2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[HigSkin]

I suppose he is getting serious...

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

54 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

I seriously think Rosen is dead man walking. The cards can even keep him around, most of his contract is a sunk upfront cost and he'd be cheaper than most vet back ups. If Murray creates a truck load of hype, nails the pre draft process, and becomes the prized asset heading into the draft, I mean it would take some brave, or stupid, teams to pass him over.

 

I agree about the trade leverage, but picking #1 if you fall in love with a QB you are without doubt just picking him.

 

 

Sure, not saying they won't draft him.  But saying in their shoes I'd leak to some that I might do so regardless of my true intentions.    I noticed a lot of Rosen is my guy articles coming out of Kingsbury of late.  The one challenge he might have is their GM, Keim, drafted Rosen - and typically a coach interviewing for a job claims they are sold on the guy in house because it makes them a more attractive candidate.  Some say Jay did just that with RG3.  And you can't blame them because you got to do what you got to do to get hired. 

 

I am slowly digesting articles about evaluating QBs, and one of them didn't make me feel great about Rosen but don't recall the rationale. 

 

 

 

[nonniey]

43 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Is Murray actually going to get past the Cardinals at #1. .......... 

Yes. Not really sure when he'll go but it won't be #1 and probably not top 10 (But then again that is what they were saying about Mayfield this time last year).

[Skinsinparadise]

 

Our next QB, Kyler Murray, being interviewed shortly on the NFL Network. 😀  I like hearing the Giants are likely out if that's true. 

 

 

[bowhunter]

On 2/8/2019 at 12:09 AM, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I don't see Murray going #1. There are true franchise defenders in this draft vs a risky QB. I do however think he'll go in the top 10. If not, I'd be happy with him at 15 (or possibly a slight move down to 12 or so.) We have too many holes to fill, can't giveaway draft picks when you have no FA dollars. If Murray is gone before we get to decide, I'll continue to bang on the table for Grier, possible to slide back a little and still get a franchise type QB.

 

Edit. sorry @Alcoholic Zebra . I don't know why I could not post without it quoting you. I had responded to one of your posts at an earlier time and it kept quoting you in this response as well.

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Our next QB, Kyler Murray, being interviewed shortly on the NFL Network. 😀  I like hearing the Giants are likely out if that's true. 

 

 

We can hope, SIP.   We can hope.  I think he would do some amazing things as our starting QB if we are willing to do what it takes to draft him.  

[Skinsinparadise]

16 minutes ago, RWJ said:

We can hope, SIP.   We can hope.  I think he would do some amazing things as our starting QB if we are willing to do what it takes to draft him.  

 

 

[Going Commando]

He must have gotten a promise from a team.  I bet it's a top 15 promise.

[Rufus T Firefly]

5 hours ago, crabbypatty said:

Give me a "good enough" guy with moxie. A guy who is not the best passer but is a good sized, strong armed cool customer. Mechanics and all that can be taught. A guy like that will not cost a ton, and will allow us to upgrade other positions, Edge, OG, WR, TE, ILB..

I get where you're coming from, but I'm going to beg to differ on guys who are specifically not good passers. Accuracy is the most important physical ability a QB prospect can have. You don't know you can fix it if you fix mechanics. Some guys just aren't accurate. And fixing mechanics isn't always possible anyways, at least not without years of work. 

 

A guy with "moxie" whose release is a little slow, who's an inch or two shorter than ideal, who doesn't always diagnose or read defenses the best, who maybe needs to work on arm strength, or work on his footwork, etc.... In those cases, I can get onboard with where you're coming from (depending on what other traits he has, and the definition of his "moxie"). But just taking a bad passer and assuming you can fix that, no thanks.

[Skinsinparadise]

Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

There are 38 quarterbacks who a) were drafted from an FBS school between 2010-17 and b) have thrown at least 300 passes in the NFL. This is not a huge group, and it overlooks players who either just entered the league, have battled injuries, or, of course, weren’t good enough to throw 300 passes in the league. Looking at college-to-pro results will always have limitations like that.

We can still pretty clearly learn something from these 38 QBs. For starters, none of them exceeded their college success rate in their first four years in the pros*.

 

Your college success rate is your ceiling.

 

Almost the only guys who came the close to matching their college success rates were near the bottom:

• Brock Osweiler (45.4 percent success rate in college, 43.9 percent in first four NFL years) mostly sat the bench for three seasons, then parlayed a fourth-year surge into a lofty contract (and promptly fell apart).
• Jake Locker (40.0 percent / 38.3 percent) was the least efficient college QB in the sample and one of the least efficient in the pros.
• New Viking Kirk Cousins (48.5 percent / 46.1 percent), a fourth-round pick in 2012, also perhaps benefited from early-career bench time before thriving. We’ll see if his sparkly new contract ends up a better investment than Osweiler’s.

Osweiler and Cousins got to sit and learn for a while before being sent into action. A lot of top draft picks, however, were given early playing time, both because of their potential and the fact that teams had invested top draft picks in them. For players like Jameis Winston (45.8 percent success rate in the pros), Cam Newton (42.6 percent in his first four years), and Marcus Mariota(43.4 percent), this has worked out pretty well.

 

...We don’t learn as much about the guys with great college efficiency as the ones with statistical deficiencies. Your success rate is going to sink as the degree of difficulty improves, and while the most efficient college quarterbacks have the best odds of pro efficiency, the variance is pretty high.

But your ceiling is your ceiling, and even if this doesn’t say much about guys with obscene college stats, it says a ton about the Lockers and/or Blaine Gabberts of the world, the guys with mediocre stats and standout physical traits, the guys about whom scouts will say “Yeah, his stats aren’t that good, but I can fix him. Just look at that arm!”

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

I seriously think Rosen is dead man walking. The cards can even keep him around, most of his contract is a sunk upfront cost and he'd be cheaper than most vet back ups.

Still not sold on the notion of Arizona taking Murray, but if they do, they'd also have the option of sitting Murray for a while and grooming hm while they let Rosen play and hopefully build some trade value for himself.

 

And or all of the above, though, requires they find a way to fix that OLine. Which, in my rebuilding fantasy would be where my idea comes in of offering them Scherff and Williams, plus probably a couple of mid rounders, for their 1sts in 2020 and 2021. But dare to dream.

[PartyPosse]

4 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Still not sold on the notion of Arizona taking Murray, but if they do, they'd also have the option of sitting Murray for a while and grooming hm while they let Rosen play and hopefully build some trade value for himself.

 

And or all of the above, though, requires they find a way to fix that OLine. Which, in my rebuilding fantasy would be where my idea comes in of offering them Scherff and Williams, plus probably a couple of mid rounders, for their 1sts in 2020 and 2021. But dare to dream.

If they draft Murray then there is little chance Rosen’s value increases simply because the team will still be garbage around him and other gms will know that Arizona can’t keep him.

 

Im sort of on board idea of trading Williams but Scherff is a no go. Even with all those firsts you’ll have absolutely no OL for whichever QB you end up drafting. You already have holes at LG and RG (Moses’ injuries have taken their toll). You really want to start a rookie QB behind an offensive line anchored by Chase??

[Rufus T Firefly]

49 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

If they draft Murray then there is little chance Rosen’s value increases simply because the team will still be garbage around him and other gms will know that Arizona can’t keep him.

People love saying things like this, but it's not really how trade value works. If Rosen played well, then Arizona's choice wouldn't be to take what you offer vs keeping him, it's what you offer vs what all the other teams who would like to get a young, promising low-salaried QB would be willing to offer.

50 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Im sort of on board idea of trading Williams but Scherff is a no go. Even with all those firsts you’ll have absolutely no OL for whichever QB you end up drafting. You already have holes at LG and RG (Moses’ injuries have taken their toll). You really want to start a rookie QB behind an offensive line anchored by Chase??

No, I'd plan on using all the draft capital and cap space I'd create to build a new OLine for the long-term. 

 

And I'm more concerned with getting a great foundational QB and I think Arizona's firsts still have a chance to be high, maybe really high, even with Williams and Scherff (and Murray). Plus, us getting worse for a year or two gives us more potential shots at getting a Franchise guy in the next. two drafts, which look to be really strong QB drafts. 

 

Scherff starts getting really expensive this year. If we start rebuilding now, we're not going to be a serious contender for at least 2 years (If we don't, it'll be considerably longer). So we can pay Scherff about 25 mil for two years of us not contending so we'll be able to pay him about 15 mil per year as he's hitting his 30s and we start getting good. Or we can instead save and roll over some of that money for when we might be good again, play put part of the long-term money into signing a guy at one of the few positions where top-notch FAs routinely change teams (check out the potential G FAs in 2020). And pocket good draft picks in the process. 

 

I'm not giving Scherff away. But in the specific idea I posted, hell yes. It's the kind of thing a forward-thinking, creative Front Office would try to pull off. So, not ours. But I wasn't suggesting it actually might happen, just an idea of what should.

[volsmet]

Love this thread, got to give it a break from my presence every once in awhile. 

 

Watching Polite v Michigan this morning - one thing is clear - Shea Patterson is a round 1 lock next season. He’s more gifted than anyone in this class, but I’ve seen few, with as much experience as Patterson has, ride out an initial read with such conviction; that’s the gentle way to put it. Even with that acknowledged, there is a better chance of my house turning into a waffle than there is of Patterson not going in the top 15 next season. 

 

 

On to my dude. Not much love on this board so far, but there is time to build the hype.

 

 

I wager this doesnt stand after the combine. Seems a rather likely candidate for a delete or a claim of a hacked account:

 

 

This should be on animal planet, two wild animals in a glorious battle:

 

 

 

 

 

Fight mode: On

 

 

 

[volsmet]

VVery interested in this young mans agility testing:

 

Amani is 6’1 I believe, 

 

Vosean Joseph, no relation to Knowshon - nor to DeShaun, stuck out while watching Polite. I haven’t seen where he’s projected, but he’s an interesting prospect that I assume is a day 2 kinda fella, fashionably late.

 

 

 

A wise man once said, be kind to your birds and your goats. 

 

 

 

[volsmet]

The Fantman may be getting slept on a bit. In his blocking you can see obvious explosion, he’s going to kill the combine if this isn’t some imposter in a Fant jersey..

 

Hockenson 

 

 

Fant

 

Double trouble

 

This is how they get down for the kids, wave byebye 

 

 

 

 

 

[volsmet]

22 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I don't see an issue with speed, but I do agree that he's a stiffer rusher who has a natural long stride and has a hard time sinking his hips and making the turn against tackles with good feet.  His fifth and sixth steps are too big and it's leaving him unbalanced at the turn.

 

This is why I think tall rushers like him have so much more trouble flattening out compared to the shorter, more compact rushers like Jachai Polite.

 

The more I see of both him and Montez Sweat, the more they remind me of each other.  They have a lot of the same strength and weaknesses, but with Sweat I see a more polished pass rusher, but much less motor.

 

 

 

 

He does a really good job of breaking down Clelin's weaknesses, particularly the one that I think I think is his biggest issue: lack of pass rushing polish and repertoire.  He gets stymied when the first move fails, and there is no go to counter he can run in his sleep that can revert to.  Voch Lombardi calls it lacking a plan--that he's just going up to the LoS with the only thought of jumping the snap and that he doesn't think beyond the first move.

 

 

 

Do you see Joe Jackson as a bit of a poor mans Clelin? I’m watching some Jackson now & I see some similarities, more so than I have with Sweat. I think Sweat is better than either at this point, more explosive, less comfortable to block. But, it’s early in looking at these guys still.

 

 

[volsmet]

 

 

[volsmet]

Porter Gustin - great talent, great intensity, some injuries, could be a great value. 

 

Explosive, as I’m sure has been noticed, that’s priority 1 for me - explosion.

 

 

 

 

 

Ex

plo

sive

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[volsmet]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

Interesting opening to the strengths portion of the breakdown.

 

Unfortunately, & I know this is something I’ve said already, ain’t no chance he’s there at 15. I heard someone cite “GM’s” in their assessment that Murray will go in the Lamar Jackson range — that guy was lied to. If I can bet on Murray’s draft position u 14.5, I’m going to make enough money to take everyone in this thread to Bob’ Big Boy.

 

 

[crabbypatty]

12 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I get where you're coming from, but I'm going to beg to differ on guys who are specifically not good passers. Accuracy is the most important physical ability a QB prospect can have. You don't know you can fix it if you fix mechanics. Some guys just aren't accurate. And fixing mechanics isn't always possible anyways, at least not without years of work. 

 

A guy with "moxie" whose release is a little slow, who's an inch or two shorter than ideal, who doesn't always diagnose or read defenses the best, who maybe needs to work on arm strength, or work on his footwork, etc.... In those cases, I can get onboard with where you're coming from (depending on what other traits he has, and the definition of his "moxie"). But just taking a bad passer and assuming you can fix that, no thanks.

completely agree, I'm not saying take a guy who is a bad passer, that's why I used Prescott as my example. He didn't set the world on fire with his passing in college, he was used much more as a runner. However he had a good release, a strong arm and was accurate enough to feed off of a good running game, similar to how RG3 was his rookie season here.

RG barely passed for 3k yards, but was good enough to win 10 games. That's what I'm getting at. Of all the guys coming out this year that won't cost a fortune to draft, the only one who fits what I'm looking for is Stidham.

Big dude, strong arm, over the top release and great footwork, and is from the SEC so he played against top level competition.

Decision making needs work and he can clean up his accuracy, but I think he's got the tools to be a Dak-like guy. Not nearly as good of a runner, but good enough.

(I realize this flies in the face of what I said earlier, about not taking a bad passer, but Auburn was terrible and he was really on an island)

He can be had in the 3rd or 4th most likely, and would allow us to go edge, OG/WR/TE with the earlier picks.

All the other lower tier guys don't have nearly the arm strength he does. Grier, Finley, Thorson, they've all got significantly weaker arms.

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

Interesting opening to the strengths portion of the breakdown.

 

Unfortunately, & I know this is something I’ve said already, ain’t no chance he’s there at 15. I heard someone cite “GM’s” in their assessment that Murray will go in the Lamar Jackson range — that guy was lied to. If I can bet on Murray’s draft position u 14.5, I’m going to make enough money to take everyone in this thread to Bob’ Big Boy.

 

 

 

It's likely going to be a wild ride on the QB front and it will start in FA with Foles.  Then we got Tannehill, Flacco moving.  Possibly Dalton, too.   So that will set up some of the draft dominos

 

Then we got gossip-rumors

 

A.  Do the Cardinals go all in on Murray and trade Rosen?   Some saying yes, some saying no.

B.  Some suggest Jon Gruden doesn't love Carr and will trade him and draft Murray or Haskins

C.  Judging by the guys who cover the Giants, they covet Haskins

D.  Multiple people say Denver covets Lock.

E.  As for Jones people are all over the map on him with most draft geeks thinking he's a 2nd rounder now but with some thinking he's a top 10 pick.  Seems to be the same with rumors of what personnel people think.

F.  Dolphins according to some love Tua and will wait things out for 2020 but who knows if true.  They also got a stagnant vibe to the team similar to this team where fans are checking out.  So could they pass up Murray on the off chance he falls to them?

 

Personally, I got no feel for how things will shake out, yet.   If I recall typically post combine things crystallize some as for rumors-gossip.  If I recall at this stage Mayfield was considered by many in the 10-15 range but climbed ultimately into the top 5 in most mocks, then top 3 where rumors were he wouldn't get past the Jets.   I am presuming things need to shake out some.

 

My gut right now is Murray goes top 5.  Haskins, too.  Either Jax or Miami sign Foles.   So lets say Jax is out of the draft QB derby.  And lets say the Dolphins are waiting for 2020.  And Denver indeed likes Lock.  Then who is the battle with to get into the top 5?  Just the Giants?  And if the Giants are out on Murray as some think then the Giants might think they can sit there and wait for Haskins to drop to them at 6 especially if as some say they like Jones, too. So if one isn't there, the other one should be.

 

I am relaxed about all of this because I am perfectly fine with getting no one in the draft and punting to 2020.   My only fear is Jones at #15.  Other thing is I don't want the Giants to get their QB easy, I want them to trade up and expend draft capital.  Drives me nuts if the Giants can have their cake and eat it too -- big time RB one draft and the QB they love in the next draft -- all falling right in their lap.

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, crabbypatty said:

completely agree, I'm not saying take a guy who is a bad passer, that's why I used Prescott as my example. He didn't set the world on fire with his passing in college, he was used much more as a runner. However he had a good release, a strong arm and was accurate enough to feed off of a good running game, similar to how RG3 was his rookie season here.

RG barely passed for 3k yards, but was good enough to win 10 games. That's what I'm getting at. Of all the guys coming out this year that won't cost a fortune to draft, the only one who fits what I'm looking for is Stidham.

Big dude, strong arm, over the top release and great footwork, and is from the SEC so he played against top level competition.

Decision making needs work and he can clean up his accuracy, but I think he's got the tools to be a Dak-like guy. Not nearly as good of a runner, but good enough.

(I realize this flies in the face of what I said earlier, about not taking a bad passer, but Auburn was terrible and he was really on an island)

He can be had in the 3rd or 4th most likely, and would allow us to go edge, OG/WR/TE with the earlier picks.

All the other lower tier guys don't have nearly the arm strength he does. Grier, Finley, Thorson, they've all got significantly weaker arms.

 

How about another SEC QB, with a strongish arm, more mobility than Stidham.  Not saying i am sold but if I am taking a flier he has some intrigue to me.  He's only 21 years old.  He has better 2018 stats than Stidham, granted with a better supporting cast.

 

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Ole Miss					381	591	64.5	5600	9.5	9.6	30	12	156.8
2017	Ole Miss	SEC	JR	QB	7	115	173	66.5	1682	9.7	10.0	11	4	164.5
2018	Ole Miss	SEC	SR	QB	12	266	418	63.6	3918	9.4	9.4	19	8	153.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

Do you see Joe Jackson as a bit of a poor mans Clelin? I’m watching some Jackson now & I see some similarities, more so than I have with Sweat. I think Sweat is better than either at this point, more explosive, less comfortable to block. But, it’s early in looking at these guys still.

 

Yeah, I can see that comparison.  I actually think all three of them are from the same school of edge player.  All big athletes at the position who win with natural talent and don't have a lot of bend or nuanced and fluid rush tools.

 

I still think Clelin is the best of the three though.  I think he's the cleanest of the bunch, and I've still got him as the third best edge player behind Allen and Bosa.  To me, Clelin's weaknesses are really straightforward to deal with:

1 - Lose the sloppy weight

2 - Improve Cardio

3 - Develop the repertoire and approach

 

Working on these things goes hand in hand with the natural maturation process of players, particularly when NFL coaches get to work with them.  I already know for sure with him that he's got the speed, strength, and motor.

 

With Sweat, I'm less sure about his traits.  First off, don't love that he got kicked out of Michigan State.  But character concerns aside, he's kind of an ectomorph.  He's got a lot more violence and punch in his hands than you first expect, but he's still going to have to deal with a fairly significant strength disadvantage at the next level that Clelin will not share.  There is a difference of 30+ pounds of beef between them.  And just as stiff and his motor isn't as good.

 

It's also easier to lose weight and tone up than it is to build your body when you've got a lanky, slender frame.

 

Again, I can see what you mean with the comparison between Clelin and Jackson.  Clelin is faster IMO, but Jackson has good snap quickness and he's also a hustle rusher who can win with power and tenacity.  Some of the same issues with his handfighting too.  Just kind of gets stuck and the hands stop moving.

 

He's got really skinny legs, and it's weird considering how well built he is throughout the rest of his frame.