2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[carex]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As for the 19 FAs.  What do we have like 4 who are worth bringing back?

 

that's closer to the number who AREN'T worth bringing back.  Now I don't expect us to get to keep all of them, but we need them or money to sign depth, having only the standard seven draft picks this year

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, carex said:

 

that's closer to the number who AREN'T worth bringing back.  Now I don't expect us to get to keep all of them, but we need them or money to sign depth, having only the standard seven draft picks this year

 

Then I think you will be disappointed judging by what some of the beat reporters say they are hearing.  Looks like Breeland, Lauvao and probably even Long are gone.  Zach Brown and Mason Foster probably back.  Either Trent M. or Galette.  Ryan Grant.   Most of the other guys are cheap role players.  Some back, some not but they aren't cap breakers.

 

The Saints point you made instead actually set up my point pretty well.   The cap goes up every year -- if you know what you are doing (and again I understand the hesitation about the people running the front office if that's what's driving this point) you can make it work.  Just about the rest of the NFL can figure it out.  I think the Redskins FO could figure it out, too. 

 

Bringing this back to the draft, if they keep Kirk I don't think they need FA to take the next leap aside from a FA WR.  The draft could do it. 

  

[carex]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Then I think you will be disappointed judging by what some of the beat reporters say they are hearing.  Looks like Breeland, Lauvao and probably even Long are gone.  Zach Brown and Mason Foster probably back.  Either Trent or Galette.  Ryan Grant.   Most of the other guys are cheap role players.  Some back, some not but they aren't cap breakers.

 

The Saints point you made instead actually set up my point pretty well.   The cap goes up every year -- if you know what you are doing (and again I understand the hesitation about the people running the front office if that's what's driving this point) you can make it work.  Just about the rest of the NFL can figure it out.  I think the Redskins FO could figure it out, too. 

 

I'm including the cap rise in my predictions.  And I said we wouldn't be keeping all of them, but there is a difference between worth retaining and able to retain

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, carex said:

 

I'm including the cap rise in my predictions.  And I said we wouldn't be keeping all of them, but there is a difference between worth retaining and able to retain

 

You thought the Saints had a better cap situation.  But they actually had a significantly worse situation.   I don't see the litany of critical-expensive resigns.   Heck they can even lose Foster and I wouldn't lose sleep with a Vigil and Z. Brown combination.  I was surprised to hear two different guys covering the team say they might let both Lauvao and Long go.   I don't see who these expensive FAs we got to bring back that will cripple the cap.  

 

The Saints got their first rounder, 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder right.  Redskins could do it, too.  Aside from Zach, we don't have expensive FAs in play.  IMO getting the draft right will mean a lot more IMO than whether we bring Niles Paul, Will Compton, Brain Quick, Chris Carter, etc back.

 

[carex]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You thought the Saints had a better cap situation.  But they actually had a significantly worse situation.   I don't see the litany of critical-expensive resigns.   Heck they can even lose Foster and I wouldn't lose sleep with a Vigil and Z. Brown combination.  I was surprised to hear two different guys covering the team say they might let both Lauvao and Long go.   I don't see who these expensive FAs we got to bring back that will cripple the cap.  

 

The Saints got their first rounder, 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder right.  Redskins could do it, too.  Aside from Zach, we don't have expensive FAs in play.  IMO getting the draft right will mean a lot more IMO than whether we bring Niles Paul, Will Compton, Brain Quick, Chris Carter, etc back.

 

 

Kirk and Zach probably take over 35 of that 50 and vet minimum is getting pretty high these days

[Skinsinparadise]

16 minutes ago, carex said:

 

Kirk and Zach probably take over 35 of that 50 and vet minimum is getting pretty high these days

 

I think it would end up lower than that.  But I'll play with your number.  Still plenty of room.  Other teams figure this stuff out.  Granted Bruce-Dan and the operation over here aren't the Saints -- Bruce isn't Jeff Ireland.   So yeah I grant you the Saints are likely better at both playing the draft and the cap than the Redskins.   But I'd hope they can show some competence even if they aren't anything special. 

 

But back to the draft.  This isn't a FA thread.  Do you think they can improve the defense and running game -- in particular via the first and 2nd round?    Or do you think they have to scratch the whole thing and start from scratch?

[skinny21]

Personally, I'm only interested in bringing back Cousins, Brown, Breeland, Foster, Galette or Murphy, Grant, and Hopkins.  Maybe bring Taylor, Quick and Bergstrom to camp.  Breeland is out if Cousins re-signs and I'm ok with that.  Also ok with just re-signing Cousins and Brown and see what the draft brings (and what money is left) before signing anyone else.  Not ideal, of course, but maybe not so bad as it would appear/seem.  

 

Looking forward to seeing how our young guys progress - Lanier, Roullier, Nicholson, Allen, Moreau, Sprinkle, Davis, (I'll include Vigil, though he ain't 'young'), etc.  

 

I'm not convinced we can get much better in the run game via this draft, but it's certainly possible.  If the problems stem mostly from our backs, we can very likely find an upgrade.  If it stems from our TE blocking, we can likely draft a well rounded rookie (and Sprinkle could help).  If it's our oline, we can likely find a starting LG that offers more than Lauvao (and I think Roullier offers more as a run blocker than Long).  If it's mostly the scheme (meshing PA to run blocking, or giving our guys difficult blocking assignments) or how we use our personnel... we might be in trouble.  If it's 1) a combo of 2 or more of those things, we might only be able to manage marginal improvement.  

 

I think we stand and a good chance of marginal improvement of the defense and ground game via the draft, and maybe a bit more as guys 1) get healthy, and 2) get more acclimated to the system (FAs from last year, or our young guys).  

 

Besides the benefits we could get from a healthy oline, a 3 down back, adding a TE, etc... I think it's going to be tough(est) to improve our passing game (specifically at outside receiver)... but it's also maybe, and hopefully, a case of nowhere to go but up.   

 

 

I know I've mentioned it before, but our run game and run D have so much room for improvement, that I think any early round additions we make there stand to improve us more than they might other teams.  We have some nice pieces, but are sorely lacking at a few key spots.  As I said above, if part of our problem in the ground game is the backs, adding a guy that can add an explosive play (or more) every game can really change our fortunes.  That opens up passing lanes/improves PA and could push our 2.9 ypc (or whatever) to 4.0 (or whatever, lol).  Or maybe we just wind up with the aforementioned 'marginal improvement' and we hope the following draft and added experience for the young guys take that a step further the following year.  Lot of 'hope', 'could', etc., but I like the idea of continuing to work through the draft to get younger, cheaper and better while retaining the talent that prove themselves.... as well as retaining a franchise qb.  

 

Sorry for the tangent to FA and Cousins.  I suggest any responses to those specific things be taken to the right thread.  

[carex]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think it would end up lower than that.  But I'll play with your number.  Still plenty of room.  Other teams figure this stuff out.  Granted Bruce-Dan and the operation over here aren't the Saints -- Bruce isn't Jeff Ireland.   So yeah I grant you the Saints are likely better at both playing the draft and the cap than the Redskins.   But I'd hope they can shows some competence even if they aren't anything special. 

 

But back to the draft.  This isn't a FA thread.  Do you think they can improve the defense and running game -- in particular the first and 2nd round?    Or do you think they have to scratch the whole thing and start from scratch?

 

I think they need to go G and RB in the first two rounds with the D being picked up by free agency

[Mania]

I believe Mayfield's passing chart is next-level, inconsistent mechanics or not.

 

 

That said, I got bored and went through the college passing stats of every QB selected in the first two rounds in the past 10 years (plus a few in the third and fourth). No QB managed to achieve a 70% collegiate career record, but out of the 43 QBs I looked at six did better than 70% in their final season (Mayfield managed 70.5%):
Andrew Luck
RG3
Brandon Weeden
Russell Wilson
Teddy Bridgewater
Geno Smith

At first blush that's a 50% strike rate, but all three of the duds on that list were from the Big 12 (and the other three are quality QBs, Bridgewater's injury aside). I'm not usually a college stats guy (I get that schemes and personnel vary hugely, and that the trend is only the trend until it's broken - at which point it's onto the next trend) but I thought that dichotomy was interesting.

And fwiw, five QBs went below 60% through their collegiate careers, as well as in their final season (Josh Allen is 56.2% and went 56.3% this previous season gone by):
Chad Henne
Josh Freeman
Jake Locker
Christian Hackenberg
Matt Ryan (a really weird name on a list like that, but his BC career stats were 59.9%).

Sam Bradford and DeShone Kizer did better than 60% in their careers but fell below that mark in their final seasons, while Matt Stafford, Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Mallett were the opposite (better in their final seasons, but below 60% in their college careers). Again those stats on their own don't have to mean anything and I haven't gotten around to seeing Allen's tape yet, but that's a watermark I got curious about.

 

 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, carex said:

 

I think they need to go G and RB in the first two rounds with the D being picked up by free agency

I’m looking for defensive help - Smith, Vea, Payne, Hurst - in the 1st, and RB - Guice, Michel, Johnson, Jones, Chubb - in the 2nd.  

 

Guard would be nice, but it seems like our options are more limited at 13.  I also think that (most of?) those defensive guys might do more to improve the team (specifically the run game) than a G.  I could well be wrong of course.  

 

The third round is more up in the air for me.  It’s possible we take our chances that one of those backs drops to our 3rd rounder (or another back we really like, though I don’t know who), but I could see going with receiver, oline help, or TE.  Wild cards, IMO, would be corner and OLB - both positions we seem in pretty good shape, but both extremely important and with untested/unproven depth.  

 

I’ve said before, but my fear is the FO might have over inflated opinions of certain positions, such as - DE with McGee/Lanier/McClain, RB with Perine/Thompson/Bibbs/Marshall, or TE with Reed/Davis.  

[carex]

9 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I’m looking for defensive help - Smith, Vea, Payne, Hurst - in the 1st, and RB - Guice, Michel, Johnson, Jones, Chubb - in the 2nd.  

 

Guard would be nice, but it seems like our options are more limited at 13.  I also think that (most of?) those defensive guys might do more to improve the team (specifically the run game) than a G.  I could well be wrong of course.  

 

The third round is more up in the air for me.  It’s possible we take our chances that one of those backs drops to our 3rd rounder (or another back we really like, though I don’t know who), but I could see going with receiver, oline help, or TE.  Wild cards, IMO, would be corner and OLB - both positions we seem in pretty good shapen but both extremely important and with untested/unproven depth.  

 

I’ve said before, but my fear is the FO might have over inflated opinions of certain positions, such as - DE with McGee/Lanier/McClain, RB with Perine/Thompson/Bibbs/Marshall, or TE with Reed/Davis.  

 

well, I think you might have a deflated opinion of some positions like DE forgetting Allen and Ionaddis.  THe Redskins have places with actual needs like G, RB(we have good depth could use a better starter) NT and if something happens where we can't sign people ILB.  We don't need to be looking at spots where we just trying to upgrade from okay to great

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, carex said:

 

well, I think you might have a deflated opinion of some positions like DE forgetting Allen and Ionaddis.  THe Redskins have places with actual needs like G, RB(we have good depth could use a better starter) NT and if something happens where we can't sign people ILB.  We don't need to be looking at spots where we just trying to upgrade from okay to great

I consider Allen and Ioannidas our starting DTs in our Nickel package.  On top of that, we saw what happened when those guys went out - the wheels fell off on D.  They need support and capable backups.  So no, I don’t think I’m underrating them.  

 

On the other hand, when we lost an olineman (and then six more or whatever), we didn’t see a massive drop in our ypc, so I’ve got bolstering the dline as more crucial than LG.  Yes, our ground game needs to take a big step forward, but I’m not sure what will help the most - a new LG, a better back, a better TE, or what.  I’m leaning toward RB, then TE, then LG, priority-wise.  We also need depth on the line.  

 

With that said, I’m not necessarily looking for a DT.  A NT would be great (maybe better), as well as a DE to compete with the guys we have.  Hopefully we can add a dlineman that has some versatility (and the talent to start.  We have to improve the run D.  

 

Not sure about your last sentence - shouldn’t we be looking to improve all areas?  Isn’t upgrading from Perine/Kelley and Hood (at NT) fit your okay to great idea?

 

Maybe you’re just saying LG is more important because we don’t have one (unless you count Catalina and Kalis).  I can get on board with that, but they could always sign Long or Bergstrom at C and move Roullier to G.  Or they could bring in a cheaper vet or find a G in the 3rd (or late rounds like Roullier).  

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to add a stud LG - my primary focus is upgrading the lines - I just don’t think there will be a viable option in the 1st... or at least not one that grades higher than the defenders likely to be available.  

 

Probably all a moot point as they’ll go with Rudolph.

 

[carex]

I'm not sure how much a TE would help our running game as it seems to me our most basic running plays are up the gut

[LuRedskins]

14 minutes ago, carex said:

I'm not sure how much a TE would help our running game as it seems to me our most basic running plays are up the gut

 

Becuase they can’t run wide when the TEs completely miss blocks or get blown up back into the RB.

[carex]

19 minutes ago, LuRedskins said:

 

Becuase they can’t run wide when the TEs completely miss blocks or get blown up back into the RB.

 

they're taking the ball and running straight to the center of the line, not taking a proper angle for an outside run

[Est.1974]

16 hours ago, carex said:

 

I think they need to go G and RB in the first two rounds with the D being picked up by free agency

 

For me all bets are off for now in the first until the QB **** storm clears, but I'm sure after last years 1-2-3 on D, this year will be more high end O talent, with both WR and RB within the first three picks. Other than Norwell, who's looking at a 50mil+ contract in FA, I can't yet see another FA on O I'd really chase after. 

 

 

[skinsOLfan]

I see many sleeping on Arie Koundio as a possible starter at LG, he played well down the stretch and kept improving weekly. I suspect that is why I'm seeing reports saying the redskins might part ways with Spencer Long.

Also we just resigned Orlando Franklin to a futures contract and I have a feeling Arie may take a jump up in play like Morgan Moses and Trent Murphy did.

 

[clskinsfan]

On 1/19/2018 at 11:22 AM, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

No idea if we'll be picking a QB, but I'm sure Gruden is going to want both a WR and RB fairly early in this draft. Can't see viable options in FA at all.

 

Landry is the cream of the FA WR crop IMO.

[Est.1974]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 

Landry is the cream of the FA WR crop IMO.

 

I agree, but he's after Davante Adams type money. No thanks on that.

[Skins199021]

If we signed Poe, I'd love to trade back to 20 (while picking up a 2nd of course) and drafting Taven Bryan to play DE, and a versatile guy.

 

Allen, Poe, and Bryan be a great start to a defense

[skinny21]

17 hours ago, carex said:

 

I think they need to go G and RB in the first two rounds with the D being picked up by free agency

I realize now that (I assume) you’re factoring in Cousins leaving, and so we could afford add a dlineman in FA and address oline in the 1st.  My bad.  

4 hours ago, carex said:

I'm not sure how much a TE would help our running game as it seems to me our most basic running plays are up the gut

If by up the gut you mean between the tackles, then yes.  A TE would help because we often saw ours letting their assignments make plays off the edge, even on dive plays.  We need a TE that can at least slow those outside defenders.  I’ve become a broken record on this front, so I’ll leave it at this - I believe a well rounded TE could be a big asset for us, in the run game, PA passing and non PA pass game.  

 

57 minutes ago, skinsOLfan said:

I see many sleeping on Arie Koundio as a possible starter at LG, he played well down the stretch and kept improving weekly. I suspect that is why I'm seeing reports saying the redskins might part ways with Spencer Long.

Also we just resigned Orlando Franklin to a futures contract and I have a feeling Arie may take a jump up in play like Morgan Moses and Trent Murphy did.

 

We’re sleeping on him for good reason.  You’re right that we shouldn't completely write him off, but I don’t think we should be content to roll with him penciled in as the starter.  I think they’re willing to let Long walk because of Roullier and because Long isn’t great at anchoring or drive blocking.  They probably also realize that guys like Roullier, Catalina, Kalis and Kouandijo aren’t much of a drop off from Long/Lauvao, if at all, and they’re, younger, far cheaper and have higher ceilings.  

 

 

I think my ideal scenario (if we re-sign Cousins and Brown, and maybe even if we don’t), is:

Round 1:  Take the top defender available (hopefully dline).  If a few are there they like, look to trade back a few spots first.  

Round 2:  Take their favorite back.  If they think they can trade back a bit and still get a back they really like, go for it.  

Round 3:  Top TE available.  If they don’t like the options, either trade back or take the top interior lineman, backer or receiver.  

Round 4 on:  Fill the remaining holes (including depth) the best they can with BPA.  Make sure to grab a qb to (try to) develop.  

 

 

Hopefully you’d wind up with a starter on D that can help stop the run, a starting back, a starting TE, a developmental QB, and competition at receiver, G/C and ILB.  At that point, hopefully you’ve improved the ground game and the D’s run stopping (2 of our weakest areas), and added some competition/depth at receiver, oline, etc.  

[Mr. Sinister]

29 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

If we signed Poe, I'd love to trade back to 20 (while picking up a 2nd of course) and drafting Taven Bryan to play DE, and a versatile guy.

 

Allen, Poe, and Bryan be a great start to a defense

 

Can we rely on Allen? Getting hurt like that so quickly, along with his other history and the destructive nature of that position, im not sure

[carex]

38 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I realize now that (I assume) you’re factoring in Cousins leaving, and so we could afford add a dlineman in FA and address oline in the 1st.  My bad.  

If by up the gut you mean between the tackles, then yes.  A TE would help because we often saw ours letting their assignments make plays off the edge, even on dive plays.  We need a TE that can at least slow those outside defenders.  I’ve become a broken record on this front, so I’ll leave it at this - I believe a well rounded TE could be a big asset for us, in the run game, PA passing and non PA pass game.  

 

 

 

No, not necessarily.  The Skins will need to find a way to get a few guys as free agents no matter what, simply because they have a ton of free agents and seven draft picks

 

9 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Can we rely on Allen? Getting hurt like that so quickly, along with his other history and the destructive nature of that position, im not sure

 

it is to soon to start that stuff

[fordranger76]

41 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

If we signed Poe, I'd love to trade back to 20 (while picking up a 2nd of course) and drafting Taven Bryan to play DE, and a versatile guy.

 

Allen, Poe, and Bryan be a great start to a defense

I would go with Sheldon Richardson over Poe but I love the later Bryan pick. I think he is the 3rd best lineman in this draft for 3-4 and could really surprise some people.

[Mr. Sinister]

1 minute ago, carex said:

 

No, not necessarily.  The Skins will need to find a way to get a few guys as free agents no matter what, simply because they have a ton of free agents and seven draft picks

 

 

it is to soon to start that stuff

 

It's to early to make a definitive statement, which I clearly didn't.

 

As for a legitimate concern? Never too early