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Curious case of Josh Doctson M.E.T. , (3-29-17, 100%)


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21 hours ago, DC9 said:

 

Well, my statement was as broad as yours referencing the double-teaming of Ross and Armstrong... 

 

I'm trying to ween you off of bullying people around in this thread with incorrect facts.  Cause I hate bullies and you know how I get ;)

 

And Doctson was that wide open because it was zone coverage and it was like his 5th snap in the NFL... :rofl89:

 

The Cowboys made the same mistakes with Geronimo Allison.

 

HINT HINT

 

I am sorry, I just have never seen a pattern of top rated rookie WRs often going uncovered early in their careers. It's usually more that the D has no tape on them.  I think the answer is... the D was focused on DeSean, probably were coached up to be aware of him going deep, and leaving Josh.  Here is hint for you. Brandon Carr. Make sure to turn up the volume.

 

http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/videos/HIGHLIGHT-Josh-Doctsons-57-Yard-Catch/133f3643-6023-4821-a934-33799712dfc5

 

I saw him struggle to hit DeSean deep and his stats show what my eyes saw. He even threw hail mary's out of the back of the end zone... lets just leave it at differing expectations.

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4 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

 

I am sorry, I just have never seen a pattern of top rated rookie WRs often going uncovered early in their careers. It's usually more that the D has no tape on them.  I think the answer is... the D was focused on DeSean, probably where coached up to be aware of him going deep, and leaving Josh.  Here is hint for you. Brandon Carr. Make sure to turn up the volume.

 

http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/videos/HIGHLIGHT-Josh-Doctsons-57-Yard-Catch/133f3643-6023-4821-a934-33799712dfc5

 

Look, I know Kirk is the guy, and that your beef. I saw him struggle to hit DeSean deep and his stats show what my eyes saw. He even threw hail mary's out of the back of the end zone.  4 deep balls to DeSean after all the years to build chemistry with him... lets just leave it at differing expectations.

 

So you have stats on Desean's catch percentage at various distances?  We have Kirk's completion percentage at various distances, and it is near tops in the NFL for balls thrown 31+ yards in the air.  If presented with evidence to the contrary, I will be happy to agree with you.

 

But all you've given so far is the stat that Jackson's 40+ yard receptions decreased sharply.  But 40+ yard receptions is a measure of explosive plays, not strictly deep balls.  As an extreme example, if Jackson takes a WR screen 40 yards, it's a 40 yard reception even though the ball went 0 yards in the air.  So the fact that Jackson's 40+ yard receptions declined last year could just as easily be attributable to his declining explosiveness.  And you immediately conclude that it's Kirk's inaccuracy.  What if Kirk was highly accurate, but just targeted Jackson on deep balls less often this year than in years past?  That would also be consistent with the data.

 

All I know is that Kirk's deep ball accuracy was quite high this year, and likely among the best in the NFL.  I checked Roethlisberger, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Dalton, and only Brees had a higher deep ball (31+ air yards) accuracy than Cousins this year.  And Brees didn't attempt any 40+ yard passes, so it's not a completely fair comparison, since completion percentage decreases as distance increases.

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1 hour ago, Master Blaster said:

Some of you all are sleeping on Crowder a bit.  He doesn't have the pure speed like DJax, but as an overall receiver I think he is better and obviously much cheaper. 

 

I'm not sleeping on Crowder at all, but lets get serious. Crowder is a Slot receiver. He is 2 inches shorter then the 5'10 DeSean Jackson, he is not as fast or done well playing on the outside like Desean has. He is great at what he's good at and that's how you can create a good team by identifying what players are  good at and playing to that strength while finding guys who can do what they can't do. Desean is an outside WR, we need to replace that with an outside WR and leave Jamison alone in the slot. IMO

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1 hour ago, elkabong82 said:

Call me crazy, but a receiving corp. of Doctson, Crowder, Britt/Stills, Reed, and Davis is one that can produce if we move on from both our FA WRs.

 

 

Okay I will, you crazy. Imo, anyone counting on Josh to play this year could very well and likely will be disappointed. I'm all for Josh producing but I'm haunted with the knowledge there is at least a 50% chance he will never play again. Take him out that equation and your WRs are Crowder and Kenny Britt or Kenny Still? Puke. Do not like that at all and don't think we will be effective on offense if that's what we are putting on the field.

 

Why are people even talking about Kenny Stills? First he's going to the West Coast and been saying that all offseason. Second he isn't very good. His catch rate is horrible and drops a lot of passes. He is young, but he's never had a 1000 yard season and he's two years removed from his best year. Personally I do not want that here and only see that as a mistake signing. Britt got his head on straight finally last season and has all the tools to be a superstar in the league but never realized that. I understand why some might want him but he's 29 before the start of this year so if your going to go after an old FA receiver I'd much rather have one of our guys back before going there.

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18 hours ago, elkabong82 said:

 

So your argument about Desean was that Kirk consistently failed to hit him deep.

 

You chose to ignore 2014 as an aberration, while others may use that to form future expectations.  I thought DeSean's catches over 40 yards seemed a fair stat to use to support what I saw. 

 

I really don't care about Kirks numbers to Harris or Reed or Garcon deep, not to mention they may have been lofty because I think those other guys benefited from DeSean.  Staying on topic, like on the deep ball to Doctson. 

 

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20 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

Okay I will, you crazy. Imo, anyone counting on Josh to play this year could very well and likely will be disappointed. I'm all for Josh producing but I'm haunted with the knowledge there is at least a 50% chance he will never play again.

 

Where exactly did you unearth this information???

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27 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

 

And you failed to disprove that.

 

edit

 

When you say Kirk ranks among the best at deep ball accuracy, I wish someone could revisit that after removing YAC from the stats. I think it would be wise to do so, to truly target deep ball accuracy.  I think Kirk took a step back in deep ball accuracy this past year.  It was easiest seen to me with DeSean, and Hail mary's out of the back of the endzone.

 

Kirk had a monster year and dominated, but not at everything.  

 

Kirk Cousins was #1 in air yards - passing yards minus yards after the catch. He was also #1 in air yards per attempt. Here is the link.

 

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2016/

 

I agree Kirk missed some wide open guys, and in some bad situations. For example, had he just hit one of the 3 missed easy TDs against dallast the first game we win. Having said that, overall he did much better than some are giving him credit for. And he got better as the season went on. Some keep saying he is  product of the WCO. But when you see numbers like this, it tells a different story.

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I still see this as a player who got hurt and put on injured reserve.  That's it.  Just because the coaches didn't send us all through medical school with a thorough explanation, we think the kid has one foot in the grave.

 

It's not the first time a coach hasn't been able to fully explain an injury or give an exact time table of return.  Unless you tear everything including PCL, or your leg almost falls off like Bridgewater, you should expect a player to return after a full year.  So I expect to see him running around in camp.

 

If not, that sucks. Our WR position would suffer a bit. No matter how mysterious this thing seems, I still think it's important to keep Garcon tho.  And yeah, a lot of people are forgetting about crowder.

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1 hour ago, Bonez3 said:

 

Where exactly did you unearth this information???

 

Read about Achilles injuries. Some places to start

 

http://lermagazine.com/article/return-to-football-after-achilles-tendon-rupture

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sportsdoc/Achilles-Injuries-on-rise-in-NFL.html

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-achilles-rupture-tear-steve-smith-arian-foster-cameron-wake-injuries-/1a5bxld2mzwe41x9umf0lq1d6h

 

Before you or anyone else comes back and says "Oh well Josh didn't rupture his" yes I know. Not the point. Point is before many people tear the achilles they injure the tendon. Josh injured his tendon in July, came back and injured it again as we all know.

 

When you see varying reports about this injury and the chances these players come back to the NFL (70% do) let alone the players coming back to pre injury playing ability (less then 50% do this) I honestly don't understand how anyone is seriously planning the best possible outcome will occur with either Josh or Junior.

 

Sure that could happen and but its equally sure that could not happen (see Junior last season) at best to me this is a coin flip situation with either guy. And that means it would be irresponsible to plan on the best case scenario happening for us like we did last year with the running game and how we ignored that because best case then was Jones played well and we know he didn't.

 

It's time that these guys planned to hope the best case happens but be prepared for the the worst case happening

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So, you assimilated three articles and came up with an arbitrary number? Got it

 

First article is only regards to ruptured tendons, so to discredit that statement before it is made simply doesn't apply. In fact, the articles cites that the 'prodromal period may be opportunity to prevent future ruptures'. If anything, the article would support what has transpired in Doctson's case. 

 

The second article was the equivalent of an op ed piece that again focused on ruptures and only mentioned in passing the tendonosis as a possible etiology. Hardly compelling to come up with 50/50 rule.

 

Lastly, again, nothing to due with Doctson's case and only ruptures, but curious all the same as the physician cites 'dudes out of shape' at risk for tears. Quality usage of medical terminology.

 

So 50/50 ehh? got it

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1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

Kirk Cousins was #1 in air yards - passing yards minus yards after the catch. He was also #1 in air yards per attempt. Here is the link.

 

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2016/...

 

Nice stat pull, thanks!  I agree he got better as the season went on. It matches what I saw, he got better late in year.   But one deep ball to DJax to every 4 games just seemed worthy of a deeper discussion, as we look at what we are going to do at WR next year. 

 

It will be very interesting to revisit those stats with DJax out injured / gone to free agency, to get a better feel for the DeSean factor, specifically what we have been told, that a premier deep threat opens up a lot of room for everyone else.

 

Siri create a reminder a year from now....

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12 minutes ago, Bonez3 said:

So, you assimilated three articles and came up with an arbitrary number? Got it

 

First article is only regards to ruptured tendons, so to discredit that statement before it is made simply doesn't apply. In fact, the articles cites that the 'prodromal period may be opportunity to prevent future ruptures'. If anything, the article would support what has transpired in Doctson's case. 

 

The second article was the equivalent of an op ed piece that again focused on ruptures and only mentioned in passing the tendonosis as a possible etiology. Hardly compelling to come up with 50/50 rule.

 

Lastly, again, nothing to due with Doctson's case and only ruptures, but curious all the same as the physician cites 'dudes out of shape' at risk for tears. Quality usage of medical terminology.

 

So 50/50 ehh? got it

 

 

Okay man your right, you think that Junior and Josh are locks to recover from these injuries and perform this upcoming season. Got it. How did that work out for us last year? Got it yet? Nope, bet you don't.

 

I appreciate you being hopeful about those guys, I am hopeful about those guys as well but hope is one thing and planning for something is completely different. You think that its a forgone conclusion we get any meaningful snaps from either of these guys at this point? I don't. It's a wait and see to me and just like last year injuries like these can and sometimes do reoccur, we've already seen both these guys injure these body parts multiple times. But you want to ignore that, got it.

 

I personally think that you need to read and understand that both these guys are fighting long uphill battles that can turn on an instant and we need to be planning to not have them more then pretending that we will have them. If we do that and they do play again then great, we have depth. If we plan on them playing and they don't then we are weak. Got it?

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Just now, bobandweave said:

 

 

Okay man your right, you think that Junior and Josh are locks to recover from these injuries and perform this upcoming season. Got it. How did that work out for us last year? Got it yet? Nope, bet you don't.

 

I appreciate you being hopeful about those guys, I am hopeful about those guys as well but hope is one thing and planning for something is completely different. You think that its a forgone conclusion we get any meaningful snaps from either of these guys at this point? I don't. It's a wait and see to me and just like last year injuries like these can and sometimes do reoccur, we've already seen both these guys injure these body parts multiple times. But you want to ignore that, got it.

 

I personally think that you need to read and understand that both these guys are fighting long uphill battles that can turn on an instant and we need to be planning to not have them more then pretending that we will have them. If we do that and they do play again then great, we have depth. If we plan on them playing and they don't then we are weak. Got it?

 Well, this is about the curious case of Josh Doctson, I never mentioned Gallete once in this thread. Keep exciting yourself about unproven prognosis percentages and drink that half empty kool aid.

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Just now, Bonez3 said:

 Well, this is about the curious case of Josh Doctson, I never mentioned Gallete once in this thread. Keep exciting yourself about unproven prognosis percentages and drink that half empty kool aid.

 

Yup it sure is a post about Josh, and I'm sorry that you want to pretend that Junior and his injuries are not important but who told you that I was letting you control this anyway? You want to conversate with me and you started this with me so lets go.

 

See Junior last year was dealing with one of these injuries, he looked great everything was going swell and then bam. One day he's coming back and looking great and the next day it's well he's not gonna play this year. In a New York minute these injuries can creep up when it looks least likely and reappear. Why? Because had you read anything at all in the links I posted you just might have picked up on a strong point they all are making - these injuries tend to repeat themselves.

 

We seen it ourselves last year with another player on this very same team. I think his name was Josh Doctson, could be wrong but I'm not.

 

I hope I am wrong about this, I hope that it's better then 50-50 either guy plays for us again and never aggravates these injuries again. Do I think that's possible, sure I do. Do I think pretty much anything like a 75 yard FG is possible, sure I do. But do I think it's likely? No not at all.

 

My opinion, backed up by recent events, backed up by medical science, but still my opinion.

 

You never even said if your complaint was with this opinion itself or was it just me saying there is a 50-50 chances these guys are done? Since you want to throw around things like koolaide do you want me to believe your drinking the half full glass yourself and just in denial or what? What are you upset about?

 

 

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1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

 

Nice stat pull, thanks!  I agree he got better as the season went on. It matches what I saw, he got better late in year.   But one deep ball to DJax to every 4 games just seemed worthy of a deeper discussion, as we look at what we are going to do at WR next year. 

 

It will be very interesting to revisit those stats with DJax out injured / gone to free agency, to get a better feel for the DeSean factor, specifically what we have been told, that a premier deep threat opens up a lot of room for everyone else.

 

Siri create a reminder a year from now....

Just FYI, you are still erroneously conflating 40+ yard receptions with deep balls.  If Desean Jackson takes a shovel pass from Kirk and picks up 40 yards of YAC, it counts as a 40 yard reception.  If Jackson takes a WR screen 40 yards (he hasn't done this in years), it counts as a 40 yard reception.  If he takes a slant pass 40 yards, it's a 40 yard reception.  None of these are deep balls.

 

The best data that I am aware of for actual deep balls is on the player's "splits" tab of their ESPN stats page.  On this page, you will see that in 2016, Jackson had 6 receptions on passes that traveled 31+ yards in the air.  In 2015, he had 4.  In 2014, he had 10.  If we look purely at passes thrown 40+ yards in the air, Jackson the difference between 2014 and 2016 for Jackson is just one catch.

 

Now, you may be thinking that we finally have our answer.  Unfortunately, the ESPN splits tab tells us only the number of receptions that were made on passes thrown at these different lengths.  It doesn't tell us how many such passes were thrown his way but not caught.  For example, suppose that in both 2016 and 2014, Kirk attempted 20 passes of 31+ yards to Jackson.  In that case, Kirk's accuracy on deep passes to Jackson was much better in 2014 than in 2016.  However, it's possible that Kirk attempted 10 passes of 31+ yards to Jackson in 2016, and 30 such passes in 2014.  In that case, he was much more accurate in 2016.

 

We don't have any definitive data on this.  However, Kirk's own "splits" tab can at least give us somewhat of an idea.  On Kirk's splits tab, you'll see both attempts and completions for varying distances thrown.  From Kirk's page, we can see that he was 11/25 (44%) in 2016 and 5/12 (41%) in 2014.  So we know from Kirk's stats that, in general, he was more accurate in 2016 than 2014 on deep balls as a whole.  However, it's possible that he was much more accurate to non-Jackson receivers than he was to Jackson.  But we don't have data to prove it (that I am aware of).  Either way, if you look at different NFL QBs' "splits" tabs, you'll see that 40+% completions on deep passes is remarkably high, so it is at least somewhat accurate to say that Kirk is a very good thrower of the deep ball.

 

Jacksons's Splits: http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/11283/year/2015

Cousins' Splits: http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14880/year/2014

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46 minutes ago, ncr2h said:

Just FYI, you are still erroneously conflating 40+ yard receptions with deep balls. ...

 

Jacksons's Splits: http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/11283/year/2015

Cousins' Splits: http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14880/year/2014

good post - thanks.

 

I actually was aware that DJax may have caught a bubble and got 40 yards out of it to skew that stat from all years. 40+ seemed an easy starting point to see if I had forgotten a lot of 40 yard catches of any variety this past year, knowing the stat would catch all deep air balls.

 

We need a DJax thread perhaps. Needed. He may be gone. This is Doct's thread. I think the recent sprints we saw, with follow up testing, will be very telling if he will be ready for OTAs or not. And perhaps telling if DJax is here.

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19 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

 

You chose to ignore 2014 as an aberration, while others may use that to form future expectations.  I thought DeSean's catches over 40 yards seemed a fair stat to use to support what I saw. 

 

I really don't care about Kirks numbers to Harris or Reed or Garcon deep, not to mention they may have been lofty because I think those other guys benefited from DeSean.  Staying on topic, like on the deep ball to Doctson. 

 

 

Except I didn't. I included it as part of Desean's average. Desean's 30. Expecting him to continue to match 13 of those catches when he never hit double digits prior save for his 2nd year, would be foolish. He was close to his average the past 2 seasons, and 1 of those he missed a bunch due to injury.  Kirk was 3rd in the NFL this year in passes of 40+ with 13 of them. That means 28 other starting QBs (Dalton tied 3rd) didn't connect deep with all players as often as Desean alone did in 2014. Matt Ryan was king of the deep ball this season, connecting on 17, yet Julio Jones only had 5 catches of 40+ and none of his other receivers had more than that. So yeah, that 13 for DJax is an aberration and ridiculous to expect it as the norm.

 

You also didn't consider that 40+ is just how long a catch went for, so successful screens and medium passes that got broken for more are part of the stat, and in 2014 Desean was still good at screen passes, this season he wasn't. 

 

Kirk's numbers show your confirmation bias. You believe you saw Desean missed a bunch and that must mean Kirk is bad at throwing to him, when in reality Desean has only been connected with for 40+ an average of 6 times per year over his career with multiple teams and multiple QBs. Kirk's numbers for deep ball accuracy are among the best, which means most QBs miss deep more often than he does. But those ESPN highlights don't show the misses.

 

So either you're expectations are unrealistic with the deep ball connections, or Cousins, top 5 in deep ball accuracy, 3rd in deep ball completions, somehow can't hit Desean, even though the number of connections are just below his career average. You should know it's the first one.

 

Crap, this is a Doctson thread. Well I liked how Kirk connected with him deep when healthy. I think he could do great things if he stays healthy. 

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15 minutes ago, elkabong82 said:

So either you're expectations are unrealistic with the deep ball connections, or Cousins, top 5 in deep ball accuracy, 3rd in deep ball completions, somehow can't hit Desean, even though the number of connections are just below his career average. You should know it's the first one.

 

I agree, expecting ~ one deep ball to him in the air completed per game was my expectation and obvious grossly unrealistic, despite Kirk's strengths you very well documented. It seems others expectations were likely closer to 4 per year.  For the money he will ask, 1 deep ball completed a month is not worth it; unless Josh's injury woes continue through spring,  and we are desperate for help at wide out and the best available free agents... are ours.

 

Somehow he couldn't hit DeSean - yep that gets my vote. Its a tiny data size, so lets not belabor it.

 

Let's get back to Doctson talk, and not derail this thread further.

 

 

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21 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

 

I am sorry, I just have never seen a pattern of top rated rookie WRs often going uncovered early in their careers. It's usually more that the D has no tape on them.  I think the answer is... the D was focused on DeSean, probably were coached up to be aware of him going deep, and leaving Josh.  Here is hint for you. Brandon Carr. Make sure to turn up the volume.

 

http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/videos/HIGHLIGHT-Josh-Doctsons-57-Yard-Catch/133f3643-6023-4821-a934-33799712dfc5

 

I saw him struggle to hit DeSean deep and his stats show what my eyes saw. He even threw hail mary's out of the back of the end zone... lets just leave it at differing expectations.

 

The play action was flowing that way as was the roll... that's usually going to help.  The play design was excellent.

 

Reed and Davis were left all alone on similar play designs throughout the year.

 

Jay knows what he's doing.

 

It's also clear to see Desean giving up on routes on all-22s.

 

Notice he did a better job hitting Crowder and PG.

 

Back to Doctson... hope he can contribute, lol

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23 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

 

My opinion, backed up by recent events, backed up by medical science, but still my opinion.

 

You never even said if your complaint was with this opinion itself or was it just me saying there is a 50-50 chances these guys are done? Since you want to throw around things like koolaide do you want me to believe your drinking the half full glass yourself and just in denial or what? What are you upset about?

 

 

 

I didn't have a complaint, I simply asked where did you unearth the idea 'he had at least a 50% chance of never playing again'.

 

It was not backed by 'medical science', I read each of your articles and rebuttals above. In the end it was essentially proven that it was just 'your opinion'.

 

But, back to your original statement that 'at least 50% chance he'll never play again', you should feel comfortable laying 2-1 odds (should be even odds based on your medical facts). I'll be glad to make some friendly wagers laying those odds that indeed, Josh Doctson, will play again. That's all, and I like to think it's based on more 'medical science' than you have cited.

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I'm currently a 4th year Podiatry student preparing to graduate in May and have been interested in his case for a while.

 

To throw actual numbers into the discussion based on studies, 10% of patients who sustain an Achilles tendon rupture had a pre-existing Achilles issue. In my opinion, that does not lead to a bleak outlook for Doctson. Based on competitive athletes throughout all of sports, not just football, Achilles tendinopathy occurs in 24% with 18% in younger athletes. Tendon rupture occurs in 8.3% watering down the number more so. These numbers are taken from UpToDate which is a resource most medical professionals use. I think he has a chance to return fine if he has the proper approach.

 

I refer to the issue as Achilles tendinosis instead of tendinitis because the Achilles tendon is not like other tendons as it does not have a synovial sheath which is a lubricating cover over most tendons that can get inflamed causing the tendinitis. Without any history or information on his case but since reports are most of Doctson's studies are unremarkable, the problem he could be having is biomechanical. He could have Equinus which is a limitation in the ankle to bend upwards or dorsiflex. Due to this, he would have pain and discomfort. Yes, rest and stretching will help with his discomfort, but it is not addressing the anatomical issue. He would need support and orthotics which I would hope the team has recognized by now. Again, I know nothing about the case, but something like this gets missed a lot.
 

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16 hours ago, SkinsKin26 said:

I'm currently a 4th year Podiatry student preparing to graduate in May and have been interested in his case for a while.

 

To throw actual numbers into the discussion based on studies, 10% of patients who sustain an Achilles tendon rupture had a pre-existing Achilles issue. In my opinion, that does not lead to a bleak outlook for Doctson. Based on competitive athletes throughout all of sports, not just football, Achilles tendinopathy occurs in 24% with 18% in younger athletes. Tendon rupture occurs in 8.3% watering down the number more so. These numbers are taken from UpToDate which is a resource most medical professionals use. I think he has a chance to return fine if he has the proper approach.

 

I refer to the issue as Achilles tendinosis instead of tendinitis because the Achilles tendon is not like other tendons as it does not have a synovial sheath which is a lubricating cover over most tendons that can get inflamed causing the tendinitis. Without any history or information on his case but since reports are most of Doctson's studies are unremarkable, the problem he could be having is biomechanical. He could have Equinus which is a limitation in the ankle to bend upwards or dorsiflex. Due to this, he would have pain and discomfort. Yes, rest and stretching will help with his discomfort, but it is not addressing the anatomical issue. He would need support and orthotics which I would hope the team has recognized by now. Again, I know nothing about the case, but something like this gets missed a lot.
 

In your opinion, do you think Doctson has more than a 50% chance of coming out of his medically induced coma without being permanently paralyzed by homesickness?

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