ease, move brilliantly/naturally/calmly in the pocket, extend plays, make something out of nothing, move protection, & replace a blitzer with a football.

 

This is why scouts want guys to return to school. I’d draft him on this alone, and I’ve only seen 2:45. The round is left to the rest of his film, but he’s got a chance. That 2:45 is is nearly perfection, which is uncommon through 10 drop backs + for any college QB v a defense as well coached as BCs is. Once again, I’m surprised.

 

Finley, huh.

🤔

 

 

 

 

Back to my dungeon.

 

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