2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

What would it cost for Washington to trade up with the Buffalo Bills

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If they want an Alex Smith replacement, Buffalo could be sitting pretty.

By Matt Warren  Feb 15, 2019, 9:00am EST

 

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When Alex Smith was injured in 2018, it was apparent fairly early on that his recovery wouldn’t be like that of a normal broken leg. The bone was sticking out of the leg, leading to a greater risk of infection and multiple surgeries. With his leg still in a special cast, Washington has now said they don’t expect Smith to play in 2019 (but left out the more ominous “if he ever plays again”.)

If Washington wants to address their quarterback situation with a rookie at the position, the Buffalo Bills could be in a prime spot to help them. Despite acquiring Joe Flacco, the Denver Broncos could still be in the market to draft a quarterback. With the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants in the top six picks needing a quarterback, and the Miami Dolphins picking two spots ahead of Washington, it’s not just possible but likely that they will need to move up to secure that quarterback.

What would a Buffalo/Washington trade look like?

According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points. With Washington’s pick being worth 1050 points, they would need to come up with the equivalent of a low second-round pick for the trade to balance. Add the second-round pick from Washington (46), which is worth 440 points, and it’s too much. Buffalo would need to send back a third rounder but, to balance it out, would need one more asset back from Washington. Washington doesn’t have a fourth-round pick, which is the right value, so Buffalo accepts a 2020 third round pick instead.

Buffalo gets 15 and 46 overall plus 2020 3rd rounder = 1550 points
Washington gets 9 and 74 = 1570

If you’re looking at newer draft charts, Buffalo might make out better. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, Buffalo’s pick is worth 387 points while Washington’s pick is 315.20. A high third-round pick should be coming Buffalo’s way and Washington’s doesn’t quite do the trick. They need to throw in their fifth-round pick:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/2/15/18225995/cost-washington-trade-up-with-buffalo-bills-2019-nfl-draft-alex-smith-injury

[Skinsinparadise]

Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: Insiders Pick Most Overrated Draft Prospects

 

Before getting into the news and notes of the week—including thoughts on Jaylon Ferguson having his NFL Scouting Combine invite rescinded and the fallout from the Joe Flacco trade—here are those players the pros feel are being overrated.

 

 

Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

"He's probably QB1 in this class, but that doesn't mean he's a good quarterback. This is a bad draft for passers, but he's still going top five. It's just how the league works now." — AFC scouting director

"Haskins scares me, but he has the most traits to work with. Still, he's not [Jared] Goff or anything. He would have been QB4 in last year's class." — NFC area scout

   

Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss

"Oof...this guy is just bad. I don't know what to tell you. He doesn't move well enough to play left. He's too lazy. I laugh every time he's in the first round of a mock draft." — NFC pro scout

"I think this one is pretty obvious because the hype on him has really died down. I remember reading a mock draft in midseason that had him as a top-15 pick, and he was just never that good." — NFC area scout

   

Dexter Lawrence, DL, Clemson

"It's nothing against the kid, but teams should know better than to draft a nose tackle early. He's Vita Vea. He's Danny Shelton. These guys are never worth the early pick." — AFC general manager

 

We keep hearing he's fake. I know he's a great athlete and he's gonna test real well, but he was never the best or even second-best player on [the Clemson] DL." — NFC scouting executive

   

David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin

"I love the hype on this kid because it means someone good will fall to us. Everyone sees 'Wisconsin' and thinks he must be special when the truth is he's all-day average." — AFC area scout

 

Will Grier, QB, West Virginia

"Being short [6'2½"], having a beard and wearing a headband doesn't make you Baker Mayfield." — NFC quarterbacks coach

                  

The Scout's Report

....—The Denver Broncos pulled off a trade to acquire Joe Flacco, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, which left many wondering what to make of the team's reported interest in Missouri quarterback Drew Lock as a draft prospect. A source within the Broncos organization who is aware of their offseason plans told me that nothing has changed: "We're going to take the best player on our board when the pick comes up. Period."

 

6. Stock Up

Georgia wide receiver Riley Ridley is more than the brother of last year's first-rounder Calvin; he's also the best route-runner I've studied in the 2019 class of wide receivers.

Sean Rayford/Associated Press

Ridley is smooth through his breaks and shows the ability to drop his weight and transition to breaking routes. The subtle tricks of route running look natural to him. And while he doesn't have a huge frame (6'2", 200 lbs) his technique and athleticism should allow him to be an early starter for NFL teams. He's polished, tough, physical and smart.

A good showing at the scouting combine could push Ridley into the first round.

         

5. Stock Down

Iowa State's Hakeem Butler made some ridiculous catches throughout the 2018 season as a redshirt sophomore and looked like a potential star in this year's draft class. But after studying his tape more thoroughly, I have serious concerns about his drop rate.

In five games I evaluated, he had five drops. The upside is that he's a dynamic deep threat and is almost unstoppable on jump balls thanks to his 6'6" frame. He needs to test well in the speed and agility drills at the combine, but the one event I'll be focused on for him is the gauntlet drill that asks receivers to catch several balls while working across the field in a straight line.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2820850

[actorguy1]

On further thought, I highly doubt Redskins go QB in the first round. Gruden/Allen are fighting for their jobs and that means a playoff push or bust. There is no way the FO is going to put that in the hands of a rookie QB unless they are forced to because of injury. Drafting a QB in the first round almost guarantees fans will be clamoring for him to start as soon as possible considering the competition he would face. Much more likely they draft a higher level developmental QB that can be the backup as they pray to GOD, whatever vet they go with can string together enough wins.

[Going Commando]

Rashan Gary = most overrated player in the class right now.  Guys like Greg Little have been exposed.

[skinny21]

The more I think about it, the less I understand how Allen et al can say the team is “close”. 

 

Even looking at the team optimistically, our corners are just ok, we have one safety that might be ok (but they benched/supplanted him last year), we’re lacking a good receiver (and might lose Crowder), need a pass rusher and we don’t have a qb that has proven they can play even most of the year (let alone at a high level).  

 

That’s glossing over the Rueben Foster situation, assuming we can find a guard, hoping Guice returns to form, and ignoring the injury concerns with Thompson, Williams and Reed (and to a lesser extent, impact-wise, Richardson).  

 

I think it would be (much) more fair to think there’s some promise to the team - the dline, a good, young back, an intriguing ILB situation, youth at corner and some good pieces on the oline.  

 

Believing we’re “close” is far more likely to lead to mistakes in personnel acquisition, IMO.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Interesting, I like reading Bullock's film reviews.  He was also one of the guys like me who had a man crush on Guice last year. 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

The more I think about it, the less I understand how Allen et al can say the team is “close”. 

 

Even looking at the team optimistically, our corners are just ok, we have one safety that might be ok (but they benched/supplanted him last year), we’re lacking a good receiver (and might lose Crowder), need a pass rusher and we don’t have a qb that has proven they can play even most of the year (let alone at a high level).  

 

That’s glossing over the Rueben Foster situation, assuming we can find a guard, hoping Guice returns to form, and ignoring the injury concerns with Thompson, Williams and Reed (and to a lesser extent, impact-wise, Richardson).  

 

I think it would be (much) more fair to think there’s some promise to the team - the dline, a good, young back, an intriguing ILB situation, youth at corner and some good pieces on the oline.  

 

Believing we’re “close” is far more likely to lead to mistakes in personnel acquisition, IMO.  

 

Wonder if Bruce really believes they are close but nonetheless he likely had to sell to Dan that they are close to keep his job.    After all the time he's been here tough sell to go to Dan hey we will take a step back next year but hang in there with me.  That's my guess at least.  And yeah I do think its possible that Bruce believes it because I don't think the dude is competent.

 

But to your point, yeah I agree the front office will likely make mistakes and fail to ever rebuild properly if they always play things like they are close when they aren't.  Maybe they'd be close if they had a QB.  But like Cooley likes to say, the QB isn't just some player, he's the prime driver of your whole offense -- and if you don't have that then good luck. 

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Believing we’re “close” is far more likely to lead to mistakes in personnel acquisition, IMO.   

 

Everyone is close in the NFL.  The gap between 6-10 and 10-6 is small and basically based on luck.

 

If we got lucky and had Kyler Murray fall to us, we'd easily win 10+ next year.

[Est.1974]

I have a hard time seeing up trade up in this draft. The Smith contract makes our day 1 and 2 draft selection absolutely crucial over the next two season. I could see us going QB at #15, or at most after a very marginal trade up. I think Gruden will believe he can develop Daniel Jones. Seems like a fit to me, however unpopular. After that, Stidham at the end of the third with the Cousins comp pick. That's the direction I think we'll go in the draft with QBs.

 

I'll be surprised if Murray makes it past the #1 pick. This has got a feel of the Mayfield scenario for me. At worst, I see someone jumping into the #5 slot of Tampa's to take him.

[mistertim]

Wait, so Grier is overrated because he's short (6'2 1/2 is short?) And he wears a headband? 

 

Well that was a very well thought out analysis. And how is he overrated if most people don't even see him as a 1st round pick?

 

The hate for that dude is so odd to me.

[OVCChairman]

8 hours ago, skinny21 said:

The more I think about it, the less I understand how Allen et al can say the team is “close”. 

 

Even looking at the team optimistically, our corners are just ok, we have one safety that might be ok (but they benched/supplanted him last year), we’re lacking a good receiver (and might lose Crowder), need a pass rusher and we don’t have a qb that has proven they can play even most of the year (let alone at a high level).  

 

That’s glossing over the Rueben Foster situation, assuming we can find a guard, hoping Guice returns to form, and ignoring the injury concerns with Thompson, Williams and Reed (and to a lesser extent, impact-wise, Richardson).  

 

I think it would be (much) more fair to think there’s some promise to the team - the dline, a good, young back, an intriguing ILB situation, youth at corner and some good pieces on the oline.  

 

Believing we’re “close” is far more likely to lead to mistakes in personnel acquisition, IMO.  

 

 

With the right FO and the right coaching staff, this team is close... to competing regularly.  Not gonna say SB or anything outlandish, but once you get to the dance... who knows what could happen. 

 

Allen has a distorted sense of what's needed to get us there though.  We need a top 10 QB with game winning ability to do it.  We also need a true playmaker at the WR position, and an upgrade at the HC position.  3 key pieces is not THAT far away (and yes it's not easy to just pick a top 10 QB out of a hat.  I understand that) .. but it starts at the top.  This team has a good bit of a foundation at key areas.  We're a LG away from being seemingly set at O-line for 2019, but the right coach can scheme around 1 below average position.  If we don't add anyone at D-line going into this coming season i'd still feel comfortable.  Bring back Preston and change his responsibilities and this defense can play.  It's not going to be a top 5 dominant defense, but it can compete with the right coaching.  Same thing with the offense, plus the pieces i mentioned... of course that's easy to say sitting here on my computer and not actually making the moves.   

 

There are a bunch of other holes that need to be addressed to be considered legitimate, but a good coach has the ability to schematically overcome a lot... we just don't have that coach / FO philosophy.  Make the right moves and we find ourselves in the conversation for the division for the next few years.  Make the wrong ones and were constantly looking up at .500.  With what's in Ashburn right now, we're in the column of the latter.  

 

[actorguy1]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Indianapolis_Colts_season

 

After reading this I see alot off erie similarities to the 2011 Colts and getting the number 1 overall pick in 2020. Sigh...we can only dream can't we?

[volsmet]

17 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: Insiders Pick Most Overrated Draft Prospects

 

 

Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

"He's probably QB1 in this class, but that doesn't mean he's a good quarterback. This is a bad draft for passers, but he's still going top five. It's just how the league works now." — AFC scouting director

"Haskins scares me, but he has the most traits to work with. Still, he's not [Jared] Goff or anything. He would have been QB4 in last year's class." — NFC area scout

   

 

Will Grier, QB, West Virginia

"Being short [6'2½"], having a beard and wearing a headband doesn't make you Baker Mayfield." — NFC quarterbacks coach

                  

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2820850

 

Good to see people around the league checking in. 

13 hours ago, actorguy1 said:

On further thought, I highly doubt Redskins go QB in the first round. Gruden/Allen are fighting for their jobs and that means a playoff push or bust. There is no way the FO is going to put that in the hands of a rookie QB unless they are forced to because of injury. Drafting a QB in the first round almost guarantees fans will be clamoring for him to start as soon as possible considering the competition he would face. Much more likely they draft a higher level developmental QB that can be the backup as they pray to GOD, whatever vet they go with can string together enough wins.

 

Allen seems to have Grunfeld-ish security. Gruden may be safer if he shows something with a rookie, he’s not likely to do much with a vet. 

13 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Rashan Gary = most overrated player in the class right now.  Guys like Greg Little have been exposed.

 

What round would you take Gary in?

 

 

10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Interesting, I like reading Bullock's film reviews.  He was also one of the guys like me who had a man crush on Guice last year. 

 

 

 

 

Agree. Kyler over Haskins, not close, imho. 

 

Kyler

—

Lock

Haskins

 

So far, anyway.

[volsmet]

7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Everyone is close in the NFL.  The gap between 6-10 and 10-6 is small and basically based on luck.

 

If we got lucky and had Kyler Murray fall to us, we'd easily win 10+ next year.

 

Easy 10+ wins with a rookie QB & heavy contract on the pine means Steve would trade up bigly for Kyler, or so I’d interpret it.

 

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

Wait, so Grier is overrated because he's short (6'2 1/2 is short?) And he wears a headband? 

 

Well that was a very well thought out analysis. And how is he overrated if most people don't even see him as a 1st round pick?

 

The hate for that dude is so odd to me.

 

That wasn’t a criticism of him, I don’t see how you could see it as one. 

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

That wasn’t a criticism of him, I don’t see how you could see it as one. 

 

That was straight from @Skinsinparadise's post where he put up the BR article: Matt Miller's most overrated prospects. Grier was on there and those were literally the only things they seemed to be able to find on him:

 

Quote

Will Grier, QB, West Virginia

"Being short [6'2½"], having a beard and wearing a headband doesn't make you Baker Mayfield." — NFC quarterbacks coach

 

Either way, how can Grier be considered "overrated" when he isn't even thought of by most as a 1st rounder, even though he's only under Kyler Murray in almost every passing category and above Haskins, Lock, Jones, etc?

 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Everyone is close in the NFL.  The gap between 6-10 and 10-6 is small and basically based on luck.

 

If we got lucky and had Kyler Murray fall to us, we'd easily win 10+ next year.

 

You can almost though make the point that any team that finds a stud-franchise QB then they instantly become a contender.  That's proven to be mostly true.  Maybe it takes a year to get your bearings but ultimately it plays out that way.  The hard part though obviously is landing said stud QB.  I think this team is far away with Colt at QB and yes close if Kyler is the QB.  Question is can they pull that off? 

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

That was straight from @Skinsinparadise's post where he put up the BR article: Matt Miller's most overrated prospects. Grier was on there and those were literally the only things they seemed to be able to find on him:

 

 

 

 

The way I took Miller's point is a scout sees Grier's hype not matching what he sees on game tape.  

[volsmet]

11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

That was straight from @Skinsinparadise's post where he put up the BR article: Matt Miller's most overrated prospects. Grier was on there and those were literally the only things they seemed to be able to find on him:

 

 

Either way, how can Grier be considered "overrated" when he isn't even thought of by most as a 1st rounder, even though he's only under Kyler Murray in almost every passing category and above Haskins, Lock, Jones, etc?

 

 

Yeah, but he’s just saying because a guy reminds you of someone, it doesn’t mean he actually has any of the attributes that make the other player good. I don’t like how he said it either, I’ve never seen anyone say Grier acts, looks or tries to imitate Baker, I hadn’t seen anyone compare them at all before that quote.

 

*I could see someone saying just because Jones ...... it doesn’t mean he’s Peyton or Eli. 

 

 

 

[skinny21]

11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Wonder if Bruce really believes they are close but nonetheless he likely had to sell to Dan that they are close to keep his job.    After all the time he's been here tough sell to go to Dan hey we will take a step back next year but hang in there with me.  That's my guess at least.  And yeah I do think its possible that Bruce believes it because I don't think the dude is competent.

 

But to your point, yeah I agree the front office will likely make mistakes and fail to ever rebuild properly if they always play things like they are close when they aren't.  Maybe they'd be close if they had a QB.  But like Cooley likes to say, the QB isn't just some player, he's the prime driver of your whole offense -- and if you don't have that then good luck. 

 

 

 

Yeah, it’s a fair point that Allen has to sell that we’re close.  The fact that others have parroted it makes me wonder (though they too could be looking toward job security).  

9 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Everyone is close in the NFL.  The gap between 6-10 and 10-6 is small and basically based on luck.

 

If we got lucky and had Kyler Murray fall to us, we'd easily win 10+ next year.

Yeah, I mean if Smith had stayed healthy, we may well have won 10 games.  On the other hand, while we got very lucky with fumbles, for example, it’s hard to believe we’ll suddenly get ‘lucky’ with injuries.  Seeing how we matched up vs the Saints, the fact we’re without a franchise qb, that we were so up and down vs the run and running the ball... I’m not sure we had a chance vs the playoff teams.  Maybe we could have won one, but it sure felt like we’d have been outclassed by the better teams.  And now our situation is far worse.  

 

To your next point though, if we landed Murray and if he is the super stud he was in college, sure, we might become legit contenders even with our myriad of other issues.  Can he overcome a lack of playmakers?  Can he perform behind an oline with a weak link that likely has hobbled tackles?  That’s a tall order.  I’ll be curious to see how the defense plays out too - losing Swearinger, uncertainty at FS, potentially losing Preston Smith, vs adding Rueben Foster (and whoever we add via draft/FA)... it’s going to be interesting.  

 

If Murray is the type that can lift this team up that much, being “close” becomes - “if we can add a generational player, then we can be legitimate contenders”, which is a bit different IMO.  

[bowhunter]

As far as potential QB drafting goes, assuming we don't trade up, there are roughly 4 teams that need a QB. Giants, Jags, Bengals, and Dolphins. Not surprisingly, they all pick in the first half (duh...winning teams have good QBs) and ahead of us. IMO, there are 4 "good" QBs to be had.

1) Murray

2) Haskins

3) Grier

4) Lock

  I'd be happy to see any of them added to our roster. The leftovers are what we will probably have to pick from. (Finley, Stidham, Jones, etc) So, in a static draft we probably need to prepare ourselves that a potential franchise QB will not be available and there's no reason  not to grab the TE Hoek, or trade back a few spots and still grab a stud G. I still would hope to see one of the top 4 fall to us, or hope that a QB needy team chooses from the leftovers instead. But if one of them were to fall to us, there is not a reason not to still trade back a little, as no one behind us needs a QB.

[Anselmheifer]

 

For a team that is extremely lacking in team speed on offense and suffers as an offense whenever Chris Thompson is hurt, I can't think of a more Redskins like move than drafting Bryce Love. The Skins love drafting injured players and I could easily see us viewing him as a value pick in the 3rd or 4th. 

Likewise, I think Jeffery Simmons to the Cowboys makes a lot of sense. This might now be the pot calling the kettle black, but drafting an injured player with character question marks to strengthen the trenches on an already strong defensive unit sounds like a Cowboys type move. 

[mistertim]

I like Bryce Love but I think he'll be a 2nd rounder, even with a somewhat disappointing Senior year. IMO with AP (possibly), Guice, and CT on our team using a 2nd rounder on a RB would be a luxury pick. We have more glaring needs ATM. Of course that does assume that AP comes back, that Guice is able to come back relatively strong from his injury,and that CT can stay healthy...none of which are foregone conclusions. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I posted a bunch on Love before the last draft when it looked like he was coming out. 

 

Between the ACL tear and the down year he had in 2018, I think his stock has dropped a lot.

 

I saw Matt Miller's mock had him in the 7th rd. Seems like most others think he goes late three, early 4th round.

 

I am presuming we go nowhere near him. Slight build-injury prone.

 

It was interesting to hear Casserly's (in spite of his faults) take on this roster recently because he in the past has been a bit of a homer. His take is that injuries are not an accident with this team because it is loaded up with injury prone guys so they made their bed to some degree on this.

 

I would presume after the last 2 years the FO might be gun shy on slight build dudes with an injury history.

[OVCChairman]

30 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I like Bryce Love but I think he'll be a 2nd rounder, even with a somewhat disappointing Senior year. IMO with AP (possibly), Guice, and CT on our team using a 2nd rounder on a RB would be a luxury pick IMO. We have more glaring needs ATM. Of course that does assume that AP comes back, that Guice is able to come back relatively strong from his injury,and that CT can stay healthy...none of which are foregone conclusions. 

 

 

I absolutely agree. 

[Anselmheifer]

Just to be clear, I wasn't saying I would draft Bryce Love. I was saying, I think the Skins might. He had a disappointing senior year, is small, and tore his ACL in his last college game, on 12/1. He had surgery sometime in December. I don't see him being able to perform any drills or run a 40 before the NFL draft, and I don't know that he is ready for the start of the regular season. He is going to drop. I don't see any way that he's a second rounder. 

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I would presume after the last 2 years the FO might be gun shy on slight build dudes with an injury history.

 

I'd presume the opposite. The current regime loves injury prone players, seemingly only seeing the value, since they can be signed or drafted at reduced cost, and consistently ignoring the risks. Paul Richardson? I'll believe they have changed when I see they have changed. 

[skinny21]

I think there’s a distinction to be made between guys that are injury prone and guys that had a (at least somewhat) significant injury.  The latter I don’t mind so much - guys like Fuller, Moreau and Guice (and I’m sure there are others).  Guys that had multiple issues in college or the pros are a different matter - like Reed, Thompson, Richardson.  

 

That reads like I’m saying it’s a black and white issue, which isn’t what I intended.  Gambling on a guy in the draft that is coming off a big injury doesn’t seem quite as risky as one would think.  Richardson, on the other hand, was a terrible investment.